1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "10-year Treasury yield - CSI 300 dividend yield" is used as the core indicator to observe the cost - performance ratio between stocks and bonds. The current difference is near the +1 standard deviation of the one - year rolling window and at the upper limit of the past three years, indicating that the bond's allocation value is gradually increasing, but it is not yet the time for re - allocation between stocks and bonds, and the bond market still has upward pressure [3][4][5]. - The asymmetric compression of the indicator's range since 2021 is unsustainable, and the range may return to the historical normal state of [-2 standard deviations, +2 standard deviations] due to factors such as the upward revision of fundamental expectations and the increase in investors' risk appetite [4][63][64]. - In the short term, the bond market is under phased pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of M1 year - on - year data, the increase in market risk appetite, and the expectation of "anti - involution" policies. Attention should be paid to the redemption situation of bond - type funds to avoid potential negative feedback effects [7][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Review: Treasury Yields Fluctuated Upward - From August 11th to 15th, Treasury yields fluctuated upward, with the stock - bond seesaw effect dominating the bond market. The 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury yields rose by 1.59bp and 5.74bp respectively, closing at 1.3665% and 1.7465% [2][12]. - On August 11th - 12th, the bond market sentiment was under pressure due to the continuous strengthening of the equity market. On August 13th, after the release of the July financial data, the 10 - year Treasury yield slightly declined under the game of multiple and short factors. On August 14th, the bond market yield fluctuated due to the rise and fall of the equity market and the central bank's reverse - repurchase operation. On August 15th, the Treasury yield reversed and rose due to the strong rebound of the equity market [12][13]. 3.2 Bond Market Data Tracking 3.2.1 Funding Situation: Funding Rates First Declined and Then Rose - From August 11th to 15th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 4,149.00 million yuan. The R001 and DR001 rose, while the R007 and DR007 declined. The SHIBOR rate also showed an upward trend [25][26][37]. - The difference between R007 and DR007 narrowed, indicating a narrowing of the funding cost difference between non - bank institutions and banks. The term spread of FR007S5Y - FR007S1Y widened [26]. 3.2.2 Supply Side: Total Issuance and Net Financing Decreased - From August 11th to 15th, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds decreased, and the net financing amount also decreased. The issuance of government bonds decreased, and the net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds decreased [41][44][51]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased, and the net financing amount decreased. The issuance scale of state - owned commercial banks was the highest among different bank types, and the 1 - year term had the highest issuance scale among different term types [51]. 3.3 Next Week's Outlook and Strategy 3.3.1 Current Position of Stock - Bond Cost - Performance Ratio - The "10 - year Treasury yield - CSI 300 dividend yield" is used to measure the stock - bond cost - performance ratio. Since 2021, the fluctuation range has been asymmetrically compressed, but it is expected to return to the historical normal state [3][61][63]. - As of August 15, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yield was about 1.74%, the CSI 300 dividend yield was 2.76%, and the stock - bond yield difference was - 1.02% [4][63]. 3.3.2 Next Week's Outlook: The Central Funding Rate May Rise Due to Tax - Period Disturbance - Next week, the supply pressure of Treasury bonds will increase. The planned issuance of Treasury bonds is 36.2 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds is 36.915 billion yuan [67]. - Due to the tax - period disturbance and the expiration of reverse - repurchases, the central funding rate may rise [68]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Strategy: The Bond Market is Under Phased Pressure, and Potential Negative Feedback Effects Should be Watched Out - The bond market is under phased pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of M1 year - on - year data, the increase in market risk appetite, and the expectation of "anti - involution" policies [7][69]. - The strengthening of the equity market is the biggest risk for the bond market. Attention should be paid to the redemption situation of bond - type funds to avoid potential bond - market stampede risks [7][69]. 3.4 Global Major Assets - US Treasury yields generally rose, and the curve steepened. The 10Y - 2Y term spread widened by 7bp to 58bp [72]. - The US dollar index declined, and the US dollar against the RMB central parity rate slightly decreased. The prices of gold, silver, and crude oil all fell [72][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, most credit spreads of different industries and ratings narrowed to varying degrees this week, while a few industries' credit spreads widened. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds fluctuated slightly, the 3Y industrial bond credit spreads adjusted significantly, and the AA medium - long - end spreads decreased. The 3Y bank secondary perpetual bond credit spreads widened significantly, and the spreads of other maturities widened slightly [3][39]. - The report continues to expect the 10Y Treasury yield to be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year. After the recent pull - back, the 10Y Treasury is close to 1.75%, with prominent cost - effectiveness. The report is bullish on the 10Y Treasury yield returning to around 1.65%, and the 5Y national and joint - stock secondary capital bonds falling below 1.9%. The growth of wealth management scale is beneficial to credit bonds. It is bullish on long - duration and credit - sinking urban investment and capital bonds, urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds, strongly recommends perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks, and suggests paying attention to capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [3][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) this week was 16.