n型颗粒硅

Search documents
新能源及有色金属日报:弱现实与政策预期博弈,多晶硅盘面震荡运行-20250826
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 05:25
弱现实与政策预期博弈,多晶硅盘面震荡运行 工业硅: 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-26 市场分析 2025-08-25,工业硅期货盘面高开低走,主力合约2511开于8930元/吨,最后收于8675元/吨,较前一日结算变化(5) 元/吨,变化(0.06)%。截止收盘,2511主力合约持仓289125手,2025-08-25仓单总数为50938手,较前一日变化-111 手。 供应端:工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据,昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9500(100)元/吨;421#硅在9500-9700 (0)元/吨,新疆通氧553价格8600-8700(150)元/吨,99硅价格在8600-8700(200)元/吨。天津、西北、新疆、 上海地区部分硅价也上调。四川地区个别硅价下调。昆明、黄埔港地区硅价也暂稳。97硅价格同样持稳。 SMM统计8月21日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.3万吨,较上周环比减少0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库11.7万吨, 较上周环比持平,社会交割仓库42.6万吨(含未注册成仓单及现货部分),较上周环比减少0.2万吨。 消费端:据SMM统计,有机硅DMC报价10500-110 ...
硅业分会:市场预期向好 多晶硅小单延续涨势
智通财经网· 2025-08-20 08:25
Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon continues to rise due to supply-demand dynamics and regulatory support in the photovoltaic industry [2] Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 45,000 to 52,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 47,900 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.05% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 45,000 to 47,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 46,000 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.37% [1] - The number of companies signing contracts for polysilicon this week is six, indicating a stable yet rising market price [1] Market Dynamics - The price increase is supported by a joint meeting of six ministries aimed at regulating competition in the photovoltaic industry, signaling a commitment to avoid excessive competition [2] - Polysilicon companies are implementing production and sales restrictions, alleviating market pressure on supply and demand [2] - Major polysilicon producers are reducing production, which is expected to increase overall costs and lead to higher market prices due to regulatory constraints [2] Production and Inventory - The number of polysilicon producers remains at nine, with an expected production of approximately 125,000 tons in August [2] - If production and sales restrictions are effectively implemented in September, monthly output is expected to remain stable, but the current oversupply situation has not improved significantly [2] - Industry inventory is projected to continue accumulating, with an estimated increase of about 20,000 tons from August to September [2] Price Statistics - The highest and lowest transaction prices for n-type polysilicon are 52,000 CNY/ton and 45,000 CNY/ton, respectively, with an average price of 47,900 CNY/ton [3] - The price fluctuations for n-type granular silicon show a highest price of 47,000 CNY/ton and a lowest price of 45,000 CNY/ton, with an average price increase of 3.37% [3] Participating Companies - The companies involved in the price statistics include Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, and Xinjiang Goin Technology Co., Ltd., among others [4]
[安泰科]多晶硅周评-市场预期向好 小单延续涨势 (2025年8月20日)
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-08-20 08:21
Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon continues to rise due to supply constraints and positive market signals from government initiatives aimed at regulating the photovoltaic industry [1][2]. Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type recycled polysilicon is between 45,000 to 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,900 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.05% [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 45,000 to 47,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 46,000 yuan/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.37% [1][3]. - The number of companies signing contracts for polysilicon this week is six, indicating a stable yet rising market price [1]. Market Dynamics - The increase in polysilicon prices is attributed to a joint meeting by six ministries to discuss the photovoltaic industry, signaling a commitment to regulate competition and reduce "involution" [1]. - Polysilicon companies are implementing production and sales restrictions, alleviating market pressure on supply and demand [1][2]. - Major polysilicon producers are reducing output, which is expected to lead to increased overall costs and a regulatory environment that prevents sales below comprehensive costs [1][2]. Inventory and Production Outlook - The number of operating polysilicon companies remains at nine, maintaining an output expectation of around 125,000 tons for August [2]. - If production and sales restrictions are effectively implemented in September, monthly output is expected to remain stable, but the current oversupply situation has not improved significantly, leading to an anticipated inventory increase of approximately 20,000 tons for August and September combined [2].
新能源及有色金属日报:情绪有所消退,工业硅多晶硅盘面回落-20250814
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 07:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, with both supply and demand increasing and a slight reduction in inventory. However, there is significant over - capacity and high inventory pressure. The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. For polysilicon, short - term downstream product prices are under pressure, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure. The short - term market may maintain wide fluctuations, but it is suitable for long - term low - level layout [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price declined. The main contract 2511 opened at 8800 yuan/ton and closed at 8600 yuan/ton, a change of - 305 yuan/ton (- 3.43%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 284,500 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,701 lots, a change of 43 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable [1]. - In August, the number of open furnaces increased in both the southwest and northwest regions. The consumption side saw a significant increase in polysilicon production, while silicone, aluminum alloy, and exports were relatively stable. There was an overall slight reduction in inventory, but the total inventory in the industry was still high, about 940,000 tons, equivalent to about 3 months of consumption [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures declined, closing at 51,290 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.11% from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 132,463 lots, and the trading volume was 395,645 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, while the weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers also increased [4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, the polysilicon market is under pressure, and the market may maintain wide fluctuations. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading. In the long term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low levels. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6][8].
