| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年8月25日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3280 | 3300 | -20 | 85 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3270 | 3280 | -10 | 75 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3390 | 3410 | -20 | 195 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3230 | 3239 | -g | 50 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3119 | 3121 | -2 | 161 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3195 | 3200 | -5 | 85 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3400 | 3420 | -20 | 48 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3360 | 3370 | -10 | 8 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

交易行情热点 热点一：原油走势震荡，后市分歧加剧 本周原油价格整体呈现宽幅震荡态势，未延续此前偏弱走势。布伦特原油本周上涨2.51%，收67.79美 元/桶；美原油上涨1.00%，收63.77美元/桶。 油价反弹受多空因素交织影响。在供应方面，OPEC月报数据显示，OPEC+7月份石油日产量增加了26.3 万桶，达到2754万桶，说明该组织逐步释放增产的产能，但仍旧低于增产计划，这在一定程度上缓解了 市场的供应担忧情绪。而据EIA数据，截至8月15日当周美国国内原油产量环比增加，产量有触底反弹 的态势，又令原油供应压力加大。 在需求方面，美国EIA原油库存超预期下降，需求端在短期内仍存在季节性改善的迹象，对油价形成支 撑；汽油总产量引申需求环比小幅回升，但整体处于近几年平均值附近，表明炼厂提负带动原油消费， 但是成品油消费增速有待改善。中国地炼预计在9月初迎来开工率爬坡周期，一定程度上可带动原油消 费。 具体来看，8月20日晚间，美国EIA数据显示，美国截至8月15日当周原油库存减少601.4万桶，预期为减 少175.9万桶，较过去五年均值低了5.07%；汽油库存减少272万桶，预期为减少91.5万桶；精炼油 ...

| | | | 11/11/2 | SDIC FUTURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月21日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證時 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面弱势震荡。 本周螺纹表需有所回升，产量继续回落，库存延续上升态势。热卷需求继续好转，产量同步回升，库存继 续累积。铁水维持高位，市场面临负反馈压力，不过库存整体水平偏低，空间并不是太大，阅兵临近关注唐山等地限产力度。 从下游行业看，地产销售降幅扩大，投资端继续大幅下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Suggest a wait - and - see approach for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - After previous adjustments, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products. It is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. - For coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products decreased slightly, such as the prices of hot - rolled coils in different regions and some futures contracts of rebar [1]. Cost and Profit - The costs of some steel production processes decreased, while the profits of hot - rolled coils in some regions increased slightly, and the profits of rebar decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased slightly, but the rebar output decreased. The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased [1]. Market Outlook - The rebar data has deteriorated, with a significant decline in August demand. The hot - rolled coil supply and demand are stable. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed slightly [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The demand side shows that the iron water output remains at a high level, but the downstream demand has declined [4]. Inventory - The port inventory increased slightly, the steel mill's equity ore inventory increased, and the inventory available days of some steel mills increased [4]. Market Outlook - In August, the iron water output will decline slightly. After the previous adjustment, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [6]. Supply and Demand - The coking enterprise's production increased slightly, and the demand side shows that the blast furnace iron water output fluctuates at a high level. The supply of coking coal has increased, and the downstream demand has slowed down [6]. Inventory - The coke inventory decreased overall, and the coking coal inventory is at a medium level with different trends in different sectors [6]. Market Outlook - The seventh round of coke price increase is still expected. For both coke and coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6].

