2026 年 3 月 5 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | 铜： 16 | | --- | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 28 | 国债： 股指： 上一交易日，股指期货涨跌不一，沪深 300 股指期货（IF）主力合约-1.16%，上 证 50 股指期货（IH）主力-1.33%，中证 500 股指期货（IC）主力合约-0.61%，中证 1000 股指期货（IM）主力合约-0.90%。 当前国内经济保持平稳，但国内宏观经济复苏动能不强，企业盈利增速处在低位。 但是，一 ...

2026年 2 月,上海期货交易所天然橡胶主力合约呈现震荡上行 走势。月初开盘在 16610元/吨, 最低 16515 元/吨, 最高 17370 元/ 吨,月末收盘 17155 元/吨,较上月收盘上涨 840 元/吨。月末持仓 174215 手，较上月末增仓 33980 手。 二、 当月现货市场情况 2月现货市场价格整体呈现上涨趋势。根据现货市场数据、中国 天然橡胶现货领先价格从２月２日的 2323.02 美元/吨上涨至２月 27 日的 2469.42 美元/吨,期间最高价达到 2495.63 美元/吨（2 月 26 日）。20 号胶现货价格也从2月2日的 1951.15 美元/吨上涨至２月 27 日的 2073.48 美元/吨。 成文日期：2026年2月27日 研究员：顾小春（从业资格号：F0269198;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0000164) 天然橡胶期货月报 一、行情走势回顾 三、主要影响因素 供应端因素 季节性减产：2月中下旬,泰国、印尼等主产国逐步进入低产季, 叠加局部降雨影响出胶量,原料产出同比偏低。国内云南、海南产 区处于冬季停割期,国产胶供应断档,市场整体呈现供应偏紧格局。 出口量下降：20 ...

南华浩淞天然橡胶期货气象分析报告 ——整体降水小幅增多，国内产区干旱有所缓解 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年3月2日 一、本周重要气象提示 中长期 气候动态 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO） ：目前Nino3.4指数-0.1（+0.4），弱拉尼娜现象结束，转为中性 状态。根据NOAA预测，有40%以上概率在6-8月期间转为弱厄尔尼诺现象，9-10月概率提升至 60%，且强度可能有所加强（指数>1.0），产区天气扰动或加剧（厄尔尼诺有概率会减少西太平 洋周边产区雨水，提高干旱风险）。 印度洋偶极子（IOD）： DMI指数为0.03，印度洋偶极子环比12月有所减弱，对印尼周边降雨影 响降低。 马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）： 根据BOM监测数据显示，马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）目前于第5阶段 区域，未来一个月主要在西太平洋海域活跃，对印度洋东岸区域（印尼周边）无显著影响。 中国 产区 云南产区：云南产区停割，年初以来降水低于同期水平，局部地区有气象干旱问题，近期分散春 雨改善土壤墒情。今年云 ...

