证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 27 年 月 日 Q2 阶段性承压，长期战略坚定 事件：劲仔食品 25H1 实现营收 11.2 亿元，同比-0.5%，归母净利润 1.1 亿元，同比-21.9%，扣非归母净利润 0.9 亿元，同比-28.9%。其中 25Q2 营收 5.3 亿元，同比-10.4%，归母净利润 0.4 亿元，同比-36.3%，扣非归 母净利润 0.3 亿元，同比-47.5%。拟中期分红 4472.9 万元，分红率 39.9%。 鹌鹑蛋缩量影响短期成长性，扩品拓渠坚定长期发展方向。25H1 劲仔食 品营收同比-0.5%至 11.2 亿元。产品维度看，25H1 鱼制品营收同比+7.6% 至 7.6 亿元，公司加强深海鳀鱼产品宣传及品牌传播，赋能终端网点拓展 覆盖，牵引鱼制品营收持续扩容；禽类制品营收同比-24.0%至 2.0 亿元， 预计与鹌鹑蛋行业竞争加剧相关，但劲仔首创"溏心鹌鹑蛋"拓展品类边 界；豆制品营收同比+3.6%至 1.1 亿元，预计与公司加大周鲜鲜等新品推 广及铺市相关；蔬菜制品营收同比-10.7%至 3404.7 万元，预计与成本压 力及魔芋品 ...

基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 451 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 300 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 6.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 4.0 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 3.1 | | ROE（TTM） | 18.4 | | 资产负债率 | 33.7% | | 主要股东 | 周劲松 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 38.22% | 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 劲仔食品（003000.SZ） 经营表现承压，期待 H2 改善 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 2025 年半年报，公司Q2 收入/利润分别同比-10.4%/-36.3%，Q2 受 需求偏弱、竞争加剧影响，加上公司产品调整，经营表现承压。25H1 线上/ 线下渠道分别同比-6.8%/+0.9%。展望 H2，公司继续发力鱼干、豆制品等新 品创新，加快推进蛋类品牌"七个博士"品牌线下推广，鱼干类加快鳀鱼产品 推广与多渠道覆盖，成本端目前原材料价格相对谨慎，期待 H2 营收与利润率 端环比改善。我们预计 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 2.6 亿/3.0 亿/3.5 亿， ...

Core Viewpoint - Jinzhai Food, known as the "first stock of fish snacks," has announced a share repurchase plan to boost market confidence, with a total repurchase amount between 50 million and 100 million yuan, at a price not exceeding 16 yuan per share [1][2] Share Repurchase and Dividends - The company plans to use its own funds and special loan funds for stock repurchase, aiming to enhance investor confidence and maintain company value [2] - This marks the third share repurchase by the company in 2023, with the upper limit of the repurchase amount increased [2] - Since its IPO in 2020, Jinzhai Food has distributed a total of 593 million yuan in dividends, which is 3.73 times the net amount raised during the IPO, indicating strong shareholder returns [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.412 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.79%, and net profit of 291 million yuan, up 39.01% from 2020 [4] - The company reported a record high quarterly net profit of 76.62 million yuan in Q4 2024 [4] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 595 million yuan, a 10.27% increase, while net profit was 67.55 million yuan, down 8.21% due to fluctuations in foreign exchange losses [4] Channel Development and International Expansion - Jinzhai Food is building a comprehensive channel system focusing on offline, online, and overseas expansion, collaborating with over 100 snack specialty systems covering approximately 30,000 terminal stores [4] - The company has seen significant growth in overseas sales, reaching 34.6 million yuan in 2024, a 90.50% increase year-on-year, with products sold in nearly 40 countries and regions [5] Research and Development Investment - The company has steadily increased its R&D investment, with total R&D expenses reaching 152 million yuan from 2020 to 2024, and a 19.56% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinzhai Food, has decided to withdraw from the investment fund "Yueyang Caijin Taiyou Industrial Investment Partnership" and significantly reduce its investment in another fund, focusing on its core business amidst slowing revenue growth and rising advertising costs [1][6][10]. Investment Fund Withdrawal - Jinzhai Food announced its exit from the "Yueyang Caijin Taiyou Industrial Fund," which it co-established in September 2021 with a total fund size of 500 million yuan, where Jinzhai's planned contribution was 20 million yuan [2][4]. - The company also reduced its stake in the "Xiangxinli Private Equity Fund" from 19.60% to 6.86% by transferring an unfulfilled contribution of 65 million yuan to another company [5][6]. Focus on Core Business - The decision to withdraw from these funds is part of Jinzhai Food's strategy to concentrate on its main operations, optimize asset structure, and ensure sustainable development [6][7]. - The company aims to double its revenue and net profit by 2026 compared to 2023, despite facing challenges such as a decline in net profit in the first quarter of 2024 [11]. Financial Performance - Jinzhai Food has experienced steady revenue growth over the past three years, with revenues of 1.462 billion yuan, 2.065 billion yuan, and 2.412 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, and net profits of 125 million yuan, 210 million yuan, and 291.3 million yuan respectively [10]. - However, advertising expenses surged by 180% in the last year, leading to a noticeable slowdown in revenue growth, with a revenue growth rate of 16.79% in 2024 compared to 41.26% in 2023 [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company