1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Shanxi Coking's stock price is influenced by multiple factors including performance downturn, weak industry fundamentals, and market sentiment [1] Company Performance - The company forecasts a full-year net profit attributable to shareholders between 74 million to 89 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 66.31% to 71.82% [2] - The non-recurring net profit is expected to drop by 79.36% to 85.43% year-on-year, with weak main business profitability and decreased investment income from joint ventures impacting overall profits [2] - Cumulative losses of approximately 50.05 million yuan were reported for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating insufficient profitability stability despite a single-quarter turnaround in Q3 [2] Industry Conditions - The coking coal industry faces dual pressures from capacity release and weak demand, with the steel industry experiencing reduced crude steel output affecting terminal demand [3] - Coking coal prices showed a trend of "weak first, strong later, then decline" throughout the year, with the average price in Q3 2025 at 1,322.17 yuan per ton, down 23.64% year-on-year [3] - The procurement cost of coking coal increased by 4.68% quarter-on-quarter, leading to a sustained negative gross margin in the coking business [3] Financial Condition - The company's net cash flow from operating activities has been negative for three consecutive years, worsening to -1.403 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting cash flow pressure [4] - As of Q1 2025, the company's current ratio was only 0.26, indicating weak short-term debt repayment capability [4] Stock Performance - Despite a temporary stock price surge due to coal industry merger and reorganization policies in early February 2026, the stock quickly corrected as investors took profits [5] - Market confidence in long-term industry improvement remains low, and the company has not implemented any share buybacks or increases since 2011, contrasting with recent state-owned enterprise policies encouraging market value management [5] Company Valuation - As of February 12, 2026, the company's price-to-book ratio was 0.78, below the industry average, while the price-to-earnings ratio was -299.35, reflecting distorted valuation due to losses [6] - The stock price has shown a volatility range of 11.73%, indicating intense capital speculation but lacking sustained upward momentum [6] - The decline in Shanxi Coking's stock price is attributed to weak fundamentals, industry cycle downturn, and low market sentiment, necessitating attention to future coking coal price trends, cost control effectiveness, and responsiveness to state-owned enterprise policies [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Coke Daily Report - Report Date: February 12, 2026 - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Categories Coke Prices - **Shanxi Standard First - Wet Quenched Coke**: The latest price is 1485.59, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 54.61, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.09% [2] - **Hebei Standard First - Dry Quenched Coke**: The latest price is 1735.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year increase of 18.84% [2] - **Shandong Standard First - Dry Quenched Coke**: The latest price is 1680.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and no year - on - year change [2] - **Jiangsu Standard First - Dry Quenched Coke**: The latest price is 1700.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.16% [2] - **Inner Mongolia Second - Grade Coke**: The latest price is 1180.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 50.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.67% [2] Production and Capacity Utilization - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate**: The latest rate is 85.69, with a weekly increase of 0.22, a monthly decrease of 0.35, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.08% [2] - **Daily Average Hot Metal Output**: The latest output is 228.58, with a weekly increase of 0.60, a monthly decrease of 0.92, and a year - on - year increase of 0.06% [2] - **Coking Capacity Utilization**: The latest utilization rate is 70.75, with a weekly decrease of 0.66, a monthly increase of 0.01, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.96% [2] - **Daily Average Coke Output**: The latest output is 49.34, with a weekly decrease of 0.99, a monthly decrease of 0.41, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.35% [2] Inventory - **Coking Plant Inventory**: The latest inventory is 44.64, with a weekly increase of 0.65, a monthly increase of 0.47, and a year - on - year decrease of 54.64% [2] - **Port Inventory**: The latest inventory is 201.10, with a weekly increase of 3.04, a monthly increase of 17.00, and a year - on - year increase of 13.49% [2] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The latest inventory is 692.38, with a weekly increase of 14.19, a monthly increase of 46.65, and a year - on - year increase of 0.21% [2] - **Steel Mill Inventory Days**: The latest number of days is 12.76, with a weekly increase of 0.22, a monthly increase of 0.74, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.84% [2] Futures Market - **Disk 05**: The latest price is 1669, with a daily decrease of 12.50, a weekly decrease of 75.50, a monthly decrease of 92.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.48% [2] - **Disk 09**: The latest price is 1742, with a daily decrease of 15.00, a weekly decrease of 67.50, a monthly decrease of 95.