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 298 billion yuan compared with last week. The total issuance was 323.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 175 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 306.6 billion yuan, an increase of 122.9 billion yuan [7]. - The net financing of asset - backed securities this week was 27.8 billion yuan, an increase of 17 billion yuan compared with last week [7]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 35.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 40.2 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 17.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 131.4 billion yuan; the net financing of financial bonds was - 36.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 126.4 billion yuan [7]. - In terms of issuance and redemption quantity, the issuance of urban investment bonds decreased by 21, and the redemption increased by 32; the issuance of industrial bonds decreased by 50, and the redemption increased by 39; the issuance of financial bonds decreased by 10, and the redemption increased by 14 [9]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - The weighted average issuance rate of AA industrial bonds increased significantly this week, while the issuance costs of other bond types were below 2.5%. The issuance rate of AA industrial bonds increased by 61BP compared with last week, mainly due to the "25 Xiangqiao Bond" [17]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Transaction Volume and Turnover - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 15.8 billion yuan compared with last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 217 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.8 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 341 billion yuan, an increase of 9.4 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 384.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.4 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 18.3 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3 billion yuan [18]. - The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated slightly compared with last week. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.39%, a decrease of 0.07pct; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 1.88%, an increase of 0.04pct; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 2.59%, a decrease of 0.09pct; the turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.5%, an increase of 0.24pct [18]. 3.2.2 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different maturities increased to varying degrees this week, and the adjustment range of medium - long - term bonds was greater than that of short - term bonds. For example, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds within 1Y increased by 2BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively; those of 3 - 5Y increased by 5BP; and those of over 10Y increased by 3 - 5BP [20][21]. - Taking AA + 5Y bonds of each type as an example, the yields of different types of bonds increased to varying degrees. For industrial bonds, the yields of privately - issued and perpetual industrial bonds increased by 6BP and 7BP respectively; for urban investment bonds, the yield of AA + 5Y urban investment bonds increased by 4BP; for financial bonds, the yields of commercial bank ordinary bonds and secondary capital bonds increased by 7BP and 8BP respectively; for asset - backed securities, the yield of AA + 5Y asset - backed securities increased by 6BP [22]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - Overall, most credit spreads of different industries and ratings narrowed to varying degrees this week, while a few industries' credit spreads widened. For example, the credit spread of AA non - bank finance widened by 6BP, and that of AA building materials narrowed by 6BP; the credit spreads of AA + electrical equipment and textile and apparel widened by 6BP and 17BP respectively, and that of AA + non - bank finance narrowed by 7BP. The fluctuations of other industries' and ratings' bond credit spreads did not exceed 5BP [2][24]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities fluctuated slightly. The 0.5 - 1Y credit spread compressed by less than 1BP, the 1 - 3Y spread widened by 1BP, the 3 - 5Y spread compressed by 1BP, the 5 - 10Y spread compressed by 1BP, and the over 10Y spread compressed by 2BP. Regionally, the fluctuations of urban investment credit spreads were within 5BP. For example, the AA credit spread in Shaanxi compressed by 5BP, and the AA + credit spread in Hebei compressed by 5BP [29][30]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The 3Y industrial bond credit spreads adjusted significantly this week, and the AA medium - long - end spreads decreased. The credit spreads of 3Y AAA -, AA +, and AA private and perpetual industrial bonds widened to varying degrees, while the 5Y and 10Y AA private and perpetual industrial bond credit spreads compressed [33]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The 3Y bank secondary perpetual bond credit spreads widened significantly this week, and the spreads of other maturities widened slightly [35]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - 26 bond implicit ratings were downgraded this week, including 10 by Joy City Holdings Group Co., Ltd., 10 by Shanghai Waigaoqiao Group Co., Ltd., 4 by Chongqing Yerui Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., and 2 by Zhengxinglong Real Estate (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. The "20 Huaxia EB" issued by China Fortune Land Development Holdings Co., Ltd. was extended [36]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The report continues to expect the 10Y Treasury yield to be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year. After the recent pull - back, the 10Y Treasury is close to 1.75%, with prominent cost - effectiveness. It is bullish on the 10Y Treasury yield returning to around 1.65%, and the 5Y national and joint - stock secondary capital bonds falling below 1.9%. The growth of wealth management scale is beneficial to credit bonds [3][40]. - It is bullish on long - duration and credit - sinking urban investment and capital bonds, urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds, strongly recommends perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks, and suggests paying attention to capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [40].