Report Overview - The report provides a weekly overview of futures price and volume data, including closing prices, weekly price changes, 20 - day annualized volatility, volatility changes, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes for various commodity futures and financial futures [2][3] Commodity Futures Precious Metals - Gold closed at 1,147.90 with a 3.41% weekly increase, 72.66% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 0.27% volatility increase; capital decreased by 147.54 [2] - Silver closed at 23,019.00 with a 16.36% weekly increase, 129.12% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 7.64% volatility increase; capital decreased by 11.81 [2] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper closed at 103,920.00 with a 3.27% weekly increase, 44.13% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 0.88% volatility increase; capital decreased by 127.74 [2] - Nickel closed at 141,560.00 with a 4.13% weekly increase, 48.55% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 2.57% volatility increase; capital increased by 12.58 [2] Black Metals - Coke closed at 1,635.50 with a 2.76% weekly decrease, 30.59% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 6.96% volatility increase; capital increased by 3.24 [2] - Coking coal closed at 1,093.50 with a 2.45% weekly decrease, 34.57% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 0.11% volatility decrease; capital increased by 8.34 [2] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil closed at 488.40 with a 6.01% weekly increase, 41.93% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 24.69% volatility increase; capital decreased by 8.46 [2] - Fuel oil closed at 2,987.00 with a 5.18% weekly increase, 38.65% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 2.29% volatility increase; capital decreased by 1.31 [2] Agricultural Products - Cotton closed at 15,395.00 with a 4.44% weekly increase, 18.04% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 35.62% volatility increase; capital decreased by 17.46 [2] - Sugar closed at 5,324.00 with a 2.17% weekly increase, 9.05% 20 - day annualized volatility, and an 8.72% volatility decrease; capital decreased by 6.61 [2] Livestock Products - Live pigs closed at 11,485.00 with a 0.13% weekly decrease, 14.20% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 5.25% volatility increase; capital decreased by 15.98 [2] Financial Futures - IC closed at 8,645.40 with a 4.48% weekly increase, 35.79% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 1.69% volatility increase; capital increased by 55.17 [3] - IF closed at 4,713.80 with a 1.88% weekly increase, 18.34% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 5.52% volatility increase; capital decreased by 41.00 [3] Year - to - date Price Changes - Tin had the highest year - to - date increase of 40.36%, followed by silver at 34.82% and fuel oil at 22.07% [12] - Some commodities had year - to - date decreases, such as paper pulp at - 0.27% and coking coal at - 2.97% [12] Weekly Average Position and Capital Changes - The positions of LPG, starch, nickel, styrene, and lead increased significantly [14] - The capital attention to tin, nickel, coking coal, apple, and methanol increased [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [5][6] - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and long positions can be held [9][10] - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility will significantly increase, stay on the sidelines for now [11][12] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: There is a lack of bullish drivers for rebar prices, but the valuation is low. Investors can focus on low - level long - buying opportunities [14] - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is weak. Investors can focus on low - level long - buying opportunities [16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures of coking coal and coke may continue the oscillatory pattern in the medium term. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities [19] - **Ferroalloys**: Overall, there is an over - supply pressure. Consider long - position opportunities in the low - level range after a decline [20] - **Crude Oil**: The price of Brent crude has support at $70. Temporarily stay on the sidelines for the main crude oil contract [22][23] - **Fuel Oil**: The increase in Singapore fuel oil inventory is bearish for fuel oil prices. Focus on short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [24][25] - **Polyolefins**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines [27] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to show a strong - oscillatory trend [28][29] - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to continue the strong - oscillatory trend [30][31] - **PVC**: The market may show a strong - oscillatory trend [32][35] - **Urea**: The price may oscillate upward after the festival, with a focus on policies and demand rhythm [36][37] - **PX**: May enter the de - stocking channel in the short term, and consider participating in the low - level range [38][39] - **PTA**: May oscillate in the short term, and consider range - based operations [40] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May maintain an oscillatory bottom - building pattern, and operate with caution [41] - **Short - Fibre**: Still trades based on the cost - end logic [42] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to oscillate following the cost - end, pay attention to the restart of maintenance devices [43] - **Soda Ash**: Observe and wait after the festival, and be cautious [44][45] - **Glass**: May oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, but the sustainability is expected to be general [46] - **Caustic Soda**: Be cautious as the mid - and downstream fundamentals have not significantly improved [49][50] - **Pulp**: The future increase depends on the verification of downstream demand. Wait for the increase in the operating load of paper mills after the festival [53] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The support at the bottom is strong, but the short - term volatility may increase [54] - **Copper**: May maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation in the short term [55][56] - **Aluminum**: The price is temporarily under pressure and oscillating [57][58] - **Zinc**: The price will continue to