成文日期：20251009 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:天 研究员：何宁 （从业资格号:F0238922: 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219) 然橡胶期货日报 1 市场概述与行情回顾 1.1 当日市场总体表现 今日（20251009）天然橡胶期货市场整体呈现上涨态势。天然 橡胶主力合约 RU2601 价格收于 15415 元/吨,相比前一交易日,价 格上涨 385 元/吨（1.55%），同时伴随 16.98 万手的交易量，持仓 量则为 14.07 万手,较前一交易日减少 378 手。20 号胶主力合约 NR2511 价格收于 12465 元/吨，相比前一交易日，价格上涨 365 元 /吨(1.84%),同时伴随 6.96 万手的交易量,持仓维持在 3.41 万 手，较前一交易日减少 52手。 丶■7 图片来源:文华财经行情软件 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线: 4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图 1: 天然橡胶 2601 (ru2601) 分时图 1.3 现货市场数据 截止 10 月 9 日国内橡胶现货价格,泰混 ...

10月10日，上海期货交易所发布关于调整镍等期货交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度的通知（以下简 称"通知"）。 通知指出，经研究决定，自2025年10月14日（星期二）收盘结算时起，交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度 调整如下： 镍、锡期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为8%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为9%，一般持仓交易保证金 比例调整为10%； 丁二烯橡胶、天然橡胶期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为7%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为8%，一般 持仓交易保证金比例调整为9%。 如遇《上海期货交易所风险控制管理办法》第十三条规定情况，则在上述交易保证金比例、涨跌停板幅 度基础上调整。 关于交易保证金和涨跌停板的其他事项按《上海期货交易所风险控制管理办法》执行。 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：节后市场交投活跃度随资金回归有所提升，加之海外产区降雨天气对原料供应仍存扰 动，成本端支撑延续，胶价重心抬升。但近期产区降雨呈减弱趋势，供应增长预期偏强，市场多 空因素交织，预计短时天然橡胶价格将延续区间震荡格局。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区处于割胶期，云南产区雨水偏多，原料释放缓慢，但受节前期现走 跌拖拽，原料价格表现偏弱；海南产区降水天气有所改善，对割胶作业影响减弱，新胶产出逐渐 恢复，由于节后存在补货交单需求，部分加工厂对原料加价抢收情绪升温。近期青岛港口库存延 续降库，主要集中在一般贸易仓库，节前海外货源有集中到港入库，仓库整体入库量环比增加， 下游轮胎厂前期仓库订单逐步提货到厂，增加一般贸易整体出库量，带动青岛港口库存延续降库。 需求方面，假期期间国内部分轮胎企业存5-8天检修计划，拖拽企业产能利 ...

丁二烯橡胶、天然橡胶期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为7%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为8%，一般 持仓交易保证金比例调整为9%。 如遇《上海期货交易所风险控制管理办法》第十三条规定情况，则在上述交易保证金比例、涨跌停板幅 度基础上调整。 镍、锡期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为8%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为9%，一般持仓交易保证金 比例调整为10%； 人民财讯10月10日电，上期所发布通知，自2025年10月14日(星期二)收盘结算时起，交易保证金比例和 涨跌停板幅度调整如下： ...

