国内太阳能级多晶硅价格(2025.11.19) 数据来源:安泰科 | 国内太阳能级多晶硅成交价 产品 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 相比 | 波动 | 波动% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | n型复投料成交价 | 5.50 | 4.90 | 5.32 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | n型致密料成交价 | 5.20 | 4.70 | 4.97 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | p型多晶硅成交价 | | | | | | | n型颗粒硅成交价 | 5.10 | 5.00 | 5.05 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 单位:万元/吨 | | | | 更新日期: | 2025-11-19 | 智通财经APP获悉，据安泰科统计，本周多晶硅n型复投料成交价格区间为4.9-5.5万元/吨，成交均价为 5.32万元/吨，环比持平。n型颗粒硅成交价格区间为5.0-5.1万元/吨，成交均价为5.05万元/吨，环比持 平。硅业分会表示，本周国内多晶硅市场继续呈现弱稳态势。尽管下游硅片、电池片价格均出现不同程 度下滑，且部分硅片企业已开始逐步减产以应对需求疲软，但多晶硅 ...

本周国内多晶硅市场继续呈现弱稳态势 。 尽管下游硅片、电池片价格均出现不 同程度下滑，且 部分 硅片企业已开始逐步减产以应对需求疲软，但多晶硅实际成交 价 仍 维持稳定 。 主流签单企业数量保持在 5 家左右，市场成交活跃度与前期基本 相当。 本周 价格持稳主要 有两方面原因：一方面，供应端收缩有效对冲了需求走弱 的影响。西南地区受枯水期等因素制约，部分企业已大幅减产甚至停产，预期 11月 国内多晶硅产量将降至12万吨以内，环比 降幅约 14% ，一定程度上缓解了供应压 力。另一方 面，产业链上下游形成隐性共识 。 在 当前相对 脆弱的市场环境下，多 晶硅价格下跌非但不能有效刺激需求，反而 会 破坏 7月以来逐步建立的企稳预期 ， 甚至 可能引发整个产业链价格体系 崩盘。 因此， 多晶硅 企业 的 稳价意愿十分坚 决。 根据企业排产计划， 12月多晶硅产量预计仍将维持在12万吨左右，全年总产量约 133万吨，同比降幅27.8%。尽管近期 下游减产 将削弱 对多晶硅的 短期 需求，但在 供应已同步 收紧、 社会库存本已高企的背景下， 上下游企业 对于供需变化 的 容忍 度较高。综合 判断 ，当前多晶硅 市场需求 ...

Core Insights - The domestic polysilicon market is experiencing a weak and stable trend, with slight increases in transaction activity and a stable pricing environment due to supply-side production cuts and supportive policies [1][2]. Group 1: Pricing Trends - The transaction price range for n-type reprocessed material is between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat week-on-week [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat week-on-week [1]. - The overall polysilicon market is still in a state of oversupply despite the supply contraction, with high industry inventory and weak end-user demand limiting price increases [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Currently, there are 11 domestic polysilicon producers, with two major companies expected to reduce production and undergo maintenance, leading to a significant estimated decrease in total output by 12.4% month-on-month [2]. - The production plan for domestic polysilicon in November is expected to drop below 120,000 tons, primarily due to rising electricity costs during the dry season in the southwestern region [1]. Group 3: Policy Developments - The new national standard for energy consumption limits for polysilicon and germanium products is in the consultation phase, which is expected to promote capacity clearance and industry upgrades once officially implemented [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic polysilicon market is maintaining a weak and stable trend, with slight recovery in transaction activity and stable prices due to supply-side production reduction expectations and policy support [1][2]. - The average transaction price for n-type reprocessed material is 53,200 yuan/ton, while n-type granular silicon is at 50,500 yuan/ton, both showing no change compared to the previous week [1][3]. - The total production of polysilicon in November is expected to drop to below 120,000 tons, primarily due to increased electricity costs during the dry season in the southwestern region [1][2]. Group 2 - Currently, there are 11 domestic polysilicon producers, with two major companies expected to reduce production and undergo maintenance, leading to a significant decrease in total supply by approximately 12.4% [2]. - Despite the supply contraction, the polysilicon market remains in a state of oversupply, with high industry inventory and weak end-user demand limiting price increases [2]. - The new national standard for energy consumption limits for silicon and germanium products is in the consultation phase, which is anticipated to drive capacity clearance and industry upgrades once implemented [1].

