想象一下，一辆重型卡车拖着38.5万亿美元的货物在高速公路上狂奔，但司机发现，光是给这辆车加油的钱，已经超过了养活一整支军队的 开销。 这不是科幻小说的情节，而是2026年初美国财政的真实写照。 2023财年，美国联邦政府为国债支付的利息达到了8790亿美元，同期的 国防预算只有8200亿美元。 这意味着，美国用来"养债"的钱，历史上第一次超过了"养兵"的钱。 每分钟，美国财政部的账本上就会新增约 230万美元的利息账单。 这个数字反转，像一记重锤，敲响了帝国财政的警钟。 这些举动并非孤立的财务调整。 美国晨星公司面向全球约500家管理着19万亿美元资产的机构投资者的调查显示，高达40%的受访者表示已 经或计划削减美元资产的配置。 76%的投资者最关注美国的关税政策与贸易摩擦，73%担忧美国政府的整体政策。 地缘政治的摩擦加剧了资 本的避险情绪。 在特朗普政府公开表示仍在推进收购丹麦自治领地格陵兰岛，并威胁对欧洲国家加征关税后，丹麦养老基金PBU的负责人坦 言，减持美债是为了"摆脱对美国的依赖，以防特朗普决定直接对丹麦金融业实施制裁"。 抛售的浪潮从北欧迅速扩散。 印度央行持续收缩美债持仓，规模降至1740亿 ...

□新华社记者 金丹依 不少欧洲金融机构和咨询公司近日表示，随着美国货币和财政政策不确定性日益显现，越来越多的欧洲 资本正减持美元资产，把投资重心转向欧洲及新兴市场经济体。欧洲资本短期内无法摆脱对美国金融市 场的依赖，但欧洲投资者调整资产配置、寻求多元化策略、热议"卖出美国"，正探索与美元资产保持长 期"安全距离"。 英国巴克莱银行此前对管理着总额达7．8万亿美元的342名投资者展开问卷调查。结果显示，投资者对 总部设在美国的对冲基金的投资意愿显著下降，对总部设在亚洲和欧洲的对冲基金的投资意愿大幅上 升。该机构指出，这是2023年以来投资者首次对美国对冲基金表现出投资意愿减弱的现象。 法国东方汇理资产管理公司是欧洲最大资管机构。该机构首席执行官瓦莱丽·鲍德松日前表示，该机构 在过去一年多时间里一直推动投资多元化，建议客户分散投资。她表示，如果美国维持现行经济政策， 美元可能持续走弱。 荷兰养老基金ABP公布数据显示，从2024年年末至2025年9月，基金所持美债市值从近290亿欧元大幅降 至近190亿欧元。荷兰公共广播公司分析认为，市值大幅缩水不太可能是美债价格波动所致，更可能是 基金出售美债或决定不购新债。 ...

欧洲资本寻求更安全、更稳健投资策略的趋势明显，也正在实践中探索与美元资产的"安全距离"。德国 管理咨询机构罗兰贝格全球董事总经理马库斯·贝雷在接受新华社记者采访时说，在复杂多变的国际环 境下，欧洲机构虽然没有完全撤出美元资产，但资产配置多元化已经成为多数投资者的战略性调整。 丹麦哥本哈根商学院金融学教授杰斯珀·朗维德也告诉记者，对美元资产的担忧作为一种心理效应，本 身就可能改变投资者行为，令美元资产价格承压。"欧洲讨论减少美元资产，本身就是对美国'亮红 灯'。" 据新华社电 不少欧洲金融机构和咨询公司近日表示，随着美国货币和财政政策不确定性日益显现，越 来越多的欧洲资本正减持美元资产，把投资重心转向欧洲及新兴市场经济体。欧洲资本短期内无法摆脱 对美国金融市场的依赖，但欧洲投资者调整资产配置、寻求多元化策略、热议"卖出美国"，正探索与美 元资产保持长期"安全距离"。 英国巴克莱银行此前对管理着总额达7.8万亿美元的342名投资者展开问卷调查。结果显示，投资者对总 部设在美国的对冲基金的投资意愿显著下降，对总部设在亚洲和欧洲的对冲基金的投资意愿大幅上升。 该机构指出，这是2023年以来投资者首次对美国对冲基金表现 ...

