2025 年 11 月 25 日星期二 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.31%报 115.570 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.04%报 108.430 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.06%报 105.855 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.460 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，11 月 21 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3750 亿元 7 ...

2025 年 11 月 24 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金、白银期货将偏强震荡 碳酸锂期 货将震荡偏弱 纯碱、原油、豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货大概率将偏强震荡：IF2512 阻力位 4457 和 4511 点，支撑位 4400 和 4369 点；IH2512 阻力位 2968 和 2994 点，支撑位 2979 和 2963 点；IC2512 阻力位 6872 和 6970 点，支撑位 6700 和 6622 点；IM2512 阻 力位 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Natural Rubber Market Weekly Report [3] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market showed a divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber, with rubber prices rising and falling. The buying sentiment in the imported rubber market was weak, while the spot price of domestic natural rubber increased. The futures market fluctuated upwards, improving the trading sentiment [9]. - In the near future, the weather in Yunnan has improved, reducing the impact on rubber tapping. Driven by winter storage demand, concentrated latex factories have raised prices to purchase raw materials. In Hainan, the weather is fair, but the temperature has dropped, leading to a decline in the dry content of latex. Local processing plants have entered the winter storage phase and continue to offer higher prices for raw materials [9]. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to increase. The bonded warehouse is experiencing destocking, while the general trade inventory continues to rise. Overseas shipments to the port remain at a high level. Factories replenished their stocks earlier, and most of the out - bound goods from the general trade warehouse are for previous orders. The downstream's willingness to stock up is low, and there are few new orders [9]. - In terms of demand, tire companies' orders are insufficient. Some companies have scheduled maintenance, and others are operating at reduced capacity, dragging down the tire production capacity utilization rate. As the production of maintenance companies gradually resumes, the production capacity utilization rate of tire companies may show a restorative increase next week, but the overall demand improvement is limited, and companies will continue to control production [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,700 [9]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market showed a divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber, with rubber prices rising and falling. The buying sentiment in the imported rubber market was weak, while the spot price of domestic natural rubber increased. The futures market fluctuated upwards, improving the trading sentiment [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The weather in Yunnan has improved, and winter storage demand has led to price increases for raw materials. In Hainan, the temperature has dropped, and local processing plants are in the winter storage phase. Qingdao Port's total inventory continues to increase, with the bonded warehouse destocking and general trade inventory rising. Tire companies' orders are insufficient, but production capacity utilization may recover slightly next week [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,700 [9]. 4.2 Futures and Spot Markets 4.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed up with a weekly increase of 0.16%, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber also closed up with a weekly increase of 0.16% [12]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific position analysis results are provided in the text. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of November 21, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 80, and the spread between 20 - rubber 1 - 2 was - 15 [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 20, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 39,600 tons, a decrease of 68,870 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 49,795 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [27]. 4.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of November 20, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 14,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [31]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of November 20, the 20 - rubber basis was 773 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 4.3 Industry Situation 4.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of November 21, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 57 (+0.7) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 52.95 (+0.85) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 32.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 18.6 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Price**: As of November 20, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [43]. 4.3.2 Import - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [47]. 4.3.3 Qingdao Inventory - As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 0.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.71 percentage points [50]. 4.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization**: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [53]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025, China's tire exports were 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 225,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 2.7266 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%; the exports of truck and bus tires were 398,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 4.0265 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [56]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In October 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September this year and a significant year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [59].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external market environments [5]. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a decline in treasury bond futures. With the current macro - economic situation and market conditions, there is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, and caution is advised [5]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day showed mixed performance. Given the current domestic economic situation, market sentiment, and external factors, the risk of a significant decline is low, and investors can choose the right time to go long [7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day witnessed price increases. Considering the global trade and financial environment, central bank actions, and the current price level, it is advisable to wait and see for a long - position opportunity [10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Affected by macro - economic factors and supply - demand relationships, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [47]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Alumina supply is relatively loose, and aluminum needs to beware of seasonal consumption pressure and profit - taking, with a possible phased correction [49]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day remained flat. With tight supply of zinc concentrates and weak downstream demand, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [52]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Due to supply and demand factors, lead prices are expected to operate