在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出 更优质的内容 文 |小戎 哈喽，大家好，小戎这篇国际评论，主要来分析人民币兑美元冲破7.0创新高、逼近6时代，解读这波升 值的内外动因，以及2026年汇率走势的核心变量。 家人们！最近人民币兑美元可太会搞事了，直接冲破7.0大关，创下15个月新高，离"6"字头就差临门一 脚，这波操作堪称金融圈的"逆袭爽文"！ 美元跌惨倒逼人民币升值？ 自今年4月开启升值buff后，累计涨了6%，把前两年的震荡摆烂格局直接打破。别以为这跟咱没关系， 不管你想留学血拼、出国旅游，还是企业做进出口生意，都得被这汇率牵着走。 其实人民币这波"开挂"，说白了就是"借东风+练内功"双buff叠加，先说说这"东风"——美元变弱了， 2025年美元指数从110点跌到98，年内跌了快10%，纯属"自己摆烂给对手送分"。 为啥美元不行了？美联储忙着降息放水啊，今年降了三次息，还每月买400亿美国国债，相当于直接把 美元资产的吸引力"打骨折"，全球资本一看这架势，赶紧跑路找新归宿。 更别提美元信用还在掉链子，"去美元化"成了潮流，人民币作为非美货币里的潜力股，自然 ...

文 |无言 2025年12月25日中午，离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7这个关键整数关口。 截至当天，人民币对美元汇率从年初到现在已经升值不少，创下了2024年10月以来的新高。 同一时间，A股市场也传来好消息，中午收盘时上证指数已经实现7连涨，深证成指和创业板指也累计 达成5连涨。 这两个信号凑到一起，让不少投资者都在琢磨，市场是不是要借着这股劲儿，拉开春季行情的序幕了？ 人民币破7，支撑力在哪 人民币能强势升破7，不是凭空出现的情况。 核心支撑还是来自美联储的货币政策调整。 2025年美联储连续降息，这直接导致美元表现疲软。 从美元指数就能看出来，全年跌了不少，不光是对人民币贬值，对欧元、英镑、日元这些主要国际货 币，美元也都出现了贬值。 美元一弱，全球资金的流向就会发生变化。 本来不少资金都盯着美元资产，现在美元信用有所削弱，这些资金就开始往新兴市场转移。 人民币资产作为新兴市场里的重要选项，自然吸引了不少关注，这也为人民币升值添了一把力。 可能有人会觉得，不就是一个汇率关口破了吗？其实不然，这个关口的突破，更多是市场信心的一种体 现，说明大家对人民币资产的认可度在提升。 A股连涨，量能藏玄机 A股和人民币升 ...

美元指数日K线图 港伦敦金日K线图 美元信用的裂痕，在2025年被一次又一次地撕扯，裂口愈发扩大。 "对等关税"引发的全球贸易震荡、美元资产的抛售潮、美国政府创纪录停摆等事件，就像美元信用基座 的一根根柱石被不断踢倒。美元指数仅上半年就跌超10%，现货黄金年内飙升近68%，成为2025年国际 金融市场最鲜明的注脚。 与此同时，在2025年，人民币站在贸易与金融的交汇处，书写新的国际化叙事：一方面，借贸易"东 风"，人民币在国际贸易融资、结算中迅猛发展；另一方面，在顶层设计的政策推动下，资本项目开放 有望成为人民币国际化进阶的关键突破，为全球金融格局多元化注入崭新动力。 2025年4月，国际金融市场见证了罕见的一幕：受"对等关税"政策影响，全球贸易紧张局势急剧升级， 在恐慌情绪主导下，美国金融市场上演股债汇"三杀"局面。 美东时间4月3日至4日，美股三大指数接连重挫，道指、纳指、标普500指数两个交易日内分别累计下跌 9.26%、11.44%和10.53%。美债市场也面临恐慌性抛售，10年期美债收益率在4月7日当周累计上涨48个 基点至4.5%附近，30年期美债收益率行至5%关口附近。美元指数震荡下跌，全月累计 ...

【要闻聚焦】 今日日本央行将基准利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，符合市场预期。利率水平创30年来新高，这也是2025年 1月以后，日本央行11个月来再次进行加息。日本央行重启加息预期或导致过去"日元套利交易"出现平 仓潮，给全球风险资产特别是美元资产构成较大压力。 周五(12月19日)亚洲时段，现货白银吸引了一些逢低买盘，交投于64.00美元中部附近，欧市盘中，现货 白银回升至接近66.00美元的整数关口，价格小幅上涨，银价正逼近66.20美元/盎司水平。今晚关注美国 12月一年期通胀率预期终值。 17:00欧元区10月季调后经常帐 19:00英国12月CBI零售销售差值 21:30加拿大10月零售销售月率 决议声明中"若经济前景无重大异动，预计将进一步推进加息"的表述，直接引发国债市场抛售浪潮，推 动收益率快速上行。 日本央行降息后，日本10年期国债收益率没有利好出尽下跌，反而升破2%重要关口，预示着大的风波 还在后头，是日本货币政策转向、通胀压力与市场预期共振的结果，其影响正从日本本土向全球市场层 层传导。 牛津经济研究院日本经济主管永井茂人在决议前便指出，此次加息后，日本央行大概率在2026年年中再 次 ...