oscillate and adjust after the festival [58][59] - **Lead**: The price will continue to oscillate widely for the time being [60][61] - **Tin**: The price has support at the bottom, but the short - term commodity price volatility may intensify [62][63] - **Nickel**: The primary nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia and macro - event disturbances [64] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: For soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [66] - **Palm Oil**: Consider a bullish trading idea [67][68] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil can consider a bullish trading idea [69][70] - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [73][74] - **Sugar**: Wait and see [75][76] - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [77] - **Pigs**: Supply may still face great pressure, and wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [78] - **Eggs**: Consider holding short positions in the far - month contracts [79][80] - **Corn and Starch**: Corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - festival supply pressure [83] - **Logs**: Pay attention to foreign - market quotes, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [85][86] 3. Summaries According to the Directory Pulp - The main 2605 contract closed at 5312 yuan/ton, down 0.97%. The inventory continued to accumulate, and the base spread strengthened in the past two days. The domestic supply changed little. After the holiday, there was a rigid demand for restocking, and the high cost of foreign markets supported the price bottom. The import pulp market showed a trend of first stabilizing and then rising, and the price sentiment warmed up. However, the demand recovery still needs time, and the actual transactions were still light [51][53] Carbonate Lithium - The main contract rose 3.47% to 173,660 yuan/ton. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance sheet is being reshaped. The supply of lithium carbonate decreased weekly, and the consumption showed the characteristics of not being off - season. The social inventory of lithium carbonate was gradually depleted. There was support at the bottom of the price, but the short - term volatility might increase [54] Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract closed at 102,550 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The macro - situation led to an increase in risk - aversion sentiment. The supply of copper concentrates was tight, and the production of electrolytic copper was high. The demand recovery after the holiday might be slow, and the social inventory accumulation cycle might continue until mid - March. The copper price may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation in the short term [55][56] Aluminum - The main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 23,780 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the main alumina contract closed at 2,747 yuan/ton, down 3.55%. The cost support of alumina was not strong, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remained unchanged. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to accumulate in the short term. The aluminum price was temporarily under pressure and oscillating [57][58] Zinc - The main Shanghai zinc contract closed at 24,570 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The refining zinc production decreased seasonally in February, and the social inventory did not increase significantly before the festival. The demand in the off - season was significant. The zinc price continued to oscillate and adjust after the festival [58][59] Lead - The main Shanghai lead contract closed at 16,800 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The production of primary lead decreased, and the production enthusiasm of secondary lead enterprises was not high. The resumption of work of lead - acid battery enterprises was earlier than that of secondary lead enterprises, forming a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The lead price continued to oscillate widely for the time being [60][61] Tin - The main Shanghai tin contract rose 2.35% to 428,000 yuan/ton. The risk of overseas geopolitical conflicts increased, and the supply - demand was tight. The refined tin inventory decreased, and the price had support at the bottom. The short - term commodity price volatility might intensify [62][63] Nickel - The main Shanghai nickel futures contract fell 1.25% to 139,100 yuan/ton. The geopolitical risk between the US and Iran increased, and the global supply - chain risk increased again. The nickel ore was in short supply, and the cost increased. The stainless - steel market was in the off - season, and the consumption was not optimistic. The primary nickel was in an oversupply pattern [64] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The main soybean meal contract rose 0.35% to 2,834 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract fell 0.10% to 8,198 yuan/ton. The import of domestic soybeans slowed down, the supply was relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal increased moderately. The demand for soybean oil improved slightly, and the inventory pressure decreased [65][66] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil fell. The export decreased, and the domestic palm oil inventory was stable. Consider a bullish trading idea [67][68] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed continued to rise. The import of domestic rapeseed decreased, and the import of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased. The rapeseed meal inventory decreased, and the rapeseed oil inventory increased slightly. Rapeseed oil can consider a bullish trading idea [69][70] Cotton - The domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose first and then fell, and the external - market cotton fell. The new - year global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the inventory will enter the de - stocking cycle. The domestic supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [71][73] Sugar - The domestic Zhengzhou sugar rose significantly, and the external - market raw sugar fluctuated slightly. India lowered its production, while the domestic sugar supply was sufficient, and the import volume was still high. Wait and see [75][76] Apples - The apple futures rebounded with a reduction in positions. The spot market was stable. The