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025 [1][4] - The policy aims to lower the "risk-free rate" and "low-risk rate," encouraging funds to flow from bank wealth management and bond markets into the stock market, real estate, or to expand production [3][4] - The introduction of value-added tax on interest income is expected to reduce the profit margins from bond investments, which is seen as beneficial for the stock market, real estate, and the real economy [4][10] Group 2 - The average annualized yield of bank wealth management products was 2.12% as of June 30, 2025, significantly higher than the 1.3% interest rate for five-year fixed deposits, making it attractive for investors [7] - The total scale of the national bank wealth management market reached 30.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.53% [7] - The increase in bank deposits, which reached 162.9 trillion yuan, indicates that without a portion of these funds being released, economic recovery may be challenging [8] Group 3 - Recent U.S. employment data showed a significant drop in non-farm payrolls, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, far below market expectations [12][14] - The disappointing employment figures have raised concerns about a potential recession in the U.S. economy, which may lead to an increased likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [16][23] - The resignation of a Federal Reserve board member may provide an opportunity for potential restructuring within the Fed, with market speculation about future leadership changes [18][21]

Group 1 - The first data point indicates a high level of market speculation, with net financing purchases reaching 19.2 billion, the second highest this year, only behind February 5 [2][3] - The financing balance has increased to 1.95 trillion, surpassing the previous high of 1.94 trillion in March, marking the second highest level in history, only below the bull market period of 2015 [2][3] - The current financing balance is described as the second most active in history, suggesting a significant level of market engagement [3] Group 2 - The second data point reflects the true economic temperature, with state-owned enterprises reporting a 0.2% decline in total revenue and a 3.1% decline in total profit for the first half of the year [10][11] - A survey by the central bank indicates a decline in income confidence and employment perception, with nearly 40% of respondents feeling the job market is "average" and over 53% perceiving it as "severe" or "uncertain" [10][11] Group 3 - The third data point explains the rationale behind the stock market's performance, highlighting that the current low interest rate environment in China is driving a structural market rally, leading to a revaluation of equity assets [12][13] - The average annualized return of financial products in the first half of the year is reported at 2.12%, down from 2.65% the previous year, indicating a decline in the overall risk-free interest rate [14][15] - Companies maintaining double-digit profit growth in a low-risk interest rate environment are seen as attractive investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals [15][16] Group 4 - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has seen significant gains, with stocks rising nearly 100% this year, driven by recent agreements and market interest [19][21] - Reports indicate that leading innovative pharmaceutical companies have a price-to-sales ratio in line with historical averages, suggesting continued growth potential despite recent price increases [22][23] - Fund managers specializing in pharmaceuticals are optimistic about the sector's future, emphasizing the importance of stock selection in the current market environment [24]

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Group 1 - The overall investment returns in the past two years have exceeded expectations, primarily driven by luck [1] - The initial investment goal was set at a modest 10%, focusing on deep value stocks and long-term ROE [1] - The investment strategy has shifted towards companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, particularly those offering over 6% [2] Group 2 - The current market sentiment suggests that many believe banks are overvalued, but this perspective may not hold when considering long-term performance and dividend yields [2] - The importance of not using leverage in investments is emphasized, regardless of market conditions [2] - The psychological aspect of handling gains and losses is a significant concern, highlighting the difficulty of managing emotions in investing [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main tone of "moderate easing" of monetary policy remains unchanged. Although the central bank removed the wording of "choosing the right time to cut reserve requirements and interest rates" in the second - quarter regular meeting, the policy stance is still supportive [6]. - Treasury futures are expected to remain volatile. The removal of the mention of reserve requirement and interest rate cuts in the central bank's policy meeting led to a correction in the bond market, but considering the macro - fundamentals and policy signals, there is an upper limit set by the fundamentals and a lower limit set by policy intervention for the risk - free interest rate [7]. - For coking coal and coke, the recent price increase is due to the fermentation of the "supply gap" sentiment. However, once