文 ： 华创证 券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信 SuperSummerSnow ） 核心观点 综合五类外需领先指标的指示来看，全球外需短期（四季度）或面临调整压力，明年上半年温和回升的概率较高。 我们统计的 20 个领先指标中，能预示到明年数 据的有 11 个，其中， 7 个指标指示明年 Q1 或整个上半年外需或趋向回升， 1 个指标显示明年 Q1 或趋平、 Q2 开启回升， 1 个指标显示欧元区库存周期明年初 或震荡，仅有 2 个指标显示明年有回落压力，但都是聚焦于"局部"的指标，包括行业协会预测电子产业链贸易增速明年微幅下滑，市场数据预测明年全球汽车销量 增速回落。 但，需要警惕的是， 确实存在外需较大幅偏高于领先指标当前水平通常指示的中枢水平的情况，可能预示存在需求前期透支后回调的风险，后续需要 密切关注。 细节详见图表 43 。 报告摘要 先抑后扬—— 20 个领先指标看外需走势 对于明年宏观环境而言，外需好坏至关重要，其直接影响中国出口，也会影响 PPI 的上行动能（ 《出口价格能带动 PPI 回升吗？——基于历史二者背离复盘的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianyuan Dike's stock price has shown a significant increase of 36.86% year-to-date, despite recent fluctuations in trading performance [2] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 30, Tianyuan Dike's stock price rose by 2.16% to 16.06 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.51 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.94%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 10.242 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, the stock has increased by 36.86%, with a 3.68% rise in the last five trading days, a 2.78% decline over the last 20 days, and a slight 0.12% drop over the last 60 days [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Tianyuan Dike reported a revenue of 6.3 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.603 million CNY, which is a 19.75% increase compared to the previous year [3] Group 3: Shareholder and Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Tianyuan Dike has distributed a total of 285 million CNY in dividends, with 28.699 million CNY distributed over the past three years [4] - As of October 20, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased to 94,200, with an average of 5,795 circulating shares per shareholder, which is an increase of 3.30% from the previous period [3]

先抑后扬——20 个领先指标看外需走势 对于明年宏观环境而言，外需好坏至关重要，其直接影响中国出口，也会影响 PPI 的上行动能（《出口价格能带动 PPI 回升吗？——基于历史二者背离复盘 的启示》）。但，当前在关税冲击传导效果以及贸易政策反复摇摆的不确定性下， 对明年出口情况做出预测将变得更加困难，本文尝试从多个逻辑维度出发，寻 找外需的一系列领先指标，以期帮助把握明年出口基准。 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 先抑后扬——20 个领先指标看外需走势 核心观点：综合五类外需领先指标的指示来看，全球外需短期（四季度）或面 临调整压力，明年上半年温和回升的概率较高。我们统计的 20 个领先指标中， 能预示到明年数据的有 11 个，其中，7 个指标指示明年 Q1 或整个上半年外需 或趋向回升，1 个指标显示明年 Q1 或趋平、Q2 开启回升，1 个指标显示欧元 区库存周期明年初或震荡，仅有 2 个指标显示明年有回落压力，但都是聚焦于 "局部"的指标，包括行业协会预测电子产业链贸易增速明年微幅下滑，市场 数据预测明年全球汽车销量增速回落。但，需要警惕的是，确实存在外需较大 幅偏高于领先指标当前水平通常指示的中 ...

