1月8日，多晶硅期货多个合约午后跌停，截至午盘收盘，主力2605合约报53610元/吨，下跌9%。 | 多晶硅 2601 | 54550 | -8.96% | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 ps2601 | | | | 多晶硅 2602 | 53135 | -8.99% | | 期货 ps2602 | | | | 多昌硅 2603 | 53430 | -8.99% | | 期货 ps2603 | | | | 多晶硅 2604 | 53555 | -9.00% | | 期货 ps2604 | | | | 多晶硅 2605 | 53610 | -9.00% | | 期货 ps2605 | | | | 多晶硅 2606 | 54805 | -8.99% | | 期货 ps2606 | | | | 多晶硅 2607 | 54990 | -8.99% | | 期货 ps2607 | | | | 多醋硅 2608 | 55180 | -9.00% | | 期货 ps2608 | | | | 多晶硅 2609 | 54605 | -9.00% | | 期货 ps2609 | | | | 多晶硅 2610 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 早上好，先来关注下美国总统特朗普的最新表态。 据央视新闻最新消息，特朗普8日再次就伊朗骚乱事件发出威胁，称如再有人员死亡，美国将对伊朗进 行"严厉打击"。 特朗普当天接受一家电台采访时说，美国正密切关注伊朗发生的骚乱事件，他不确定"是否一定要追究 某个人的责任"，但如果伊朗当局对相关人员死亡事件负有直接责任，"他们将付出惨痛的代价"。 据悉，伊朗多地发生骚乱，造成人员伤亡。特朗普2日威胁将就伊朗骚乱事件进行干涉。伊朗方面强 调，伊朗人民将通过彼此之间的对话与互动来解决自身问题，绝不允许任何形式的外来干预，并表示如 果美国采取冒险行动，伊朗会作出回应。 特朗普还表示，美国必须"拥有"整个格陵兰岛，而不仅仅是依据现有条约在当地行使军事和防务权利。 特朗普称，所有权本身具有无法通过租赁或条约获得的战略价值。 关于美联储主席人选，特朗普称"心中已经有了决定"，但没有透露最终人选。当被问及他的首席经济顾 问凯文·哈塞特时，特朗普称"我不想说"，但他形容哈塞特"无疑是我喜欢的人之一"。 值得注意的是，伊朗突发大范围断网。当地时间8日晚，伊朗 ...

早上好，先来关注下美国总统特朗普的最新表态。 据央视新闻最新消息，特朗普8日再次就伊朗骚乱事件发出威胁，称如再有人员死亡，美国将对伊朗进行"严厉打击"。 特朗普当天接受一家电台采访时说，美国正密切关注伊朗发生的骚乱事件，他不确定"是否一定要追究某个人的责任"，但如果伊朗当局对相关人员死亡事 件负有直接责任，"他们将付出惨痛的代价"。 据悉，伊朗多地发生骚乱，造成人员伤亡。特朗普2日威胁将就伊朗骚乱事件进行干涉。伊朗方面强调，伊朗人民将通过彼此之间的对话与互动来解决自 身问题，绝不允许任何形式的外来干预，并表示如果美国采取冒险行动，伊朗会作出回应。 特朗普还表示，美国必须"拥有"整个格陵兰岛，而不仅仅是依据现有条约在当地行使军事和防务权利。 特朗普称，所有权本身具有无法通过租赁或条约获得的战略价值。 关于美联储主席人选，特朗普称"心中已经有了决定"，但没有透露最终人选。当被问及他的首席经济顾问凯文·哈塞特时，特朗普称"我不想说"，但他形 容哈塞特"无疑是我喜欢的人之一"。 芝加哥商品交易所（CME）当地时间8日发出通知，上调贵金属品种履约保证金，这是其近一个月以来第三次发出此类通知。 值得注意的是，伊朗突发大范 ...