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 一、行情回顾与展望 日期 2025 年 11 月 05 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information was provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon market is in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with the supply exceeding demand. The terminal demand is in a post - "rush installation" weak period. The market focus is on whether the fourth - quarter policies can be implemented and their actual effects, but the short - term is mostly affected by news. The 01 contract has a significant premium and is expected to run cautiously and strongly within the range [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - The polysilicon main contract price opened low and went high. The PS2601 contract closed at 56,065 yuan/ton, with a 0.18% increase. The trading volume was 215,288 lots, and the open interest was 143,844 lots, with a net increase of 1,488 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon: the transaction price range of n - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the estimated polysilicon output is 382,000 tons, with an average monthly output of 127,300 tons. The output in October was higher than expected at 137,000 tons. The significant profit recovery suppresses the willingness to actively reduce production. The current monthly output can meet the terminal demand of 68.5GW, and the supply - demand imbalance remains [4]. 3.2 Market News - On November 03, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,590 lots, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - In September 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66GW, a 31.25% increase compared to the previous month. From January to September, the cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 240.27GW [5]. - On October 27, Daquan Energy announced that its third - quarter revenue reached 1.773 billion yuan, a 24.75% year - on - year increase, and the net profit was 73.479 million yuan. The first - three - quarter revenue was 3.243 billion yuan, a 46.00% year - on - year decrease, and the net loss was 1.073 billion yuan [5]. - On October 25, Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) disclosed its 2025 third - quarter report. In the third quarter, the company's operating income was 24.091 billion yuan, a slight 1.57% year - on - year decrease. The net loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company narrowed, with a year - on - year loss reduction of 62.69% and a quarter - on - quarter loss reduction of 86.68%, indicating a positive impact of the industry environment repair on the company's profitability [5].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance and Outlook - The price of the main contract of polysilicon showed a relatively strong performance within the range. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 54,990 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.72%. The trading volume was 307,284 lots, and the open interest was 118,430 lots, with a net increase of 3,498 lots [4]. - The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding materials was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the expected polysilicon output is 382,000 tons, with an average monthly output of 127,300 tons. However, the output in October, as statistics from the Silicon Industry Branch show, reached 137,000 tons, exceeding expectations. The significant profit restoration has curbed the willingness for active production cuts. Currently, the monthly output can meet the terminal demand of 68.5GW. The supply - demand imbalance situation has not been reversed, especially as the terminal demand is still in a weak period after the "rush installation." The market focus is expected to remain on the policy side. Recently, there is a policy vacuum period. Although the photovoltaic sector in the equity market is performing strongly, the fundamental situation of polysilicon itself is still weak, and it will run cautiously and strongly within the range [4]. 2. Market News - On October 28, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,150 lots, a net decrease of 90 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - In September 2025, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September, the cumulative newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 240.27GW [5]. - On October 27, Daquan Energy released an announcement stating that its revenue in the third quarter reached 1.773 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 24.75%, and the net profit was 73.479 million yuan. The announcement also showed that the revenue in the first three quarters was 3.243 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 46.00%, and the net profit had a loss of 1.073 billion yuan [5]. - On October 25, Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) disclosed its 2025 third - quarter report. In the third quarter, the company's operating income was 24.091 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 1.57%. However, the loss of net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies narrowed. The year - on - year loss reduction was 62.69%, and the quarter - on - quarter loss reduction was 86.68%. The recovery of the industry environment has had a positive impact on the company's profitability [5].

