Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber futures market is experiencing a weak and fluctuating trend, with a notable lack of core positive factors driving the market, leading to a cautious sentiment among investors [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Recent natural rubber futures prices have shown a weak oscillation, with the spot market also declining; the price of Yunnan's full latex in the Shanghai market has dropped to 14,250 yuan/ton [1] - After the National Day holiday, the overall capital flow in the rubber futures market has been positive, but macro risk events continue to evolve, keeping the market under pressure [1] - The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China reached 742,000 tons in September 2025, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 20.85% and 11.75% respectively, maintaining a high import level [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of new rubber has been slow due to adverse weather conditions, but the situation is expected to improve as the typhoon season ends and rainfall decreases in Southeast Asia, facilitating normal harvesting [1][3] - The tire market, a major downstream sector for natural rubber, is expected to weaken post-holiday, with domestic demand being sluggish while exports remain strong due to previous anti-dumping measures from the EU [2] - ANRPC forecasts a slight decline in global natural rubber production by 0.03% to 8.856 million tons for the first eight months of 2025, with consumption expected to drop by 0.6% to 10.146 million tons [3] Group 3: Price Outlook - The current low valuation of natural rubber and ongoing warehouse receipt cancellations suggest limited downward price movement, despite accelerated supply release [3] - The World Meteorological Organization has indicated a potential return of the La Niña phenomenon, which could lead to weather disruptions in Q4, potentially supporting a rebound in rubber prices if production decreases occur [3]