Core Viewpoint - European financial institutions are increasingly reducing their investments in US dollar assets and shifting focus towards European and emerging market economies due to growing uncertainties in US monetary and fiscal policies [1][2][3] Group 1: Investment Trends - A survey by Barclays Bank revealed that investor willingness to invest in US-based hedge funds has significantly decreased, while interest in hedge funds based in Asia and Europe has notably increased [1] - The Dutch pension fund ABP reported a substantial decline in the market value of its US Treasury holdings, from nearly €29 billion to around €19 billion, indicating a potential sale of US debt rather than mere price fluctuations [2] - Major European pension funds, including Sweden's Alecta and Denmark's AkademikerPension, have announced plans to sell or have already sold their US Treasury holdings [2] Group 2: Risk Assessment - Analysts suggest that the trend of European capital reallocating away from US assets reflects a rational assessment of multiple risks, including geopolitical tensions and economic policies from the US that have increased market uncertainty [2][3] - The ongoing discussions in Europe about the potential "weaponization" of US assets highlight the growing concerns regarding the stability of US investments [2] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - European institutions are not completely divesting from dollar assets but are strategically diversifying their asset allocations to mitigate risks associated with US policies [3] - The shift in investment behavior towards reducing exposure to dollar assets is seen as a psychological effect that could further pressure the prices of these assets [3] - There is a clear trend of structural adjustment within European capital, with investors actively hedging against political risks related to US policies and reassessing their long-term relationships with the US market [3]

新华社贝尔格莱德2月12日电 新闻分析｜欧洲资本欲与美元资产保持"安全距离" 新华社记者金丹依 不少欧洲金融机构和咨询公司近日表示，随着美国货币和财政政策不确定性日益显现，越来越多的欧洲 资本正减持美元资产，把投资重心转向欧洲及新兴市场经济体。欧洲资本短期内无法摆脱对美国金融市 场的依赖，但欧洲投资者调整资产配置、寻求多元化策略、热议"卖出美国"，正探索与美元资产保持长 期"安全距离"。 英国巴克莱银行此前对管理着总额达7.8万亿美元的342名投资者展开问卷调查。结果显示，投资者对总 部设在美国的对冲基金的投资意愿显著下降，对总部设在亚洲和欧洲的对冲基金的投资意愿大幅上升。 该机构指出，这是2023年以来投资者首次对美国对冲基金表现出投资意愿减弱的现象。 法国东方汇理资产管理公司是欧洲最大资管机构。该机构首席执行官瓦莱丽·鲍德松日前表示，该机构 在过去一年多时间里一直推动投资多元化，建议客户分散投资。她表示，如果美国维持现行经济政策， 美元可能持续走弱。 荷兰养老基金ABP公布数据显示，从2024年年末至2025年9月，基金所持美债市值从近290亿欧元大幅降 至近190亿欧元。荷兰公共广播公司分析认为，市值大 ...

东方汇理成为最新一家明确表示将削减或对冲其美国资产风险敞口的大型投资机构。瑞典最大私人养老 基金阿莱克塔养老基金1月说，鉴于美国政府的"不可预测性以及不断增长的美国债务"，该基金在过去 一年内已出售其所持大部分美国国债。 鲍德松说，过去一年，国际投资者最初通过购买黄金对冲美元贬值风险，这在很大程度上解释了同期金 价大幅上涨的原因。该公司随后发现，人们希望分散投资，以实现资产多元化，因为美元资产存在过度 投资的问题。 《金融时报》报道，上述资金动向已推动资本流向欧洲和新兴市场资产，包括债券和股票。去年，新兴 市场股市迎来自2017年以来表现最好的一年。 来源：新华社 欧洲最大资产管理机构东方汇理说，该公司将继续减少美元资产风险敞口，转向欧洲和新兴市场。 英国《金融时报》9日援引东方汇理首席执行官瓦莱丽·鲍德松的话说，未来一年，东方汇理将建议客户 减持美元资产。她警告说，如果美国经济政策不改变，"我们将继续看到美元走弱"。 鲍德松说："在过去12个月至15个月，东方汇理一直大力推动投资多元化，并建议客户分散投资……今 后一年，我们仍将继续建议客户实现投资组合多样化。" ...

