桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧2026年2月15日发帖，宣布世界秩序已经崩溃，一天之内吸引了5300万点击量。以下是他的长文原文。 It's Official: The World Order Has Broken Down 在慕尼黑安全会议上，大多数领导人宣布1945年后的世界秩序已经终结，而其背后的图景则在题为《走向毁灭》的《2026年安全报告》中有所 阐述，您可以阅读该报告。 如果您感兴趣的话。更具体地说， 德国总理弗里德里希·默茨表示， "几十年来维持的世界秩序已不复存在"，我们正处于"大国政治"时代。他明 确指出，在这个新时代，自由"不再是理所当然的"。 法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙 也呼应了默茨的观点，并表示与旧世界秩序相关的欧洲旧安全 体系已不复存在，欧洲必须做好战争准备。 美国国务卿马可·卢比奥 表示，我们正处于"新的地缘政治时代"，因为"旧世界"已经不复存在。 依我之见，我们正处于大周期的第六阶段，这一阶段的特点是缺乏规则、强权即公理，以及大国之间的冲突，由此引发了巨大的混乱。第六阶段 的运作机制在我的著作《应对不断 变化的世界秩序的原则》第六章 " 外部秩序与混乱的大周期 " 中有详细阐述 。此前 ...

达利欧宣告世界进入"大周期"第六阶段：1945年后的世界秩序已瓦解，强权即公理，大国冲突将回归原始权力博弈，贸易战、技术战、资本战将常态化 并可能升级为军事冲突。慕尼黑安全会议共识印证这一判断：旧秩序已不复存在，欧洲安全架构失效。达利欧警告经济工具将被武器化，传统避险逻辑可 能失效，黄金成为最可靠的财富贮藏手段。 全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达利欧2月14日发布重磅长文， 正式宣告世界已进入"大周期"的第六阶段，即一个没有规则、充满混乱、强权即公理的时 期。 达利欧的核心观点在于，二战后建立的1945年世界秩序已彻底瓦解，大国之间的冲突将不再受国际法约束，而是回归原始的权力博弈。他警告称， 这 一阶段通常伴随着内部动荡与外部战争的交织，直至新的秩序在冲突中确立。 据达利欧引用的最新动态，在2026年2月14日举行的慕尼黑安全会议上，全球主要领导人已就"旧秩序的终结"达成罕见共识。德国总理默茨直言"维持数 十年的世界秩序已不复存在"，并指出自由在这一新时代不再是理所当然的。法国总统马克龙呼应了这一评估，警告欧洲旧有的安全架构已失效，必须 备战。美国国务卿Marco Rubio则明确表示，世界已进入"新地缘政治时代 ...

全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达利欧2月14日发布重磅长文，正式宣告世界已进入"大周期"的第六阶 段，即一个没有规则、充满混乱、强权即公理的时期。 达利欧的核心观点在于，二战后建立的1945年世界秩序已彻底瓦解，大国之间的冲突将不再受国际法约 束，而是回归原始的权力博弈。他警告称，这一阶段通常伴随着内部动荡与外部战争的交织，直至新的 秩序在冲突中确立。 据达利欧引用的最新动态，在2026年2月14日举行的慕尼黑安全会议上，全球主要领导人已就"旧秩序的 终结"达成罕见共识。德国总理默茨直言"维持数十年的世界秩序已不复存在"，并指出自由在这一新时 代不再是理所当然的。法国总统马克龙呼应了这一评估，警告欧洲旧有的安全架构已失效，必须备战。 美国国务卿Marco Rubio则明确表示，世界已进入"新地缘政治时代"。 达利欧指出，在这一阶段，国际关系将遵循"丛林法则"。与国家内部拥有警察和法官不同，国际体系缺 乏具有强制力的超国家机构来裁决纠纷。当大国发生冲突时，它们不会寻求法律途径，而是通过威胁或 战争来解决。这意味着贸易战、技术战、地缘政治战和资本战将成为常态，并可能最终升级为军事冲 突。 对于资本市场而言，这标志着一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The world has entered the sixth stage of a "big cycle," characterized by chaos, power struggles, and the breakdown of the post-World War II order established in 1945 [1][9] Group 1: Global Order and Geopolitical Dynamics - The post-World War II order has been declared dead, with leaders from major countries acknowledging the end of this era and the need to prepare for conflict [1][2] - International relations will now follow "jungle law," lacking a supernational authority to resolve disputes, leading to conflicts being settled through threats or warfare [1][10] - The current geopolitical landscape is marked by a return to power politics, where traditional norms and laws are disregarded [1][2] Group 2: Types of Conflicts - There are five main forms of conflict between nations: trade/economic wars, technology wars, geopolitical wars, capital wars, and military wars [3][10] - The first four types of conflict often escalate before military confrontations occur, creating a cycle of tension and competition [3][12] - The dynamics of these conflicts are influenced by the "prisoner's dilemma," where opposing parties are uncertain of each other's intentions, leading to an escalation of hostilities [3][12] Group 3: Historical Context and Economic Warfare - The article draws parallels to the 1930s, where economic turmoil led to the rise of populism and authoritarianism, ultimately contributing to World War II [4][24] - Economic warfare, such as tariffs and sanctions, was prevalent before the outbreak of military conflict, exemplified by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and oil embargoes [4][24][38] - Historical market performance during wartime shows that stock markets can rise during initial military successes but may ultimately collapse following defeat [4][28] Group 4: Capital Warfare - Capital warfare tools are increasingly being utilized, including asset freezes, market access restrictions, and trade embargoes [5][6][7] - These strategies aim to undermine opponents' economic stability and restrict their access to essential resources [6][7][38] - The use of capital warfare reflects a shift towards weaponizing economic tools in international relations [5][6] Group 5: Wealth Logic During War - During wartime, governments typically impose strict controls, leading to currency devaluation and increased debt issuance to fund military efforts [8][24] - Historical evidence suggests that gold is often the best store of wealth during conflicts, as traditional financial assets may lose value [8][24] - The management of power dynamics and economic policies during periods of conflict is crucial for mitigating the impacts of upheaval [8][24]

