Core Insights - The transaction prices for n-type polysilicon have shown slight fluctuations, with the range for n-type re-investment material at 51,000 to 53,000 CNY/ton and an average price of 51,700 CNY/ton, while n-type granular silicon is priced between 50,000 to 51,000 CNY/ton with an average of 50,500 CNY/ton [1][2] - Market activity has seen a slight rebound, breaking the previous stagnation, with four companies completing small orders, although overall transactions remain exploratory in nature [1] - The transaction structure is characterized by a significant volume of granular silicon sales compared to rod silicon, attributed to weak downstream demand and a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival [1] Market Dynamics - Downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the upcoming holiday has led to a low willingness for large-scale procurement [1] - Many silicon material companies are either significantly reducing production or halting operations, resulting in a weak inclination to further lower prices [1] - Granular silicon is achieving more substantial transactions due to its relatively higher cost-performance ratio, making it easier to secure essential orders [1] Future Outlook - The polysilicon market is expected to remain in a stalemate in the short term, primarily influenced by the interplay between weak pre-holiday demand and supply contraction [1] - Post-holiday, as terminal installation projects gradually commence, downstream demand is anticipated to increase, potentially boosting procurement needs [1] - Continuous supply contraction is expected to support improvements in the supply-demand relationship, with recent transactions providing some price floor support [1] - The resolution of core supply-demand conflicts will depend heavily on the comprehensive recovery of terminal demand and the effective implementation of related energy consumption policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The multi-crystalline silicon market is experiencing a slight recovery in activity, but overall transactions remain cautious and primarily exploratory due to weak downstream demand and production cuts among silicon manufacturers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Prices and Transactions - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 51,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 51,700 yuan/ton [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton [1]. - The market has seen a slight increase in activity with four companies completing small orders, although the overall transaction volume remains low and primarily consists of tentative trades [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - In the short term, the multi-crystalline silicon market is expected to remain in a stalemate due to the ongoing struggle between weak pre-holiday demand and supply contraction, limiting price fluctuations [2]. - Post-holiday, as terminal installation projects gradually commence, downstream demand is anticipated to increase, potentially boosting procurement needs [2]. - The recent small transactions in the market may provide some price support, but resolving the core supply-demand conflict will depend heavily on a comprehensive recovery in terminal demand and the effective implementation of relevant energy consumption policies [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the polysilicon market is currently in a stalemate, with almost no significant transactions occurring this week due to prevailing market sentiment and low purchasing willingness from downstream buyers [1][2] - The demand side is constrained by high prices of key auxiliary materials like silver paste, which keeps battery production costs elevated, and insufficient overseas orders for modules, leading to a lack of purchasing intent [1][2] - On the supply side, major companies have significantly reduced or halted production, which has led to a continuous contraction in polysilicon supply, somewhat alleviating supply-demand conflicts and reducing the willingness of companies to lower prices [1][2] Group 2 - As of this week, one major company has completely halted production, and two others have implemented production cuts, resulting in an expected 15% month-on-month decrease in polysilicon output for January, aligning with the production schedules of silicon wafer companies [1] - The production plan for February indicates a further reduction in polysilicon output to 82,000 to 85,000 tons, continuing the trend of supply contraction [1] - The upcoming Chinese New Year and the traditional off-season in the first quarter are expected to weaken domestic terminal demand and overseas module orders, while high prices of auxiliary materials will maintain cost pressures on battery cells [2]

Core Viewpoint - The silicon market is experiencing a stalemate, with stable prices despite slight fluctuations in some companies' quotes, primarily due to preemptive demand and rising production costs from silver prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The overall trading atmosphere in the market is subdued, with new orders being scarce and transactions mainly consisting of tentative deals [1]. - The current market deadlock is attributed to two main factors: the preemptive demand for photovoltaic products and the reluctance of downstream silicon wafer companies to increase production rates [1][2]. - The average transaction price for n-type recycled silicon is reported at 59,200 yuan/ton, while n-type granular silicon is at 55,800 yuan/ton, both remaining stable week-on-week [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Several leading companies are expected to implement production cuts or halts in January, leading to an anticipated average monthly production of polysilicon around 80,000 tons in the first quarter [2]. - Despite the lack of substantial recovery in terminal demand, the significant reduction in supply is gradually leading to a weak balance in supply and demand [2]. - Key variables affecting price trends include changes in downstream operating rates and the sustainability of inventory reduction, with high inventory levels potentially suppressing prices if demand does not recover promptly [2]. Group 3: Price Statistics - The price statistics for domestic solar-grade polysilicon as of January 21, 2026, show the following: - n-type recycled silicon price range: 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, average price: 59,200 yuan/ton [3]. - n-type granular silicon price range: 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, average price: 55,800 yuan/ton [3]. - The prices are based on a weighted average from nine polysilicon production companies, which account for 89.3% of domestic production in Q4 2025 [3][4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the market for polysilicon, particularly n-type materials, is currently stable with transaction prices holding steady despite slight fluctuations in individual company quotes. The average transaction price for n-type recycled material is 59,200 yuan/ton, while n-type granular silicon is at 55,800 yuan/ton, both showing no change compared to the previous period [1][2]. - The market atmosphere is described as quiet, with new orders being scarce and transactions primarily consisting of small, tentative