2026年的四大系统性变化 王淦 中信证券研究部 大类资产配置分析师 2025年11月11日 请务必阅读末页的免责条款和声明 核心结论 2026年大类资产配置策略 变化之一：经济周期的新阶段。需求端对经济的拖累正在减弱，宏观环境"否极泰来"的迹象越发明晰。M1和PPI等经济周期的领先指标 指向经济周期已经进入为反弹蓄力的最后阶段。不过，也需注意到经济周期的修复并非一簇而就，资产负债表、外需、就业预期和政策节 奏都将是影响修复节奏的重要因素。 变化之二：PPI从负增长到正增长。在货币活跃程度已经先行回暖、油价有望出现反弹、翘尾因素减弱等多重因素的共同作用下，2026年 PPI单月同比增速有望回升并走出负增长区间。 变化之三：潜在的美联储降息周期拐点。考虑到劳动力市场的恶化对美联储货币政策的减弱作用应该是边际减弱的，且美国通胀黏性并未 实际减弱，美联储2026年存在结束降息周期的可能性。 变化之四：中国资产的收益波动特征。中国债券低波动的特征可能还将延续，但在利率相比GDP偏低、债市收益相比利率偏高的环境下， 债市预期收益可能会稳定在偏低的水平；股票则需关注估值高位后的波动放大趋势。 大类资产配置策略 A股：估值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Dongxing Blue Ocean Wealth Mixed A (002182) reported a profit of 1.2191 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0426 yuan, and a net asset value growth rate of 6.42% during the period [3][15]. Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's unit net value was 0.722 yuan, with a three-month net value growth rate of 3.88%, ranking 52 out of 119 comparable funds [4]. - The fund's six-month net value growth rate was 2.12%, ranking 84 out of 119, while the one-year growth rate was 4.49%, ranking 89 out of 119 [4]. - Over the past three years, the fund's net value growth rate was -3.60%, ranking 69 out of 119 [4]. Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was 0.0621, ranking 57 out of 119 comparable funds [8]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 16.58%, with the highest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2022 at 17.61% [10]. Asset Allocation - The average stock position over the past three years was 63.86%, compared to the industry average of 46.3% [13]. - The fund reached its highest stock position of 93.76% by the end of Q3 2024, while the lowest was 0.12% at the end of Q3 2023 [13]. Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, the top ten holdings of the fund included Huahong Semiconductor, Naxin Micro, Sitaiwei, Hengxuan Technology, Ruichuang Micro, BeiGene, Hongsoft Technology, Zhongke Feimiao, Guodun Quantum, and CloudWalk Technology [18].