the price rises, the resumption of production will become the main contradiction, and imported coal will also ease the shortage of domestic coal. It is recommended to short on rebounds with light positions [9]. - For US soybeans, the planted area is lower than expected, but the quarterly inventory is higher than expected. The inventory being higher than expected is slightly bearish for near - month contracts, while the lower - than - expected area is bullish for far - month contracts. The weather in the production areas will be the focus from July to August [10]. Summary by Directory General Information - The report is from国泰君安期货, dated July 1, 2025 [2][8] Treasury Futures - The central bank's 2025 second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed the mention of "choosing the right time to cut reserve requirements and interest rates", reducing the market's expectation of further cuts in the third quarter and causing fluctuations in the bond market on Monday. In the medium term, inflation may bottom out in the second half of the year, but the upward amplitude and rate are limited, so the view of treasury futures remaining volatile is maintained [7] Coking Coal and Coke - The recent synchronous increase in spot and futures prices is due to the fermentation of the "supply gap" sentiment. The high level of hot metal production and the replenishment demand for scarce resources by downstream enterprises, as well as the improvement in the trading of some coal types with the recovery of thermal coal prices, have contributed to the price increase. However, the market's expectation of long - term production capacity has not changed. Once the price rises, the resumption of production will become the main contradiction, and the reduction of the third - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal will ease the shortage of domestic coal. It is necessary to be vigilant about the impact of sentiment before seeing the stabilization and recovery of production data, and the strategy of shorting on rebounds with light positions is maintained [9] US Soybeans - The planted area data shows that corn is 95.2 million acres (market average expectation: 95.35 million, previous year: 90.59 million), soybeans are 83.38 million acres (market average expectation: 83.65 million, previous year: 87.05 million), and wheat is 45.48 million acres (market average expectation: 45.43 million, previous year: 46.07 million). As of June 1, the national soybean inventory was 1.008 billion bushels (market average expectation: 0.98 billion, previous year: 0.97 billion). The higher - than - expected inventory is slightly bearish for near - month US soybean contracts, while the slightly lower - than - expected area is bullish for far - month contracts. The weather in the production areas will be the focus from July to August [10] Various Commodities - Gold: Geopolitical cease - fire; trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [17][21] - Silver: Continuing to rise; trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [17][21] - Copper: Positive sentiment, firm price; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [23] - Zinc: Fundamentals are relatively bearish; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [26] - Lead: Strong in the medium term; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [29] - Tin: Tight current situation but weak expectations; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [32] - Nickel: The support from the ore end has weakened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [36] - Stainless steel: Inventory has slightly decreased marginally, and the steel price has recovered but with limited elasticity; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [36] - Lithium carbonate: The contradiction of warehouse receipts has been alleviated, and it is running weakly; trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [40] - Industrial silicon: Upstream factories have started to resume production, and the futures price may correct; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [43] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the actual spot trading situation; trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [43] - Iron ore: Expectations are fluctuating, and it is in a wide - range shock; trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [46] - Rebar: In a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [48] - Hot - rolled coil: In a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [49] - Ferrosilicon: In a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [53] - Silicomanganese: In a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [53] - Coke: In a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [56] - Coking coal: Affected by news, in a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [57] - Thermal coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and it is stabilizing with shocks; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [61] - Logs: The main contract is switching, and it is in a wide - range shock; trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [65] - Rubber: Running in a shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [68] - Synthetic rubber: Running in a short - term shock [14] - Asphalt: Running in a narrow - range shock [14] - LLDPE: Mainly in a short - term shock [14] - PP: Spot price is in a shock, and trading is light [14] - Caustic soda: There is still pressure in the later stage [14] - Pulp: Running in a shock [14] - Glass: The price of original sheets is stable [14] - Methanol: Running in a short - term shock [14] - Urea: Under shock pressure [14] - Styrene: In a short - term shock [14] - Soda ash: The spot market has little change [14] - LPG: Running in a short - term shock [14] - PVC: The trend is weak [14] - Fuel oil: The weakness persists, and short - term fluctuations are decreasing [14] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Mainly in an oscillating adjustment trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [14] - Container shipping index (European line): Temporarily on the sidelines, pay attention to the price - holding situation in late July [14] - Short - fiber: In a short - term shock [16] - Bottle chips: In a short - term shock, go long PR and short PF [16] - Offset printing paper: Running in a shock [16] - Palm oil: The improvement of the near - end fundamentals in the producing areas is limited [16] - Soybean oil: The old - crop inventory of US soybeans is high, and the new - crop area is slightly reduced [16] - Soybean meal: After the report is released, US soybeans rise slightly, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound and oscillate [16] - Soybean: May rebound and oscillate [16] - Corn: Running in a shock [16] - Sugar: Strong in the domestic market and weak in the overseas market [16] - Cotton: Lacks effective driving force, and the futures price rises and then falls [16] - Peanut: There is support at the bottom [16]