deals. This stalemate is attributed to two main factors: first, some demand has been preemptively fulfilled by 2025, leading to a lack of urgency in procurement from downstream silicon wafer manufacturers; second, rising silver prices have significantly increased production costs for battery cells and modules, limiting the impact of slight price reductions in polysilicon on downstream costs [1][2]. - A significant reduction in polysilicon production is anticipated, with major companies planning to halt or reduce output in January, leading to an expected average monthly production of around 80,000 tons in the first quarter. Although terminal demand has not shown substantial recovery, the drastic supply contraction is expected to gradually lead to a weak balance in supply and demand [2][3]. Group 2 - The key variables influencing price trends in the polysilicon market include: first, any substantial changes in downstream operating rates, particularly the effective transmission of order demand from the battery and module sectors to the silicon wafer sector; second, the sustainability of inventory reduction, as high inventory levels could suppress prices if demand does not recover in a timely manner [2][3]. - The transaction price data for domestic solar-grade polysilicon indicates that the highest price for n-type recycled material is 63,000 yuan/ton, while the lowest is 50,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 59,200 yuan/ton showing no fluctuation [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. With both supply and demand decreasing, combined with the upward price transmission effects of coal and the photovoltaic industry chain, price support is evident. There is short-term potential for demand growth, which will boost prices. The upward price limit depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward limit is restricted by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates in the photovoltaic industry may stimulate short-term polysilicon exports, but it may also deplete medium- and long-term demand. After polysilicon enterprises were interviewed, the hope for coordinated price support was dashed, and the overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with downstream production capacity accelerating to clear. In the short term, attention should be paid to new silicon wafer quotes and the January production plan; in the medium to long term, focus on the recovery of demand and inventory clearance progress [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 19, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,605 yuan/ton and closed at 8,845 yuan/ton, a change of 140 yuan/ton (1.61%) from the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the 2605 main contract was 235,167 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on January 18, 2026, was 11,283 lots, a change of 144 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of January 15, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 555,000 tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week [1]. - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. This week, polysilicon production cuts continued, providing limited support for industrial silicon demand. Organic silicon maintained a staggered peak emission reduction policy and continued self - disciplined production cuts, also providing weak support for industrial silicon demand. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable to slightly weak. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics may bring upward momentum to the demand side [1]. Supply - On the same day, a major factory in Xinjiang announced production cuts. The planned production in January is expected to decline significantly, which will positively impact the industrial silicon price. If the production cuts are effective, the supply of industrial silicon will contract significantly, and the inventory will shift from accumulation to depletion [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 19, 2026, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated upward, opening at 50,200 yuan/ton and closing at 50,505 yuan/ton, a 0.63% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The position of the main contract reached 44,571 lots (46,220 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 12,235 lots [3]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 51.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg [3]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and silicon wafer inventory also increased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 321,000 tons, a 6.29% change from the previous period, silicon wafer inventory was 24.78GW, a - 5.53% change from the previous period, polysilicon weekly production was 21,500 tons, a - 9.66% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer production was 10.83GW, a 2.95% change from the previous period [3]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.49 yuan/piece [4]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.41 yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W [6]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.74 - 0.77 yuan/W [6]. - Recently, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to the minimum opening volume of the polysilicon futures 2701 contract, changing the minimum opening order quantity from 1 lot to 10 lots. The reduction of speculative funds makes the market fluctuations more in line with the supply - demand fundamentals, stabilizes the hedging effect, and strengthens the influence of industrial customers on prices [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, with the main contract expected to maintain a weak oscillation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [7]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polysilicon market is experiencing a cautious trading atmosphere with prices remaining stable, influenced by supply-side adjustments and uncertain downstream demand [1][2]. Price Summary - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 50,000 to 63,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 59,200 CNY/ton, showing no change week-on-week [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is also between 50,000 to 63,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 55,800 CNY/ton, remaining stable [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The trading atmosphere in the domestic polysilicon market is described as quiet, with only a few companies making small exploratory orders [1]. - Factors contributing to the cautious sentiment include the anticipation of demand signals and the impact of rising silver prices on production costs for battery and module segments [1]. - The market is currently in a critical phase of supply-demand rebalancing, with significant supply-side reductions expected to support price stability [2]. Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate that polysilicon prices will continue to remain stable, with future market direction heavily reliant on actual changes in downstream operating rates and recovery in terminal demand [2]. - The first quarter of 2026 is projected to see monthly polysilicon production drop to a range of 70,000 to 90,000 tons due to planned production halts and significant reductions by leading companies [2].