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53% [2] - **Disk 01**: The latest price is 1835, with a daily decrease of 6.50, a weekly decrease of 53.00, a monthly increase of 335.00, and a year - on - year increase of 0.33% [2] - **05 Basis**: The latest basis is 132.71, with a daily increase of 12.50, a weekly increase of 75.50, a monthly increase of 166.85, and a year - on - year increase of 87.68 [2] - **09 Basis**: The latest basis is 59.71, with a daily increase of 15.00, a weekly increase of 67.50, a monthly increase of 170.35, and a year - on - year increase of 89.68 [2] - **01 Basis**: The latest basis is - 33.29, with a daily increase of 6.50, a weekly increase of 53.00, a monthly decrease of 260.15, and a year - on - year increase of 56.68 [2] - **5 - 9 Spread**: The latest spread is 166.00, with a daily increase of 6.00, a weekly increase of 22.50, a monthly increase of 427.00, and a year - on - year increase of 31.00 [2] - **9 - 1 Spread**: The latest spread is - 73.00, with a daily increase of 2.50, a weekly decrease of 8.00, a monthly increase of 3.50, and a year - on - year increase of 2.00 [2] - **1 - 5 Spread**: The latest spread is - 93.00, with a daily decrease of 8.50, a weekly decrease of 14.50, a monthly decrease of 430.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 33.00 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating to the precious metals and new energy sectors, and "Neutral" or "Wait-and-See" ratings to most other sectors [1] Core Viewpoints - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds remain abundant, and the stock index is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term volatility [1] - The bond market is favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1] - Metal prices, including copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to stabilize and rebound after the release of macro risks, although they are subject to various supply and demand factors and policy uncertainties [1] - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy. For example, palm oil is expected to be volatile and bullish, while cotton is in a situation of "support but no driver" [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by factors like crude oil prices, supply and demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. For instance, PTA and ethylene glycol prices have shown different trends due to various factors [1] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock index: Expected to consolidate after a volume-reduced rebound, with a long-term upward trend intact due to abundant funds and economic recovery [1] - Bond futures: Favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but short-term interest rate risks are highlighted [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: After a significant correction, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as macro risks are released, with industry fundamentals providing support [1] - Aluminum: Prices dropped due to rising macro risk aversion but are expected to recover as the supply narrative continues and risks are released [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure but are expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk aversion [1] - Nickel: Short-term prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but long-term high global inventories may still exert pressure. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1] - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the raw material end and repeated macro sentiment. Short-term trading is recommended [1] - Tin: Prices rebounded strongly after a mine accident and significant deleveraging, but high short-term volatility requires risk management [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Market sentiment is recovering, but strong US PMI data may slow the short-term upward momentum [1] - Platinum and palladium: Short-term support exists due to Trump's plan to establish a key mineral reserve and the EU's consideration of sanctions on Russian platinum exports [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon declined in December [1] - Polysilicon: In the off-season for new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong. Prices have risen significantly and may need to correct [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the continuation of price increases lacks momentum [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Unilateral long positions are advised to exit, and cash-and-carry arbitrage positions can be considered due to factors such as high production and inventory [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: In the off-season, the focus is on capital sentiment, and opportunities to sell at high prices or establish cash-and-carry arbitrage positions are recommended [1] - Glass and soda ash: Weak current supply and demand are intertwined with strong expectations, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Expected to be volatile and bullish as the main consuming countries start purchasing and production areas may reduce production and inventory [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to factors such as policy, planting area, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a consensus on short positions due to global oversupply and increased domestic production, but the cost provides support at lower prices [1] - Grains: Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to correct as pre-holiday stocking ends and funds take profits [1] - Soybeans: Unilateral expectations are for a weakening trend due to factors such as expected rainfall in Argentina and sufficient Brazilian supply [1] - Pulp: It is advisable to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand after restocking [1] - Logs: The spot price is rising, and the futures price is expected to increase due to a decrease in arrivals and an increase in foreign quotes [1] - Hogs: The spot price is stabilizing, and demand is supported, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may ease. Prices are expected to correct in the short term [1] - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Profits are high, and the demand for catch-up construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan may be falsified [1] - Shanghai rubber: The raw material cost provides support, but downstream demand weakens before the festival, and the futures-spot price difference has widened [1] - BR rubber: The cost of butadiene provides support, and there is an expectation of increased exports in the long term. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with an upward trend in the long term [1] - PTA: The PX market is strong, driving up the prices of chemical products. Domestic PTA production is increasing, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. Speculative demand has increased [1] - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply and demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure [1] - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease, but downstream negative feedback is significant, resulting in a mixed situation [1] - PE: The price has returned to a reasonable range, and demand is weak during the holiday after pre-holiday stocking [1] - PP: Supply pressure is high, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - LPG: The CP price is rising, and the demand side is short-term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Freight rates have peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines are expected to raise prices after the off-season in March [1]

Core Insights - The coke sector experienced a significant increase of 8.84% on February 4, with Shaanxi Black Cat leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] Sector Performance - Shaanxi Black Cat (601015) closed at 4.62, up 10.00% with a trading volume of 757,300 shares [1] - Meijin Energy (000723) also rose by 10.00% to 5.17, with a trading volume of 2,176,100 shares [1] - Baotailong (601011) increased by 9.97% to 3.64, with a trading volume of 1,526,000 shares [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal (600740) rose by 9.95% to 4.86, with a trading volume of 2,223,600 shares [1] - Yunnan Coal Energy (600792) increased by 9.95% to 4.64, with a trading volume of 764,400 shares [1] - Antai Group (600408) saw a rise of 6.13% to 3.98, with a trading volume of 1,178,200 shares [1] - Yunwei Co. (600725) had a slight increase of 0.42% to 4.73, with a trading volume of 311,600 shares [1] Capital Flow - The coke sector saw a net inflow of 943 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 581 million yuan [1] - The main funds' net inflow for Meijin Energy was 419 million yuan, accounting for 38.32% of its trading volume [2] - Baotailong had a net inflow of 150 million yuan, representing 27.93% of its trading volume [2] - Shaanxi Black Cat recorded a net inflow of 117 million yuan, making up 34.40% of its trading volume [2] - Shanxi Coking Coal had a net inflow of 108 million yuan, which is 10.23% of its trading volume [2] - Yunnan Coal Energy saw a net inflow of 107 million yuan, accounting for 30.99% of its trading volume [2] - Antai Group had a net inflow of 51 million yuan, representing 11.00% of its trading volume [2] - Yunwei Co. experienced a net outflow of 949,970 yuan, which is -6.46% of its trading volume [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upward potential depends on coking coal supply - side policies and market sentiment. It is recommended to hold the long position of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and look for short - term long opportunities for hot - rolled coil at the 3250 level [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Before the Spring Festival, iron ore demand is weak. High inventory and high - level supply during the off - season continue to put pressure on prices. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - selling can be attempted, but be vigilant about macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the price increase has been implemented, which drives the market to rebound. However, the lag in the implementation time of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises dampens the expectation of future price increases. After the Spring Festival, there is still an expectation of supply loosening. It is recommended to view it as a unilateral volatility with a reference range of 1600 - 1800, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. - For coking coal, the market has a re - evaluation of its value, but the domestic supply - demand is generally balanced. It is also recommended to view it as a unilateral volatility with a reference range of 1050 - 1250, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, the fundamentals are relatively healthy, and there is cost support. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the range of 5500 - 5800, taking into account macro - sentiment fluctuations. - For ferromanganese, it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. After the Spring Festival, there is still an expectation of production resumption, and the fundamentals lack strength. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the range of 5600 - 6000, paying attention to macro - sentiment fluctuations [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices: Rebar spot prices in different regions (East China, North China, South China) and futures contract prices (05, 10, 01) have different changes. Hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices also show various trends. For example, rebar spot in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 25 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2920 yuan/ton with no change. Plate billet price is 3730 yuan/ton with no change. Profits of different steel products in different regions vary, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 7 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output is 228.0 tons with a decrease of 0.1 tons (- 0.1%). The output of five major steel products is 823.2 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons (0.4%). The inventory of five major steel products is 1278.5 tons, an increase of 21.4 tons (1.7%). Rebar inventory continued to accumulate, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased [1]. Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 tons (- 11.6%). The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 7.8 tons (- 1.0%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders (e.g., lower powder, PB powder) decreased, with a decline of about 0.6% - 0.7%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 (2.9%), and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.5 (- 12.0%) [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 45.3 tons (- 1.8%), and the global shipping volume increased by 116.3 tons (3.9%). The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons (8.2%) [3]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.1%), and the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 21.6 tons (6.9%) [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 255.7 tons (1.5%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 579.8 tons (6.2%) [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices fluctuated. Coke 05 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton (2.1%), and coking coal 05 contract increased by 26 yuan/ton (2.3%). The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed [6]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons (- 0.7%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons (0.2%). Coking coal production: The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons (- 0.34%), and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons (- 0.14%) [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.1%) [6]. Inventory - Coke total inventory increased by 21.5 tons (2.3%), and coking coal inventory in different sectors (e.g., coking plants, steel mills, ports) also had different changes [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices changed slightly. Ferrosilicon主力合约 decreased by 4.0 yuan/ton (- 0.1%), and ferromanganese主力合约 increased by 2.0 yuan/ton (0.04%). The spreads between different regions and contracts also changed [7]. Cost and Profit - Ferrosilicon production costs in different regions (e.g., Inner Mongolia, Qinghai) increased slightly, and production profits changed. Ferromanganese production costs in some regions remained stable [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon weekly output was 9.8 tons, with a slight increase of 0.0 tons (0.1%). Ferromanganese weekly output decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.4%) [7]. Demand - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese demand remained relatively stable. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.1%) [7]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (1.0%), and ferromanganese inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (0.3%) [7].

Group 1 - The coke sector experienced a 1.14% increase on February 3, with Yunwei Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] - Key stocks in the coke sector showed varying performance, with Yunwei Co., Ltd. closing at 4.71, up 3.06%, and Shanxi Coking Coal at 4.42, unchanged [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the coke sector was 75.75 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 125 million yuan [1] - Detailed fund flow data indicated that Yunwei Co., Ltd. had a main fund net inflow of 25.40 million yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 19.83 million yuan [2] - Other companies like Antai Group and Shaanxi Black Cat also experienced mixed fund flows, with significant retail inflows for some stocks despite overall net outflows [2]

Market Overview - The report highlights significant fluctuations in global assets following the hawkish nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, leading to a strong market reaction [2][8] - The short-term market may be overpricing the Fed's hawkish shift, with expectations of interest rate cuts likely preceding any balance sheet reduction [8] Economic Policy Insights - The report suggests that the Fed's ability to successfully reduce its balance sheet will depend on structural changes in fiscal policy and the real economy, rather than solely on the Fed's intentions [8] - It emphasizes that the core issue remains how inflation will be managed, potentially through fiscal discipline or production reforms [8] Stock Market Implications - The report anticipates increased volatility in the U.S. stock market, with a shift towards a more balanced investment style [8] - Key variables affecting the stock market include earnings validation and inflation trends, with a focus on the performance of the S&P 500 [8] Commodity Market Analysis - The report maintains that the bullish logic for gold, silver, and commodities remains intact, despite short-term volatility [8] - It notes that the speculative sell-off in precious metals was triggered by geopolitical signals and the Warsh nomination, impacting industrial metals as well [8] Sector Performance - The report identifies sectors such as electric grid equipment and liquor as outperformers in the recent market, while precious metals and industrial metals have seen significant declines [1][8] - It highlights the resilience of supply-demand dynamics in non-ferrous metals, despite recent liquidity shocks [8]

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal sector experienced a significant decline, with a 7.64% drop on February 2, led by Shaanxi Black Cat, amidst a broader market downturn reflected in the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On February 2, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] - The coking coal sector saw individual stock performances with notable declines, including Shaanxi Black Cat down 10.04% and Meijin Energy down 7.91% [1] Group 2: Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The coking coal sector experienced a net outflow of 343 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 366 million yuan [1] - The trading volume for key stocks included 1.86 billion yuan for Yunwei Co. and 6.77 billion yuan for Shanxi Coking [1] Group 3: Individual Stock Analysis - Major declines in individual stocks included: - Shaanxi Black Cat: 4.12 yuan, down 10.04%, with a trading volume of 1.33 million shares [1] - Meijin Energy: 4.66 yuan, down 7.91%, with a trading volume of 2.06 million shares [1] - The table of individual stock performances indicates significant losses across the board, with the highest decline being 10.04% for Shaanxi Black Cat [1][2]