双焦 2026年1月双焦基本面月报 红塔期货 研究员：赵欧娅 从业资格号：F3067732 投资咨询号：Z0017180 Email：zhaoouya@hongtaqh.com 投资咨询业务资格 云证监许可[2012]291号 仅作参考，请仔细阅读文件末尾【免责声明】 双焦基本面概述 宏观因素 全球流动性趋松 海外主要经济体货币政策趋向宽松为市场提供了流动性支持；国内十五五"规划开局之年，在经济增长承压背景下，积极的 财政政策有望靠前发力，赤字率预计维持较高水平，并辅以适度的货币宽松。 供需情况 需求弱势抑制价格 1月，炼焦煤市场，供需对价格支撑难有明显带动，价格端仍是承压，需关注补库强度带动市场情绪，是否能带动价格企稳反 弹；焦炭市场，高库存和供需宽松格局大概率还是继续抑制着价格空间，而终端钢材淡季需求疲软继续加剧着供需失衡。 国内市场：宏观政策靠前发力。 12月中国制造业PMI录得50.1%，环比上升0.9个百分点，逆周期扩张力度显著，时隔8个月重回扩张区间。同期，非制造业PMI回升至 50.2%，其中建筑业指数大幅上涨3.2个百分点至52.8%，重返扩张区间，而服务业指数仅微升0.2个百分点至49.7% ...

智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，2025年全A涨幅的27.65%中，盈利贡献5.29%，估值贡献20.44%，股息贡献1.91%。从一级行业来看，盈利成为 决定2025年各行业表现的"分水岭"。涨幅居前的有色、AI硬件(通信、电子)、新能源、机械等，盈利均有较多贡献。而涨幅靠后的消费、地产链、红利 等，也基本上均由盈利拖累。二级行业看，涨幅居前的二级行业盈利贡献大多为正，而军工(航天装备、地面兵装、军工电子)、冶钢原料、装修装饰盈利 贡献为负，主要受估值驱动。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 2025年全A涨幅的27.65%中，盈利贡献5.29%，估值贡献20.44%，股息贡献1.91%。 A股二级行业看，涨幅居前的二级行业盈利贡献大多为正，而军工(航天装备、地面兵装、军工电子)、冶钢原料、装修装饰盈利贡献为负，主要受估值驱 动。涨幅落后的二级行业盈利贡献大多为负，而非白酒、乘用车、轨交设备、通信服务、房地产服务、白色家电、汽车服务盈利贡献为正，主要受估值拖 累。 2025年恒生综指涨幅的30.98%中，盈利贡献-1.2%，估值贡献28.99%，股息贡献3.2%。 A股一级行业来看，盈利成为决定2025年各行 ...

证券之星消息，1月7日焦炭板块较上一交易日上涨4.61%，陕西黑猫领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4085.77，上涨0.05%。深证成指报收于14030.56，上涨0.06%。焦炭板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601015 | 陕西黑猫 | 4.07 | 10.00% | 136.68万 | | 5.40 Z | | 600408 | 安泰集团 | 4.55 | 9.90% | 210.46万 | | 9.31亿 | | 601011 | 宝泰隆 | 3.58 | 6.23% | 162.64万 | | 5.69亿 | | 600792 | 云煤能源 | 4.23 | 6.02% | 76.66万 | | 3.17亿 | | 600740 | 山西焦化 | 4.07 | 5.99% | 72.50万 | | 2.88亿 | | 000723 | 美锦能源 | 4.97 | 1.64% | 141.64万 | | 6.99亿 | | 600725 ...

1月7日，美锦能源盘中上涨2.04%，截至14:18，报4.99元/股，成交5.67亿元，换手率2.62%，总市值 219.73亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入2233.42万元，特大单买入5097.05万元，占比8.99%，卖出3644.43万 元，占比6.43%；大单买入1.29亿元，占比22.70%，卖出1.21亿元，占比21.33%。 截至9月30日，美锦能源股东户数23.40万，较上期减少5.91%；人均流通股18791股，较上期增加 6.29%。2025年1月-9月，美锦能源实现营业收入129.75亿元，同比减少9.71%；归母净利润-7.37亿元， 同比减少12.57%。 分红方面，美锦能源A股上市后累计派现19.76亿元。近三年，累计派现0.00元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，美锦能源十大流通股东中，国泰中证煤炭ETF（515220）位居第 二大流通股东，持股1.22亿股，相比上期增加7394.42万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第五大流 通股东，持股4482.06万股，相比上期减少93.01万股。香港中央结算有限公司位居第六大流通股东，持 股3109.79万股 ...

