据安泰科统计，本周多晶硅 n 型复投料成交价格区间为 4.9-5.5 万元 / 吨，成交均价为 5.32 万元 / 吨，环比持平。 n 型颗粒 硅成交价格区间为 5.0-5.1 万元 / 吨，成交均价为 5.05 万元 / 吨，环比持平。 本周多晶硅市场继续呈现供需双弱的局面。主流签单企业数量维持在 5 家左右，但成交结构呈现分化：头部棒状硅企业和 颗粒硅企业签单量和成交价格与前期基本持平，而部分二线企业因下游需求疲软，签单量略有受阻，成交价格在区间不变的情 况下，重心小幅下移。但二线企业成交量占比较小，未对本周整体均价产生实质性影响。 根据硅业分会统计， 11 月份国内多晶硅产量约 11.49 万吨，环比大幅减少 15.9% 。 11 月尽管有大全、东方希望、丽豪、 南玻等部分企业复产带来增量，但整体供应收缩明显，月度净减量约 2.2 万吨，主要来自通威、协鑫等头部企业的计划内减产 或检修。 展望 12 月，根据各企业排产计划，国内多晶硅产量预计仍将维持在 12 万吨以内，环比小幅回升，增量主要来自通威等企 业的检修复产以及其他企业的复产爬坡。同期需求端预期更为疲软，硅片、电池片、组件各环节为应对高库存和终 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. stock markets saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.37%, the Dow Jones by 1.12%, and the S&P 500 by 1.07% [1] - Major tech stocks performed well, with Apple increasing approximately 4% to reach a market capitalization of $3.89 trillion, surpassing Microsoft [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.39%, with notable increases in Chinese stocks such as iQIYI (up over 8%) and NIO (up nearly 5%) [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures increased by 3.82%, reaching $4,374.3 per ounce, while spot gold rose by 2.48% to $4,357.36 per ounce, both hitting historical highs [1] - COMEX silver futures rose by 2.59%, closing at $51.4 per ounce [1] - WTI crude oil futures slightly decreased by 0.03% to $57.52 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.46% to $61.01 per barrel [1] - U.S. natural gas futures surged nearly 13%, closing at $3.397 per million British thermal units [1] Group 3: Silicon Market Dynamics - On October 20, polysilicon futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract PS2511 closing at 50,340 yuan, down 3.66% [6] - Analysts attribute the price drop to a shift in market focus from speculative influences to fundamental conditions, indicating a supply surplus in the polysilicon market [6][7] - Current weekly polysilicon production is maintained at 31,000 tons, with expectations of exceeding 130,000 tons in October [6] - Inventory levels have increased to 289,340 tons, indicating a lack of substantial improvement in the supply-demand balance [6][7] Group 4: Future Outlook for Polysilicon - Analysts express mixed views on the future of polysilicon prices, with potential support from reduced production during the dry season in southwestern regions [7] - The market is currently characterized by a struggle between strong policy expectations and weak fundamental realities, leading to uncertainty in price movements [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to the fading of policy expectations, shifting market focus towards fundamental supply and demand dynamics [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polysilicon market is currently experiencing an oversupply situation, with increasing inventory pressures. Weekly production is maintained at 31,000 tons, with October production expected to exceed 130,000 tons [2]. - Analysts predict that the southwestern production areas may reduce or halt production due to the dry season, while some northern manufacturers may increase or resume production. October is anticipated to be the peak production month for the year, with a subsequent decline expected [2][3]. - Polysilicon inventory has risen to 289,340 tons, indicating a lack of substantial improvement in the supply-demand balance, which limits the support for current spot prices [2]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - As of October 20, the main contract PS2511 closed at 50,340 yuan, down 3.66%. The mainstream market price for N-type dense polysilicon is reported to be between 47 to 53 yuan/kg [2]. - There is a significant divergence in market sentiment, with some analysts suggesting that if inventory continues to accumulate in November, prices may face downward pressure. Others believe that reduced production during the dry season could provide some support for prices [3]. - The market remains in a state of uncertainty, influenced by the interplay between strong policy expectations and weak fundamental realities, necessitating a rational approach to market fluctuations [3].