Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: April 1, 2026 [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [8] Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the synthetic rubber market, including price trends, trading volume, inventory, and profit margins of BR and BD, providing data support for market participants to understand the market situation [4] Grouped Key Points BR Market - **Price and Trading Metrics**: The BR主力合约收盘价 was 17,350 on March 31, down 375 from the previous day and up 550 from the previous week. The持仓量 was 72,237, down 14,968 from the previous day and 2,428 from the previous week. The成交量 was 683,189, down 117,690 from the previous day and up 85,438 from the previous week [4] - **Inventory and Basis**: The仓単数量 was 48,740, down 60 from the previous day and up 890 from the previous week. The虚实比 was 7.41, down 2 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week. The顺丁基差 was 650, up 375 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week. The丁苯基差 was 850, up 175 from the previous day and down 150 from the previous week [4] - **Spread and Inter - Variety Metrics**: The 05 - 06 spread was 195, with a change of -120 from the previous week. The 06 - 07 spread was 290, with a change of 40 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was -1,005, up 180 from the previous day and down 430 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was -3,745, up 135 from the previous day and down 255 from the previous week [4] - **Spot Market and Profits**: The山东市场价 was 18,000, unchanged from the previous day and up 700 from the previous week. The传化市场价 was 17,700, down 350 from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week. The齐鲁出厂价 was 19,000, up 500 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week. The CFR东北亚 was 2,350, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The CFR东南亚 was 2,600, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The现货加工利润 was -2,254, up 408 from the previous day and 1,159 from the previous week. The进口利润 was -850, unchanged from the previous day and with a change of -1,579 from the previous week. The出口利润 was 1,677, unchanged from the previous day and down 568 from the previous week [4] BD Market - **Spot Market and Profits**: The山东市场价 was 17,700, down 400 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week. The江苏市场价 was 17,850, down 250 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week. The扬子出厂价 was 18,200, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week. The CFR中国 was 2,580, unchanged from the previous day and up 280 from the previous week. The乙烯裂解利润 was -8 on March 30, and data for March 31 was not available. The碳四抽提利润 on March 27 was 6,749, and data for March 31 was not available. The进口利润 was -2,451, down 250 from the previous day and 2,579 from the previous week. The出口利润 was 1,601, up 1,946 from the previous day and 9,309 from the previous week. The丁苯生产利润 on March 27 was 88, and data for March 31 was not available. The ABS生产利润 on March 24 was -1,659, and data for March 31 was not available. The SBS生产利润 on March 27 was -1,535, and data for March 31 was not available [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Synthetic Rubber Morning Report, issued by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on March 30, 2026 [2] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures Market - On March 26, the closing price of the BR main contract was 17,975, with a daily change of 255 and a weekly change of 1,990. The trading volume was 1,081,955, with a daily increase of 191,851 and a weekly increase of 711,504. The open interest was 116,947, up 1,942 from the previous day and 35,826 from the previous week. The warrant quantity was 48,550, an increase of 640 from the previous day and 1,270 from the previous week. The long - short ratio was 12.04, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3 [3] Basis and Spread - The basis of BR was -75, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of 310. The 05 - 06 spread was 290, down 215 from the previous day. The 06 - 07 spread was 285, with no daily change. The RU - BR spread was -1,515, down 225 from the previous day and 1,530 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was -4,340, down 182 from the previous day and 1,220 from the previous week [3] Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 17,900, up 250 from the previous day and 2,300 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 18,000, up 400 from the previous day and 2,400 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 18,500, with no daily change and an increase of 2,200 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 2,350, with no daily change and an increase of 250 from the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 2,600, with no daily change and an increase of 325 from the previous week [3] Profit - The spot processing profit was -2,966, down 5 from the previous day and 97 from the previous week. The import profit was -922, up 257 from the previous day and 348 from the previous week. The export profit was 1,738, down 224 from the previous day and up 244 from the previous week [3] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 18,300, up 250 from the previous day and 2,350 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 18,300, down 250 from the previous day and up 2,250 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 18,000, with no daily change and an increase of 2,000 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 2,350 (data for March 26 is N/A) [3] Profit - The ethylene cracking profit was 127 (data for March 26 is N/A). The carbon - four extraction profit was 7,881 (data for March 26 is