inventory of apples in cold storage decreased, and the new - season apple production and quality declined. The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [77] Pigs - The main contract fell 0.13% to 11,395 yuan/ton. The supply of pigs exceeded the demand after the festival, and the supply might still face great pressure. Wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [78] Eggs - The main contract fell 0.67% to 3,239 yuan/500kg. The egg supply in February is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Consider holding short positions in the far - month contracts [79][80] Corn and Starch - The main corn contract closed flat at 2,342 yuan/ton, and the main corn starch contract fell 0.52% to 2,658 yuan/ton. The northern port inventory was low, and the spot price was strong. The corn import decreased in 2025, and the domestic production and demand were basically balanced. The corn starch demand improved slightly, and the inventory was high. It may follow the corn market [81][83] Logs - The main 2605 contract closed at 793.5 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The New Zealand log shipment volume increased during the Spring Festival, and the domestic inventory increased. The downstream demand gradually recovered after the festival, and the foreign - market quotes might rise. Pay attention to foreign - market quotes, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [84][86]

40.55%，环比-19.90个百分点，同比-13.74个百分点。 05合约短线预计在16500-17300区间波动,nr2604合约短线预计在13500-14000区间波动。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 天然橡胶产业日报 2026-02-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17240 | 210 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13980 | 185 | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 130 | -70 20号胶4-5价差(日,元/吨) | -45 | 5 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3260 | 25 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 175091 | 13023 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 45890 | -1632 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -35223 | 2014 | | | 20 ...

2026 年 2 月 25 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 16 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 17 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 20 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.20%报 112.960 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.02%报 108.500 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.07%报 106.175 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.02%报 102.450 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，2 月 24 日以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Potential [4] - Zinc: Potential [4] - Sugar: On hold [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's monetary policy will remain accommodative in 2026, with the USD index expected to range between 95 - 102. The RMB may show a stable upward trend with limited depreciation space [7]. - For cross - border arbitrage of various commodities, different strategies are recommended based on their respective market conditions, such as long LME copper and short SHFE copper for copper futures, and long LME zinc and short SHFE zinc for zinc futures. For most other commodities, a wait - and - see approach is suggested [4][6][37][51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference and overseas price difference fluctuated. This week, due to the neutral valuation of the domestic - international price difference and the high - level volatility of the RMB exchange rate, it's recommended to hold off on cross - market arbitrage [13]. - **Silver**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference first rose and then fell, and the overseas price difference declined. This week, as the domestic - international price difference has returned to a neutral level and the tightness of overseas silver spot has marginally eased, the strategy of shorting the domestic - international price difference should be exited [19]. - **Platinum**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference significantly narrowed, and the previous high - premium situation in the domestic market was rectified. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [25]. - **Palladium**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference significantly narrowed, and the high - premium state was rectified. This week, cross - border arbitrage should be put on hold [31]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, the LME cancellation warrant ratio was high, the overseas squeeze risk remained, and the import profit of forward contracts was unlocked. This week, it's recommended to focus on taking a long position in LME copper and a short position in SHFE copper in forward contracts [37]. - **Aluminum**: Last week, domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to accumulate, while overseas inventories decreased. In the short term, the exchange ratio fluctuated within a range. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [42]. - **Zinc**: Last week, zinc ingot exports gradually decreased, the accumulation speed of LME zinc inventory slowed down, and domestic zinc ingot inventory seasonally accumulated. This week, it's recommended to focus on going long on LME zinc and shorting SHFE zinc [51]. - **Lead**: Last week, LME lead inventory significantly accumulated again, and the domestic lead ingot import window closed. This week, cross - market arbitrage of lead ingots should be put on hold [52]. - **Nickel**: Last week, the import window closed, the nickel balance ratio fluctuated, and domestic and foreign inventories remained at relatively high levels. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [59]. - **Tin**: Last week, the short - term tin balance ratio fluctuated, the inventories of Shanghai tin and LME tin both increased, and the domestic - international price difference was not significant. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [63]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant driving factors. This week, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [67]. 