【新华社微特稿】欧洲最大资产管理机构东方汇理说，该公司将继续减少美元资产风险敞口，转向欧洲 和新兴市场。 东方汇理成为最新一家明确表示将削减或对冲其美国资产风险敞口的大型投资机构。瑞典最大私人养老 基金阿莱克塔养老基金1月说，鉴于美国政府的"不可预测性以及不断增长的美国债务"，该基金在过去 一年内已出售其所持大部分美国国债。 鲍德松说，过去一年，国际投资者最初通过购买黄金对冲美元贬值风险，这在很大程度上解释了同期金 价大幅上涨的原因。该公司随后发现，人们希望分散投资，以实现资产多元化，因为美元资产存在过度 投资的问题。 《金融时报》报道，上述资金动向已推动资本流向欧洲和新兴市场资产，包括债券和股票。去年，新兴 市场股市迎来自2017年以来表现最好的一年。（完）（卜晓明） 英国《金融时报》9日援引东方汇理首席执行官瓦莱丽·鲍德松的话说，未来一年，东方汇理将建议客户 减持美元资产。她警告说，如果美国经济政策不改变，"我们将继续看到美元走弱"。 鲍德松说："在过去12个月至15个月，东方汇理一直大力推动投资多元化，并建议客户分散投资……今 后一年，我们仍将继续建议客户实现投资组合多样化。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Amundi, Europe's largest asset management company with €2.8 trillion (approximately ¥23 trillion) in assets under management, signals a significant shift by reducing investments in dollar assets and focusing on Europe and emerging markets, warning that the dollar will continue to weaken if U.S. economic policies remain unchanged [2][3]. Group 1: Amundi's Perspective - Amundi, as a conservative institutional investor, is particularly averse to unquantifiable tail risks and the failure of asset correlation, which are expected to converge dangerously in the U.S. market by 2026 [2]. - The company predicts a significant slowdown in U.S. real GDP growth to 1.6% by 2026, driven by structural factors such as exhausted private demand, diminishing marginal utility of fiscal stimulus, and policy uncertainty [3][4]. Group 2: Changing Dynamics of Dollar Assets - The dual advantages of dollar assets—growth and yield spread—are simultaneously diminishing [4]. - There is a fundamental reversal in the correlation between the dollar and U.S. equities and bonds; previously, the dollar would rise as a safe haven when equities fell, but now it moves in tandem with risk assets due to concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [5][12]. Group 3: Seven Certainties - Amundi summarizes its macroeconomic judgments into "Seven Certainties," indicating a bearish outlook on dollar assets due to factors like rising inflation, geopolitical risks, and a preference for European credit and emerging market bonds [6][7]. - The strategic pillars include expectations of rising inflation, the need for diversification away from the dollar, and a focus on real and alternative assets as optimal substitutes during periods of currency depreciation [6]. Group 4: Structural Changes and Market Behavior - Over the past 12 months, despite a 14% rise in the S&P 500 due to AI investments, the dollar has depreciated by 10% against a basket of currencies since January 2025, indicating poor performance of U.S. assets when measured in foreign currencies [8][9]. - The U.S. market has experienced a "three-way kill" of stocks, bonds, and currency, reflecting instability akin to emerging markets, which raises concerns about the safety of dollar assets [10][11]. Group 5: The End of the "American Exception" - The underlying structural changes suggest a rewriting of the global financial system's fundamentals, with the assumption that the Federal Reserve can independently control inflation being challenged by rising federal debt and interest payments [12][14]. - The paradox of U.S. trade policy, which aims to reduce imports while expecting foreign entities to continue purchasing U.S. debt, poses a significant risk to the dollar's value and asset valuations [14].

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Amundi, the largest asset management company in Europe, announced a strategic shift away from dollar assets towards investments in Europe and emerging markets [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Over the past 12 to 15 months, the company has significantly diversified its investments and is advising clients to adopt a diversified asset allocation in the coming year [3]. - The CEO warned that if current U.S. economic policies persist, the dollar is likely to continue weakening [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Key drivers for the large-scale shift of funds from the dollar to other assets include the U.S. fiscal deficit, erratic economic policies, and uncertainty regarding future Federal Reserve policies [5]. - Initially, international investors hedged against dollar depreciation by purchasing gold, but have since begun to actively reduce their allocation to U.S. assets to lessen dependence on the dollar [5]. Group 3: Company Performance - Amundi's latest performance report indicates that by the end of December 2025, the company's assets under management are projected to reach a record high of €2.4 trillion [5].

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Amundi, the largest asset management company in Europe, indicates a strategic shift away from dollar assets towards investments in Europe and emerging markets [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Amundi has significantly diversified its investments over the past 12 to 15 months [1] - The company advises clients to diversify their asset allocations in the coming year [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The CEO warns that if current U.S. economic policies remain unchanged, the dollar is expected to continue weakening [1]