按出口品目看，半导体出口额为166.2亿美元，同比增长21.9%，连续两个月创下新高；显示器同比增加 1.3%，为19.2亿美元；手机零部件出口额减少23.6%，为10.7亿美元，成品出口额同比增加55.8%，为4.2 亿美元；计算机及周边设备减少10.1%，为14.7亿美元。 同期，ICT进口额同比增加10.4%，为137.8亿美元。由此，ICT贸易收支实现116.5亿美元顺差，规模创 下历史第二高。 当地时间10月14日，韩国科学技术信息通信部发布的数据显示，韩国9月信息通信技术（ICT）产品出 口额为254.3亿美元，同比增长14%，创下历史最高纪录。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong-listed company Changhong Jiahua has resumed trading and experienced a significant stock price increase of 23.91% following the announcement of its privatization plan by its parent company Sichuan Changhong [1][2] Group 1: Company Overview - Changhong Jiahua is a key subsidiary of Sichuan Changhong, primarily engaged in ICT products, solutions, and digital intelligent comprehensive services [1] - Despite the recent stock price surge, Changhong Jiahua's total market value is only 1.7 billion HKD, while its net assets exceed 2.8 billion RMB [1] Group 2: Market Context - There has been a notable trend of privatization among Hong Kong-listed companies, with 20 companies opting for this route in 2023 due to low trading volumes and diminished financing capabilities [2] - The latest company to complete its privatization is Jin'an Industrial, which achieved this on September 19, 2023 [2] Group 3: Challenges Faced - Changhong Jiahua's stock has consistently traded below its net asset value, making it difficult for major shareholders like Anjian Holdings to utilize the Hong Kong platform for capital operations [2] - The low trading activity has led many Hong Kong companies to consider privatization as a viable option to avoid the costs associated with maintaining a public listing [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong-listed company Changhong Jiahua has resumed trading and experienced a significant stock price increase of 23.91% following the announcement of its privatization plan by its parent company Sichuan Changhong [1][2] Group 1: Company Overview - Changhong Jiahua is a key subsidiary of Sichuan Changhong, primarily engaged in ICT products, solutions, and digital intelligent comprehensive services [1] - Despite the recent stock price surge, Changhong Jiahua's total market value is only 1.7 billion HKD, while its net assets exceed 2.8 billion RMB [1] Group 2: Market Context - The trading activity of Changhong Jiahua has been notably low, with six months in the first eight months of the year recording transaction volumes below 10 million HKD, and January's total transaction volume being merely 720,000 HKD [1] - In 2023, a total of 20 Hong Kong-listed companies have opted for privatization as a means to delist, primarily due to low trading volumes and the inability to effectively utilize the capital market [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - Companies in the Hong Kong market are increasingly choosing privatization as a strategy to exit, driven by factors such as diminished financing capabilities and the high costs associated with maintaining a public listing [2] - A representative from a previously delisted company noted that only top-tier companies attract funding in the Hong Kong market, and once a company loses investor interest, even favorable financing mechanisms become ineffective [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Changhong Jiahua (03991.HK) has resumed trading and experienced a significant stock price increase of 23.91% following the announcement of its privatization plan by its parent company Sichuan Changhong (600839) [1][2] - Sichuan Changhong holds a substantial stake in Changhong Jiahua, with 875 million ordinary shares and 1.116 billion convertible preferred shares, representing 60.13% and 100% of the respective total issued shares [2] - Despite a 9.76% year-on-year increase in revenue to approximately HKD 21.169 billion in the first half of 2025, Changhong Jiahua's overall gross margin decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 3.07% due to intense market competition [2] Group 2 - The stock performance of Changhong Jiahua has been poor, with a total market capitalization of only HKD 1.7 billion, while its net assets exceed RMB 2.8 billion as of June 30 [2] - The trading activity of Changhong Jiahua has been extremely low, with six months in the first eight months of the year recording transaction volumes below HKD 10 million [2][4] - Sichuan Changhong stated that the long-term low stock price of Changhong Jiahua makes it difficult to utilize the Hong Kong stock platform for capital operations, leading to the decision to privatize [4][6] Group 3 - The article notes that 20 Hong Kong companies have opted for privatization this year, indicating a trend among companies facing low trading volumes and challenges in maintaining their public listing [5][6] - The latest company to privatize is Jin'an Industrial, which completed its delisting on September 19, 2025, due to low trading levels and a lack of investor interest [7][8] - Companies choosing to privatize often cite reasons such as low stock liquidity, inability to raise funds through public markets, and the high costs associated with maintaining a public listing [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the privatization of Changhong Jiahua (03991.HK) by its parent company Sichuan Changhong (600839), highlighting the challenges faced by Hong Kong-listed companies in maintaining their public status due to low trading volumes and stock prices [1][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Changhong Jiahua is a significant subsidiary of Sichuan Changhong, primarily engaged in ICT products, solutions, and digital intelligent services [3]. - Sichuan Changhong holds 60.13% of Changhong