多晶硅供应结构重塑

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[安泰科]多晶硅周评- 成本支撑价格合理上涨 多力助推产业深度重构
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-07-09 07:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price trends and market dynamics of polysilicon, highlighting a significant price increase due to operational losses and inventory clearance efforts by polysilicon manufacturers [1][2]. Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 34,000 to 38,000 CNY per ton, with an average transaction price of 37,100 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.92% [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 34,000 to 37,000 CNY per ton, with an average transaction price of 35,600 CNY per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 6.27% [1]. - The price of silicon materials continues to rise, with quotes now ranging from 45,000 to 50,000 CNY per ton, marking a substantial increase of 25%-35% in polysilicon prices [1]. Market Dynamics - Despite the price increase, new order volumes remain limited as wafer manufacturers adopt a wait-and-see approach due to unstable downstream market prices [1]. - There is a notable contrast between the strong willingness to expedite previously signed orders and the previous trend of frequent order cancellations, indicating a stabilization in the polysilicon market [1]. Future Expectations - Currently, there are nine domestic polysilicon manufacturers, and the cost structure varies due to geographical and resource differences, leading to price differentiation [2]. - In a limited downstream demand environment, products with lower prices and similar quality will be prioritized for transactions, putting higher-cost manufacturers at a disadvantage [2]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" initiative serves as a test of comprehensive cost strength among companies, with increasing pressure for passive adjustments in energy conservation and green low-carbon practices [2]. - The polysilicon market is expected to remain cautious in the short term, with prices potentially experiencing slight increases influenced by market expectations until a substantial improvement in supply-demand relationships occurs [2].