2、基差：现货市场价1100，基差4；现货升水期货；中性 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-1-7） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：节后部分前期停产检修煤矿陆续复产，区域内供应小幅增量，煤矿产量较节前有所改善。 考虑到焦炭价格有继续降价预期，双焦市场情绪偏弱，煤矿线下报价均有不同程度下跌。且线上成交仍 不理想，竞拍底价多有下调，成交价格跌多涨少；偏空 6、预期：钢厂目前利润得到一定的回升，但整体利润仍较低，对高价煤种资源抵触情绪仍存，且对焦 炭还有第五轮提降的预期，因此下游企业采购依旧谨慎，目前多控制原料到货节奏，按需采购为主，预 计短 ...

证券之星消息，1月6日焦炭板块较上一交易日上涨2.53%，美锦能源领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4083.67，上涨1.5%。深证成指报收于14022.55，上涨1.4%。焦炭板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000723 | 美锦能源 | 4.89 | 3.38% | 106.08万 | 5.12 乙 | | 601011 | 宝泰隆 | 3.37 | 3.06% | 74.77万 | 2.51亿 | | 600408 | 安泰集团 | 4.14 | 2.73% | 84.19万 | 3.46 Z | | 600792 | 云煤能源 | 3.99 | 2.57% | 23.27万 | 9223.87万 | | 601015 | 陕西黑猫 | 3.70 | 2.21% | 34.39万 | 1.26亿 | | 600740 | 山西焦化 | 3.84 | 1.59% | 19.05万 | 7282.08万 | | 600725 | 云维股份 | 4.22 | 0. ...

上市企业：国际实业（000159）,美锦能源（000723）,蓝焰控股（000968）,山西焦煤（000983）,长春燃 气（600333）,安泰集团（600408）,云维股份（600725） 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国焦炭行业投资战略分析及发展前景研究报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年11月中国焦炭产量为0.4亿吨，同比增长2.3%；2025年1-11月中国焦 炭累计产量为4.6亿吨，累计增长3.2%。 2020-2025年1-11月中国焦炭产量统计图 ...

钢材：供需压力逐步累积，钢价或将震荡偏弱 来源：市场资讯 （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 需求：1—11月全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，降幅较1-10月扩大0.9个百分点；其中房地产开发投资 同比下降15.9%，降幅较1-10月扩大1.2个百分点；基建投资同比下降1.1%，降幅较1-10月扩大1个百分 点；制造业投资增长1.9%，增幅较1-9月收窄0.8个百分点。投资增速延续全面下行态势，钢材需求表现 低迷。12月螺纹周均表需208万吨，环比11月回落7%；12月热卷周均表需308万吨，环比11月回落3%。 12月钢材需求表现整体符合季节性特征，同比基本维持稳定。1月份随着气温进一步下降及春节临近， 国内钢材市场需求将明显走弱。 供应：1-11月我国粗钢产量分别为89167万吨和77405万吨，同比分别下降4%和2.3%；其中11月粗钢和 生铁产量分别为6987万吨和6234万吨，同比分别下降10.9%和下降8.7%。12月247家铁水产量明显回 落，12月末日均铁水产量为226.58万吨，较11月末下降8.1万吨。12月五大材、螺纹、热卷产量均出现下 降，五大 ...