2026年的四大系统性变化 王淦 中信证券研究部 大类资产配置分析师 2025年11月11日 请务必阅读末页的免责条款和声明 核心结论 2026年大类资产配置策略 变化之一：经济周期的新阶段。需求端对经济的拖累正在减弱，宏观环境"否极泰来"的迹象越发明晰。M1和PPI等经济周期的领先指标 指向经济周期已经进入为反弹蓄力的最后阶段。不过，也需注意到经济周期的修复并非一簇而就，资产负债表、外需、就业预期和政策节 奏都将是影响修复节奏的重要因素。 变化之二：PPI从负增长到正增长。在货币活跃程度已经先行回暖、油价有望出现反弹、翘尾因素减弱等多重因素的共同作用下，2026年 PPI单月同比增速有望回升并走出负增长区间。 变化之三：潜在的美联储降息周期拐点。考虑到劳动力市场的恶化对美联储货币政策的减弱作用应该是边际减弱的，且美国通胀黏性并未 实际减弱，美联储2026年存在结束降息周期的可能性。 变化之四：中国资产的收益波动特征。中国债券低波动的特征可能还将延续，但在利率相比GDP偏低、债市收益相比利率偏高的环境下， 债市预期收益可能会稳定在偏低的水平；股票则需关注估值高位后的波动放大趋势。 大类资产配置策略 A股：估值 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent statements from multiple Federal Reserve officials indicate a collective hawkish stance, opposing the idea of a rate cut in December, which has created uncertainty in the market regarding interest rate expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Dallas Fed President Logan stated that he opposes a December rate cut unless there is clear evidence of faster inflation decline [3]. - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expressed strong opposition to the October rate cut, citing unexpected economic resilience [3]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly suggested it is too early to determine if a December rate cut is warranted, reflecting a cautious approach among Fed officials [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Inflation remains stubbornly high at around 3%, significantly above the Fed's target of 2%, prompting concerns about its impact on low- and middle-income households [3]. - Economic performance has been stronger than anticipated, with stable corporate earnings and a job market that, while slowing, has not collapsed [3]. - Fed Governor Musalem indicated that the economy might rebound next year, suggesting that aggressive monetary policy is unnecessary at this time [3]. Group 3: Implications for Investors - The delay in rate cuts is likely to put short-term pressure on dollar assets, with high-valuation sectors like technology potentially facing continued volatility [3]. - Investors are advised to focus on "anti-inflation" assets such as gold, energy stocks, and resource-related investments, which tend to perform well in high-interest rate environments [3]. - Maintaining cash reserves is recommended, as the Fed's inaction may lead to increased market volatility, providing opportunities to acquire undervalued assets [3]. Group 4: Historical Context - Historical patterns suggest that the Fed's periods of indecision often present opportunities to invest in gold, as seen during the transitions in leadership under Greenspan in 1987 and Bernanke in 2008 [4]. - Patience is emphasized as a strategy for long-term investors, waiting for the market to fully abandon hopes of rate cuts before making significant investments [4].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points is seen as a "risk management" move rather than a direct response to external pressures, with the Fed emphasizing its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [2][3] - The internal unity of the Federal Reserve is highlighted by the fact that only one member voted against the rate cut, indicating a commitment to established policy paths despite external pressures from political figures [3] - Long-term challenges to the dollar's credibility are identified, including potential conflicts between inflation control and employment maximization, as well as threats to the Fed's independence due to political interference [4][5] Group 2: Global Monetary Order Transformation - The current global monetary order is undergoing significant changes, with the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency being questioned due to aggressive trade policies and interventions by the Trump administration [6][7] - The rise in gold prices and increased gold purchases by emerging markets signal a shift towards diversifying reserves away from the dollar, reflecting a broader trend of "de-dollarization" [6][12] - The potential for a collective loss of confidence in the dollar by U.S. allies could mark a critical point in the transformation of the global monetary system [7] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in China - The recent rebound in the A-share market is driven by institutional investors, suggesting a shift in asset allocation from real estate to equities, influenced by policies aimed at improving the capital market environment [20][21] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is noted, where lower deposit rates encourage individuals to seek higher returns in the stock market, although this trend is still developing [22][21] - Long-term, equity assets are expected to become a significant component of wealth diversification for Chinese residents, especially as the real estate market adjusts [21][23] Group 4: Gold and Asset Allocation - The increasing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset is noted, with significant price increases observed, although short-term volatility may present challenges [24] - The potential for gold to serve as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation is emphasized, alongside the need for individuals to balance their asset allocations between equities and gold based on risk tolerance [24][25] - The ongoing transformation of the global economic landscape presents opportunities for foreign investment in Chinese assets, particularly in the context of the country's economic transition and reforms [25]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, while signaling a cautious approach towards future rate cuts due to economic uncertainties [2][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Current U.S. economic activity is experiencing moderate growth, with a slight increase in unemployment and inflation levels remaining high despite a decrease from earlier in the year [4][6]. - The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, lower than the expected 3.1%, indicating a mixed inflation outlook [6][9]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The decision to cut rates was supported by 10 out of 12 voting members, indicating some internal disagreement on the extent of the cut [6]. - Future rate adjustments will depend on the latest economic data and the balance of various risks, with the Fed prepared to adjust policies if new risks emerge [4][9]. Group 3: Impact of Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [9][14]. - The Congressional Budget Office warned that the shutdown could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 1 to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter, leading to significant economic losses [9]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The Fed's rate cut is expected to weaken the dollar, potentially leading to a relative appreciation of the Chinese yuan and affecting global capital flows [16][18]. - The cut is likely to lower U.S. Treasury yields, making U.S. dollar-denominated assets less attractive, which could increase the appeal of Chinese assets [16]. Group 5: Future Projections - Analysts predict that the Fed may continue to lower rates until early 2026, but concerns about inflation may limit the extent of future cuts [13][14]. - The Fed's decision to stop balance sheet reduction on December 1 is seen as a move to ease liquidity in the market [11][12].