20260128复盘 宏观： 1. 特朗普表示对美元下跌不感到担心。 还表示美国一支"大型舰队"正在前往伊朗，希望最终不必动用它。 2. 达里奥：我们正处在一个持续约80年的"大周期"（当前周期始于1945年）的末期，并正从内部冲突加剧的第5阶 段，滑向可能发生剧烈秩序重组的第6阶段。 人工智能： 1. 工业富联、SK海力士、希捷、AS 20260128复盘 1. 特朗普表示对美元下跌不感到担心。 还表示美国一支"大型舰队"正在前往伊朗，希望最终不必动用它。 2. 达里奥：我们正处在一个持续约80年的"大周期"（当前周期始于1945年）的末期，并正从内部冲突加剧的第5阶 段，滑向可能发生剧烈秩序重组的第6阶段。 人工智能： 1. 工业富联、SK海力士、希捷、ASML业绩超预期。 ASML称近几个月许多客户对人工智能需求乐观。 2. 卖方：在功率提高的进程中，液冷cage逐渐受益。 宏观： 3. 软银正洽谈向OpenAI追加投资至多300亿美元。 4. 近一年全球模型tokens使用量高速增长244%。 5. 腾讯云、阿里云上线Clawdbot。 1. 中国商火：坚决打赢主力箭首飞及回收攻坚战 全力突破可重复使 ...

全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人瑞·达利欧近日发出新的警告：美国就像一个火药桶，内战一触即发，能 否避免内战将取决于美国总统特朗普如何选择。 这位亿万富翁投资者表示，当前国家危机——从联邦特工在明尼阿波利斯枪击杀人事件到飙升的美国国 债——标志着美国"大周期"正过渡到一个更加暴力的阶段。 他在周一发表于 X 上的一篇题为"金钱、内战与国际战争、明尼阿波利斯及其他——从视角看"的长文 中警告说："美国现在就像一个火药桶。" 这篇文章大量引用了他 2021 年出版的《应对不断变化的世界秩序的原则》一书，达利欧在书中分析了 500 年的历史，解释了为什么有些国家成功而有些国家失败，并描述了一个六阶段、80 年的周期，该周 期跟踪了一个社会的货币、国内和国际秩序的演变。 达利欧在X上的帖子中说，美国是远离还是更加靠近内战的边缘，这将取决于特朗普如何选择。 他写道："许多人正拭目以待，看特朗普是会继续战斗，将美国推向更加严重的内战边缘，还是会尝试 通过呼吁和平、承诺并展示司法系统会妥善处理枪击事件以及限制移民局的行动，将我们从内战边缘拉 回来。" 多年来，达利欧一直运用他的"大周期"框架来警告说，美国已经深深陷入他所谓的第五 ...

Group 1: Currency Value Dynamics - The value of currencies has significantly declined, with the US dollar depreciating against major currencies such as the Japanese yen (down 0.3%), Chinese yuan (down 4%), euro (down 12%), Swiss franc (down 13%), and gold (down 39%) [3][4] - The best-performing investment was gold, with a return of 65% in USD terms, outperforming the S&P 500's return of 18% by 47% [3][4] - The depreciation of local currencies affects asset valuations, creating an illusion of stronger performance for assets priced in weaker currencies [4] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The nominal returns on 10-year US Treasury bonds were 9% in USD terms, but -34% when measured in gold, indicating a decline in real value due to currency depreciation [5] - The supply-demand imbalance in the bond market has not yet become a severe issue, but there is a looming need to roll over nearly $10 trillion in debt [5] - The attractiveness of debt assets is diminishing, particularly at the long end of the yield curve, as the Federal Reserve appears inclined to maintain low real interest rates [5] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - US stocks significantly lagged behind non-US stocks and gold, with European stocks outperforming US stocks by 23%, Chinese stocks by 21%, and emerging market stocks by 34% [6] - The S&P 500 index's total return of 18% was driven by a 12% increase in earnings and a 5% rise in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios [6][7] - The profitability improvements were attributed to a 7% increase in sales and a 5.3% rise in profit margins, with a notable portion of margin improvement linked to technological efficiencies [7] Group 4: Political and Economic Influences - The political landscape, particularly under the Trump administration, has significantly influenced market dynamics, with policies aimed at revitalizing American manufacturing and technology [11][12] - The shift from multilateralism to unilateralism in global politics has increased conflict risks and led to higher military spending and borrowing [13][14] - The growing wealth and income disparity has created a political environment where inflation concerns are more pronounced among lower-income groups, potentially impacting future elections [11][12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The interplay of debt, currency, market, and economic forces, along with domestic political dynamics and geopolitical tensions, will continue to shape the global economic landscape [14] - The potential for rising interest rates due to currency depreciation and supply-demand pressures could negatively impact credit and equity markets [8][9] - The ongoing AI boom and its implications for productivity and market valuations remain a critical area for future analysis [14]