N/A). The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 6,420, down 250 from the previous day and up 1,340 from the previous week. The import profit was 66 (data for March 26 is N/A). The export profit was -543, up 557 from the previous day and 5,256 from the previous week [3] Group 4: Other Product Profit Data - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 275, with no daily change and an increase of 875 from the previous week. The ABS production profit was -1,497, down 104 from the previous day and 1,258 from the previous week. The SBS production profit was -2,410, with no daily change and a decrease of 690 from the previous week [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran has led to a significant increase in the prices of oil and chemical products. Butadiene and butadiene rubber have risen sharply due to increased costs. Attention should be paid to the spot prices of SC and Oman crude oil, while Brent and WTI crude oil have weak reference value. Asian supply is mainly pegged to the spot price of Oman crude oil, and the current spot premium is high [11]. - Currently, the increase in crude oil prices is much greater than that of downstream products. Downstream industries, especially those in Japan and South Korea, have gradually reduced their production loads, leading to a decrease in supply. As a result, crude oil prices will gradually be transmitted to downstream products, including a significant catch - up increase in butadiene rubber [11]. - The logic behind butadiene rubber is that Japan and South Korea prioritize (finished) oil over chemicals. Although demand is also suppressed by high oil prices, Asian refineries have reduced their operating rates due to a lack of raw materials or losses. This has led to a sharp contraction in the supply of intermediate chemicals from refineries and a catch - up increase in prices. The supply of butadiene has decreased significantly. China has reduced its imports of butadiene from South Korea, while South Korea and Japan have increased their exports, driving up the price of butadiene and, in turn, butadiene rubber [11]. - The operating rates of butadiene refineries and downstream butadiene rubber factories are decreasing, while the operating rate of downstream tire factories fluctuates slightly, and raw material procurement is on the sidelines. Macro - funds' sentiment temporarily dominates the market. It is expected that there will be significant short - term fluctuations, and the market will later return to being driven by fundamentals [11]. - The fundamentals of natural rubber suggest that it is prone to decline and difficult to rise after the winter storage period in the first half of the year. A sharp increase in crude oil prices will lead to a significant deterioration in demand expectations. However, the expectation of capital allocation to commodities limits the downside space. The market's expectation of state - reserve purchases has increased the upside potential of RU [11]. - RU as a whole fluctuates widely within a range, and flexible responses and risk control are recommended. If the negotiation between the US, Israel, and Iran is successful, the prices of oil and chemical products may fall rapidly. Butadiene rubber will decline due to the rapid drop in butadiene costs, driving down RU and NR rapidly. If the cost drops sharply and the refining profit improves, and mid - stream refineries resume production and increase their operating rates, it will lead to a rapid decline in BR, driving down RU and NR rapidly. Buying put options on BR can be considered to hedge against the risk of price decline [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - The conflict between the US and Iran has caused significant price increases in oil and chemical products. Butadiene and butadiene rubber have risen due to cost increases. Attention should be paid to the spot prices of SC and Oman crude oil [11]. - The operating rates of butadiene refineries and downstream butadiene rubber factories are decreasing, while the operating rate of downstream tire factories fluctuates slightly. Macro - funds' sentiment temporarily dominates the market [11]. - It is expected that there will be significant short - term fluctuations, and the market will later return to being driven by fundamentals. The fundamentals of natural rubber suggest it is prone to decline after the winter storage period in the first half of the year. The expectation of state - reserve purchases has increased the upside potential of RU [11]. - If the negotiation between the US, Israel, and Iran is successful, the prices of oil and chemical products may fall rapidly. Buying put options on BR can be considered to hedge against the risk of price decline [13]. - The industry's demand is normal, with the full - steel tire factory operating rate at 70.75% (0.03%). After the Spring Festival holiday, the resumption of work has returned to normal. The inventory in the exchange and Qingdao is 88.63 (0.79) million tons. The supply in Hainan and Yunnan is expected to start tapping in late March, while most of Thailand has stopped tapping. There are still differences in the medium - term supply expectations, with some expecting a slight fluctuation and others expecting an increase of 15 - 25 million tons [16]. - The market expects subsequent state - reserve purchase plans. The market's long - position logic is mainly based on macro - expectations and positive expectations for China's policies, while the short - position logic is mainly due to the current dull demand and the expectation of poor demand caused by tariff policies. Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire have increased their rubber exports [16]. - The rubber price is significantly affected by macro - funds in the short term, and its direction is unclear. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for band - trading [16]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices prone to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the decline occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectations and was below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [26]. - The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while the demand in China is stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [32][35]. - The comparison between rubber and other commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil, rebar, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, shows no special values or points of concern [43][47][51]. 3.3 Profits and Ratios - The comparison between rubber and other commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil, rebar, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, shows no special values or points of concern [43][47][51]. 3.4 Cost Side - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is generally considered to be between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [56]. - The maintenance cost of rubber is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, rubber farmers are more motivated to maintain, resulting in higher costs; when the price is low, they maintain less, and the cost decreases. In the first half of 2024, rubber farmers were highly motivated [56]. 3.5 Demand Side - The operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tire factories show no special values or points of concern [62]. - The business climate of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and it is expected to gradually recover in the later stage, which will affect the supporting tires. The sales volume of commercial vehicles corresponds to the domestic supporting demand [66]. - The export of truck tires is booming, but it is expected to decline slightly in the later stage, corresponding to the monthly export value of new pneumatic rubber tires for passenger cars or freight motor vehicles [69]. 3.6 Supply Side - The rubber import data is mainly updated until December 2021, and the import data after the 2020 pandemic is no longer updated, reducing the analyzability of imports [74]. - The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, with no special values or points of concern [78][82][86][90][94][98][102][106][110]. - In January 2026, the rubber production was 1,115,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.67% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The cumulative production was 1,116,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.67%. The export was 834,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.11% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.07%. The cumulative export was 834,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.11%. The consumption was 931,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.57%. The cumulative consumption was 932,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.74% [114][115].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market is affected by multiple factors including supply - demand dynamics, weather conditions, and economic indicators. There are continuous fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, and investment strategies vary according to different market situations [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **RU Natural Rubber**: Prices of RU主力05合约 fluctuated between 16010 - 17315 points from February 24 to March 27, 2026. The prices of different types of natural rubber such as WF, Vietnam 3L, Thai smoked sheets, and origin standard - two also showed certain ranges of fluctuations [1][20][24] - **NR 20 - number Rubber**: NR主力05合约 prices fluctuated between 12845 - 13865 points during the same period. The prices of related products like smoked sheet rubber cargo, Thai standard near - port cargo, etc. also had corresponding changes [1][20][24] - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: BR主力05合约 prices fluctuated between 12590 - 18425 points. The prices of butadiene rubber in different regions such as Shandong and East China also showed varying trends [1][2][20] Important Information - **Export Data**: In the first two months of 2026, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased by 11% year - on - year, while mixed rubber exports increased by 20%. Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased by 15% in the first two months of 2026, and mixed rubber exports increased by 6% [2][7] - **Industry News**: The Indian natural rubber demand is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2026. The global natural rubber market is expected to have a structural shortage for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. The US tire total shipments are expected to increase by 0.7% in 2026 [11][107][70] Logical Analysis - **Economic Indicators**: Factors such as the US auto and parts new order amount, domestic new pneumatic rubber tire export amount, and EuroCoin index have different impacts on the rubber market. For example, in January 2026, the US auto and parts new order amount increased by 13.1% year - on - year, which was positive for commodities [3] - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory levels of RU and NR contracts, as well as the production and inventory of tires, are important factors affecting the market. For example, in March 2026, the total inventory inside and outside Qingdao Bonded Area increased to 68.12 tons, which was positive for Thai standard rubber [7] - **Weather and Other Factors**: Weather conditions such as rainfall in Thailand and the El Nino index also have an impact on the rubber market. For example, from March 2026, the weighted average daily rainfall of Thai natural rubber production decreased to 0.76mm/day, which was negative for Thai standard rubber [7] Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies mainly include holding long positions, short positions, or waiting and seeing. For example, on March 27, 2026, for the RU主力05合约, long positions were held with a stop - loss set at 16220 points [3] - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Strategies mainly involve holding certain spreads and setting stop - loss levels. For example, on March 27, 2026, the spread of NR2605 - RU2605 (1 lot to 1 lot) was - 2815 points and was held with a stop - loss set at - 2865 points [3] - **Options**: Most of the time, the strategy is to wait and see [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Crude oil and butadiene supplies are tight, raw material prices have risen significantly, and the production losses of butadiene rubber have deepened, leading to some plants reducing production or shutting down. The Zhejiang Transfar butadiene rubber plant is undergoing scheduled maintenance, resulting in a decline in supply. It is expected that the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises will continue to decrease [2]. - The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises rebounded slightly last week. The semi - steel tire enterprises are focused on fulfilling foreign trade orders, with tight domestic sales supply, and the capacity utilization rate remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has increased slightly. The price increase has led to concentrated shipments and obvious shortages, supporting the overall capacity utilization rate. At the end of the quarter, the operating rates of some enterprises are expected to remain high, but there may be flexible production scheduling adjustments [2]. - Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the short - term synthetic rubber futures prices are expected to fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 17,975 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 255 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 116,947, with a week - on - week increase of 1,942 [2]. - The synthetic rubber 5 - 6 spread is 290 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 215 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 24,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 670 tons [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 17,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 350 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 17,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 350 yuan/ton [2]. - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 17,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 17,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 345 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 102.22 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.27 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 90.32 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.03 US dollars/barrel [2]. - Naphtha CFR Japan is 997.75 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 90.75 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 1400 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 US dollars/ton [2]. - The CFR China price of butadiene is 2350 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 18,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.71%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.99 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 27,600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.52 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 140,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 65.58%, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.4 percentage points [2]. - The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 2500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 204 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 42,600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,800 tons [2]. - The weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 34,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,350 tons; the weekly trader inventory of butadiene rubber is 8,610 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 470 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 41.09 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 44.59 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.75 days [2]. - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a week - on - week increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In February 2026, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 75,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy sources), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 units in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 25, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.58% [2].