Core Insights - India is accelerating the repatriation of gold reserves, with approximately 65% now stored domestically, nearly double the level from four years ago [1][3] - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has repatriated about 64 tons of gold in the first half of the fiscal year ending September, increasing the gold's share in foreign exchange reserves to 13.92% from 11.70% in March [3] - The RBI currently holds 880 tons of gold, with 576 tons stored domestically, marking a historical high compared to 38% in September 2022 [3] - The shift in gold storage is largely viewed as a response to the freezing of Russian foreign reserves, prompting countries to reassess the risks of holding sovereign assets abroad [3][5] - India's total foreign exchange reserves reached $702.3 billion as of October 17, sufficient to cover over 11 months of import needs, positioning it as one of Asia's most resilient emerging markets [4] Industry Trends - A global trend of central banks repatriating gold is emerging, driven by geopolitical conflicts and the increasing weaponization of financial sanctions [5][6] - The founder of Pinetree Macro highlighted that in an era where international law is disregarded, repatriating gold is a rational defensive action [5] - Serbia's central bank has also announced the return of all its gold reserves, emphasizing security over liquidity during crises [6] - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 68% of central banks plan to keep their gold reserves domestically, up from 50% in 2020, reflecting a growing trend of gold repatriation as a strategy to mitigate geopolitical financial risks [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since late last year, signaling a shift in monetary policy [1][2] - The U.S. stock market reached new highs following the rate cut, but recent volatility has increased, with significant declines in major indices such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 [1][3] - Timothy Taylor suggests that the Fed may adopt a "small step" rate cut strategy to alleviate economic downward pressure while avoiding severe market fluctuations [1][3] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. economic conditions report is crucial for understanding the real economic situation amid government shutdowns and halted economic data releases [2] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is influenced by the interplay between declining inflation and slowing economic growth, with inflation dropping from 8% in 2022 to around 3% currently [2][3] - Taylor predicts a gradual approach to future rate cuts, likely in increments of 25 basis points, to prevent market volatility and allow the economy to adjust [3][4] Group 3 - Despite the rate cuts, concerns about the economic fundamentals and policy environment remain, as weakening corporate earnings expectations and increased policy uncertainty could offset the positive effects of rate cuts [4][5] - Market expectations indicate a high probability of further rate cuts, with a 98.3% chance of a cut in October and a 91.7% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [4] Group 4 - The Fed's policy goals may not align with those of the government, as political pressure for rate cuts exists, but the Fed maintains its independence to ensure market trust [5][6] - The concept of the "neutral interest rate" is highlighted, with the current rates still above neutral levels, indicating a gradual approach towards this target [6] Group 5 - Rate cuts are generally seen as beneficial for the stock market, as they lower bond yields and enhance the attractiveness of equity assets, while also reducing borrowing costs for consumers and businesses [7] - However, the decline in dollar-denominated investment returns has led to a sense of loss among investors, emphasizing the importance of managing expectations regarding actual versus anticipated returns [7][8] - Investors are advised to reassess their dollar asset allocations within a comprehensive "return-risk" framework, considering multiple factors such as interest rates, exchange rates, and domestic rate environments [7][8]