shows steady revenue growth with a focus on category expansion [1] - In Q1 2025, total revenue reached 595 million yuan, representing a 10% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8% to 68 million yuan [4][5] - The report highlights the impact of rising raw material costs on profit margins, with a slight decrease in gross margin to 29.91% [5] - The company is expected to improve profitability through scale effects and ongoing channel expansion [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 gross margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points due to increased raw material costs, but the company is maintaining stable margins through technical upgrades and channel expansion [5] - Sales expense ratio and management expense ratio both increased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.36% and 4.05%, respectively, while net profit margin decreased by 2 percentage points to 11.45% [5] Product and Channel Development - Revenue growth for fish and bean products exceeded 15% in Q1 2025, with ongoing expansion opportunities in fish products [6] - The company is leveraging health attributes of short-shelf-life products to achieve high repurchase rates [6] - Traditional e-commerce channels saw double-digit growth, and the company is enhancing brand perception through e-commerce initiatives [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to cultivate strong brand potential through new products and continue expanding across all channels [7] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.72, 0.87, and 1.03 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 19, 16, and 13 times [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2,771 million, 3,239 million, and 3,703 million yuan, with growth rates of 14.9%, 16.9%, and 14.3% respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][13]. Core Insights - The company achieved Q1 2025 revenue of 5.95 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.27%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.21% to 0.68 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company focuses on its leading fish products and stable growth in snack channels, with significant investments in brand development, R&D, and channel expansion [5]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 29.91%, with a net profit margin of 11.34%, reflecting a slight decrease compared to the previous year [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 28.30 billion, 33.56 billion, and 38.77 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17.33%, 18.59%, and 15.52% respectively [6][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 3.25 billion, 3.99 billion, and 4.81 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 11.45%, 23.0%, and 20.51% respectively [6][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.72, 0.89, and 1.07 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 15, and 12 times [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][13]. Core Views - The company achieved Q1 2025 revenue of 5.95 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.27%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.21% to 0.68 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company focuses on its leading fish products and stable growth in snack channels, with a strategy centered on big single products to drive overall category growth [5]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 29.91%, with a net profit margin of 11.34%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline in both metrics [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 28.30 billion, 33.56 billion, and 38.77 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17.33%, 18.59%, and 15.52% respectively [6][9]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.25 billion, 3.99 billion, and 4.81 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.45%, 23.0%, and 20.51% respectively [6][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.72, 0.89, and 1.07 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 15, and 12 times [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 2.412 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 291 million yuan, an increase of 39.01% year-on-year [2] - The company focuses on improving operational quality, with future growth expected from brand reinforcement of quail eggs, new product launches, and adjustments in online channels [1][2] Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.412 billion yuan, with a net profit of 291 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 261 million yuan [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 595 million yuan, a growth of 10.27%, but a net profit of 68 million yuan, which is a decline of 8.21% [2] Product Performance - Fish products continue to grow rapidly, with revenue of 1.533 billion yuan in 2024, up 18.76% year-on-year, while quail egg growth