在美国总统特朗普宣布解职美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）后，美元、美债、美股期货等美元资产 再遭新一轮抛售，避险资产黄金上涨。这背后的主要逻辑在于，市场担心，美联储独立性将进一步受到 损害。 自1913年美联储成立以来，虽然美国总统偶尔会抨击其政策选择，但从未有美国总统罢免过美联储七人 理事会成员。布鲁金斯学会高级研究员克拉恩（Aaron Klein）直言："这是对美联储独立性的致命一 击。特朗普已表明态度，将不择手段地让美联储做他想做的事。" 抛售美元资产理由再加一 当地时间25日晚，特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上发表公开信称："根据《美国宪法》第二条和经修订 的《1913年联邦储备法》所授予我的权力，我特此解除您（库克）在联邦储备委员会的职务，立即生 效。" 根据《联邦储备法》第10条，总统能"因故"解职理事会成员。库克于2022年获得时任美国总统拜 登提名担任美联储理事，任期本将持续至2038年。 库克随后反击称，特朗普无权解雇她，她也不会辞职。库克的律师拉威尔（Abbe Lowell）表示，他们 计划采取"任何必要的行动来防止"特朗普的"非法行为"。"特朗普总统声称'有理由'解雇我，但法律上 ...

美股期货下跌，并拖累多个亚太主要股指跟随下跌。MSCI最广泛亚太股指（除日本外）开盘下跌 0.2%。日经指数开盘下跌1.3%，截至收盘跌幅为0.97%。韩国综合指数收盘下跌30.50点。上证指数和香 港恒生指数分别下跌0.39%和1.18%。欧洲股指同样下跌。到26日晚截稿时，欧洲斯托克50指数下跌 0.76%，德国DAX指数期货下跌0.38%，富时指数期货下跌0.53%。 华侨银行外汇策略师克里斯托弗·黄（Christopher Wong）表示："这是担忧美联储独立性受削弱对美元 造成压力的又一个例子，并对未来联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的潜在组成产生影响。后者会在中长 期加剧降息预期和美元疲软前景。" 在美国总统特朗普宣布解职美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）后，美元、美债、美股期货等美元资产 再遭新一轮抛售，避险资产黄金上涨。这背后的主要逻辑在于，市场担心，美联储独立性将进一步受到 损害。 自1913年美联储成立以来，虽然美国总统偶尔会抨击其政策选择，但从未有美国总统罢免过美联储七人 理事会成员。布鲁金斯学会高级研究员克拉恩（Aaron Klein）直言："这是对美联储独立性的致命一 击。特朗 ...

抛售美元资产理由再加一 当地时间25日晚，特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上发表公开信称："根据《美国宪法》第二条和经修订 的《1913年联邦储备法》所授予我的权力，我特此解除您（库克）在联邦储备委员会的职务，立即生 效。" 根据《联邦储备法》第10条，总统能"因故"解职理事会成员。库克于2022年获得时任美国总统拜 登提名担任美联储理事，任期本将持续至2038年。 库克随后反击称，特朗普无权解雇她，她也不会辞职。库克的律师拉威尔（Abbe Lowell）表示，他们 计划采取"任何必要的行动来防止"特朗普的"非法行为"。"特朗普总统声称'有理由'解雇我，但法律上根 本不存在所谓的'理由'，他也无权如此行事。"库克在她的律师发表的一份声明中称，"我不会辞职。我 将继续履行我的职责，帮助美国经济，就像我自2022年以来所做的那样。" 虽然两人的"一来一往"还在继续，但投资者已率先用脚投票，再度抛售美元资产。美元指数下跌0.3%， 至98.187。当地时间25日，该指数一度创下本月最大单日涨幅。美元对日元下跌0.4%，至147.24。欧元 对美元也上涨0.3%，至1.165。 美债收益率曲线进一步陡峭化，因市场押注特朗 ...

