投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-3-3 原油暴涨，植物油震荡偏强 油脂：原油暴涨，油脂震荡偏强 蛋白粕：双粕短期有技术调整压力 玉米：情绪升温，期现共振上行 生猪：供强需弱，猪价下跌 天然橡胶：跟随情绪走高，关注前高压力 合成橡胶：板块大涨带动冲高 棉花：进入回调整理阶段 白糖：糖价短期或小幅反弹，但中长期维持震荡偏弱预期 纸浆：现货表现不强，纸浆期货偏弱 双胶纸：节后需求暂无启动，双胶纸震荡运行 原木：购销清淡，窄幅震荡 【异动品种】 油脂观点：原油暴涨，植物油震荡偏强 逻辑：宏观层面：中东局势动荡，美国和以色列对伊朗的军事打击持续， 市场关注霍尔木兹海峡的通航情况，将对全球海上石油贸易带来较大不确 定性，原油价格短期出现大幅上涨，未来仍需关注中东战乱持续时间，以 及对原油运输带来的的影响程度。油脂期货方面，美豆油受到原油飙升以 及生物柴油政策预期利好支撑走势偏强，同时注意价格已经涨幅较大，注 意支撑因素消化后，或者原油滞涨回落，导致美豆油可能出现高位调整风 险。棕榈油：马来西亚南部棕果厂商公会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2月1- 25日马来西亚棕榈油产量 ...

jis 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/3/3 | 品种 | 类别 | 指标 | 1/30 | 2/25 | 2/26 | 2/27 | 3/2 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR主力合约收盘价 | 13390 | 13045 | 12700 | 12630 | 13465 | 835 | 420 | | | | 持仓量 | 53381 | 10540 | 6943 | 44752 | 39382 | -5367 | 28845 | | | 常可 | 成交量 | 672720 | 98487 | 52119 | 137398 | 286143 | 148745 | 187656 | | | | 仓単数量 | 28320 | 39870 | 39870 | 40870 | 40870 | 0 | 1000 | | | | 虚实比 | 9.42 | 1.32 | 0.87 | 5.47 | 4.82 | -1 | 3 | | | | 顺丁基差 | -440 | -24 ...

BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力 05 合约报收 12780 点，上涨+115 点或 +0.91%。截至前日 18 时，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收 12500 元/吨，山东民营顺 丁报收 12100-12200 元/吨，华东市场扬子石化顺丁报收 12500 元/吨，华南地区 茂名石化顺丁报收 12500-12600 元/吨。山东地区抚顺石化丁苯 1502 报收 12700 元/吨。山东地区丁二烯报收 10150-10450 元/吨。 RU/NR 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 05 合约报收 16990 点，下跌-165 点或- 0.96%。截至前日 12 时，销地 WF 报收 16850-16900 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 17000-17100 元/吨。NR 主力 05 合约报收 13735 点，下跌-125 点或-0.90%；新 加坡 TF 主力 05 合约报收 198.9 点，下跌-1.5 点或-0.75%。截至前日 18 时，泰 标近港船货报收 2055-2070 美元/吨，泰混近港船货报收 2055-2070 美元/吨，人 民币混合胶现货报收 15840-15860 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 BR 日 ...

7200 ono 500 2000 400 1500 300 IAN 1000 200 500 100 0 -100 8/1 7/1 10/1 \ 111 12/1-h 5/1 9/1 -500 -200 -1000 -300 -1500 -400 2023 -2025 -2023 -2024 2024 - 2025 -2026 2026 顺丁出口利润(东南亚) BR现货加工利润 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 11/1 12/1 10/1 9/1 9/1/V 11/1 V 12/1 10/1 2/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 3/1 4/1 -1000 -1000 -2000 -2000 -2021 -2022 2025 =2023 -2024 ·2026 -2021 -2022 2024 ·2026 -2023 2025 RU-BR NR-BR 6000 4000 3000 5000 2000 4000 1000 3000 0 2000 7/1 9/1 5/1 10/1 3/1 4/1 8/1 12/1 6/1 AN ...

7200 ono 500 2000 400 1500 300 IN 1000 200 500 100 0 -100 8/1 7/1 10/1 \ 111 12/1-h 5/1 9/1 -500 -200 -1000 -300 -1500 -400 2023 -2025 -2023 -2024 2024 - 2025 -2026 2026 顺丁出口利润(东南亚) BR现货加工利润 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 11/1 12/1 10/1 9/1 9/1/V 11/1 V 12/1 10/1 2/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 3/1 4/1 -1000 -1000 -2000 -2000 -2021 -2022 2025 =2023 -2024 ·2026 -2021 -2022 -2023 2024 ·2026 2025 RU-BR NR-BR 6000 4000 3000 5000 2000 4000 1000 3000 An 0 2000 7/1 9/1 5/1 10/1 3/1 4/1 8/1 12/1 6/1 a ...