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - Hot-rolled coil prices broke through the support level, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from August to September. It is recommended to try shorting the October hot-rolled coil contract at 3380 - 3400 [1]. - Currently, steel mill production remains at a high level. Seasonal decline in rebar demand in August has led to an increase in inventory, with production higher than apparent demand. After the previous price increase, funds are betting on a decline in demand in the second half of the year [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly on a week-on-week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to recover [3]. - Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the second half of the month, the molten iron output in August will decline slightly from the high level, with an average expected to be maintained at around 2.36 million tons per day. Steel mill inventory is increasing, and the restocking demand has weakened. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coke, due to tight supply and demand, downstream steel mills still have restocking demand. There is still an expectation of a seventh round of price increase for coke. The futures price of coke is at a premium to the spot price, providing a hedging opportunity. The cost support of coking coal has weakened, and the previous bullish expectations may have been fully overdrawn [5]. - For coking coal, the spot fundamentals have returned to stable operation. The previous futures price increase has already factored in the expectation of coal mine production restrictions. It is recommended to short on rallies for speculation and conduct a reverse spread trade for the 9 - 1 contract [5]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices generally declined. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar widened to around 290 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased, while slab prices remained unchanged. The costs of various steelmaking processes decreased, and the profits of different regions and varieties also declined [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output and the output of five major steel products increased slightly, while the rebar output decreased slightly. The output of hot-rolled coils increased slightly [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased significantly, while the inventory of hot-rolled coils increased slightly [1]. Transaction and Demand - The transaction volume of building materials and the apparent demand of five major steel products and rebar decreased, while the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils increased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 contract increased. The 5 - 9 spread increased slightly, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased slightly [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports and the global weekly shipment volume increased significantly, and the monthly national import volume also increased [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills and the daily average port clearance volume increased slightly, while the monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased [3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills increased, and the number of available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and declined. The prices of some coking coal varieties in the spot market decreased, while the prices of coke increased after the sixth round of price increase and the seventh round of price increase was initiated [5]. Supply - The coke production increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, and the production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly. The raw coal production decreased slightly, and the clean coal production increased slightly [5]. Demand - The molten iron output increased slightly, and the coke production increased slightly. The demand for coking coal and coke remains resilient, but the restocking demand has weakened [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased, with the inventory in coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreasing. The coking coal inventory decreased in coking plants and steel mills, increased slightly in ports, and the inventory in coal mines decreased at a slower pace [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The second - round China - US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one. The TMT sector rose strongly, and the stock index increased with heavy trading volume. However, the improvement in corporate earnings needs to be verified by the upcoming mid - year report data [2]. - Multiple negative factors such as the central bank's mention of "preventing idle funds from circulating" in the second - quarter monetary policy report, the strong performance of the stock market, and the tightening of funds during the tax payment period led to a significant decline in bond futures. The bond market sentiment remains weak [2]. - The meeting of US, Ukrainian, and European leaders brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which increased risk appetite and caused precious metals to rise and then fall. Gold and silver prices are in a range - bound state [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak and volatile state, and the short position of the October contract should be continued to hold [2]. - Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore follows the price fluctuations of steel, while some coal prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are in a narrow - range or weak - range fluctuation, and different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [2]. - The energy and chemical sectors show different trends. Some products are in a range - bound state, while others are facing supply - demand pressures and are recommended for short - selling or other strategies [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends, such as the upward trend of palm oil and the weakening trend of corn [2]. - Special commodities like glass are in a weak state, and new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate need to pay attention to policy and supply - related factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose with heavy volume, but the improvement in earnings needs mid - year report data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6600 at high prices and have a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors led to a decline in bond futures. The bond market is in an unfavorable situation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through call options at the low - price stage after price corrections. Silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or build a bullish spread strategy with options [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. The 10 - month contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar should pay attention to the support levels of 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, and the port inventory and port clearance improved. It follows the price fluctuations of steel, and it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the exchange's intervention, the futures price peaked and declined, and some coal prices weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coke**: The sixth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the seventh - round price increase is in progress. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuated downward due to the additional tariff on aluminum. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan and fluctuates within the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan [2]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [2]. - **Nickel**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract fluctuates in a narrow range, with cost support but demand drag, and fluctuates within the range of 12800 - 13500 yuan [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term geopolitical risk is the main factor. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and expand the spread between the October - November/December contracts. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [2]. - **Urea**: The Indian tender news has a certain boost to the market. If there are no more positive factors after the price rebound, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 6600 - 6900 range and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is low, and the cost support is limited. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 4600 - 4800 range and conduct a reverse spread operation on TA1 - 5 at high prices [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term driver. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the 6300 - 6500 range [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production reduction effect is obvious, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at a low price [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply of MEG is gradually returning, and it is expected to follow the fluctuations of commodities. It is in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream buyers are purchasing well, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand pressure is still high, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventory. It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the cost support is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds within the 7200 - 7400 range [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is in a range - bound state, and the supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to hold the seller position of the short - term put option BR2509 - P - 11400 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is in a short - term volatile state [2]. - **PP**: The spot price has little change, and the trading volume has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on the short position in the 7200 - 7300 range [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is continuously tightening, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations within 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The cost support is strong, and a long - term bullish expectation remains. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the January contract [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a low - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production release [2]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is emerging, and the futures price is in a weak state. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is rising, and the domestic palm oil price is following the upward trend. It is expected to reach the 10000 - yuan mark in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. It is recommended to reduce the short position established at the previous high price [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. It is recommended to reduce the short position [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak. It is bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing apples. The main contract is around 8250 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The price is stable. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices and focus on short - term trading [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The industry is in a negative feedback cycle, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to hold the short position [2]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material price increase during the peak production period [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in production capacity [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in policy expectations [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is subject to continuous disturbances, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. It is recommended to be cautious and try to go long with a light position at a low price [2].