道富银行东京分行经理哇卡巴亚什（Bart Wakabayashi）更直言："特朗普的所作所为，包括关税，只会不断增加美国不可信任的原因。而可 信度，这曾经是美元资产成为全球最安全投资的基础。作为一个负责任的投资者，这些足以让你停止投资美元资产。" 包括巴克莱银行、法巴银行和德意志银行在内的多家投行目前均预计美联储将在9月降息25个基点。根据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具 （Fed Watch），美联储基金期货交易员预计9月降息的可能性为84%。 在美国总统特朗普"史无前例"地宣布解职美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）后，26日亚太交易时段，美元、美债齐跌，避险资产黄金、日元 上涨。 市场担心，美联储独立性将进一步受到损害。自1913年美联储成立以来，虽然美国总统偶尔会抨击其政策选择，但从未有美国总统罢免过美 联储七人理事会成员。 康奈尔大学教授普拉萨德（Eswar Prasad）称："这是一种违反美联储独立性的非同寻常的侵犯行为。特朗普现在已经对美国制度框架宣战， 而该框架支撑着美元在全球金融中的主导地位。" 当地时间25日晚，特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上发表公开信称，"根据《美国宪法》第二条和经修 ...

在美国总统特朗普"史无前例"地宣布解职美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）后，26日亚太交易时段， 美元、美债齐跌，避险资产黄金、日元上涨。 市场担心，美联储独立性将进一步受到损害。自1913年美联储成立以来，虽然美国总统偶尔会抨击其政 策选择，但从未有美国总统罢免过美联储七人理事会成员。 抛售美元资产理由再加一个 康奈尔大学教授普拉萨德（Eswar Prasad）称："这是一种违反美联储独立性的非同寻常的侵犯行为。特 朗普现在已经对美国制度框架宣战，而该框架支撑着美元在全球金融中的主导地位。" 当地时间25日晚，特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上发表公开信称，"根据《美国宪法》第二条和经修订 的《1913年联邦储备法》所授予我的权力，我特此解除您（库克）在联邦储备委员会的职务，立即生 效。"库克的任期本将持续至2038年。 投资者抛售美元资产的导火索再度被点燃。美元指数下跌0.3%，至98.187。25日，该指数一度创下本月 最大单日涨幅。美元兑日元下跌0.4%，至147.24。欧元兑美元也上涨0.3%，至1.165美元。 美债收益率曲线进一步陡峭化，因市场押注特朗普谋求更大幅度、更快降息的意图更可能实现 ...

