新华社北京8月26日电 综述｜美关税政策拖累日本多行业 新华社记者李诗萌 日本财务省近日发布的贸易统计数据及主要上市公司财报显示，美国关税政策对日本经济产生显著 负面影响，汽车及零部件、钢铁、化工等多个行业利润严重缩水，中小企业普遍担忧美国加征关税将引 发减产等连锁反应。 数据显示，日本对美国汽车及零部件等出口明显下滑，导致日本7月对美出口额同比下降10.1%至 1.73万亿日元（1美元约合147日元），连续4个月同比下降。由于日美贸易协议有关将输美汽车及汽车 零部件关税下调至15%的内容尚未实施，目前日本输美汽车仍面临高达27.5%的关税。受此影响，7月日 本对美汽车出口额同比下降28.4%至4220亿日元，出口量同比减少3.2%至12.35万辆。 日本经济新闻社日前对东京证券交易所主板市场中1069家企业进行的统计结果显示，美国加征关税 给日本多个行业造成广泛影响，今年第二季度上述企业合计净利润时隔3年出现下降，同比减少12%至 12.3万亿日元。其中，汽车及零部件行业受损最严重，二季度利润下滑约9800亿日元，降幅为45%。本 田因关税成本大幅增加，净利润下降50%。 受美国关税政策和市场疲软双重冲击， ...

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞 、赵宇 、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人 | 陈达飞 摘要 大类资产&海外事件&数据：美欧日制造业PMI反弹、美国扩大钢铝关税 发达市场多数上涨，商品价格多数下跌。 当周，标普500上涨0.3%，英国富时100上涨2.0%；10Y美债收 益率下行7.0bp至4.3%；美元指数下跌0.1%至97.72，离岸人民币升值至7.1712；WTI原油上涨1.4%至63.7 美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨1.1%至3373.6美元/盎司。 美国扩大钢铝关税、美欧公布正式贸易协议。 8月19日，美国称将扩大钢铝衍生品关税范围，407个产品 类别将被添加到衍生钢铝产品清单，征收50%的关税，涉及进口产品金额约1380亿美元。8月21日，美欧 公布贸易框架协议的细节，美对欧汽车及零部件关税降至15%。 鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔演讲放鸽，8月美欧日Markit制造业PMI反弹。 在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，鲍威 尔表示"风险平衡的转变可能需要调整政策"、"就业面临下行风险"，表态偏鸽；8月美欧日制造业PMI分 别反弹至53.3、50.5、49.9；日本7月核心CPI超预期强劲。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期 ...

中新社沈阳8月23日电 (记者宫旭)一列满载着55个40英尺集装箱电器、机械装备、日用品的中欧班列23 日从国家中欧班列(沈阳)集结中心驶出，标志着中欧班列"沈阳—别雷拉斯特"精品班列成功首发。 此次开通的精品班列实现运力优先保障，口岸优先换装，境外优先接车，确保货物高效流转，全程运输 时间压缩30%。精品班列还创新实施"铁路快速通关""先查验后装运"等监管模式，班列实现高效通关。 在服务质量上，实现货物全程运输可视化追踪，提高了物流的透明度和可控性。 沈阳市发展改革委相关负责人表示，该精品班列的成功首发，将为东北地区机械装备、汽车及零部件等 附加值高、时效性强的产品"走出去"，提供更加优质便捷的国际物流服务；也将为扩大辽宁乃至东北地 区与俄罗斯经贸合作，创造互利共赢、协同发展的新机遇。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 按照计划，该班列将通过满洲里口岸出境，直抵莫斯科别雷拉斯特物流中心，全程运输距离8000余公 里，运输时间为10天，实现了境内外"枢纽对枢纽"高效直达。 今年1月，沈阳获批国家中欧班列集结中心。自2017年9月开行至今，沈阳累计开行中欧班列数量突破 3870列，年均增速超过30%，进出口商品货 ...