within a range [54]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. With tight supply and certain demand support, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [56]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day had an increase. Facing supply - demand contradictions, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [58]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Considering supply - demand relationships and technical aspects, prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With a weak supply - demand pattern and technical resistance, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day had a significant decline. Based on supply - demand changes and technical analysis, there may be a short - term correction, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during the correction [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day had a decline. With high - level production decline, weak demand recovery, and cost support, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels [18]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day had an upward trend. Considering supply - demand factors and market news, there are concerns about supply surplus, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities in the short - term [20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With mixed supply - demand factors, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [23][24]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With improved downstream demand in some areas, investors can focus on long - position opportunities [26]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and supply changes [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With supply and demand factors, there is still room for short - term price increases, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities [31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day had a decline. With an oversupply situation, attention should be paid to supply - side changes [33]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. It is expected that the market will decline slightly in the next period, but the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day had an increase. With improved short - term supply - demand structure, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and investors can participate in the range [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day had an increase. With low processing fees, low inventory, and cost factors, it is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and caution is needed [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day had a decline. With increased supply and inventory, it is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to inventory and supply changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With high - level supply, stable demand, and enhanced cost - driving, it is expected to fluctuate with costs [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day had an increase. With raw material price support and stable supply and demand, it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day had a significant increase. With strong supply and demand, inventory is being depleted, and attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [45]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day had different performances. With sufficient soybean supply and improved demand for soybean oil, investors can focus on long - position opportunities for soybean oil and consider exiting long positions for soybean meal [59]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day had an increase. Affected by supply - demand factors, investors can consider long - position opportunities during corrections [61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day had a decline. With supply - demand and external factors, investors can consider a long - position strategy for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With increased global and US production and inventory, and domestic supply and demand factors, cotton prices are expected to be weak [66]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day had a decline. With global production expectations and domestic supply pressure, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [70]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day had a high - level volatile operation. With current inventory and market conditions, apple prices are expected to operate strongly [74]. - **Pigs**: The previous trading day had a price increase. With sufficient supply and uncertain demand, investors can consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day had a price decline. With high - level supply and weak demand, investors can consider closing short positions gradually [79]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day had an increase. With new - season corn supply pressure and inventory factors, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch may follow the corn market [81].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire report industry are provided. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7] - **Stock Index Futures**: The risk of a significant decline is low, and it is advisable to take long positions opportunistically [9][10] - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily observe and wait for opportunities to go long [11][12] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [15] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue to correct in the short term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [17] - **Ferroalloys**: After a decline, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss - making range [19][20] - **Crude Oil**: In the short term, focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [22][23] - **Fuel Oil**: Focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [25][26] - **Polyolefins**: Temporarily observe [28] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate, with limited downside space. Pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [29][31] - **Natural Rubber**: Focus on long - position opportunities [32][33] - **PVC**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [34][35] - **Urea**: The downward space is limited [36][37] - **PX**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider trading within the range [38][39] - **PTA**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] - **Short - Fiber**: May fluctuate following the cost. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to fluctuate following the cost. Control risks [43] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45] - **Copper**: Expected to maintain high - level oscillations [46][47] - **Aluminum**: May experience a phased correction [48][50] - **Zinc**: Will continue to oscillate within a range [51][52] - **Lead**: Will operate within a range [53][54] - **Tin**: May oscillate strongly [55][56] - **Nickel**: May oscillate [57] - **Soybean Oil and Meal**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [58][59] - **Palm Oil**: Consider going long during corrections [60][61] - **Rapeseed Meal and Oil**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63][64] - **Cotton**: Expected to be weak [65][67][68] - **Sugar**: Expected to be under pressure and operate with a weak oscillation [69][71][72] - **Apples**: Expected to operate strongly [73][76] - **Hogs**: Consider shorting on rebounds [77][78] - **Eggs**: Consider closing short positions gradually [79][82] - **Corn and Starch**: It is advisable to observe for corn and wait for the release of supply pressure; corn starch may follow the corn market [83][86] Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw all treasury bond futures close higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising 0.06%, 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively [5] - **Open - Market Operations**: On November 18, the central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 37 billion yuan [5] - **Policy News**: 12 departments including the Beijing Branch of the People's Bank of China issued a plan to support consumption infrastructure and the construction of the commercial circulation system [5] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures down 0.41%, 0.23%, 0.85%, and 0.69% respectively [8][9] - **Economic Data**: In October, the unemployment rates of different age - groups in the labor force were announced, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow [9] - **Market Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The risk of a significant decline is low [9] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw gold and silver futures decline, with gold down 1.18% and silver down 1.96% [11] - **Positive Factors**: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and the expected Fed rate cuts are beneficial to precious metals [11] - **Negative Factors**: The recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to high prices and increased volatility [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a slight rebound in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures [13] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market is entering the off - season. Supply is affected by poor profitability, and inventory is high [13] - **Outlook**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend [13] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillate [15] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The demand for iron ore has declined, but there was a recent increase in daily pig - iron output. Supply is abundant, and inventory is higher than last year [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and there may be resistance to rebounds [15] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures [17] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Coking coal supply is slightly tight, and demand is weak. Coke supply has decreased, and demand may weaken [17] - **Outlook**: May continue to correct in the short term [17] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures decline [19] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Manganese ore supply has decreased, and costs have increased. Production is declining, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating [19] - **Outlook**: After a decline, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss - making range [19][20] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open high and close low [21] - **Industry News**: The CFTC report is suspended, the number of US oil and gas rigs has increased, and Russia has been attacked [21] - **Outlook**: There are concerns about oversupply, but the attack on Russia is beneficial to prices. In the short term, focus on shorting opportunities [22][23] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned, but there is an analysis of supply and demand [24] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory is high, which is negative, while Russia's sanctions and reduced Sino - US trade frictions are positive [24][25] - **Outlook**: Focus on shorting opportunities [25][26] Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a weak and volatile PP market in Hangzhou and a stable LLDPE market in Yuyao [27] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: PP downstream demand has a mixed performance, with some industries seeing an increase and others remaining weak [27] - **Outlook**: Temporarily observe [28] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main synthetic rubber contract rise 0.91% [29] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Raw material prices have rebounded, production capacity utilization has increased, and inventory has increased [29][30] - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate, with limited downside space. Pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [29][31] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main natural rubber contract rise 0.33% [32] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by weather, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [32] - **Outlook**: Focus on long - position opportunities [32][33] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PVC contract decline 1.46% [34] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, production capacity utilization has decreased, and inventory has decreased slightly [34][35] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [34][35] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main urea contract rise 0.36% [36] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is at a certain level [36] - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited [36][37] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PX contract decline 0.53% [38] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, and imports have decreased slightly [38] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider trading within the range [38][39] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PTA contract decline 0.55% [40] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has adjusted, demand is stable, and processing fees have decreased [40] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main ethylene glycol contract decline 0.64% [41] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, inventory has increased, and demand is limited [41] - **Outlook**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main short - fiber contract decline 0.64% [42] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization is high, demand is weak, and processing fees are at a certain level [42] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate following the cost. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main bottle - chip contract decline 0.56% [43] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, export growth has slowed, and processing fees are at a certain level [43] - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate following the cost. Control risks [43] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main lithium carbonate contract rise 0.93% [44] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors is improving, with inventory decreasing [44][45] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45] Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main copper contract decline 0.03% [46] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by mine production problems, and demand is weak except for the copper - foil sector [46] - **Outlook**: Expected to maintain high - level oscillations [46][47] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main aluminum contract decline 0.16%, and the alumina contract decline 0.36% [48] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Alumina supply is abundant, and aluminum demand is weakening [48] - **Outlook**: May experience a phased correction [48][50] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main zinc contract rise 0.11% [51] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply of zinc concentrate is tight, production has decreased, and demand is flat [51] - **Outlook**: Will continue to oscillate within a range [51][52] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main lead contract decline 