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Recently, rebar production increased and inventory accumulated while apparent demand declined. The rebar basis weakened, but the hot-rolled coil basis was relatively strong. In the medium term, steel mill production remains high, and demand seasonally declines in August, leading to inventory increases. There is an expectation of production cuts in mid - to late August. In the short term, steel mill inventory pressure is not significant, and production cuts can relieve the pressure on the peak season from high production and trader inventory. Steel prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillations, and the market needs to wait for clear peak - season demand. Support levels for hot - rolled coil and rebar are around 3400 yuan/ton and 3150 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. Fundamentally, global iron ore shipments increased significantly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rebound. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, the amount of maintenance decreased slightly, and hot metal production increased slightly at a high level, remaining around 240 million tons per day. However, downstream apparent demand decreased month - on - month. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased slightly, the port clearance volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mill equity ore inventory increased month - on - month. Considering production cuts by Hebei steel mills in the second half of the month, hot metal production in August is expected to decline slightly at a high level, with an average of around 236 million tons per day. Steel mill profits support raw materials, and there is a seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore. Due to the off - season and weakening steel apparent demand, recent finished steel prices fell again, and iron ore followed suit. It is recommended to short at high prices [3]. Coke - The coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, and prices fluctuated sharply recently. The sixth round of price increases was implemented, and the seventh round started on the 19th. On the supply side, due to the implementation of price increases, coking profits improved, and coke enterprise operations increased slightly. On the demand side, blast furnace hot metal fluctuated at a high level, and downstream demand remained resilient. It is expected that hot metal production will decline slightly in August. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventory continued to decrease, port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased. Overall inventory is at a medium level. Due to tight supply and demand, downstream steel mills still have restocking needs, and there is still an expectation for the seventh round of coke price increases. Coke futures are at a premium to the spot, providing hedging opportunities [5]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, and prices fluctuated sharply recently. Spot auction prices for some coal types loosened, and Mongolian coal quotes were weakly stable. Domestic coking coal auctions weakened, and after a rapid price increase, downstream purchasing willingness declined, with some coal types experiencing price drops, but overall it remained stable. On the supply side, coal mine operations decreased month - on - month, shipments slowed down, and coal mines started to slightly reduce prices to make concessions, easing market supply and demand. Coal mine de - stocking slowed down significantly. In terms of imports, Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with futures, and due to high prices, downstream users were cautious about restocking. On the demand side, coking operations increased slightly, blast furnace hot metal production fluctuated at a high level, and downstream restocking demand slowed down. Considering production cuts by Hebei steel mills before the parade, hot metal production in August may decline to around 236 million tons per day. In terms of inventory, coal mine de - stocking slowed down, port inventory at the border increased slightly, port inventory decreased, and downstream restocking demand weakened. Overall inventory is at a medium level [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and futures prices decreased by 32 - 34 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and futures prices decreased by 19 - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and plate billet prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan, and the cost of converter rebar increased by 5 yuan. Profits for hot - rolled coil in different regions showed different changes, with East China increasing by 13 yuan, North China decreasing by 7 yuan, and South China increasing by 3 yuan. Rebar profits in different regions also had different trends [1]. Production and Inventory - Daily average hot metal production increased by 0.2 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 2.4 to 871.6 million tons, a 0.3% increase. Rebar production decreased by 0.7 to 220.5 million tons, a 0.3% decrease. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 to 315.6 million tons, a 0.2% increase. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 40.6 to 1416.0 million tons, a 3.0% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 30.5 to 587.2 million tons, a 5.5% increase. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.8 to 357.5 million tons, a 0.2% increase [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased slightly, and the 01 - contract basis of various iron ore types increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 3.5 to - 40.0, a 9.6% decrease, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.0 to 18.0, a 12.5% increase, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 1.5 to 22.0, a 7.3% increase [3]. Supply and Demand - Weekly global iron ore shipments increased by 359.9 to 3406.6 million tons, an 11.8% increase. The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 94.7 to 2476.6 million tons, a 4.0% increase. The monthly national iron ore import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8 million tons, an 8.0% increase. The weekly average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase. The weekly average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 12.8 to 334.7 million tons, a 4.0% increase. The monthly national pig iron production decreased by 110.5 to 7080.0 million tons, a 1.5% decrease, and the monthly national crude steel production decreased by 352.4 to 7966.0 million tons, a 4.2% decrease [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 13.2 to 13819.27 million tons, a 0.1% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 123.1 to 9136.4 million tons, a 1.4% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0 days, a 5.0% increase [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices declined. The 09 - contract of coke decreased by 1.1%, and the 01 - contract decreased by 1.6%. The 09 - contract of coking coal decreased by 4.2%, and the 01 - contract decreased by 3.5%. The basis of coke and coking coal contracts changed, and spreads between different contracts also changed [5]. Supply and Demand - Coke production: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4 million tons, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase. Coking coal production: Raw coal production decreased by 2.3 to 856.6 million tons, a 0.3% decrease, and clean coal production increased by 0.4 to 439.4 million tons, a 0.14% increase. Coke demand: The hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase [5]. Inventory - Coke inventory: Total coke inventory decreased by 19.7 to 887.4 million tons, a 2.2% decrease. The inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.2 to 62.5 million tons, a 10.4% decrease, the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.5 to 609.8 million tons, a 1.54% decrease, and port inventory decreased by 3.0 to 215.1 million tons, a 1.4% decrease. Coking coal inventory: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.2 to 111.9 million tons, a 0.1% decrease, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 11.0 to 976.9 million tons, a 1.1% decrease, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.9 to 805.8 million tons, a 0.4% decrease, and port inventory decreased by 21.9 to 255.5 million tons, a 7.9% decrease [5].

证券之星消息，8月18日焦炭板块较上一交易日上涨0.16%，安泰集团领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3728.03，上涨0.85%。深证成指报收于11835.57，上涨1.73%。焦炭板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600408 | 安泰集团 | 2.23 | 1.36% | 26.16万 | 5827.92万 | | 600725 | 云维股份 | 3.33 | 0.91% | 21.09万 | 7038.47万 | | 000723 | 美锦能源 | 4.62 | 0.65% | 69.48万 | 3.22亿 | | 601011 | 宝泰隆 | 2.74 | 0.00% | 32.14万 | 8828.29万 | | 601015 | 陕西黑猫 | 3.57 | 0.00% | 24.20万 | 8705.73万 | | 600792 | 云煤能源 | 3.74 | -0.27% | 19.24万 | 7201.06万 | | 600740 | 山西焦化 | ...

Group 1 - The company, Meijin Energy, is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and improve its international market competitiveness [1] - Meijin Energy's main business includes the production and sale of coal, coke, natural gas, chemical products, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, with a coal production capacity of 6.3 million tons per year [1] - The company reported a total operating revenue of 19.031 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.55% year-on-year, and a net loss of 1.143 billion yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [2] Group 2 - Meijin Energy has been transitioning towards hydrogen energy, establishing a complete industrial ecosystem for hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and application, with 3,591 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles promoted by the end of 2024 [2] - The company aims to enhance its hydrogen and fuel cell technology reserves through investments in advanced manufacturing and new energy industries, focusing on innovative opportunities in areas like autonomous driving and hydrogen storage technology [3] - The company plans to continue cost reduction and efficiency improvement in its traditional business while accelerating the commercialization of the hydrogen industry chain [3]