策 略 研 究 策 华福证券 2026 年 01 月 04 日 看好恒科——产业经济周观点 团队成员 投资要点： 近期观点 略 定 期 报 告 1、 "十五五"开局之年，财政前置发力与流动性宽松有望形成 共振。 2、 地产预期改善，市场或对于经济延续回暖信心增强。 3、 外部仍需关注美元可能阶段性走强所指引的风险信号，随后 可能出现美元美债美股三杀。 4、 中国市场有望在海外风险释放过程中进行风格上的长期大切 换，同时伴随人民币持续大幅升值。 5、 短期科技成长有望成为核心进攻方向，建议关注恒生科技、 商业航天、机器人。 6、 长期看好保险，央国企红利，反内卷行业，中概互联网，军 贸。 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、美股圣诞行情引领市场创新高——2025.12.29 2、住建会议定调 2026 房地产——2025.12.29 3、八连阳，躁动布局正当时——2025.12.28 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the reports [1][3][6][7][8] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Yesterday's steel prices remained stable. Steel production continued to decrease and inventories declined. There was a large supply - demand gap for rebar, with good inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coil inventory reduction was still slow. Seasonal decline in apparent demand led to weak demand. Although production cuts and strong raw materials supported steel prices to repair upwards from low levels, the weak demand limited the upward drive. Rebar price fluctuations were expected to be in the 3000 - 3200 range, and hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range. It was recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1] Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the 09 iron ore contract fluctuated. In terms of fundamentals, the supply side was in the shipping peak season, with some mines ramping up production at the end of the year. Although the arrival volume decreased slightly, it was still at a high level in the same period of history. Based on shipping calculations, the arrival volume would remain high in the next two weeks, but it would enter the off - season in the first quarter of next year, and the impact of weather on supply needed attention. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained flat week - on - week, at a historically low level. Some steel mills resumed production, while others were under maintenance. The profitability of steel mills improved, but due to the off - season and many overhauls, the subsequent resumption of production was expected to be limited. In terms of inventory, iron ore inventory was at a high level in the same period, and it would continue to accumulate due to high future arrival volumes and low off - port volume in the off - season. Although the short - term resumption of molten iron production was limited, winter storage and pre - festival restocking might support the ore price. In the future, iron ore would transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand weakness. The price was capped by high inventory, and the demand could not absorb the supply increase when priced above $110 in the off - season. There was support from the restocking expectation of steel mills with low inventory. In the short term, the focus was on the molten iron trend and the restocking rhythm of steel mills, and in the long term, on the negotiation situation. It was expected that the iron ore price would fluctuate strongly. Short - term operations were recommended, with the reference range of 770 - 840 [3] Coke Industry - Yesterday, the coke futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the third round of price cuts for coke was implemented on December 22, and the fourth round was launched on the 29th. The port price fell in advance and was currently stable with a weak trend. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market showed mixed trends, and the auction prices of various coal types showed signs of bottom - rebounding. Coke price adjustment lagged behind coking coal, squeezing the coking profit and reducing the start - up rate. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, molten iron output declined, and steel prices fluctuated at a low level, with the intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. Coke supply - demand weakened. The coke futures fell in advance, and the spot price decline referred to the coking coal decline space. For strategies, after three rounds of spot price cuts, the basis weakened, and the expected - driven rebound was difficult to sustain. It was recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [6] Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, the coking coal futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal turned to a mixed trend, Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with futures, the auction failure rate rebounded again recently, and traders were cautious about restocking. The thermal coal market continued to decline. On the supply side, near the end of the year, coking coal production might continue to decline; for imported coal, the port inventory was at a high level at the end of the year, and mines carried out shipping volume ramping up. On the demand side, steel mill losses and maintenance decreased, and molten iron output remained stable, but the coking profit declined, the daily output of coking plants decreased slightly, and the market's restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, coke enterprises, mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. The policy focused on ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants. For strategies, the rebound expectation was over - priced in advance. Unilateral operations were recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon price continued to be strong, breaking through the previous pressure level, and the spot market was also strong, with discussions about capacity elimination in Shaanxi. On the supply side, this week's ferrosilicon production continued to decline, but the decline narrowed compared with the previous period. The production cuts were mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu, while production in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai increased slightly. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. In terms of non - steel demand, downstream restocking increased near the end of the month, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. In terms of exports, overseas inquiries and transactions were okay near Christmas, but the acceptance of high prices was insufficient, and there were still impacts from the re - export trade of Russia and North Korea. On the cost side, the semi - coke price decreased slightly, and low - cost power regions had an advantage. Looking forward, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needed to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation was priced in. The improvement expectation of the demand side was insufficient, and the price lacked upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the expectation change and the semi - coke price. In the short term, the price was expected to fluctuate within the range of 5650 - 5900 [8] - Ferromanganese: Recently, ferromanganese was strongly running, and the spot market was stable. On the supply side, the production increased slightly, and the supply remained at a normal level in the same period of history. Recently, new capacities in Inner Mongolia were released, and the short - term production still had room for growth. There were rumors of production cuts in Guangxi and Guizhou, but they were not implemented. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. The price - pressing sentiment of steel mills in the copper - aluminum industry was strong. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory remained at a high level, and the inflection point had not appeared, and the supply - demand contradiction still existed. On the cost side, the manganese ore price was stable, and some overseas mines raised their January quotes. The low - inventory situation supported the ore price. Overall, ferromanganese was in a state of self - supply surplus but relatively balanced in the whole market. The manganese ore supported the ferromanganese price, and the key was the production cut amplitude and the end - year winter storage restocking expectation of steel mills. The short - term supply - demand contradiction was priced in, and there was no clear trend - reversal signal. It was expected that the price would fluctuate downward. The strategy was mainly range - trading, with the reference range of 5700 - 6000 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3300 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 increased by 4 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China and South China remained unchanged, while the North China price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and 3 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2940 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 3209 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 226.5 tons, with no significant change. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons. Rebar production increased by 2.7 tons to 184.4 tons, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.6 tons to 293.5 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons to 1258.0 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons to 434.3 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 377.2 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 2.5 to 11.3, a decrease of 20.8%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 1.7 to 833.6 tons, rebar apparent demand decreased by 6.0 to 202.7 tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 8.8 to 307.0 tons [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed different trends. The 05 - contract basis of some iron ore powders increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.0 to 22.0, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 20.0 [3] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swaps remained unchanged, while the Platts 62% Fe increased by 1.0 to 107.9 [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons to 2646.7 tons, the global shipping volume decreased by 128.0 tons to 3464.5 tons, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons [3] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average off - port volume increased by 1.6 to 315.1 tons, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons to 15858.66 tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 136.2 tons to 8860.2 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 19.0 [3] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract decreased by 6, and the 05 contract increased by 35. The coking profit decreased by 11 [6] Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) price remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [6] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 12.2 tons to 912.6 tons, the all - sample coking plant coke inventory increased by 1.1 tons to 92.2 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased by 8.5 tons to 642.2 tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.5 tons to 178.2 tons [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remained at - 0.2 tons [6] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract increased by 35, and the 05 contract increased by 32. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 1 [7] Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price remained unchanged at 230 US dollars/ton, the Jingtang Port Australian main - coking coal ex - warehouse price increased by 20 to 1560 yuan/ton, and the Guangzhou Port Australian thermal coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 1.9 to 698 yuan/ton [7] Supply - The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons [7] Demand - The all - sample coking plant daily average output decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [7] Inventory Changes - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 134.9 tons, the all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 3.4 tons to 1039.7 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 806.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 13.3 tons to 299.5 tons [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon: The spot prices in different regions increased to varying degrees, and the main - contract closing price increased by 74 to 5676 yuan/ton. Ferromanganese: The spot prices in different regions also increased, and the main - contract closing price increased by 80 to 5862 yuan/ton [8] Cost and Profit - Ferrosilicon: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the production profit increased. Ferromanganese: The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port remained stable, and the production costs in different regions remained unchanged [8] Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 15 to 85.2 tons, the arrival volume increased by 2.5 to 40.8 tons, and the off - port volume decreased by 3.5 to 55.7 tons [8] Supply - Ferrosilicon: The production decreased slightly, and the production enterprise start - up rate decreased. Ferromanganese: The start - up rate increased, and the production increased [8] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the five - major - steel - product output decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons, the ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8 tons, and the ferromanganese demand increased by 0.0 to 11.3 tons [8] Inventory Changes - Ferrosilicon: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons to 6.4 tons, and the average available days decreased by 0.4 to 15.4 days. Ferromanganese: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons to 38.6 tons, and the average available days increased by 0.1 to 16 days [8]