多元内容生态

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腾讯音乐-SW(01698):多元内容生态下凸显强劲变现能力
HTSC· 2025-08-13 03:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) [5][7] Core Views - TME's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations with revenues of 8.44 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, and adjusted net profit of 2.64 billion RMB, up 33% year-on-year, driven by the rapid growth of super members and strong performance in non-subscription businesses [1][2] - The company is expanding its content advantages in K-POP and film and television variety shows, and plans to acquire 100% of Ximalaya, which is expected to enhance its content ecosystem and support long-term growth [1][3] - TME's gross margin improved to 44.4% in Q2 2025, with expectations of continued upward trends in long-term profitability despite potential seasonal fluctuations in gross margin due to changes in revenue structure [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, online music revenue grew by 26.4% to 6.85 billion RMB, with subscription revenue increasing by 17.1% to 4.38 billion RMB and non-subscription revenue rising by 46.9% [2] - The number of paid users reached 124.4 million, with ARPPU slightly increasing to 11.7 RMB [2] Strategic Developments - TME acquired approximately 9.66% of SM Entertainment, becoming its second-largest shareholder, which is expected to strengthen TME's position in the K-POP market [3] - The planned acquisition of Ximalaya is anticipated to enhance user engagement and conversion rates, solidifying TME's leading position in the online music and audio market [3] Profitability Outlook - The report projects adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 to be 9.46 billion RMB, 10.61 billion RMB, and 12.22 billion RMB respectively, reflecting increases of 6.5%, 4.1%, and 9.5% [5][11] - The target price is set at 29.30 USD or 117.49 HKD, based on a 35x PE ratio for 2025 [5][11]