Group 1 - The domestic polysilicon market is experiencing a lack of trading activity, with only a few companies achieving small exploratory orders, as both upstream and downstream enterprises adopt a wait-and-see attitude [1] - The recent export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products has provided short-term support for battery and module exports, but some demand has been preemptively pulled forward to 2025, limiting its actual impact on current demand [1] - Rising silver prices have significantly increased production costs for battery cells and modules, creating uncertainty regarding the downstream acceptance of these cost increases, which affects operational rates [1] Group 2 - According to Antaike, the transaction price range for n-type polysilicon this week is between 50,000 to 63,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 59,200 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week [1] - In January, some leading companies are gradually halting production, with plans to continue for six months, while two other companies are implementing significant production cuts, leading to an expected monthly polysilicon output of 70,000 to 90,000 tons in Q1 2026 [2] - The current polysilicon market is at a critical stage of supply-demand rebalancing, with price stability primarily driven by significant supply-side reductions [2] Group 3 - The average transaction prices for various types of polysilicon as of January 14, 2026, are as follows: n-type re-investment material at 59,200 yuan per ton, n-type dense material at 55,300 yuan per ton, and n-type granular silicon at 55,800 yuan per ton, all showing no fluctuation [3] - The price data is based on weighted averages from nine polysilicon production companies, which accounted for 89.3% of domestic production in Q4 2025, with n-type materials comprising 91.6% of the total [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic polysilicon market is experiencing a lack of significant trading activity, with prices remaining stable due to cautious sentiment among upstream and downstream enterprises [1][2] - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon re-investment material is reported at 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 59,200 yuan/ton, showing no change compared to the previous period [1][3] - The market is currently in a critical phase of supply-demand rebalancing, with expectations that polysilicon prices will remain stable in the short term, influenced by actual changes in downstream operating rates and demand recovery [2] Group 2 - In January, some leading companies are expected to fully halt production for up to six months, while others will implement significant production cuts, leading to a forecasted monthly polysilicon output of 70,000 - 90,000 tons in Q1 2026 [2] - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to provide important bottom support for the market, as silicon wafer production remains relatively stable and social inventory begins to decrease slightly [2] - The market participants are currently awaiting clearer demand signals, which will determine future price fluctuations based on the evolving supply-demand landscape [2]

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are experiencing price fluctuations, with industrial silicon prices showing a slight decline and polysilicon prices also decreasing, influenced by supply and demand dynamics and recent policy changes in the photovoltaic sector [2][5][7]. Supply Side - Industrial silicon futures prices have shown a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 8635 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton or 1.65% from the previous day [2]. - The supply of industrial silicon remains stable, with prices for various grades holding steady across multiple regions, including East China and Xinjiang [2][13]. - As of January 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [13]. Demand Side - The demand for polysilicon is expected to rise due to the recent cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products, although the actual impact may not be felt until April when the policy takes effect [3][7]. - The operating rate of aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises has slightly decreased, and the demand for aluminum alloys is showing marginal weakness [3][7]. Price Outlook - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, supported by cost factors and production cut expectations, while the extent of price increases will depend on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction [4][14]. - Polysilicon futures prices have also shown a decline, with the main contract closing at 49005 yuan/ton, down 4.45% from the previous trading day [5][18]. Market Strategy - The recent policy changes in the photovoltaic industry may lead to short-term spikes in polysilicon demand, but the long-term effects could involve overshooting demand [7][18]. - The overall market sentiment is weak, with a recommendation to maintain a cautious stance in the short term and consider short positions in the medium to long term [7][18].