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical benchmark view on A-shares, citing the elimination of policy uncertainty and a decline in risk-free interest rates as factors that enhance market performance [4][11][13] - The tactical benchmark view on government bonds is upheld, with the report noting an imbalance between financing demand and credit supply, which limits the downward movement of interest rates [4][11][13] - The tactical allocation view on gold is downgraded to benchmark, as geopolitical tensions have eased and market risk appetite has rebounded, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][11][13] - A tactical underweight view on the US dollar is maintained, with concerns over fluctuating policies and persistent fiscal deficit issues impacting the dollar's credibility [4][14] Group 2 - The report highlights that the recent market sentiment is stable, with expectations for economic recovery and a favorable environment for equity assets due to declining risk-free rates and high trading volumes [11][12] - The report indicates that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and improved China-US relations have boosted global risk appetite, suggesting structural opportunities within equity markets [11][12] - The report emphasizes that the current macroeconomic environment limits the potential for significant downward adjustments in bond yields, as the market has already priced in the prevailing interest rate levels [11][12]

Market Overview - The overall trend of AH stocks in the past six months can be summarized as "gathering market sentiment amid divergence, with gradual valuation recovery amid fluctuations" [1] - Since the pandemic, the stock market has been in a long-term adjustment due to risk control and the downturn in the real estate cycle [1] - After September 24, there has been a noticeable change in market style, with effective policies boosting confidence and altering the characteristics of a shrinking market [1] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese stock market has a high allocation value globally, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 dividend yield remaining above 1.5%, indicating strong appeal for large incremental funds like insurance [1][2] - The continuous decline in bank deposit interest rates is expected to drive savings into the stock market as fixed deposits mature [1] - The return of overseas funds to the Chinese market is evident, with Hong Kong stocks showing significant recovery since the beginning of the year [2] Economic Context - The controllable economic downturn risk suggests that the current dividend yield is unlikely to experience a significant decline [2] - The major reasons for the significant pullback in A-shares since 2021 include economic downturn and deflation expectations, which are less pronounced compared to developed markets [2] - The stabilization of economic expectations is seen as a major positive factor for the stock market [4] Sector Analysis - Assets with strong earnings certainty and high dividend nature are expected to yield absolute returns, attracting low-risk preference funds [3] - Industries that are likely to see opportunities before the economic bottom is confirmed include innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, AI-related sectors, non-bank financials, and more [3] - Many downstream industries are gradually emerging from profit troughs due to price adjustments and technological breakthroughs, despite the year-on-year PPI hitting a new low [3] Conclusion - The risk-reward ratio in the stock market has become particularly evident after years of macro risks, with the current bottom position of the market not requiring a significant economic rebound for valuation recovery [4] - Patience and bottom-up research are essential for achieving favorable results in the current market environment [4]

Group 1 - The external environment has become increasingly uncertain in 2023, with fluctuating tariffs from Trump and a declining trend in domestic interest rates, leading to a focus on safe-haven assets in investment portfolios [1] - The 10-year government bond is viewed as a preferred investment choice for many investors due to its status as a benchmark for risk-free rates and its ability to cover a complete economic cycle [2] - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) has shown consistent positive returns since its inception, with annual returns of 9.02%, 16.65%, and 25.06% over the past year, three years, and five years respectively, indicating stable performance [3][4] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond ETF offers multiple advantages, including flexibility with "T+0" trading, low management fees of approximately 0.2% per year, and transparency in holdings [4] - The trading volume and scale of the 10-year government bond ETF have been increasing, with an average daily trading volume of 1.127 billion yuan and a net inflow of over 4.2 billion yuan in recent days, outperforming the market [4] - The fund manager anticipates a potential trend in the bond market in the third quarter, driven by economic cycles in both domestic and U.S. markets, presenting investment opportunities in the 10-year government bond ETF [4]