近期，美国总统特朗普解雇美国劳工统计局局长麦肯塔弗（Erika McEntarfer）。这一做法叠加他对美 联储主席鲍威尔的态度和关税政策影响，令经济学家和市场人士陷于新的忧虑下。 经济学家警告，对任何一个经济体而言，经济数据可信度均易毁难重建，且会影响货币和财政政策制 定。市场人士警示，特朗普此举可能进一步打击美元资产，并与他所希望的相反，推高美国长期利率。 经济学家警示：经济数据可信度易毁难重建 国际统计学会发表声明称，特朗普此举违反了联合国旨在保护基于事实的统计数据的原则，呼吁美国政 府采取措施，恢复公众对美国联邦数据的信心。 多个教训已证明，经济学家的担忧绝非杞人忧天。希腊在21世纪前十年期间竭力掩盖不断攀升的公共赤 字，最终引发主权债务危机。随后，为了恢复数据信誉，希腊经历了漫长的改革。2016年，希腊对其国 家统计局（ELSTAT）进行全面改革，并成立一个国际专家小组来任命其首席统计师，向国际社会传递 为改善预算做出的努力。希腊的情况还促使欧洲各国政府授予欧盟统计局（Eurostat）权力，令后者有 权检查收到的可疑国家统计数据。 2019年以来，土耳其已四次更换土耳其统计研究所（TUIK）负责人 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the US dollar has depreciated by 10% against developed market currencies since early 2025, with a trade-weighted decline of 8%, and this downward trend is expected to continue [1][3] - Goldman Sachs analysts emphasize that during periods of dollar weakness, the performance of various assets can differ significantly, necessitating a strategy that considers specific driving factors [3] - The report suggests that merely reducing dollar-denominated assets is not the optimal choice; instead, using derivatives or cross-market hedging can help mitigate currency fluctuations while preserving asset return potential [3] Group 2 - The report indicates that if the long-term weakness of the dollar is due to a decline in investor appetite for US assets or a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy, the direct impact on US stocks and bonds may be limited [3] - Investors are advised to adopt dynamic hedging strategies based on their portfolio structure rather than making aggressive adjustments to dollar asset allocations, aiming to balance risk and return [3] - Current market focus is on the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory and changes in global capital flows to assess the next steps for the dollar [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar, which has fallen 8% since early 2025, and predicts that this trend will continue, suggesting that hedging against dollar exchange rate risks is more effective than simply selling dollar-denominated assets [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar Depreciation Trends - Since early 2025, the dollar has depreciated by 10% against developed market currencies and 8% on a trade-weighted basis [1]. - Historical data shows that during periods of dollar weakness, asset performance can vary significantly, with US equities often rising but underperforming compared to overseas markets [2]. Group 2: Macro Drivers of Dollar Movement - Goldman Sachs identifies three main factors influencing dollar trends: "US growth," "US monetary policy," and "non-US/risk premium" [3]. - Concerns about US growth typically lead to simultaneous declines in the dollar and US equities, while dovish Fed policy expectations weaken the dollar and lower US yields [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The report suggests that reducing exposure to US assets may be reasonable if the dollar continues to weaken, with emerging market assets likely to benefit [4]. - The analysis indicates that hedging against currency risks in US equities may be more compelling than reducing allocations to US stocks, as returns after hedging during dollar weakness periods have been comparable to global markets [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant shift in global investment sentiment, highlighting a rebound in the US economy and a potential strengthening of the US dollar, which contrasts with the previous preference for non-US assets like European stocks, emerging markets, and gold [1][3][8]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The US economy showed an unexpected rebound in Q2, leading to a potential monthly increase in the dollar by 3% for the first time in 2025 [3][5]. - The AI boom has driven US stock markets to continually reach new historical highs [1][3]. Group 2: Shift in Investment Sentiment - Previously strong-performing European markets, emerging market assets, and gold are now experiencing declines, with gold facing its first three-month consecutive drop since November of the previous year [5][9]. - The euro has fallen below 1.15 against the dollar, marking the largest monthly decline since May 2023, and the relative advantage of European stocks over US stocks has diminished [5][10]. Group 3: Reassessment of Non-US Assets - A consensus is forming around the re-evaluation of the "rest of the world trade" logic, as speculative funds that previously bet on dollar depreciation are now retreating [7][8]. - Trend-following hedge funds have closed their short positions on US Treasuries and reduced their exposure to European stocks [8][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - There are mixed opinions on the sustainability of the dollar's strength, with some analysts predicting a rotation towards US stocks and currency markets, while others remain cautious about the long-term outlook for the dollar [9][10]. - Concerns persist that rising tariffs could eventually hinder US economic growth, despite current strong performance in the stock market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is showing a strong upward trend against major currencies, supported by robust US economic data and increasing uncertainty in other major economies, which enhances the dollar's relative attractiveness [1][3]. Economic Data Impact - The US dollar index is currently stable at 98.456, having risen 0.91% last week and an additional 0.64% this week, reaching a high of 98.951, the highest level since June 23 [3]. - Recent US economic data, including a rebound in June retail sales exceeding market expectations and a drop in initial jobless claims to a three-month low, indicates a resilient consumer spending and a tight labor market, providing the Federal Reserve with more room to observe before making rate cuts [3]. - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have adjusted, with traders now anticipating a reduction of about 45 basis points for the remainder of the year, down from nearly 50 basis points earlier in the week [3]. Global Economic Uncertainty - Uncertainty in other major economies, particularly Japan, is contributing to the strength of the dollar. Upcoming elections in Japan pose risks to the ruling coalition, potentially complicating economic stimulus plans and trade negotiations with the US [4]. - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 0.8% against the dollar this week, reflecting market concerns over Japan's policy continuity [4]. Political Influences - Political developments in the US, including President Trump's proposed spending and tax cuts, have raised concerns about the US fiscal situation, which could negatively impact the dollar's credit foundation in the long term [4]. - Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not cutting rates immediately has increased volatility in the dollar's performance, highlighting the influence of political factors on monetary policy and investor confidence [4]. Market Reactions - The attractiveness of US dollar assets is showing signs of divergence. Despite a slight increase in US Treasury yields, foreign investors have continued to buy US debt, with net purchases reaching $32 billion this week, indicating recognition of the dollar as a safe asset [6]. - Conversely, the US stock market has seen some profit-taking, with a net outflow of $12 billion from the S&P 500 this week, reflecting a reassessment of the balance between stock valuations and the strength of the dollar [6].