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" and was released on March 26, 2026, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2][3] 2. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data 2.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the BR main contract on March 25 was 17,720, with a daily change of 920 and a weekly change of 2,460 [4] - The open interest was 115,005, up 40,340 from the previous day and 48,631 from the previous week [4] - The trading volume was 890,104, an increase of 292,353 from the previous day and 617,282 from the previous week [4] - The warrant quantity was 47,910, up 60 from the previous day and 260 from the previous week [4] - The long - short ratio was 12.00, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 5 [4] 2.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber was - 320, with a daily change of - 820 and a weekly change of - 360 [4] - The basis of styrene - butadiene rubber was 80, with a daily change of - 920 and a weekly change of - 360 [4] - The spread between 05 - 06 contracts was 300, with a daily change of 190 [4] - The spread between 06 - 07 contracts was 285, with a daily change of 35 and a weekly change of 305 [4] - The spread between RU - BR was - 1,290, with a daily change of - 715 and a weekly change of - 2,430 [4] - The spread between NR - BR was - 4,155, with a daily change of - 665 and a weekly change of - 2,000 [4] 2.3 Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 17,400, up 100 from the previous day and 2,100 from the previous week [4] - The Transfar market price was 17,400, unchanged from the previous day and up 2,100 from the previous week [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 18,500, unchanged from the previous day and up 2,700 from the previous week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia was 2,350, unchanged from the previous day and up 250 from the previous week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia was 2,600, unchanged from the previous day and up 325 from the previous week [4] 2.4 Profit - The spot processing profit was - 3,211, up 202 from the previous day and down 1,215 from the previous week [4] - The import profit was - 1,398, up 109 from the previous day and up 105 from the previous week [4] - The export profit was 2,151, with a daily change of - 95 and a weekly change of 457 [4] 3. BD (Butadiene) Data 3.1 Spot Market - The Shandong market price on March 25 was 18,050, down 100 from the previous day and up 3,250 from the previous week [4] - The Jiangsu market price was 18,550, up 350 from the previous day and up 3,300 from the previous week [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 18,000, unchanged from the previous day and up 2,800 from the previous week [4] - CFR China was 2,350, up 50 from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week [4] 3.2 Profit - The ethylene cracking profit on March 24 was 73 [4] - The carbon - four extraction profit on March 24 was 7,174 [4] - The price of BD on March 25 was 6,530, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,690 from the previous week [4] - The import profit was 96, down 31 from the previous day and up 918 from the previous week [4] - The export profit was - 1,125, up 861 from the previous day and up 4,045 from the previous week [4] - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 50, unchanged from the previous day and up 438 from the previous week [4]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: March 23, 2026 [3] 2. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Futures Market - BR主力合约收盘价: On March 20, it was 15,985, with a daily change of 445 and a weekly change of 260 [4] - 持仓量: Reached 81,121 on March 20, a daily increase of 17,321 and a weekly increase of 59,428 [4] - 成交量: Hit 370,451 on March 20, a daily increase of 69,263 and a weekly increase of 140,338 [4] - 仓単数量: Stood at 47,280 on March 20, a daily decrease of 340 and a weekly decrease of 130 [4] - 虚实比: Reached 8.58 on March 20, a daily increase of 2 and a weekly increase of 6 [4] Basis/Spread/Inter - variety - 顺丁县差: -382 on March 20, a daily decrease of 245 and a weekly decrease of 160 [4] - 丁苯基差: 15 on March 20, a daily decrease of 245 and a weekly decrease of 360 [4] - 05 - 06: 35 on March 20, a daily increase of 35 and a weekly decrease of 20 [4] - 06 - 07: 130 on March 20, a daily increase of 140 and a weekly increase of 170 [4] - RU - BR: 0 on March 20, a daily decrease of 535 and a weekly decrease of 1025 [4] - NR - BR: -3120 on March 20, a daily decrease of 505 and a weekly decrease of 715 [4] Spot Market - 山东市场价: 15,600 on March 20, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - 传化市场价: 15,600 on March 20, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - 齐鲁出厂价: 16,300 on March 20, a daily increase of 500 and a weekly increase of 500 [4] - CFR东北亚: 2100 on March 20, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 350 [4] - CFR东南亚: 2275 on March 20, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 350 [4] Profit - 现货加工利润: -2869 on March 20, a daily decrease of 769 and a weekly decrease of 716 [4] - 进口利润: -1270 on March 20, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly decrease of 2693 [4] - 出口利润: 1494 on March 20, a daily decrease of 174 and a weekly increase of 2387 [4] 3. BD (Butadiene) Market Data Spot Market - 山东市场价: 15,950 on March 20, a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 800 [4] - 江苏市场价: 16,050 on March 20, a daily increase of 450 and a weekly increase of 400 [4] - 扬子出厂价: 16,000 on March 20, a daily increase of 500 and no weekly change [4] - CFR中国: 2200 on March 20, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 300 [4] Profit - 乙烯裂解利润: -31 on March 19, data for March 20 is N/A [4] - 碳四抽提利润: 4112 on March 19, data for March 20 is N/A [4] - 丁烯氧化脱氢利润: 5080 on March 20, a daily increase of 30 and a weekly decrease of 370 [4] - 进口利润: -1255 on March 20, a daily decrease of 330 and a weekly decrease of 2007 [4] - 出口利润: -451 on March 20, a daily decrease of 392, data for some dates is N/A [4] - 丁苯生产利润: -600 on March 20, a daily increase of 125 and a weekly increase of 388 [4] - ABS生产利润: Data for March 20 is N/A [4] - SBS生产利润: -1370 on March 20, no daily change and a weekly increase of 215 [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: March 20, 2026 [3] Report Core Content BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - The closing price of the BR main contract on March 19 was 15,540, with a daily change of 280 and no weekly change [4]. - The open interest on March 19 was 63,800, a daily decrease of 2,574 and a weekly increase of 39,870 [4]. - The trading volume on March 19 was 301,188, a daily increase of 28,366 and a weekly decrease of 28,350 [4]. - The warrant quantity on March 19 was 47,620, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly increase of 1,290 [4]. - The long - short ratio on March 19 was 6.70, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 4 [4]. Basis and Spread - The butadiene rubber basis on March 19 was - 140, a daily decrease of 180 and no weekly change [4]. - The styrene - butadiene rubber basis on March 19 was 260, a daily decrease of 180 and a weekly decrease of 200 [4]. - The 05 - 06 spread on March 19 was 220, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly increase of 15 [4]. - The 06 - 07 spread on March 19 was - 10, a daily increase of 10 [4]. - The RU - BR spread on March 19 was not fully provided, with a daily decrease of 590 and a weekly decrease of 982 [4]. - The NR - BR spread on March 19 was - 2,615, a daily decrease of 460 and a weekly decrease of 710 [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price on March 19 was 15,400, a daily increase of 100 and no weekly change [4]. - The Transfar market price on March 19 was 15,450, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly decrease of 50 [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price on March 19 was 15,800, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price on March 19 was 2,100, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 350 [4]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price on March 19 was 2,275, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 350 [4]. Profit - The spot processing profit on March 19 was - 2,100, a daily decrease of 104 and a weekly decrease of 153 [4]. - The import profit on March 19 was - 1,470, a daily increase of 33 and a weekly decrease of 2,793 [4]. - The export profit on March 19 was 1,668, a daily decrease of 26 and a weekly increase of 2,474 [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price on March 19 was 15,000, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 150 [4]. - The Jiangsu market price on March 19 was 15,600, a daily increase of 350 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price on March 19 was 15,500, a daily increase of 300 and a weekly decrease of 500 [4]. - The CFR China price on March 19 was 2,100, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 300 [4]. Profit - The ethylene cracking profit on March 17 was 25, and on March 18 was 29, with subsequent data unavailable [4]. - The carbon four extraction profit on March 17 was 4,814, and on March 18 was 4,758, with subsequent data unavailable [4]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on March 19 was 5,050, a daily increase of 210 and a weekly decrease of 80 [4]. - The import profit on March 19 was - 925, a daily decrease of 104 and a weekly decrease of 2,553 [4]. - The export profit on March 19 was - 20, a daily increase of 781, with some data unavailable [4]. - The styrene - butadiene production profit on March 19 was - 725, a daily decrease of 338 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4]. - The ABS production profit on March 19 was - 350, a daily decrease of 335 and a weekly decrease of 846 [4]. - The SBS production profit on March 19 was - 1,370, a daily decrease of 345 and a weekly increase of 380 [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the inventory of production enterprises decreased, and there is still a possibility of further reduction in short - term inventory. The start - up rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly week - on - week. Semi - steel tire enterprises are focusing on fulfilling foreign trade orders, and the tight supply of domestic sales keeps the capacity utilization rate at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly, with concentrated shipments and obvious shortage of goods, supporting the overall capacity utilization rate. At the end of the quarter, the start - up rate is expected to remain high, but individual enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 15,540 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 280 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 63,800, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,574. The 5 - 6 spread of synthetic rubber is 220 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 22,990 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 15,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong and Shanghai is 15,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 15,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 280 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 107.38 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 3.96 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 1,039.25 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7.25 US dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,280 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 2,100 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 US dollars/ton. WTI crude oil is 96.32 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.11 US dollars/barrel; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 14,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, with no change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 72.7%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.58 