3.4 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent spread fluctuated and rebounded. This week, due to the stability of Middle - East crude oil spot, the large fluctuation of freight rates, and the potential geopolitical risks, it's recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Natural Gas**: Last week, the TFU - HH spread fluctuated widely. This week, it's recommended to reduce positions or exit. In the short term, the trading of overseas gas prices mainly depends on the weather, and in the medium term, the fundamentals may tighten in the US and loosen in Europe, which is negative for the TFU - HH spread [104]. 3.5 Agriculturals - **Soybean**: Last week, the soybean crushing profit fluctuated weakly. The US soybean price was strong due to optimistic export expectations, while the domestic market sentiment was weak after the pre - holiday stockpiling ended. This week, it's recommended to wait and see in the short term [73]. - **Sugar**: Last week, the domestic - international sugar price difference was at a historically high level and continued to widen. This week, it's recommended to wait and see [78]. - **Natural Rubber**: Last week, there were no major changes, and the price spread was within the non - arbitrage range. With the approaching of the global rubber tapping season, supply is expected to increase, but demand remains weak. This week, it's recommended to wait and see [82]. 3.6 Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the market's expectation for the Fed to cut interest rates decreased, putting pressure on the copper price spread between COMEX and LME. However, the expectation of US copper tariffs limited the downward space. This week, arbitrage between COMEX and LME copper should be put on hold [89]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS fluctuated. This week, as the OPEC+ April production policy is undetermined and the Middle - East geopolitical situation is tense, it's recommended to wait and see [94]. - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the WTI - Brent spread narrowed. This week, although the US refined oil inventory is decreasing, the strengthening of oil freight rates has widened the cross - regional spread, and its sustainability needs further observation. It's recommended to wait and see [100]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: See the content under the "Energy" section [104].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market prices were volatile at high levels. Imported rubber prices rose, while domestic spot prices also increased. However, demand showed no significant improvement, and actual orders were average [10]. - Currently, domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas production is transitioning from peak to the reduction period, resulting in a decrease in overall supply. Qingdao port inventories are accumulating, and this trend is expected to continue during the Spring Festival as downstream enterprises complete their stocking and gradually enter the holiday period [10]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined significantly this week, and it will reach an annual low during the Spring Festival holiday next week [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Pay attention to overseas macro - situations, geopolitical issues, and overseas production area conditions during the long holiday [9]. - Market review: Imported rubber market prices rose, and domestic spot prices increased due to external macro - sentiment and higher futures prices. However, demand remained weak [10]. - Market outlook: Supply is decreasing, port inventories are accumulating, and tire enterprise capacity utilization will be low during the Spring Festival [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - Price trends: The main contract price of Shanghai Rubber futures rose 1.46% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose 1% week - on - week [13]. - Position analysis: Not detailed in the summary part, only mentioned the top 20 position changes of Shanghai Rubber and 20 - rubber [16][18]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of February 13, the spread between Shanghai Rubber's May and September contracts was 120, and the spread between 20 - rubber's March and April contracts was - 60 [25]. - Warehouse receipts: As of February 12, Shanghai Rubber warehouse receipts were 112,570 tons, an increase of 500 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 50,803 tons, a decrease of 201 tons from last week [29]. - **Spot Market** - Domestic natural rubber: As of February 12, the price of state - owned whole latex was 16,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - 20 - rubber basis and non - standard basis: As of February 12, the 20 - rubber basis was 365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from last week [39]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - Thailand: As of February 13, the price of field latex in Thailand was 62.3 (+3) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 55 (+1) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton from last week [42]. - Domestic: Yunnan and Hainan producing areas are in the off - season [45]. - **Import Volume** - In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [51]. - **Inventory in Qingdao** - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons, or 2.55%. The bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%, and the general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78% [54]. - **Downstream** - Tire capacity utilization: As of February 12, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points [57]. - Tire export: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume was 8,430,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [60]. - Domestic demand: In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 39% compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year [63]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. Pay attention to risk control during the Spring Festival [7][8]. - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility will significantly increase, and it is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [9]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices may continue the weak - oscillating pattern. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [10][11]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue the oscillating pattern in the medium term. Investors can look for low - buying opportunities and pay attention to position management [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: There may be opportunities to go long in the low - range. Consider the low - cost and rigid cost conditions [18]. - **Crude Oil**: There is some progress in US - Iran negotiations, but geopolitical risks remain. It is advisable to hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [19][20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply shortage in Singapore has eased, but there is still room for an upward movement due to the unresolved Iran risk. Hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: Be cautious in pre - holiday operations [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: Control positions before the holiday [30]. - **PVC**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [32]. - **Urea**: Expected to be oscillating and strong [33]. - **PX**: May oscillate and adjust in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to external market fluctuations during the Spring Festival [34]. - **PTA**: May oscillate, with a small inventory build - up expected. Be cautious, and pay attention to the resumption of downstream factories after the holiday [35]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is still pressure above, and it may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern. Be cautious and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [36]. - **Short - Fiber**: Trade based on the cost - end logic before the holiday. Be cautious and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory [37]. - **Bottle Chips**: Follow the cost - end trend. Be cautious before the holiday and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices and external market changes during the holiday [38]. - **Soda Ash**: Be cautious due to the off - season fundamentals. Hold light positions during the holiday [39]. - **Glass**: The market is generally loose. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday, paying attention to the return to fundamentals [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory situation has slightly improved. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday [41]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the impact on pre - holiday prices is temporarily dull. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Control risks [44]. - **Copper**: May experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. - **Aluminum**: May be under pressure [47][48]. - **Zinc**: Will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. - **Lead**: Expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. - **Tin**: There is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify. Control risks [54]. - **Nickel**: The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [61][62][63]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. - **Apples**: In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. - **Hogs**: Wait and see before the holiday due to the supply - demand imbalance [69][70]. - **Eggs**: Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. - **Logs**: The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76]. 3. Summary by Directory Pulp - The main 2605 contract closed at 5238 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the domestic supply also increased slightly. The downstream pre - holiday procurement ended, and the market entered a demand vacuum period. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. Carbonate Lithium - The main contract rose 3.66% to 149,420 yuan/ton. The supply is in a tight balance, the consumption side has improved, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing. There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase [44]. Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,030 yuan/ton, down 2.56%. The market sentiment declined, and the fundamentals weakened. The copper price may experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,395 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,811 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The alumina is bearish, and the aluminum price may be under pressure [47][48]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,435 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the zinc price will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 4.27% to 376,330 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is tight, and there is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [54]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.74% to 135,070 yuan/ton. The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the cost is expected to rise. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract rose 1.16% to 2,290 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.22% to 8,082 yuan/ton. The soybean meal demand continues to grow moderately, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive trading day. The supply may increase, and the export decreased. Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed followed the rise of US soybean oil futures but did not break through the resistance level. The Chinese import situation has changed, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [61][63]. Cotton - The domestic Zheng cotton oscillated. The USDA February supply - demand report is bearish. In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. Sugar - The Zheng sugar rose and then fell; the overnight external raw sugar fell to a new low. India has a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic market faces dual supply pressure. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. Apples - The domestic apple futures oscillated. The current market is in a vacuum period. In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. Hogs - The main contract rose 0.13% to 11,540 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and it is advisable to wait and see before the holiday [69][70]. Eggs - The main contract rose 1.56% to 3,200 yuan/500kg. The supply in February may remain at a relatively high level. Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. Corn and Starch - The corn main contract rose 0.83% to 2,320 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.51% to 2,572 yuan/ton. The corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. Logs - The main 2603 contract closed at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The shipping volume has recovered, but the downstream demand is weakening. The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76].