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劲仔食品(003000):营收增长回暖,渠道调整深化
CMS· 2025-10-24 01:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth is recovering, with a focus on channel adjustments and product upgrades. The fish product segment has seen over 10% growth, and cost impacts are manageable. The company aims to stabilize its profitability as capacity utilization improves and channel adjustments take effect in Q4 2025 [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,065 million in 2023 to 3,133 million by 2027, with a CAGR of 41% in 2023 and a gradual decline to 11% by 2027 [2][13]. - Operating profit is expected to decrease from 267 million in 2023 to 389 million in 2027, reflecting a significant drop of 17% in 2025 [2][13]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline from 210 million in 2023 to 322 million in 2027, with a notable decrease of 17% in 2025 [2][13]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 25.4 in 2023 to 16.5 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness over time [2][13]. Quarterly Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 685 million and a net profit of 61 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.55% in revenue but a decrease of 14.77% in net profit [1][6]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 28.93%, slightly down from the previous year, primarily due to increased revenue from the snack channel and ongoing capacity ramp-up in fish products [6][7]. Product and Channel Performance - The fish product segment experienced over 10% growth in Q3 2025, while poultry products faced a decline due to high base effects. The snack channel saw over 50% growth, although traditional channels experienced a downturn [6][7]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its channel construction and service capabilities, which has led to increased sales, management, and R&D expense ratios in Q3 2025 [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue product upgrades and multi-channel coverage in Q4 2025, with expectations of gradual recovery in profitability as operational efficiencies improve [1][6].