Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that due to weak demand and rapid capacity expansion, the supply of consumer goods will exceed demand, leading to a continuous decline in prices from 2021 to 2025, negatively impacting prices, profits, and valuations. It is expected that some consumer goods prices may have bottomed out by 2025, with a potential upward trend starting in 2026 if demand improves. The report recommends focusing on the catering supply chain and the dairy industry chain [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The period from 2017 to 2022 saw rapid capital expenditure growth in consumer goods, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14%. The years 2020 to 2025 are expected to be peak years for capacity expansion, resulting in significant supply increases. Demand has been weak since 2021, with restaurant demand growth slowing from double digits before 2020 to low single digits in recent years [2]. - The frozen food sector has seen slight volume growth but significant price declines. Despite a weak restaurant market, there is still potential for penetration growth in the frozen segment due to standardization and cost reduction. Major companies are experiencing a decline in net profit margins [2]. - In the seasoning sector, basic seasoning volumes have decreased slightly, while prices have also dropped. The demand for basic seasonings is under pressure due to weak restaurant performance, but the competitive landscape remains stable. The revenue of leading companies has also declined [3]. Price Trends and Future Outlook - By 2025, some consumer goods prices may have reached a temporary bottom, driven by supply-side improvements and terminal price dysfunction. An upward price cycle is anticipated to begin in 2026, with stronger price elasticity and sustainability if demand improves. The catering supply chain and dairy industry chain are highlighted for potential growth [4]. - In the catering supply chain, the "price" logic is beginning to play out, which may lead to simultaneous improvements in price, profit, and valuation. The frozen food industry is expected to see a bottoming out of supply, while the seasoning sector is projected to stabilize in terms of price and profit by 2025 [4]. - The dairy industry chain is characterized by the beef cycle and raw milk cycle, with a strong certainty of growth. It is expected that beef prices will continue to rise in 2026, improving profit margins, while raw milk prices may start to reflect upward trends in the second half of 2026 [5]. Investment Recommendations - For the catering supply chain, the report recommends focusing on frozen food companies like Anjijia, seasoning companies like Yihai International, and companies undergoing turnaround like Qianhe Flavor and Zhongju Gaoxin. Attention is also drawn to Baoli Food [6]. - In the dairy industry chain, the report suggests monitoring Youran Agriculture and recommends companies like Modern Farming, New Dairy, Yili, and Mengniu [6].