他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式Ջ发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注 明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 | 原木期货日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | 重到三 | Z0019556 | | 2025年9月30日 | | | | | | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 原木2511 | 9月29日 808.5 | 9月26日 807.5 | 涨跌 1.0 | 涨跌幅 0.12% | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 820.0 | 823.0 | -3.0 | -0.36% | | | 原木2603 | 825.0 | 827.0 | -2.0 | -0.24% | | | 原木2605 | 827.0 | 830.0 | -3.0 | -0.36% | | | 11-01价差 | -11.5 | -15.5 | 4.0 | | | | 11-03价差 | -16.5 | -19.5 | ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) announced on September 26 that it plans to revise the "Management Measures for Hedging Transactions" and "Risk Control Management Measures" to enhance its operational framework and align with the goal of becoming a world-class exchange [1] - The proposed revisions include optimizing the management mechanism for hedging quotas, such as allowing applications for general month hedging quotas by product type and shortening the application time for positions in the delivery month [1] - Additional measures include setting up an automatic conversion function for hedging quotas in the delivery month by product and detailing violations related to hedging to strengthen quota management [1] Group 2 - To improve risk management of position limits, SHFE plans to adjust the position limit management system for aluminum oxide and natural rubber futures based on market conditions [2] - The delivery month position limit for aluminum oxide is proposed to be reduced from 600 contracts to 300 contracts, with adjustments for other months as well, while the general month limit will be set at 8,000 contracts [2] - For natural rubber, the delivery month limit will remain at 50 contracts, but the limit for the month prior to delivery will increase from 150 to 300 contracts, with the general month limit raised from 500 to 1,000 contracts [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market saw the exhaustion of previous positive factors, leading to a continued decline in rubber prices. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, with traders rotating and restocking, and tire factories making necessary restocks. The futures market maintained a weak and volatile pattern, and the spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the downward trend. The enthusiasm of inventory holders to offer prices was average, and downstream restocking was coming to an end, with low inquiry enthusiasm and only moderate restocking at low prices, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather has improved, and the increasing output in the producing areas, combined with the decline in futures and spot prices, has led to a slight weakening of raw material prices. In Hainan, rainy weather has affected tapping operations, with fresh latex output hindered. Due to poor orders and profit margins, local processing factories have limited enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed. The bonded warehouse has continued to reduce inventory, while the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory. Overseas shipments have arrived at the port and been concentrated in storage, with the inbound volume at Qingdao warehouses increasing significantly and exceeding expectations. Previously, the orders of downstream tire factories were gradually shipped out, but the quantity was limited. The outbound volume of the bonded warehouse was better than that of the general trade warehouse, and the general trade warehouse continued to show a slight inventory accumulation state [6]. - In terms of demand, tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels this week to appropriately stock up for post - holiday inventory, with overall operating rates making small adjustments. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance period in advance due to insufficient orders. It is reported that some enterprises plan to start a 5 - 8 - day holiday on September 30 or October 1, which will significantly drag down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15150 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12500 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market's previous positive factors were exhausted, with rubber prices falling. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, and the futures market was weakly volatile. The spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the decline. Downstream restocking was ending, and trading was dull [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's raw material prices weakened slightly, while Hainan's fresh latex output was affected by weather. Qingdao Port's inventory continued to decline with a narrowing decline rate. Tire enterprises' operating rates were slightly adjusted, and some small - scale enterprises entered holiday maintenance in advance [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15150 - 15700, and the nr2511 contract between 12150 - 12500 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.42%, while the main contract price of 20 - rubber oscillated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 1.1% [9]. - **Position Analysis**: No detailed analysis content provided. - **Inter - period Spreads**: As of September 26, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 35, and the spread between 20 - rubber 11 - 12 was - 15 [19]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 24, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 155,830 tons, an increase of 920 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,856 tons, an increase of 303 tons from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices**: As of September 24, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of September 24, the 20 - rubber basis was 847 yuan/ton, an increase of 147 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 740 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of September 24, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 55.3 (- 1) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 50.8 (- 0.82) Thai baht/kg. As of September 19, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Prices**: As of September 24, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [42]. - **Imports**: According to customs data, in August 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 520,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.1214 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47% [45]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 461,200 tons (the adjusted previous total inventory was 464,700 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons, a