全年新增装机维持5 吉瓦的目标，"十五五"仍聚焦大基地及海风建设。随之"136 文"新政出台，公司上 半年新增装机规模加速至达2.1 吉瓦（风电/光伏分别占0.99/1.09 吉瓦），管理层维持全年新增装机5 吉 瓦目标，当中包括腾格里大基地项目约1 吉瓦的装机，将在3Q25 内投运。资源获取方面，上半年新增 开发指标4.75 吉瓦（风电/光伏分别为2.98 /1.77 吉瓦）。公司表示，"十五五"仍集中大基地及海上风电 的建设，我们预计2026 和2027 年新增装机在6 吉瓦。我们预计公司2025 年全年资本开支在200 亿元左 右，净负债股本比预期从上半年的168%回落至年底的161%。 轻微下调盈利预测，预期2025/26 年盈利温和增长。我们下调公司2025/26 年盈利预测约0.8%/0.6%，主 要反映电价同比下降的影响。下半年我们预计公司因以大换小的风机改造，将有约9 亿元的减值，2025 年盈利仍将同比增长4.4%。公司已公布2025-2027 年分红规划，现金分红比例不低于归母净利润30%。 目前预计2025/26 年股息率在3.8%/4.0%。我们维持9 倍市盈率的估值基准不变（相对五年 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [2][14]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain its annual new installed capacity target of 5 GW despite weaker operational performance in the first half of 2025, which is in line with expectations. The target price has been raised to HKD 8.23, reflecting a potential upside of 19.8% from the current price of HKD 6.87 [2][6][14]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 29,631 million, with a year-on-year decline of 25.7%. The revenue is expected to grow to RMB 34,606 million by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 10.3% [5][15]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 6,157 million, with a projected increase to RMB 6,658 million by 2025, indicating a growth of 4.4% [5][15]. - The company has a dividend payout ratio of 24% for the interim dividend, with a planned cash dividend ratio of no less than 30% of net profit for 2025-2027 [6][15]. Operational Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a net profit of RMB 3,519 million, a decrease of 13.6% year-on-year, primarily due to lower utilization hours and electricity prices [6][7]. - The average utilization hours for wind power were 1,102 hours, slightly above the industry average of 1,087 hours, but down by 68 hours year-on-year [6][8]. - The company achieved a new installed capacity of 2.1 GW in the first half of 2025, with wind and solar contributing 0.99 GW and 1.09 GW, respectively [6][9]. Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 22,793.84 million, with a 52-week high of HKD 8.29 and a low of HKD 5.31 [4][6]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 60.20 million shares [4]. Future Projections - The company aims to achieve a total installed capacity of 46,643 MW by 2025, with significant contributions from both wind and solar energy [9][15]. - Capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to be around RMB 20 billion, with a net debt-to-equity ratio projected to decrease from 168% to 161% by year-end [6][15].