Group 1 - The US-EU trade agreement imposes a 15% tariff on EU products entering the US, effective from August 7, which is significantly higher than the previous 10% tariff imposed by the US on EU goods [1][2] - The agreement includes commitments from the EU to invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products over the next three years, along with military equipment [1][6] - The agreement has faced criticism within the EU, with concerns that it primarily benefits the US and undermines EU interests, particularly in key sectors like automotive and pharmaceuticals [2][4][8] Group 2 - The US aims to restructure trade relations to achieve a trade surplus, support domestic re-industrialization, and alleviate fiscal pressures, which aligns with its broader economic goals [3][4] - The EU's acceptance of the agreement is largely driven by its political and security dependence on the US, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions [3][4] - The agreement's terms may exacerbate the EU's economic recovery challenges, as the high tariffs on EU exports could lead to reduced competitiveness in certain industries [4][5] Group 3 - The agreement has been described as a "political gesture" rather than a market-driven arrangement, with skepticism about the EU's ability to meet the investment and procurement commitments outlined [6][7] - The potential for increased US energy dependence and the impact on the EU's climate goals have raised alarms among EU officials and environmental advocates [6][8] - The ongoing negotiations and the ambiguity in the agreement's terms could lead to future trade disputes, particularly regarding agricultural products and other contentious sectors [9][10]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the **U.S. economy** and **China's trade dynamics**, particularly in relation to the **Belt and Road Initiative** and the impact of U.S. fiscal policies on global capital expenditure cycles. U.S. Economic Insights - U.S. fiscal policy is experiencing cyclical expansion, particularly during the third to sixth years of a presidential term, significantly influencing global capital expenditure cycles and indirectly affecting the global economy through domestic industry and U.S. stock performance [1][4] - Post-pandemic, U.S. consumer spending has reached historical highs, while the savings rate has dropped to historical lows, indicating a close relationship between personal consumption expenditures, fiscal policy, and stock market performance, suggesting a potential economic recession starting in 2027-2028 [1][6] - Employment in private education, healthcare services, leisure, and hospitality has significantly increased, while manufacturing and mining sectors have contracted, reflecting structural shocks from the pandemic and advancements in artificial intelligence [1][8][9] - The U.S. stock market is expected to have upward momentum before the midterm elections, but a significant downturn is anticipated between 2027 and 2030, coinciding with structural employment issues leading to a negative feedback loop in the economy [1][10] China Trade Dynamics - As of May 2025, exports to Belt and Road countries accounted for half of China's total exports, with growth rates significantly outpacing those to non-Belt and Road countries, highlighting the increasing support of the Belt and Road strategy for China's foreign trade [3][13] - In the first five months of 2025, China's export share slightly increased from 13.9% to 14.0%, with expectations of exceeding 14% for the entire year despite challenges such as U.S. tariffs [12] - The July 2025 import and export data showed strong performance, with exports reaching $321.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and imports at $223.54 billion, up 4.1% [14] - Key contributors to China's export growth include electromechanical products and high-tech products, with integrated circuits experiencing a 29.2% year-on-year increase in July, driven by global AI demand [16] Employment Trends in the U.S. - The U.S. unemployment rate has shown a slight increase compared to 2022, indicating potential recession signs, but the overall economic condition remains stable, suggesting a recession may not occur until 2027-2028 [7] - Employment growth has been notable in private education and healthcare sectors due to increased demand post-pandemic, while manufacturing and mining sectors have faced declines due to structural changes [8][9] Future Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain strength through 2026, with a significant downturn anticipated post-2027, emphasizing the importance of the current trading window [10] - China's trade performance is expected to face challenges in the second half of the year due to high base effects from the previous year, but the Belt and Road Initiative may continue to provide support [18] Additional Insights - Traditional export categories such as textiles, bags, and clothing have shown poor performance, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [19] - The U.S. continues to exert a drag on China's exports, while ASEAN and EU countries provide substantial support, with July exports to ASEAN and the EU growing by 16.6% and 9.24%, respectively [20]

Group 1 - The trade war initiated by Trump has severely impacted the global economy, with China's countermeasures leading to a shift in attitudes among various countries towards the U.S. [1][4][11] - The UK Chancellor, Reeves, has openly rejected U.S. requests to isolate China, labeling such actions as foolish and emphasizing the importance of maintaining contact with China [9][14][22]. - The U.S. has imposed significant tariffs on UK goods, including a 10% baseline tariff and a 25% tariff on UK automotive exports, which constitutes over 10% of the UK's total exports to the U.S. [22][24][26]. Group 2 - The UK's refusal to align with the U.S. against China reflects a broader recognition among nations that isolating a major economy like China is impractical and detrimental to their own interests [7][30][34]. - The response from the UK indicates a potential shift in the dynamics of international relations, where countries are reconsidering their alliances in light of U.S. actions [36][39]. - China's stance remains focused on cooperation and mutual benefit, rejecting the notion of being a pawn in U.S. geopolitical strategies [32][34].