硅业分会:本周多晶硅整体成交均价小幅上涨
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-13 10:55
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 每经AI快讯,8月13日,硅业分会发文称,本周多晶硅n型复投料成交价格区间为4.5-4.9万元/吨,成交 均价为4.74万元/吨,周环比上涨0.42%。n型颗粒硅成交价格区间为4.4-4.5万元/吨,成交均价为4.45万 元/吨,周环比上涨0.45%。 ...
硅业分会:本周多晶硅整体成交均价小幅上涨 成本对价格形成支撑
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 10:16
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the price of polysilicon is experiencing a slight upward trend, with the average price of n-type re-investment material at 47,400 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.42% [1][2] - The transaction volume of polysilicon has slightly decreased week-on-week, but the number of signing companies has increased to six, with some companies maintaining prices while others raised prices by 1 RMB/kg [1] - The main reason for the price increase is attributed to the significant signing volume from leading companies since July, leading to a noticeable reduction in inventory levels [1][2] Group 2 - The number of polysilicon producers remains at nine, with an expected domestic production of 125,000 tons in August and a potential increase to around 140,000 tons in September [1] - The market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with polysilicon inventory expected to increase by over 50,000 tons, prompting some companies to consider coordinated production cuts to alleviate pressure [1] - The current market pricing is primarily supported by costs, with the prevailing signing model being dual distribution or high-cost performance procurement, indicating that prices are nearing a temporary peak [2]
[安泰科]多晶硅周评- 成本支撑托底 价格承压微涨 (2025年8月13日)
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-08-13 09:35
本周多晶硅 n 型复投料成交价格区间为 4.5-4.9 万元 / 吨,成交均价为 4.74 万元 / 吨,周环比上涨 0.42% 。 n 型颗粒硅成交价格区间为 4.4-4.5 万元 / 吨,成交均价为 4.45 万元 / 吨,周环比上涨 0.45% 。 本周多晶硅成交量环比略有减少,但签单企业数量增至 6 家,其中部分企业成交价 格维持不变,其余企业价格上调 1 元 / 公斤,整体均价小幅上涨。 多晶硅价格维持涨 势的主要原因在于: 7 月份多晶硅价格调至成本线上以来, 头部企业签单量相对较 大,去库程度明显,个别企业甚至清库,无余量可签,故本周头部企业成交价整体持 稳,个别订单小幅上调。此外,头部企业签单饱和后,市场需求余量转至其他硅料企 业,而中部企业相对较高的成本同样对本周整体价格形成支撑。 本周在产多晶硅企业数量维持在 9 家,按当前排产计划, 8 月份国内多晶硅产量预 计在 12.5 万吨, 9 月份部分复产产线继续放量,国内产量或将继续增至 14 万吨左右, 而同期硅片产出基本持稳,多晶硅库存将在高位基础上累增超过 5 万吨,市场供需失 衡的困局再次加码。为缓解供需压力,部分硅料企业正计划协同限 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:政策扰动仍在,工业硅多晶硅盘面大幅上涨-20250807
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 05:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are significantly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with relatively stable fundamentals. The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation, while the polysilicon market is mainly dominated by policy expectations and has large overall fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8400 yuan/ton and closed at 8700 yuan/ton, with a change of 305 yuan/ton (3.63%) compared to the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2509 main contract was 208,736 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,580 lots, a change of - 226 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon increased. For example, the price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9100 - 9400 yuan/ton [1] - The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region decided to abolish the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Guide for the Consultation Mechanism for the Identification of Compliance Capacity of Industrial Silicon in the Autonomous Region", and relevant departments will continue to implement "window guidance" for new and technological transformation projects of industrial silicon. Industry associations in Yunnan and Sichuan issued an initiative against involution and for high - quality development. The policy disturbances had an impact on the market. The consumer - side organic silicon DMC was quoted at 12,100 - 12,500 yuan/ton, with stable prices, general trading, and mainly rigid - demand purchases [2] Strategy - The current market is greatly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with little change in fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation. The strategy for the single - side is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures rose, opening at 50,300 yuan/ton and closing at 51,345 yuan/ton, with a closing - price change of 3.23% compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 138,396 lots (127,587 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 420,201 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory decreased, the silicon wafer inventory increased, the weekly polysilicon production increased by 3.92% to 26,500 tons, and the silicon wafer production decreased by 1.79% to 11.00GW [5] - In July, component enterprises slightly increased production, but the recent price fluctuations affected production enthusiasm. Distributed demand improved marginally but was still at a low level, and centralized demand had waiting and pressure - exerting behaviors from central state - owned enterprises. It is expected that the output in August will decrease slightly month - on - month, with better production and shipment of large - size components led by HJT [6] Strategy - In August, the production in the southwest is expected to increase significantly, the polysilicon inventory will rise, the delivery rhythm of previous orders will slow down, and the signing of new orders is limited except for granular silicon. The market is more watchful. The current market is mainly dominated by policy expectations, with large fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices. The short - term single - side strategy is interval operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7][8]
新能源及有色金属日报:反内卷情绪降温,工业硅多晶硅盘面回落-20250801
