1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The current period shows a significant decline in apparent demand, with steel prices weakening and a notable drop in night - trading. Despite the May Day holiday factor, the decline is greater than in previous years. Steel prices weakened first while iron ore remained strong, leading to a lower steel - ore ratio. Considering high production, if demand weakens, steel mills are expected to cut production. With relatively low steel inventories, unilateral operations are recommended to be on hold for now. Arbitrage operations of going long on steel and short on raw materials can be considered[1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore was weakly running, affected by the news of crude steel production cuts. The price of iron ore is under continuous upward pressure. Fundamentally, this week's average daily hot metal production increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The social inventory of finished products generally increased, and the apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The profitability of steel mills improved slightly, and hot metal production may continue to stay high in the short term. Looking forward, the terminal demand for finished products determines the sustainability of high hot metal production. The marginal changes lie in exports and infrastructure. In reality, with high hot metal production, iron ore inventory is basically stable, but from May to June, overseas mines will increase shipments, and the subsequent supply - demand pressure for iron ore will increase. Coupled with the increasing expectation of crude steel production cuts, the iron ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure[3]. Coke - As of May 8, coke futures showed a volatile downward trend. The second round of spot price increases for coke has encountered resistance and is currently in a game stage. Considering the weak situation of coking coal, the second - round price increase may not materialize. After the holiday, the ex - factory price of coke will remain stable in the short term, and the port trade price will run weakly. On the supply side, due to the high hot metal production of downstream steel mills, coke enterprises have good orders, and their production and profits have improved. On the demand side, after the holiday, hot metal production remained above 245,000 tons per day, and steel mills replenished inventory as needed, without obvious inventory accumulation. It is necessary to pay attention to whether hot metal production will decline in the future. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants and steel mills has been decreasing, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. Although the fundamentals of coke have improved, the weakness of coking coal, over - capacity, and the lack of pricing power of coke enterprises are the main reasons for the weak decline of coke prices. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts[5]. Coking Coal - As of May 8, coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend. After the May Day holiday, the market auction was cold again, and the pattern of loose supply and demand was difficult to reverse in the short term. On the supply side, domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and production was at a relatively high level. In terms of imported coal, before the holiday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased significantly, and the import profit of seaborne coal continued to be negative. On the demand side, as the downstream blast furnaces and coking plants continued to operate, the inventory was still purchased on - demand. After the holiday, hot metal production remained above 245,000 tons per day. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be a decline in the future. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coal mines continued to accumulate at a high level, with pressure to reduce prices and sell. The port inventory decreased rapidly, and the downstream inventory was at a low level. Coal prices are still in a downward trend. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main factors causing the decline in coal prices. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts[5]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures' main contract oscillated. Spot traders mainly replenished stocks, and the willingness for speculative inventory was limited. Fundamentally, ferrosilicon production increased slightly month - on - month. After previous production cuts, the supply pressure was relieved, and factory inventories stopped increasing and started to decline. However, the overall inventory was still at a medium - high level. On the demand side, hot metal production remained high, steel mill profits were restored, and the social inventory of finished products increased while the apparent demand reached a peak and then declined. Attention should be paid to the subsequent marginal changes in exports. In non - steel demand, the pre - holiday inventory reduction of metal iron manufacturers supported prices, but downstream demand and procurement were low. At the same time, although overseas quotations were high, the trading volume decreased, and buyers had limited acceptance of high prices. In terms of cost, the price of semi - coke remained stable. With low inventory and reduced supply, the supply - demand contradiction was limited. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will oscillate in the short term[7]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese price continued to oscillate and explore downward, without macro - level fluctuations. Fundamentally, ferromanganese continued to cut production. Currently, the loss of manufacturers in Ningxia has deepened, and the production enthusiasm continued to weaken. Some factories in Inner Mongolia will conduct routine inspections, and most factories in Guangxi still maintain production and load reduction. With the arrival of the wet season in Yunnan, production increased slightly. On the demand side, hot metal production remained high, steel mill profits were restored, and the social inventory of finished products increased while the apparent demand reached a peak and then declined. Attention should be paid to the subsequent marginal changes in exports. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory still decreased significantly under production cuts, and the supply - demand contradiction deepened further. In terms of manganese ore, the global manganese ore shipments decreased month - on - month, and the short - term arrival volume remained high. The seaborne inventory of non - mainstream mines in China was at a high level. Currently, the import profit of port traders was negative, and manganese ore was under the pressure of negative feedback and potential supply release. It is expected that the ferromanganese price will oscillate weakly in the short term[7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in various regions decreased, and the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also declined. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed[1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of billets decreased, and the costs of various steel production processes changed. The profits of different regions and varieties of steel increased[1]. Production and Inventory - The average daily hot metal production increased slightly, and the production of five major steel products decreased. The inventory of five major steel products increased, and the inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased[1]. Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for steel decreased significantly, including the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils[1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The costs of different types of iron ore warehouse receipts decreased, and the prices and spreads of futures contracts changed. The spot prices of iron ore in ports decreased, and the prices of price indices increased slightly[3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports, global shipments, and monthly national import volume decreased[3]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills, the average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports, monthly national pig iron production, and monthly national crude steel production increased[3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports decreased slightly, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased[3]. Coke Price and Spread - The spot prices of coke in various regions remained unchanged, and the prices of coke futures contracts decreased. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed. The coking profit increased significantly[5]. Supply - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly[5]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased slightly[5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased, and the inventories of coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreased[5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The supply - demand gap of coke increased negatively, indicating a more serious oversupply situation[5]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The spot prices of coking coal in various regions remained unchanged, and the prices of coking coal futures contracts decreased. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed. The profit of sample coal mines decreased slightly[5]. Supply - The production of domestic coal mines increased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased. The import profit of seaborne coal was negative[5]. Demand - The demand for coking coal was mainly on - demand procurement, and hot metal production remained high[5]. Inventory - The inventory of coal mines continued to accumulate at a high level, the port inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory was at a low level[5]. Ferrosilicon Price and Spread - The price of the ferrosilicon futures' main contract increased slightly, and the spot prices in some regions remained unchanged while others decreased. The spread between the ferrosilicon and ferromanganese main contracts decreased[7]. Cost and Profit - The costs of ferrosilicon production in different regions remained stable, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased[7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises increased[7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production and operating rate of ferrosilicon - chromium decreased[7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased, and the average number of available days for downstream ferrosilicon decreased[7]. Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The price of the ferromanganese futures' main contract increased significantly, and the spot prices in various regions decreased. The spreads between different regions and the main contract changed[7]. Cost and Profit - The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port changed, and the costs of ferromanganese production in different regions decreased slightly[7]. Supply - The global manganese ore shipments increased slightly, the arrival volume increased significantly, and the port inventory decreased[7]. Demand - The weekly production of ferromanganese decreased, and the operating rate decreased. The demand for ferromanganese from steel mills remained high[7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average number of available days for ferromanganese increased[7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports Group 2: Report Core Views - **Steel**: Last Friday, there was news of a 50 million - ton production cut in 2025. Steel prices strengthened on Friday night and continued the slightly stronger trend on Monday. Raw materials weakened and the disk profit expanded. The apparent demand has peaked and there is an expectation of weakening in the far - end demand. Inventory has fallen to a seasonal low while production remains high. If the demand declines month - on - month, the near - end prices are expected to catch up with the decline. Steel mills need to reduce production to match the demand. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials in the second - nearest month [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by the production restriction news, iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure. The daily average pig iron output has increased significantly this week, and it is expected to peak. Whether it can remain at a high level depends on the end - demand. The supply of iron ore has a slight increase in global shipments and a significant decline in arrivals. The port inventory has increased. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure [4]. - **Coke**: The coke futures showed a downward - fluctuating trend. The second - round spot price increase of coking plants was blocked. Due to the concession of coking coal, the losses of coking enterprises have been repaired, and some have resumed production slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has also increased with the increase in pig iron output. However, there is a possibility that pig iron output will peak. The inventory is at a medium - high level with some pressure. It is recommended to adopt the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures showed a downward - fluctuating trend. The spot market is generally stable but weak. The domestic coal mines continue to resume production, and the port clearance has declined. The demand from the coking industry has increased slightly. The total inventory has decreased slightly. There is still a large impact from imported coal, and the market is expected to decline. It is recommended to focus on arbitrage and adopt the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [7]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The silicon ferrosilicon futures fluctuated narrowly. After the production cut, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the overall downward space is limited. The production has continued to decline, and the inventory has stopped increasing and started to decrease, but it remains at a medium - high level. The short - term supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, but the factory inventory is high, and the price lacks the impetus to rebound. It is expected to fluctuate steadily [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese futures continued to decline. The production reduction has remained stable. The losses of manufacturers in Ningxia have deepened, and most manufacturers are still reducing production. The inventory has increased. The short - term supply - demand contradiction needs to be resolved, and the cost support from manganese ore is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some steel products have changed, such as the spot price of rebar in the South China region decreased by 30 yuan/ton, while the 05 contract of rebar increased by 35 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 12 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 4.2 to 244.4 (1.8% increase), and the output of five major steel products increased by 3.1 to 875.8 (0.4% increase) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 50.4 to 1534.3 (- 3.2% decrease), and the rebar inventory decreased by 30.8 to 702.3 (- 4.2% decrease) [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building material trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 12.0 (- 0.7% decrease), and the apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 22.4 to 926.3 (- 2.4% decrease) [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost of some iron ore varieties has changed, such as the PB powder increased by 3.3 to 809.6 (0.4% increase) [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 200.2 to 2325.3 (- 7.9% decrease), and the global shipment volume increased by 17.8 to 2925.5 (0.6% increase) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 4.2 to 244.4 (1.8% increase), and the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 18.4 to 327.9 (5.9% increase) [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 79.6 to 14261.0 (0.6% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 20.1 to 9073.0 (0.2% increase) [4]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1318, and the 05 contract of coke increased by 4 to 1566 (0.2% increase) [7]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.5 to 66.9 (2.3% increase) [7]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 4.2 to 244.4 (1.8% increase) [7]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 3.0 to 1014.8 (- 0.3% decrease), and the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.4 to 104.9 (- 2.2% decrease) [7]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 0.5 to - 4.0 (- 11.5% decrease) [7]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1145, and the 05 contract of coking coal decreased by 9 to 881 (- 1.0% decrease) [7]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 4.7 to 878.2 (- 0.5% decrease) [7]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.5 to 66.9 (2.3% increase) [7]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly, with the inventory of upstream mines increasing and the port inventory decreasing [7]. Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon ferrosilicon main contract increased by 8 to 5648 (0.1% increase), and the spot price of silicon ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5550 [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 16.2 to 5750.1 (- 0.3% decrease), and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 10 to 620 (1.6% increase) [8]. - **Production**: The weekly output of silicon ferrosilicon decreased by 0.1 to 9.9 (- 1.4% decrease), and the operating rate of silicon ferrosilicon production enterprises decreased by 1.5 to 30.9 (- 4.6% decrease) [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for silicon ferrosilicon (calculated by Steel Union) remained unchanged at 21 [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample silicon ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 1.1 to 8.4 (- 11.8% decrease) [8]. Silicon Manganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 8 to 5804 (0.1% increase), and the spot price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 to 5680 (- 0.4% decrease) [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased by 12 to 5681 (0.2% increase) [8]. - **Supply**: The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 0.7 to 78.8 (0.9% increase), and the arrival volume increased by 33.6 to 65.3 (106.3% increase) [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for silicon manganese (calculated by Steel Union) increased by 0.0 to 127 (0.3% increase) [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises increased by 2.4 to 18.2 (15.4% increase) [8].