decline of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory was 69,400 tons (the adjusted previous bonded inventory was 73,100 tons), a decline of 5.07%; the general trade inventory was 391,800 tons (the adjusted previous general trade inventory was 391,600 tons), an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [49]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Operating Rates**: As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points. Currently, tire enterprises mostly maintain their previous operating levels [51]. - **Tire Exports**: In August 2025, China's tire exports were 769,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, China's cumulative tire exports were 5.703 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [54]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In August 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% compared with July and a year - on - year increase of about 35% compared with 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market were close to 710,000 vehicles [57]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on September 26, 2025, and also gives the expected trends for September 2025. It also provides information on macro - news and trading alerts, and analyzes the performance of various futures contracts on September 25, 2025 [2][7][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate. IF2512 has resistance at 4588 and 4600 points, support at 4550 and 4529 points; IH2512 has resistance at 2970 and 2981 points, support at 2946 and 2939 points; IC2512 has resistance at 7250 and 7300 points, support at 7139 and 7100 points; IM2512 has resistance at 7380 and 7459 points, support at 7245 and 7174 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support at 107.40 and 107.30 yuan, resistance at 107.72 and 107.83 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 is likely to oscillate weakly in a wide range, with support at 113.5 and 113.0 yuan, resistance at 114.3 and 114.7 yuan [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2512 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance at 862.1 and 865.0 yuan/gram, support at 850.0 and 848.0 yuan/gram. Silver futures contract AG2512 is likely to oscillate strongly and will attack the resistance at 10600 and 10680 yuan/kg, support at 10411 and 10397 yuan/kg, and may hit a new high since listing [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures contract CU2511 is likely to oscillate in a wide range and will accumulate strength to attack the resistance at 83300 and 84000 yuan/ton, support at 82000 and 81500 yuan/ton. Aluminum futures contract AL2511 is likely to oscillate strongly and will attack the resistance at 20860 and 20940 yuan/ton, support at 20740 and 20700 yuan/ton. Alumina futures contract AO2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and will test the support at 2900 and 2877 yuan/ton, resistance at 2942 and 2960 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Crude oil futures contract SC2511 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 492 and 494 yuan/barrel, support at 485 and 483 yuan/barrel. Fuel oil futures contract FU2601 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance at 2910 and 2929 yuan/ton, support at 2887 and 2873 yuan/ton. PTA futures contract TA601, PVC futures contract V2601, and bean meal futures contract M2601 are likely to oscillate weakly. Natural rubber futures contract RU2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and will test the support at 15210 and 15110 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Macro - news and Trading Alerts - The Ministry of Commerce took multiple measures, including adding US entities to export - control and unreliable - entity lists, responding to Sino - US soybean trade issues, initiating trade - investment barrier investigations against Mexico, and launching an anti - dumping investigation into imported pecans from Mexico and the US [7]. - The digital RMB international operation center was officially launched, and the tax department and platforms are preparing for the first tax - related information submission. The US Q2 GDP growth was revised upwards, and some Fed officials advocated for interest - rate cuts [8]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 25, 2025, IF2512, IH2512, and IC2512 showed different degrees of upward movement, while IM2512 showed a slight decline. The report also gives the expected trends for September 2025, all contracts are likely to oscillate in a wide range [12][13][16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 25, 2025, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 oscillated weakly, and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 oscillated slightly upwards. The report gives the expected trends for September 26, 2025 [37][40]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On September 25, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2512 oscillated downwards, and the silver futures contract AG2512 oscillated upwards and hit a new high during the night session. The report gives the expected trends for September 2025 and September 26, 2025 [45][50]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On September 25, 2025, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures showed different trends. The report gives the expected trends for September 2025 and September 26, 2025 [56][61]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: On September 25, 2025, various commodity futures such as crude oil, fuel oil, and PTA showed different trends. The report gives the expected trends for September 2025 and September 26, 2025 [100][104][111].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, Sino - US trade negotiations, and geopolitical issues. Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a complex supply - demand situation. With increasing supply and weak pre - holiday demand, the spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][4]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from high inventory, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and weak demand [5][6]. - The PX & PTA market has a tight balance in the short - term, but the supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the price is affected by macro and cost factors [8][9]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and a weakening demand, with a risk of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - The short - fiber market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, but the processing fee is expected to remain low [13][14]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][15]. - The pure benzene and styrene market has different supply - demand situations. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile; styrene supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - The propylene market has an increasing supply and weak downstream demand, and the price is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [19][20]. - The plastic and PP market has a short - term price volatility due to rising oil prices and a medium - term bearish outlook [21][23]. - The PVC market has a large inventory pressure, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook in the short - and medium - term [23][26]. - The caustic soda market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term is weak, and the medium - term is expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [31][32]. - The glass market is expected to be volatile before the holiday, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand [34][36]. - The methanol market has an increasing supply and a high port inventory, and the price rebound is limited [39]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and export [40][41]. - The log market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price can be slightly long - tried near the integer level [43]. - The pulp market has a high port inventory and weak demand, and the price can be slightly long - bought at the low point of last week [44][46]. - The offset printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and weak demand, and the price of the 01 contract can be short - sold near the lower limit of the spot price [47][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market has different trends for different types of rubber, and the trading strategies vary for different contracts [49][51]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decreasing capacity utilization rate, and the price of the 11 - contract can be short - tried [52][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $64.98, down $0.01 (- 0.02%); Brent2511 contract settled at $69.42, up $0.11 (+ 0.16%); SC2511 contract rose 6.6 to 488.9 yuan/barrel, and rose 2.2 to 491.1 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: A new Fed governor called for significant rate cuts, but other colleagues advocated caution. US initial jobless claims decreased, and investors thought it did not support further rate cuts. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affected oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations improved the macro - sentiment, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation increased the risk premium. The short - term oil price is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are weak; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3440 points (+ 0.41%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3386 points (+ 0.39%) at night. The spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, rising crude oil prices and reduced rainfall increased demand, but the supply - demand pattern did not change significantly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, pre - holiday project rush increased demand, but low - price resources from some merchants affected the price. In the South China market, typhoon and rainfall affected sales, but the expected reduction in production in October supported the price [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic asphalt plant operating rate increased, the refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The high - level oil price supported the cost, but the pre - holiday demand was weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be weak; sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2893 (+ 0.35%) at night, and LU11 closed at 3455 (+ 0.58%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [5]. - **Related News**: The ARA fuel oil inventory decreased, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot windows had no or few transactions [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities were attacked, but the refineries and transportation facilities recovered. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand decreased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand had no specific driver [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and LU near - month contract is expected to be range - bound with crude oil; consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [8]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 72/+ 1.09%) during the day and 6636 (- 38/- 0.57%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4678 (+ 52/+ 1.12%) during the day and 4652 (- 26/- 0.56%) at night. The PX spot price increased, and the PTA basis was stable [8]. - **Related News**: The PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The PTA production and sales increased [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The PTA supply is expected to increase slightly in October, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is affected by macro and cost factors [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to rising oil prices and market sentiment, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [10]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4246 (+ 12/+ 0.28%) and 4224 (- 22/- 0.52%) at night. The spot basis was stable [10][11]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol production and sales changed, and the operating rate decreased [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase due to planned maintenance and new device commissioning, and the demand is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be loose, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weak and volatile; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [12]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 76/+ 1.21%) during the day and 6326 (- 46/- 0.72%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [12][13]. - **Related News**: The polyester production and sales increased, and the terminal operating rate increased [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber processing fee fluctuated narrowly. The raw material price increase and terminal operating rate increase promoted inventory reduction, but the terminal cash flow was in deficit, and the processing fee was expected to remain low [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [14]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5840 (+ 56/+ 0.97%) and 5808 (- 32/- 0.55%) at night. The spot market had a good trading atmosphere [14]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip factory export price increased slightly [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream terminal bid for next - year's first - quarter orders, a bottle - chip