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 05:58
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-01 反内卷情绪降温,工业硅多晶硅盘面回落 工业硅: 市场分析 2025-07-31,工业硅期货价格大幅回落,主力合约2509开于9090元/吨,最后收于8760元/吨,较前一日结算变化(-585) 元/吨,变化(-6.26)%。截止收盘,2509主力合约持仓212932手,2025-07-31仓单总数为50644手,较前一日变化 798手。 供应端:工业硅现货价格下跌。据SMM数据,昨日华东通氧553#硅在9700-9900(-200)元/吨;421#硅在9900-10400 (-100)元/吨,新疆通氧553价格9100-9200(-200)元/吨,99硅价格在9000-9200(-200)元/吨。 根据SMM市场交流,2025年7月份工业硅产量在33.83万吨环比增加3.2%同比减少30.6%。2025年1-7月份工业硅累 计产量在221.12万吨,同比下降20.0%。 SMM统计7月31日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54万吨,较上周环比增加0.5万吨。其中社会普通仓库11.9万吨,较 上周减少0.1万吨,社会交割仓库42.1万吨(含未注册成仓单及现货部分),较上 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:交易限仓进一步加强,短期交易需注意风险-20250731
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 05:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, recent price fluctuations are due to rising raw material coal prices and changes in supply - demand. The market is expected to remain volatile with a neutral stance on the single - side strategy [1][2][3]. - For polysilicon, the futures market is affected by the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry, with a certain deviation from the spot fundamentals. There is a risk of chasing high prices, and the recommended strategy is to sell - hedge at high prices and buy put options [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose. The main contract 2509 opened at 9500 yuan/ton and closed at 9285 yuan/ton, a change of 200 yuan/ton (2.20%) from the previous settlement. The closing position of the 2509 main contract was 242,677 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 49,846 lots, a change of - 236 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9900 - 10100 (200) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 10100 - 10400 (100) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in multiple regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and Xinjiang also rose, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - Affected by the rising price of raw material coal, the cost of silicon coal was strongly supported, driving up the prices of silicon coal in many regions. For example, the price of non - caking silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 50 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, it increased by 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 12100 - 12700 (- 50) yuan/ton. The supply in the silicone market was contracting, and manufacturers' willingness to maintain prices increased significantly [2]. - **Strategy** - The recent market fluctuations have increased, but the fundamentals have changed little. It is expected that the market will remain volatile. - Single - side: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 51,800 yuan/ton and closing at 54,705 yuan/ton, a change of 8.87% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 164,490 lots (140,638 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 565,243 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. N - type material was 44.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 24.30, a month - on - month change of - 2.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.87GW, a month - on - month change of 11.55%. The weekly polysilicon output was 25,500.00 tons, a month - on - month change of 10.87%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.20GW, a month - on - month change of 0.90% [4]. - In terms of silicon wafers, domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 (0.05) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.55 (0.05) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.35 (0.05) yuan/piece [4]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (- 0.01) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (- 0.01) yuan/W [5]. - According to the data released by the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feeding materials this week was 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 44,000 - 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 44,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.68% [6]. - From the perspective of supply and demand, the total polysilicon output in July is expected to be close to 110,000 tons, and there is still a large possibility of growth in August. In July, the start - up of silicon wafer factories was relatively weak. With the rise in silicon wafer prices, some enterprises had preliminary plans to start furnaces, and the implementation needs further observation. The supply - demand fundamentals were weak [6]. - According to the exchange announcement, non - futures company members or customers' single - day opening volume on the polysilicon futures PS2509 contract should not exceed 500 lots, and on the PS2510, PS2511, PS2512, and PS2601 contracts, it should not exceed 2,000 lots respectively [6]. - **Strategy** - Currently, the polysilicon futures market is mainly affected by the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry, and there is a certain deviation from the spot fundamentals in the short term. The industry's acquisition and merger plan is still being promoted, and there is no clear conclusion yet. The futures are easily affected by news. From a valuation perspective, a price of 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton already gives the industry good profits, and the risk of chasing high prices is relatively large. The market fluctuations are large, and the futures position is large. After the exchange's position limit, the change in position can also easily cause market fluctuations. Investors need to pay attention to risk management. - Single - side: Sell - hedge at high prices; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: Buy put options [6][7].