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 31,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8,100 tons; the start - up rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.52 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 149,900 tons, with an increase of 6,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 79.98%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.64 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 2,296 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 872 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 44,400 tons, with an increase of 1,000 tons. The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 950 tons, and the weekly trader inventory is 9,080 tons, with an increase of 60 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.271 million pieces, with a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.968 million pieces, with an increase of 129,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 43.91 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 43.84 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.74 days. As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 79.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.21%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The double - decline in February 2026 is mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month. As of March 18, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 42,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.10% (0.18 tons). During the period, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was affected by the tight supply and sharp price increase of raw materials, resulting in large losses for production enterprises. Some device loads decreased or were about to be overhauled, leading to a tight supply of salable goods and a decrease in the inventory of sample production enterprises [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: March 19, 2026 [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [8] BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures - Closing price of the BR main contract on March 18 was 15,260, down 270 from the previous day and 355 from the previous week [4] - Open interest on March 18 was 66,374, down 42 from the previous day and up 40,054 from the previous week [4] - Trading volume on March 18 was 272,822, up 8,875 from the previous day and down 1,825 from the previous week [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on March 18 was 47,650, up 490 from the previous day and 1,330 from the previous week [4] - The virtual - real ratio on March 18 was 6.96, with no daily change and an increase of 4 from the previous week [4] - The butadiene rubber basis on March 18 was 40, up 70 from the previous day [4] - The styrene - butadiene rubber basis on March 18 was 440, up 170 from the previous day and 755 from the previous week [4] - The 05 - 06 spread on March 18 was 250, with no daily change and a decrease of 35 from the previous week [4] - The 06 - 07 spread on March 18 was - 20, down 20 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week [4] - The RU - BR spread on March 18 was 1,140, down 130 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week [4] - The NR - BR spread on March 18 was - 2,155, with a change not clearly stated from the previous day and a decrease of 260 from the previous week [4] Spot - Shandong market price on March 18 was 15,300, down 200 from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week [4] - Transfar market price on March 18 was 15,300, down 200 from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on March 18 was 15,800, with no daily change and an increase of 200 from the previous week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on March 18 was 2,100, with no daily change and an increase of 350 from the previous week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on March 18 was 2,275, with no daily change and an increase of 350 from the previous week [4] Profit - Spot processing profit on March 18 was - 1,996, down 149 from the previous day and 108 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on March 18 was - 1,503, down 144 from the previous day and 2,410 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on March 18 was 1,694, up 123 from the previous day and 2,137 from the previous week [4] BD (Butadiene) Spot - Shandong market price on March 18 was 14,800, down 50 from the previous day and up 400 from the previous week [4] - Jiangsu market price on March 18 was 15,250, with no daily change [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on March 18 was 15,200, with no daily change and an increase of 200 from the previous week [4] - CFR China price on March 18 was 2,050, with no daily change and an increase of 250 from the previous week [4] Profit - Ethylene cracking profit data was not available [4] - Carbon four extraction profit on March 17 was 4,814, and data on March 18 was not available [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on March 18 was 4,840, down 210 from the previous day and up 770 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on March 18 was - 821, up 54 from the previous day and down 1,933 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on March 18 was 191, up 1,678 from the previous day and 5,356 from the previous week [4] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on March 18 was - 388, with no daily change and an increase of 38 from the previous week [4] - ABS production profit data was partially not available [4] - SBS production profit on March 18 was - 1,025, with no daily change and a decrease of 155 from the previous week [4]