Core Viewpoint - The podcast episode titled "When the Big Cycle Fails, Where is the New Macro Coordinate?" hosted by fund manager Tang Jun from Zhongtai Asset Management has gained significant attention, with over 60,000 listeners in a week, indicating a strong interest among investors in learning about macroeconomic frameworks and investment strategies [2][5]. Group 1: Framework Construction - The background and reasons for the effectiveness and ineffectiveness of the Merrill Clock are discussed [5]. - The "Credit-Money" framework is introduced, explaining how to describe the current macroeconomic state based on this framework [5]. - The current macroeconomic state leads to specific asset allocation conclusions [5]. Group 2: Allocation and Portfolio Construction - The distinction between active and passive allocation is made, highlighting the problems that active allocation can solve [9]. - Preparations required for engaging in active allocation are outlined [9]. - The role of FOF (Fund of Funds) in addressing specific issues is examined [9]. - The execution of strategic and tactical layers in investment is discussed [9]. Group 3: Reflections on Human Nature - The importance of understanding human behavior in the context of investment allocation is emphasized, inviting listeners to engage in a professional and rigorous intellectual exchange [6]. Group 4: Risk and Return Concepts - The concept of risk budgeting and how to construct a portfolio within a given risk budget is explained [9]. - The notion of return streams and which assets can represent different return streams is analyzed, drawing lessons from Bridgewater's practices [9]. - The significance of having a framework in investment decision-making is highlighted [9]. - The meaning of logic in investment and the application of probabilistic thinking in market timing are discussed [9].

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector continues to show strong performance, with the Chemical ETF (516020) rising by 3.33%, reaching a new high since the rebound in September 2022 [1] - The price-to-book ratio of the Chemical ETF's underlying index is 2.41, which is at a relatively low level, indicating good medium to long-term investment value [1] - The basic chemical sector is expected to see an upward trend starting in 2026, driven by resilient domestic and external demand, as well as improvements in market structure [1] Group 2: Metal Sector Insights - The leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) has shown a significant cumulative increase of 181.27% since its inception, outperforming other non-ferrous metal indices [3] - The non-ferrous metal sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance, supported by global monetary easing and strategic resource positioning [2] - The expected net profit growth for the non-ferrous metal ETF's underlying index is 54.5% in 2025, leading among its peers, with a continued growth forecast of 21.0% in 2026 [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Chemical ETF has a diversified portfolio, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, allowing investors to capitalize on strong performers [2] - The non-ferrous metal sector is characterized by strong and sustained growth potential, making it an attractive investment opportunity compared to other indices [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report analyzes the fund flow of exchange-traded index funds from September 15 to September 19, 2025, highlighting significant trends in various categories [1][2]. - The overall fund flow indicates a mixed performance across different index categories, with notable outflows in major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [6][7]. Group 2: Fund Flow by Category - The Shanghai 50 index had a fund size of 159.46 billion yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.71% and a net outflow of 5.98 billion yuan [6]. - The CSI 300 index, with a fund size of 983.45 billion yuan, experienced a slight decline of 0.39% and a significant net outflow of 33.92 billion yuan [6]. - The ChiNext index showed a positive trend with a weekly increase of 2.17% and a net inflow of 5.76 billion yuan, indicating investor interest in growth sectors [6]. - In the technology sector, the large technology category saw a fund size of 216.69 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.20% and a substantial net inflow of 58.01 billion yuan [7]. - The large financial category faced a decline of 3.20% with a net inflow of 140.61 billion yuan, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [7]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The healthcare sector had a fund size of 100.16 billion yuan, with a weekly decline of 2.11% and a modest net inflow of 5.94 billion yuan, reflecting cautious investor behavior [7]. - The manufacturing sector reported a fund size of 72.82 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.19% and a net inflow of 64.79 billion yuan, indicating resilience in this area [7]. - The consumer sector showed a slight decline of 0.24% with a net inflow of 32.55 billion yuan, suggesting mixed investor confidence [7]. Group 4: International Indices - The Nasdaq 100 index had a fund size of 78.42 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.84% and a net outflow of 0.67 billion yuan, indicating fluctuating investor interest [11]. - The S&P 500 index reported a fund size of 20.84 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.50% and a net inflow of 0.77 billion yuan, reflecting stable performance [11]. - The Hang Seng index had a fund size of 19.17 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.40% and a net outflow of 3.72 billion yuan, suggesting challenges in the Hong Kong market [11].