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从“无风险利率”到“无信任时刻”:储备货币的魔法如何失效?
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-11 04:41
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy, highlighting its role in shaping wealth, borrowing costs, and economic stability in the US [1][2][3] - The concept of "American exceptionalism" is discussed as a double-edged sword, granting the US significant power while also leading to potential overreach and mismanagement of its economic privileges [6][13] - Historical examples of reserve currencies, such as the Dutch Guilder, illustrate the risks associated with over-leveraging and the eventual decline of once-dominant currencies [15][28] Group 2 - The article identifies five current trends indicating a shift in the global economic landscape, including excessive national debt, rising wealth inequality, and a move towards protectionist policies [38][42][45] - It notes that the international order is transitioning from cooperative multilateralism to confrontational unilateralism, with an increased use of financial and military power [50] - The potential for significant changes in the next 5-10 years is highlighted, suggesting that understanding these fundamental shifts is crucial for risk management and investment strategies [51][52]