Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the natural rubber market will maintain a range - bound and volatile trend in the short term. The market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include reduced supply pressure due to the domestic suspension of the rubber - tapping season and signs of macro - economic improvement, while bearish factors involve concerns about the actual improvement in demand and the increasing supply from Southeast Asian regions. Key factors to watch include weather in Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas, domestic tire enterprise operating rates and inventory changes, automobile production and sales data, macro - economic policies, and inventory levels and import volume changes in Qingdao Free Trade Zone [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Daily Market Trend The main contract of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened, then declined horizontally, followed by sideways consolidation and an upward movement. It reached the daily high and then gradually fell, closing at the second - lowest point of the day. The opening price was 16,110 yuan/ton, the highest price was 16,235 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 15,940 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 15,975 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 380,256 lots, and the open interest was 194,674 lots [1]. b. Price and Open Interest Changes The closing price remained the same as the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased by 5,832 lots compared to the previous day [1]. c. Spot Market Situation On January 13, 2026, the market price (tax - included) of Vietnamese 3L natural rubber in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton. The basis between the current futures closing price of 15,975 yuan/ton and the spot price was 125 yuan/ton, with the futures price slightly lower than the spot price [1]. d. Main Influencing Factors - **Demand Side**: The downstream market had weak buying interest, and overall market transactions were sluggish. Although traders' inventory - holding costs supported prices, downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, resulting in a mediocre trading atmosphere [1]. - **Supply Side**: The natural rubber - producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan in China had entered the off - season, significantly reducing the supply pressure of domestic standard rubber. However, Southeast Asia was still in the peak rubber - tapping season [2]. - **Macro - economic Aspect**: In December 2025, China's Manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up from 49.2% in November, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing prosperity [2]. e. Short - term Outlook The short - term natural rubber market is expected to remain range - bound. On the supply side, the domestic off - season has eased supply pressure, but the overall supply is relatively sufficient due to the peak season in Southeast Asian main producing areas. On the demand side, the operating rates of downstream tire enterprises are average, and there is still inventory pressure on both all - steel and semi - steel tires, which restricts the enterprises' intention to replenish inventory [2][3].