Jiahua's ordinary shares and 100% of its convertible preferred shares, indicating a strong controlling interest [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Changhong Jiahua reported revenues of approximately HKD 21.169 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.76%, with a gross margin of 3.07%, down by 0.27 percentage points due to intense market competition [3]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was about HKD 181 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.16% [3]. Group 3: Market Conditions - Despite a recent stock price surge of 23.91%, Changhong Jiahua's total market capitalization remains only HKD 1.7 billion, while its net assets exceed RMB 2.8 billion [3]. - The trading activity of Changhong Jiahua has been notably low, with six months in the first eight months of the year recording trading volumes below HKD 10 million [3]. Group 4: Privatization Rationale - Sichuan Changhong stated that the privatization is necessary due to Changhong Jiahua's persistent low trading volume and stock price since its restructuring and listing in 2013, which has not improved even after moving to the Hong Kong main board [6]. - The privatization aims to reduce listing-related costs and leverage the resources of the controlling group to explore new development opportunities without affecting the financial status or operations of Changhong Jiahua [6]. Group 5: Industry Trends - The article notes that 20 Hong Kong-listed companies have opted for privatization this year, reflecting a broader trend of companies facing challenges in maintaining their public status due to low trading volumes and the inability to effectively utilize their listing for capital operations [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Changhong Electric Co., Ltd. announced the privatization plan for its subsidiary, Changhong Jiahua Holdings Co., Ltd., by its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hongtu Investment Co., Ltd., which will lead to the delisting of Changhong Jiahua from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2][4]. Financial Overview - As of December 31, 2024, Changhong Jiahua's total assets were approximately 16.73 billion yuan, with total liabilities of about 13.97 billion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 83.51% and net assets of approximately 2.76 billion yuan [2]. - For the fiscal year 2024, Changhong Jiahua reported revenue of approximately 36.48 billion yuan and a net profit of about 346 million yuan. For the first half of 2025, the unaudited revenue was approximately 19.48 billion yuan, with a net profit of around 167 million yuan [3]. Privatization Details - The privatization plan involves the cancellation of all planned shares, with a cash consideration of 1.223 HKD per share for the shareholders, excluding Sichuan Changhong's controlled shares [4]. - Following the privatization, Changhong Jiahua will issue new shares to the offeror to maintain the total number of shares consistent before and after the transaction [4]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued a no-objection letter regarding the privatization plan, which was announced on September 22, 2025 [4]. Strategic Implications - The privatization is expected to reduce the listing-related costs for Changhong Jiahua and allow for better resource allocation and planning under the umbrella of Sichuan Changhong Group, exploring new development opportunities [5]. - The ownership structure of Changhong Jiahua will remain unchanged post-privatization, and it is not anticipated to have a significant impact on the financial status or operations of Sichuan Changhong [5].

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Changhong's subsidiary, Changhong Jiahua, is set to be privatized by its controlling shareholder, Changhong Holdings Group, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hongtu Investment, which will acquire the remaining shares not controlled by Sichuan Changhong [2][5]. Group 1: Privatization Details - The privatization plan involves the acquisition of approximately 580 million ordinary shares held by other shareholders, representing about 39.87% of Changhong Jiahua's total ordinary shares and 22.57% of its total issued ordinary and convertible preferred shares [5]. - The proposed price for each share is HKD 1.223, totaling approximately HKD 709 million, which represents a premium of about 32.93% over the last trading day's closing price of HKD 0.920 [6]. - The average closing prices for the last 10, 30, 90, and 180 trading days were HKD 0.911, HKD 0.924, HKD 0.881, and HKD 0.764, with respective premiums of approximately 34.25%, 32.36%, 38.78%, and 60.17% [6]. Group 2: Business Context - Changhong Jiahua is a significant subsidiary of Sichuan Changhong, primarily engaged in ICT products, solutions, and digital intelligent comprehensive services [5]. - Since its restructuring and listing in 2013, Changhong Jiahua has experienced low trading volume, stock price, and liquidity, which have not improved despite its listing on the Hong Kong main board [5]. - The privatization aims to reduce listing-related costs and leverage the overall resources of Changhong Holdings Group for new development opportunities [5]. Group 3: Industry Trends - In recent years, several state-owned enterprises have completed the privatization of their Hong Kong-listed companies, indicating a trend towards consolidating operations and improving business efficiency [7]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has encouraged the disposal of underperforming listed companies through mergers and asset restructuring [8].