jis 加安期货 合成橡胶早报 数据来源: Mysteel、Wind 免责 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内容的客观, 公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的推确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提 供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成时您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交易后票、凡据此入市者，我 司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突，未经我司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、 行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资 料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 研究中心能化团队 2026/2/13 | 品种 | 类別 | 指标 | 1/14 | 2/6 | 2/10 | 2/11 | 2/12 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural sector showed a volatile trend before the Spring Festival, with different trends and influencing factors for each sub - industry [1] - Different agricultural products have different outlooks, such as some are expected to oscillate, some are expected to be weak, and some are expected to strengthen [1][2][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Futures prices declined due to light pre - holiday spot trading and capital flight. Supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is ample. Palm oil is about to enter the destocking stage. Demand depends on biodiesel policies and export performance. It is recommended to consider buying hedging at low callback levels [1][5][6] - **Protein Meal**: International soybean prices are affected by export expectations and South American weather, and are operating in the range of 1130 - 1160. Domestic soybean meal shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. After the festival, prices are expected to be weak. It is not recommended to chase up prices before the festival [7] - **Corn**: Affected by industry news and sentiment, futures are strongly volatile. After the festival, focus on traders' delivery and inventory replenishment rhythms [9] - **Pigs**: Supply is abundant, and prices are expected to be weak before and after the Spring Festival. The industry is recommended to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year, and prices may pick up in the second half of the year [10] - **Natural Rubber**: The price fluctuates slowly before the festival, maintaining an upward trend. The current trading logic is mainly macro - influenced, and the fundamentals are relatively weak but the expectations are good. The market is expected to remain volatile [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR market maintains a high - level range - bound pattern. The mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium term [15] - **Cotton**: The fundamentals have not changed much. The price has rebounded slightly. After the festival, with the arrival of the peak demand season, the price may strengthen. In the long - term, it is expected to be volatile and strong [16] - **Sugar**: In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be volatile and weak due to the expected global supply surplus in the new sugar - making season [17] - **Pulp**: The spot price is almost stagnant, and the futures fluctuate independently. The supply - demand is weak before the festival and is expected to improve after the festival. The futures are expected to be volatile [18] - **Double - Glue Paper**: The market is winding down at the end of the year, and the price rebounds with reduced positions. Before the festival, the trading is weak, and it is expected to be stable in the short - term and volatile and weak in the range [19] - **Logs**: The pre - holiday trading is basically stagnant. The price is expected to remain range - bound in the short - term, and there is a risk of weakening in the medium - term without new positive factors [21] 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring - **Oils and Fats**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Protein Meal**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Corn and Starch**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Pigs**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Sugar**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Pulp and Double - Glue Paper**: Not provided with specific data analysis content - **Logs**: Not provided with specific data analysis content 3.3. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of CITIC Futures commodities all showed an upward trend on February 12, 2026. For example, the comprehensive index increased by 0.49%, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.53%, the industrial products index increased by 0.42%, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.29%. The agricultural product index increased by 0.44% on that day, with a 0.56% increase in the past 5 days, a - 0.71% change in the past month, and a 0.20% increase since the beginning of the year [182][183]

l js 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/2/12 | 品种 | 类别 | 指标 | 1/13 | 2/5 | 2/9 | 2/10 | 2/11 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR主力合约收盘价 | 12000 | 12855 | 12810 | 12860 | 13020 | 160 | 165 | | | | 持つ量 | 95318 | 33340 | 27608 | 25458 | 24037 | -1421 | -9303 | | | 需可 | 成交量 | 130171 | 311702 | 174314 | 195331 | 198743 | 3412 | -112959 | | | | 仓単数量 | 26330 | 29170 | 32270 | 34640 | 36910 | 2270 | 7740 | | | | 虚实比 | 18.10 | 5.71 | 4.28 | 3.67 | 3.26 | 0 | -2 | | | | 顺丁基差 | -10 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hai'an Group experienced a decline in stock price and trading volume, with a net financing buy of 998,200 yuan on February 10, 2023 [1] - On February 10, 2023, Hai'an Group's stock fell by 1.17%, with a trading volume of 168 million yuan, and the total margin balance reached 102 million yuan, accounting for 3.74% of the circulating market value [1] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of giant all-steel engineering radial tires, with its main business revenue composition being 69.51% from all-steel giant tire sales, 25.77% from mining tire operation management, and 4.71% from other sources [1] Group 2 - As of November 25, 2023, the number of shareholders in Hai'an Group increased to 66,000, reflecting a significant rise of 244,185.19% [2] - For the period from January to September 2023, Hai'an Group reported a revenue of 1.619 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 462 million yuan, down 7.04% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, Hai'an Group has distributed a total of 372 million yuan in dividends [2]

Core Viewpoint - In January, Hunan Petrochemical's rubber department achieved a record high daily production of SEBS (Hydrogenated Styrene-Ethylene-Butylene-Styrene) ES series shoe materials, increasing by 3.2 percentage points from previous records [1] Production Optimization - The SEBS team addressed production bottlenecks by optimizing raw material control, production tracking, and finished product inspection processes [1] - Technical modifications were implemented to enhance production efficiency, particularly addressing the high viscosity and tendency to clump of the product [1] Quality Control Measures - The polymerization process was precisely adjusted for feed speed, ensuring stable product quality through real-time monitoring of microstructure [1] - A strengthened inspection mechanism was established, with hourly checks on output to ensure efficient collaboration between different roles [1] Production Strategy - A new production model was adopted, combining full-load packaging during night shifts with online packing during day shifts, leading to increased output [1] - Customized production and sales of the ES series shoe materials are expected to support downstream clients in producing a cushioning series of sports shoes, with projected sales exceeding 4 million pairs by 2025 [1]