Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to the fading of policy expectations, shifting market focus towards fundamental supply and demand dynamics [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polysilicon market is currently experiencing an oversupply situation, with increasing inventory pressures. Weekly production is maintained at 31,000 tons, with October production expected to exceed 130,000 tons [2]. - Analysts predict that the southwestern production areas may reduce or halt production due to the dry season, while some northern manufacturers may increase or resume production. October is anticipated to be the peak production month for the year, with a subsequent decline expected [2][3]. - Polysilicon inventory has risen to 289,340 tons, indicating a lack of substantial improvement in the supply-demand balance, which limits the support for current spot prices [2]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - As of October 20, the main contract PS2511 closed at 50,340 yuan, down 3.66%. The mainstream market price for N-type dense polysilicon is reported to be between 47 to 53 yuan/kg [2]. - There is a significant divergence in market sentiment, with some analysts suggesting that if inventory continues to accumulate in November, prices may face downward pressure. Others believe that reduced production during the dry season could provide some support for prices [3]. - The market remains in a state of uncertainty, influenced by the interplay between strong policy expectations and weak fundamental realities, necessitating a rational approach to market fluctuations [3].