Export Performance - In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up 1.4 percentage points from June, continuing the improvement trend since May[1] - Exports to ASEAN rose by 16.6% year-on-year, while exports to South Korea increased by 4.6%, marking a significant recovery[2] - Exports to the US saw a decline of 21.7%, deepening by 5.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a stronger impact from tariffs[2] Import Trends - Imports in July rose by 4.1% year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3.0 percentage points, driven primarily by recovering crude oil prices[1] - The trade surplus narrowed slightly to $98.24 billion in July, reflecting the dynamics of both exports and imports[1] - The contribution of processing trade intermediate goods and capital goods imports fell by 0.6 percentage points, indicating a cooling in these sectors[5] Market Outlook - The extension of the tariff relief period by the US is expected to marginally boost exports of electromechanical products and mid-range consumer goods[6] - The imposition of 15% tariffs on other major trading partners may enhance China's export price competitiveness but could also weaken demand from these economies[6] - The semiconductor and machinery sectors may face challenges due to increased tariffs on key supply chain partners like Mexico and Vietnam[6]

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 08 月 07 日 新关税形势下出口走强能否延续？ ——国际贸易数据点评（2025.7） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 原关税缓和期尾部我国 7 月出口同比再度回升；原油价格回暖带动进口增 速连续大幅改善。7 月出口（美元计价，下同）同比较 6 月再度上行 1.4 个百 分点至 7.2%，延续了 5 月以来出口连续改善的趋势，再度凸显中美 5 月中旬 达成的 90 天关税缓和期、以及美国对其他地区实施的缓和期尾部对我国出口 的总体拉动作用。近期美国关税形势进入新阶段，对华延长 90 天缓冲期，但 对其他主要经济体均采取更高税率，我国出口面临的新形势或更趋复杂多变。 原油价格回暖带动 7 月进口同比再度大幅改善 3.0 个百分点至 4.1%，当月货物 对美出口跌幅再度加深，对协同供给伙伴在缓和期末出口高增，对非美发 达经济出口跌多增少。7 月美国明确提出在 8 月结束对除我国以外地区的关税 缓和期并对转口贸易加征更高关税。这在逻辑上指向我国对协同供给伙伴的出 口可能在 7 月出现抢运以规避未来更高的关税风险，数据与逻辑匹配度较高， 7 月对东盟出口同比 16.6%，尽管小幅 ...

Group 1 - The new tariff policy by President Trump, originally set to take effect on August 1, has been postponed to August 7, with the tariff rates "basically determined" according to U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer [1][2] - Trump is expected to announce significant economic measures on August 6, which will be his first major action following a series of economic and geopolitical warnings [2] - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with India for continuing to purchase Russian oil, threatening "very significant" tariffs as punishment, which has led to a defensive response from Indian officials [3][4] Group 2 - The Indian stock market has shown signs of stress, with the BSE Sensex index dropping 0.38% and the rupee depreciating against the dollar amid concerns over potential U.S. tariffs [3] - The Sensex and Nifty indices fell again on August 6, with Sensex down 166 points, as Trump indicated plans to impose tariffs on specific industries, including semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, potentially raising drug tariffs to 250% [4] - Following Trump's executive order on July 31, trade partners will face adjustments in tariff rates, with new rates set to take effect on August 7 [5][6] Group 3 - The U.S. has announced a significant increase in tariffs on Swiss imports to 39%, up from a previously proposed 31%, raising concerns about potential job losses and order declines in Swiss industries [7] - Swiss officials, including President Keller-Sutter and Economy Minister Parmelan, have traveled to Washington to negotiate before the new tariffs take effect [7][8] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister is also in the U.S. seeking clarification and adjustments to tariff measures, as Japan's goods may face higher effective tax rates than the agreed 15% [8]

日本财务省数据显示，2024年日本对美国的出口总额为21万亿日元，其中汽车及零部件贡献了超过7.2万亿日元，约占三分之一。据日本汽车工业协会统 计，2024年日本对美国汽车出口量达137万辆，占该国汽车出口总量的30%以上。 本周，丰田汽车公司和本田汽车公司将陆续公布最新业绩数据。今年6月，日本汽车制造商们纷纷将美国出口价格削减了19%，创下2016年有记录以来的 最大价格降幅，以牺牲利润应对关税动荡并保持北美市场份额竞争力。 每经编辑｜金冥羽 据新华社援引《日本经济新闻》网站报道，日本时间6日上午，正在美国访问的日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正对记者表示，美国方面公布的8月7日开始征收 关税的官方公告与此前日美双方达成的协议不一致，将使日本面临更高关税，日本要求美方予以纠正。 7月22日，美国与日本达成贸易协议，日本适用的"对等关税"税率将为15%。由于"对等关税"包含所谓10%的"基准关税"4月起已在征收，8月起日本适用的 税率将从10%提高到15%。 值得一提的是，7月23日，日本首相石破茂在直播记者会上称，已得到美方保证，如果未来美国对半导体等对经济安全至关重要的物资征收关税，日本不 会得到比其他国家或地区" ...