专题报告 2025-12-29 多晶硅：风控措施密集，情绪溢价压缩 报告要点： 综合来看，多晶硅期货当前正处于从情绪驱动向基本面定价切换的阶段。广期所的强力风控有 效抑制了非理性交易，为价格回归产业逻辑创造了条件。产业层面，减产与提价的尝试正在重 塑价格体系，但其可持续性仍取决于终端的接受度与企业减产的执行力度。在强监管环境下， 期货价格走势更可能围绕现货成交价格展开波动。若现货成交持续修复，期货价格或在现货上 方维持有限升水；若现货端再度转弱，期货价格亦有较高回落风险。总体而言，期货市场将从 "讲故事"阶段回到"算账"阶段，波动中枢由预期主导转向现实回归。 陈张滢 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新（联系人） 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材研究 | 多晶硅 12 月中旬，多晶硅期货盘面在较短时间内快速拉升，加权合约一度突破 6.2 万元/吨整数关口， 近月合约最高站上 6.3 万元/吨。对比现货端，多晶硅现货价格虽有小幅回升，但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to multiple factors, including supply contraction, rising costs, and policy expectations, rather than an increase in downstream demand [2][4][8] Group 1: Price Movements - Polysilicon futures reached a high of 61,235 CNY/ton on December 17, with a cumulative increase of 68% this year [1] - The current price of polysilicon N-type dense material is around 50 CNY/kg, while N-type re-investment material is approximately 51.5 CNY/kg [4] - The market is experiencing a disconnect between futures and spot prices, with spot prices remaining stable despite the rise in futures [4][8] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic polysilicon production dropped to about 115,000 tons in November, a decrease of approximately 14% month-on-month, primarily due to proactive production cuts by leading companies during the dry season [2] - The average operating rate in the polysilicon industry has fallen to 40%, with many second and third-tier companies halting production [6] - High inventory levels exceeding 300,000 tons are putting pressure on the market, with weak demand from downstream sectors [6] Group 3: Market Expectations and Policies - A recent meeting among 11 leading manufacturers emphasized production control and price stabilization, reinforcing market expectations for industry self-discipline and the establishment of a storage platform [2][3] - The establishment of a capacity integration acquisition platform is seen as a second wave of market sentiment boost, although details remain unclear [3][7] - The market is closely monitoring the potential announcement of a "debt-for-equity" acquisition and flexible capacity plans, which could further influence sentiment [7][9] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Current high premiums suggest strategies such as "selling futures and buying spot" or "registered warehouse delivery" to lock in basis profits [9] - Investors are advised to reduce leverage and implement strict stop-loss measures due to increased volatility in polysilicon futures [9]

总之，多晶硅空头已被彻底打爆——再有7个交易日，他们将彻底认输出局。虽然多晶硅现货只有5.2 万/吨，但市场上能够买得到的硅料，并不可以作为交割品，所以他们没有实物可以拿来交割。硅料价 格今后虽然未必能涨到8万，但多晶硅期货的价格完全有可能。 对于那些认为多晶硅期货价格终归要回归到接近现货价格的空头们来说，这是一个悲伤的故事，也是一 个为"认知"买单的故事。这个局相当复杂，就像历史上那些经典的商品期货多空大战一样，充满着谋划 与设计，猎杀与爆仓。现在回头看，多晶硅期货与反内卷、去产能或许没有任何关系，虽然在表象上， 多晶硅期货似乎给了这场反内卷以一个光伏产品涨上来的交代。而实际上，这就是一场彻头彻尾的金融 衍生品游戏。在这场零和博弈中，一些机构和一些个人赚得盆满钵满，当然他们的对手盘被洗劫一空， 倾家荡产。 以PS2512合约计算，如果在6月25日开始做多并持有至12月3日，纯价格收益率为87.7%，保证金交易的 收益率则高达877%！当然，对于那些充分掌握游戏规则、以及能够提前准确预判相关信息的人来说， 波段操作的收益，绝对不止八九倍——这仅仅需要不到半年时间。 12月3日，InfoLink周报公布的多晶硅 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The core prediction from Bank of America is that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates again during Powell's term, which ends in May 2026 [1][2] - The Federal Funds Rate is expected to remain in the range of 3.75% to 4.0% until the second half of 2026, when a new chair may initiate rate cuts [2] - Powell's cautious remarks after the October rate cut indicate that the threshold for a December rate cut has been raised, requiring data to justify such a move [1][2] Group 2: Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown has lasted for 40 days, with estimates suggesting it has reduced the U.S. GDP by 1.5% [2] - If the shutdown continues, it could negatively impact consumer spending during the upcoming holiday season, potentially leading to a contraction in Q4 economic growth [2] - Treasury Secretary has indicated that prolonged shutdown could halve the economic growth forecast for Q4 [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The market is currently in a "data vacuum" due to the delay in key economic data releases, such as the October CPI [1] - Alternative data suggests a cooling labor market without severe deterioration, providing the Fed with justification to pause rate cuts [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 66.5%, while the likelihood of maintaining current rates is 33.5% [3] Group 4: Silicon Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic market is experiencing weak supply and demand dynamics, with multi-crystalline silicon prices under pressure [7][8] - Current inventory levels for multi-crystalline silicon are high at 301,000 tons, indicating an oversupply situation [8] - Analysts suggest that without substantial progress on "stockpiling" initiatives, prices will remain under pressure due to weak demand and high inventory levels [9]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals dated October 21, 2025, focusing on various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomically, Sino - US trade relations ease, and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is being watched. Fundamentally, copper mine supply disturbances increase. SMM expects a decrease in electrolytic copper production in October. Consumption shows "peak season without peak". The recommended trading strategies are long on dips, continue to hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [2][4][5]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant after downstream electrolytic aluminum plants complete their stockpiling. Some small - scale production cuts and maintenance have started, and more are expected in November. The price is expected to bottom out around 2800 yuan. Strategies include short - term low - level consolidation and waiting on spreads and options [11][12][13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors will drive the price this week. The consumption resilience in the fundamentals provides support. The strategy is to be bullish on dips and cautious on chasing highs [17][18]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price. High social inventory and warehouse receipts may limit the upside. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Strategies include being bullish on dips and waiting on spreads and options [24][25]. - **Zinc**: The import zinc ore loss widens, and domestic processing fees decline. The supply of refined zinc may increase, and consumption may weaken. The price shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Strategies include waiting on all trading types [27][31][33]. - **Lead**: Downstream lead - storage enterprise orders improve, but production may increase in mid - to - late October, and the price may fall. Strategies include holding short positions and selling out - of - the - money call options [38][39]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and there is cost support, but the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside. The price is expected to oscillate widely with a downward center. Strategies include shorting at the upper limit of the oscillation range and selling a wide - straddle combination [43][45][46]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is below the cost, and the terminal demand is not optimistic. It may keep a weak oscillation pattern. Strategies include weak oscillation and waiting on spreads [51][52]. - **Tin**: Sino - US trade tensions ease, and the Fed may cut interest rates. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly. The price may oscillate around the integer level. Strategies include waiting on options [58][59][60]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Polysilicon production cuts in November are bearish for demand. The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply. Strategies include waiting for a full correction [63][64][65]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand balance will improve in November. The short - term correction space is limited. Strategies include buying on dips, holding reverse spreads, and adjusting option strategies [70][71][72]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand. The price's oscillation center moves up. Strategies include being bullish on the oscillation, waiting on spreads, and selling out - of - the - money put options [74][75]. Group 4: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2512 rose 0.16% to 85400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 2 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is held, and Japan, Spain, and South Korea express concerns about copper processing and refining fees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors affect the market, and the export window may open again [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on dips, hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 fell 6 yuan to 2810 yuan/ton, and the position decreased. The spot price decreased in most regions [6]. - **Related Information**: There are procurement, production adjustment, inventory, and import - export data [7][8][9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus becomes more obvious, and production cuts are expected [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term low - level consolidation, wait on spreads and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 rose 35 yuan to 20965 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose in different regions [15]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, inventory, and economic data [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors support the price [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, cautious on chasing highs [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of cast aluminum alloy 2512 rose 60 yuan to 20460 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions [20]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, warehouse receipt, inventory, and import - export data [20][21][23]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price, and supply - demand factors affect the upside [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, wait on spreads and options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.39% to 21970 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot market was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory, production, and import - export data of zinc mines and refined zinc [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The import loss of zinc ore widens, and the supply of refined zinc may increase [31]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait on all trading types [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.2% to 17155 yuan/ton, and the index position increased. The spot price rose, and downstream procurement was active [35]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory and import - export data [36][37]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand improves, but production may increase [38]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2512 rose 460 to 121380 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot premium was stable [41]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export, production, and consumption data [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside [43][45]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short at the upper limit of the oscillation range, wait on spreads, and sell a wide - straddle combination [46][47][48]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of stainless steel SS2512 rose 55 to 12665 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price was in a certain range [50]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export and procurement price data [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is below the cost, and demand is not optimistic [51]. - **Trading Strategies**: Weak oscillation, wait on spreads [52]. Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2511 rose 1920 yuan/ton or 0.69% to 280870 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose, and demand recovery was weak [55]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, cooperation agreements, and mobile phone market data [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly [58]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillate around the integer level, wait on options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply [64]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for a full correction, no arbitrage and option strategies for now [65][66][67]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [69]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will improve, and short - term correction space is limited [70]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Buy on dips, hold reverse spreads, and adjust option strategies [71][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 fell 200 to 75980 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price rose [73]. - **Important Information**: There are production plan changes, import - export, and new energy vehicle production data [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand [74]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on the oscillation, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money put options [75]. Group 5: Price and Related Data - There are daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, showing price, spread, profit, and inventory data [76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85] - There are also various graphs showing price trends, spreads, and inventory changes of different non - ferrous metals [87][90][94][98][105][107][110][117][119][124][126][130][132][138][142][146][150][154][157][162][165][170][174]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to the fading of policy expectations, shifting market focus towards fundamental supply and demand dynamics [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polysilicon market is currently experiencing an oversupply situation, with increasing inventory pressures. Weekly production is maintained at 31,000 tons, with October production expected to exceed 130,000 tons [2]. - Analysts predict that the southwestern production areas may reduce or halt production due to the dry season, while some northern manufacturers may increase or resume production. October is anticipated to be the peak production month for the year, with a subsequent decline expected [2][3]. - Polysilicon inventory has risen to 289,340 tons, indicating a lack of substantial improvement in the supply-demand balance, which limits the support for current spot prices [2]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - As of October 20, the main contract PS2511 closed at 50,340 yuan, down 3.66%. The mainstream market price for N-type dense polysilicon is reported to be between 47 to 53 yuan/kg [2]. - There is a significant divergence in market sentiment, with some analysts suggesting that if inventory continues to accumulate in November, prices may face downward pressure. Others believe that reduced production during the dry season could provide some support for prices [3]. - The market remains in a state of uncertainty, influenced by the interplay between strong policy expectations and weak fundamental realities, necessitating a rational approach to market fluctuations [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of polysilicon futures, which reached a record high of 56,735 yuan/ton, driven by favorable policies and price recovery in the photovoltaic industry [1][2] - The A-share market for silicon materials and wafers saw collective gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Daqo Energy (up 8.86%) and Tongwei Co. (up 6.18%) [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a plan to promote high-quality development in the photovoltaic sector, aiming to eliminate low-price competition [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that the price control measures, including the Price Law, have led to polysilicon prices being maintained above production costs, providing a supportive floor for futures prices [2] - Recent price increases in downstream products like silicon wafers and battery cells are attributed to rising polysilicon costs and recovering overseas demand [2] - The current spot market for polysilicon has also seen price increases, with quotes rising from 35,000 yuan/ton to 47,000 yuan/ton in July, and further increases noted in August [2] Group 3 - The operating rate of polysilicon enterprises has improved, currently at 40%, reflecting a 6 percentage point increase from the previous month [3] - Despite the positive trends, there are concerns about supply-demand imbalances as production is expected to increase by approximately 7,000 tons in September [3] - The market is sensitive to policy developments, with potential for futures prices to continue rising if the "anti-involution" policies are effectively implemented [3]