Core Insights - The current market for polysilicon remains oversupplied, with prices stabilizing due to weak demand and limited supply adjustments [1][2] Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type recycled polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 53,200 CNY/ton, showing no change from the previous period [1] - The average price for n-type granular silicon is 50,500 CNY/ton, also remaining stable [1] - The average price for n-type dense silicon is 49,700 CNY/ton, with no fluctuations reported [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic polysilicon market is experiencing low activity, with only 3-4 main signing companies and a decrease in order scale [1] - The monthly production of polysilicon is expected to rise to approximately 130,000 tons in Q4, an increase of 8.3% month-on-month, but many companies are nearing saturation in order intake [1][2] - In October, domestic polysilicon production reached about 137,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.2%, exceeding expectations by 5.4% [1] Future Outlook - Production plans for major manufacturers in the Southwest region indicate significant reductions in output for November and December, with total monthly production expected to drop to 125,000 to 130,000 tons [2] - Despite stable downstream operating rates, the inventory accumulation of polysilicon is anticipated to slow down in the last two months of the year, yet the industry inventory is likely to exceed 400,000 tons by the end of 2025 [2]

Core Insights - The multi-crystalline silicon market is currently experiencing a critical period of industrial restructuring, with supply significantly contracting year-on-year, yet inventory is slightly accumulating, indicating relatively weak terminal demand [1] - The average transaction price for n-type recycled material is stable at 53,200 CNY/ton, while n-type granular silicon averages 50,500 CNY/ton, both showing no change compared to the previous period [1][3] - The number of mainstream signing enterprises in the multi-crystalline silicon market has increased to 5-6, but overall market transactions remain relatively light, with demand expectations for Q4 photovoltaic installations being weak [1][2] Supply and Demand Analysis - The number of operating multi-crystalline silicon enterprises remains at 11, with production expected to peak in October at approximately 382,000 tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 3.0% [2] - In Q4, domestic multi-crystalline silicon production is projected to decrease gradually after November due to maintenance and reduced production in the southwestern region [2] - By 2025, the annual domestic multi-crystalline silicon production is expected to be around 1.34 million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 27.3%, indicating a slight oversupply compared to demand [2] Price Trends - The price range for n-type recycled material is between 49,000 and 55,000 CNY/ton, with the highest price at 55,000 CNY/ton and the lowest at 49,000 CNY/ton, reflecting no price fluctuation [3] - The price for n-type granular silicon is stable, with a range of 50,000 to 51,000 CNY/ton, maintaining an average of 50,500 CNY/ton [3] - The pricing data is based on weighted averages from nine multi-crystalline silicon production enterprises, which account for 89.3% of the domestic total production in Q3 2025 [3][4]

Core Insights - The price range for multi-crystalline silicon n-type raw materials is between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan per ton, remaining stable week-on-week [1] - The number of mainstream signing enterprises for multi-crystalline silicon has increased to 5-6, but overall market transactions remain relatively light, with signing volumes consistent with previous periods [1] - Demand expectations for photovoltaic installations in Q4 are weak, with limited increases in battery component orders, leading to stable operating rates for silicon wafer enterprises and overall steady demand for silicon materials [1] - Three companies are resuming production this month, leading to a slight increase in multi-crystalline silicon output expected in October, although most companies have reached their order limits [1] - The number of operating multi-crystalline silicon enterprises remains at 11, with production plans indicating a peak in October and a gradual decline in November and December [1] - Domestic multi-crystalline silicon production is expected to be around 382,000 tons in Q4, a slight year-on-year increase of 3.0%, while the total annual production for 2025 is projected to be approximately 1.34 million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 27.3% [1] - The multi-crystalline silicon industry is undergoing a critical period of structural reshaping, with inventory slightly accumulating despite a significant year-on-year supply contraction, indicating weak terminal demand [2] - Industry policies and market expectations are expected to be the main factors supporting the stable operation of the multi-crystalline silicon market in the short term [2]