has slightly slowed [3] Channel Performance - Online channels saw a decline of 6.15% year-on-year, while offline channels grew by 22.58%, with direct sales channels increasing by 46.35% [4] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 30.47%, an increase of 2.30 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 12.17%, up 1.90 percentage points year-on-year [5] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.810 billion yuan, 3.250 billion yuan, and 3.828 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 330 million yuan, 395 million yuan, and 477 million yuan [6][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 2.412 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 291 million yuan, an increase of 39.01% year-on-year [2] - The company focuses on improving operational quality, with future growth expected from brand reinforcement of quail eggs, new product launches at Sam's Club, and the development of new product lines such as dried tofu [1][2][3] Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.412 billion yuan, with a net profit of 291 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 261 million yuan [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 595 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.27%, but the net profit decreased by 8.21% to 68 million yuan [2] Product Performance - Fish products continue to grow rapidly, with revenue of 1.533 billion yuan in 2024, up 18.76% year-on-year, while quail egg product growth has slightly slowed [3] Channel Performance - Online channels experienced a decline of 6.15% in 2024, while offline channels grew by 22.58%, with direct sales channels seeing a significant increase of 46.35% [4] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 30.47%, an increase of 2.30 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 12.17%, up 1.90 percentage points year-on-year [5]

Key Insights on Fixed Income Market - The bond market experienced a significant decline followed by a period of consolidation, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 15 basis points to 1.66% in April [2][3] - The supply of government bonds is expected to peak in May, with net supply projected to reach around 1.9 trillion yuan, comparable to levels seen in August of the previous year [3][4] - The central bank is likely to maintain a supportive stance on liquidity, with potential reverse repos and MLF net injections to counterbalance the impact of increased bond issuance [4][7] Key Insights on Artificial Intelligence Industry - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the importance of self-reliance and application-driven development in AI, marking a shift towards a focus on ecological construction and rule-setting in AI development [9][10] - The AI industry is expected to enter a golden window for commercialization from 2025 to 2030, with significant opportunities in various applications such as AIoT and embodied intelligence [10][11] - Key areas of focus include enhancing basic research, fostering collaboration between academia and industry, and strengthening the regulatory framework to prevent blind development in the AI sector [11] Key Insights on Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is witnessing a recovery in holdings, with public fund allocations increasing as the market stabilizes, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices [16][19] - The introduction of a new insurance payment model is expected to stimulate the development of innovative drugs, with the first version of the Class B drug list focusing on high-innovation products [17][19] - The medical device procurement market is experiencing significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 67.49% in Q1 2025, driven by domestic demand and the rise of local brands [18][19] Key Insights on Semiconductor Industry - The company reported a record high in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a 27.69% year-on-year increase in revenue to 7.356 billion yuan and a staggering 584.21% increase in net profit [22][23] - The growth is attributed to the strong performance of storage chips, with a gross margin of 40.27% and a focus on expanding into high-growth markets such as AI terminals and automotive electronics [23][24] - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the acceleration of AI applications, with plans to enhance its product offerings in the storage chip sector [25] Key Insights on Food Industry - The company demonstrated resilience with a 10.3% year-on-year increase in revenue to 600 million yuan in Q1 2025, despite a challenging market environment [28][29] - The strong performance of major product lines, particularly fish and bean products, contributed to revenue growth, supported by improved channel partnerships [28][30] - The company is focusing on brand development and product innovation to enhance its market position and drive long-term growth [30]