device was under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory was expected to decrease, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5922 (+ 15/+ 0.25%) during the day and 5894 (- 28/- 0.47%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6958 (+ 30/+ 0.43%) during the day and 6927 (- 31/- 0.45%) at night. The pure benzene spot price increased slightly, and the styrene port inventory increased [16]. - **Related News**: The pure benzene and styrene production and sales and operating rates changed [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The styrene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. The price is affected by inventory and downstream demand [17][18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to geopolitical and macro factors, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; long pure benzene and short styrene in arbitrage; options are on hold [18]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 15/+ 0.24%) and 6371 (- 1/- 0.02%) at night. The spot price in different regions remained stable [18][19]. - **Related News**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propane market entered the peak season, and the demand for PDH devices was expected to increase. The propylene supply increased due to device restart, and the market was loose. The downstream product profit was poor, and the load increase was limited [19][20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is recommended to short - sell on rebounds; arbitrage is on hold; sell put options [21]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price partially weakened, and the PP spot price in different regions was stable or slightly changed. The linear futures increased slightly [21]. - **Related News**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios decreased, and the operating rates changed. The downstream industry operating rates increased slightly [21][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand was in the peak season, and the pre - holiday inventory was concerned. The supply was expected to increase due to reduced maintenance and new device commissioning. The near - term cost increase supported the price, and the medium - term price was recommended to be short - sold on highs [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be volatile, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was strong and volatile, and the futures price was also strong and volatile. The trading was light [23]. - **Related News**: The PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, the预售 volume increased slightly, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC inventory was at a high level, and the supply was expected to increase due to new device commissioning. The demand was weak due to the real - estate market weakness, and the export was expected to decrease. The short - and medium - term outlook was bearish [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is bearish in the short - and medium - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price in different regions remained stable [26]. - **Related News**: The caustic soda production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory increased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: The caustic soda market was in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term was affected by inventory and price reduction, and the medium - term was expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term is weak, and medium - term is long after a sufficient correction; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 01 contract closed at 1315 yuan (+ 8/+ 0.6%) during the day and 1306 yuan (- 9/- 0.7%) at night. The spot price in different regions changed slightly [29][31]. - **Related News**: The soda ash production, inventory, and profit changed. The market was weak and stable [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was stable. The price was affected by inventory, downstream demand, and policy. The price was expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday [32]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [32][34]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 01 contract closed at 1270 yuan (+ 33/+ 2.67%) and 1264 yuan (- 6/- 0.47%) at night. The spot price in different regions increased [34][35]. - **Related News**: The glass production, inventory, and profit changed. The market trading atmosphere was good [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass production increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price was affected by production, inventory, and demand. The price was expected to be volatile before the holiday [36]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile before the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [36][37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2341 (- 16/- 0.68%). The spot price in different regions was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The methanol production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device operating rate decreased, and the import recovered. The domestic supply was loose due to the end of autumn maintenance. The port inventory increased rapidly. The price rebound was limited due to supply and inventory [39]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stop loss on short positions; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1674 (+ 1/+ 0.06%). The spot price was stable with small changes [40]. - **Related News**: The urea production and operating rate changed [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The export had a certain

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the trading schedule for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025, indicating no night trading on September 30, 2025, and a market closure from October 1 to October 8, 2025 [1][2] - Trading will resume on October 9, 2025, with a collection auction for all futures and options contracts from 08:55 to 09:00 [2] Group 2 - Starting from the settlement on September 29, 2025, margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts will be adjusted, with specific percentages outlined for different commodities [2] - For example, the price fluctuation limit for aluminum alloy futures will be adjusted to 7%, while for gold and silver futures, it will be set at 15% [2] Group 3 - On October 9, 2025, after trading, the price fluctuation limits and margin ratios will revert to their original levels following the first trading day without a one-sided market [3] - Other matters regarding price fluctuation limits and margin ratios will be governed by the Shanghai Futures Exchange's risk control management regulations [4]