0.49% [53] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance, and demand is in the off - season [53] - **Outlook**: Will operate within a range [53][54] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main tin contract rise 0.68% [55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is tight, and demand has shown some resilience [55][56] - **Outlook**: May oscillate strongly [55][56] Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main nickel contract decline 0.02% [57] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Nickel ore prices are stable, production may be affected, and demand is weak [57] - **Outlook**: May oscillate [57] Soybean Oil and Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw soybean meal down 0.33% and soybean oil up 0.60% [58] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, oil - mill压榨 is in a loss, and demand for both products has some improvement [58][59] - **Outlook**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [58][59] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil futures rose, and exports decreased in November [60] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Malaysian inventory is at a high level but may decrease, and domestic inventory is at a medium level [60] - **Outlook**: Consider going long during corrections [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed futures rose [62] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Chinese rapeseed imports have decreased, and inventory is at different levels [62][63] - **Outlook**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63][64] Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic cotton futures decline, and overseas cotton rose [65] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Global and US cotton production and inventory have increased, and domestic supply pressure is high [65][67] - **Outlook**: Expected to be weak [65][67][68] Sugar - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic and overseas sugar futures decline [69] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Brazil is in the seasonal production - reduction period, India has strong production - increase expectations, and domestic imports are expected to be high [69][71] - **Outlook**: Expected to be under pressure and operate with a weak oscillation [69][71][72] Apples - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic apple futures oscillate at a high level [73] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Inventory is lower than last year, and quality is poor [73][74][75] - **Outlook**: Expected to operate strongly [73][76] Hogs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main hog contract decline 1.16% [78] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is abundant, and demand is affected by the season. Inventory and cost are at certain levels [77][78] - **Outlook**: Consider shorting on rebounds [77][78] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main egg contract decline 0.87% [82] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, but there are signs of improvement. Demand is weak [79][80][82] - **Outlook**: Consider closing short positions gradually [79][82] Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main corn contract decline 0.50% and the starch contract decline 0.96% [83] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Corn supply is abundant, and demand is growing slightly. Corn starch demand has improved, but inventory is high [83][84][86] - **Outlook**:

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on November 19, 2025, including whether they will be strongly or weakly volatile, and provides corresponding resistance and support levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - Premier Li Qiang called for free trade and strengthened cooperation in the SCO, and met with Russian President Putin. China - Japan diplomatic consultations were held, and China expressed dissatisfaction with the results. The US modified patent rules, which China responded to as discriminatory. Hainan Free Trade Port is about to be fully closed, and policies for high - standard digital parks were released. Unemployment data for different age groups in October was announced. False information about the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area was refuted. Trump mentioned the selection of the next Fed chair. Saudi Arabia promised to increase investment in the US. A bill related to Epstein may pass in the US Senate. US employment data showed a decline in private - sector jobs, and initial and continuing jobless claims were reported [8][9][10]. 2. Commodity Futures - Related Information - The trading and intraday closing fees for the lithium carbonate futures LC2601 contract will be adjusted on November 20. On November 18, international precious metal futures generally fell, oil futures rose, and London base metals fell. The EU plans to restrict waste aluminum exports, and India's gold imports in October reached a record high. Exchange rates and the performance of the on - shore and offshore RMB against the US dollar were also reported [11][12][13]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On November 18, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 generally opened slightly lower, rebounded and then declined. They faced resistance and continued to have a slight increase in downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, stock index futures will be strongly volatile, and in November 2025, they will have a wide - range volatile trend [13][14][19]. Treasury Bond Futures - On November 18, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly and strengthened. The central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 37 billion yuan. It is expected that on November 19, both contracts will have a wide - range volatile trend [39][42][44]. Gold Futures - On November 18, the gold futures contract AU2512 opened slightly higher, rebounded and then declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be strongly volatile in a wide range, and on November 19, the AU2512 contract will be strongly volatile [44][45]. Silver Futures - On November 18, the silver futures contract AG2602 opened slightly higher, fluctuated weakly and declined, with significantly increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be strongly volatile in a wide range and may hit a record high, and on November 19, the AG2602 contract will be weakly strong [53][54]. Copper Futures - On November 18, the copper futures contract CU2512 opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range volatile trend, and on November 19, the CU2601 contract will be strongly volatile [57]. Aluminum Futures - On November 18, the aluminum futures contract AL2601 opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be strongly volatile in a wide range, and on November 19, the AL2601 contract will be strongly volatile [64]. Alumina Futures - On November 18, the alumina futures contract AO2601 opened flat, fluctuated and declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range volatile trend, and on November 19, the AO2601 contract will fluctuate and consolidate [69]. Polysilicon Futures - On November 18, the polysilicon futures contract PS2601 opened with a gap down, fluctuated weakly, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, the PS2601 contract will have a wide - range volatile trend [74]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On November 18, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and declined, with increased upward space and downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be weakly strong, and on November 19, the LC2601 contract will be strongly volatile [74][75]. Rebar Futures - On November 18, the rebar futures contract RB2601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and declined, with a slight increase in downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range volatile trend, and on November 19, the RB2601 contract will be weakly volatile [80]. Hot - Rolled Coil Futures - On November 18, the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2601 opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined, with a slight increase in downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, the HC2601 contract will be weakly volatile [85]. Iron Ore Futures - On November 18, the iron ore futures contract I2601 opened slightly lower, fluctuated and rose slightly. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be weakly volatile in a wide range, and on November 19, the I2601 contract will be weakly volatile [88]. Coking Coal Futures - On November 18, the coking coal futures contract JM2601 opened slightly lower, fluctuated weakly and declined, with significantly increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be weakly volatile in a wide range, and on November 19, the JM2601 contract will be weakly volatile [94][95]. Glass Futures - On November 18, the glass futures contract FG601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be weakly volatile, and on November 19, the FG601 contract will be weakly volatile [97]. Soda Ash Futures - On November 18, the soda ash futures contract SA601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be weakly volatile in a wide range, and on November 19, the SA601 contract will be weakly volatile [102][103]. Crude Oil Futures - On November 18, the crude oil futures contract SC2601 opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined slightly, with a slight increase in downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range volatile trend, and on November 19, the SC2601 contract will be strongly volatile [106]. Fuel Oil Futures - On November 18, the fuel oil futures contract FU2601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, the FU2601 contract will have a wide - range volatile trend [110]. PTA Futures - On November 18, the PTA futures contract TA601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and declined slightly, with a slight increase in downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, the TA601 contract will be strongly volatile [112]. PVC Futures - On November 18, the PVC futures contract V2601 opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, the V2601 contract will be weakly volatile [113]. Methanol Futures - On November 18, the methanol futures contract MA601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly and strengthened, with a slight increase in downward space. It is expected that on November 19, the MA601 contract will be weakly volatile [116]. Soybean Meal Futures - On November 18, the soybean meal futures contract M2601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and declined slightly, with a slight increase in downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, the M2601 contract will be weakly volatile [118]. Soybean Oil Futures - On November 18, the soybean oil futures contract Y2601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and rose slightly. It is expected that on November 19, the Y2601 contract will be strongly volatile [119]. Palm Oil Futures - On November 18, the palm oil futures contract P2601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and rose slightly. It is expected that on November 19, the P2601 contract will be strongly volatile [122]. Natural Rubber Futures - On November 18, the natural rubber futures contract RU2601 opened flat, fluctuated and declined slightly, with a slight increase in downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, the RU2601 contract will be strongly volatile [124].

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond market, stock market, and various commodity markets show different trends and investment opportunities based on their respective fundamentals [6][9][13]. Group 2: Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts rose by 0.33%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 283 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 163.1 billion yuan on that day. From January to October, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year [5]. - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [6][7]. Group 3: Equities (Stock Index Futures) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures主力 contracts fell by 0.89%, 1.12%, 0.50%, and 0.26% respectively [8]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is low, the valuation of domestic assets is low, and there is room for repair. The risk of a sharp decline in the stock index is small, and investors can consider going long at an appropriate time [9][10][11]. Group 4: Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract closed at 929.46, down 2.49%, and the silver主力 contract closed at 11,933, down 3.57%. Japan's Q3 GDP showed a decline, while the EU raised its GDP growth forecast for the eurozone in 2025 [12]. - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to high prices and increased volatility. It is advisable to wait and see for long - entry opportunities [13][14]. Group 5: Ferrous Metals (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal and Coke, Ferroalloys) Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,090 - 3,230 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the price of rebar is likely to remain weak due to the weak demand from the real estate industry and high inventory. The trend of hot - rolled coil is expected to be similar. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound, and investors can consider shorting at high positions during the rebound [16]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The spot price of PB powder was 790 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special powder was 680 yuan/ton [18]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is weak. Technically, the rebound may face resistance. Investors can consider shorting at high positions [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, while the demand for high - priced coking coal has decreased. The fourth - round increase in the spot purchase price of coke has been implemented [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Technically, coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and rebound. Investors can consider buying on dips [21]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract rose 0.73% to 5,792 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose 1.38% to 5,566 yuan/ton. The supply of manganese ore has decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The production of ferroalloys has declined, and the demand is weak [23]. - **Outlook**: The over - supply situation of ferroalloys has eased. After a decline, investors can consider long - entry opportunities when the spot is in the loss - making range [24]. Group 6: Energy (Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly and closed near the 5 - day moving average. The CFTC position report was suspended due to the US government shutdown. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased, and Russia was attacked, which affected the oil market [25]. - **Outlook**: Although the number of rigs has increased, the growth of US crude oil production is still uncertain. The attack on Russia is positive for oil prices, but there are still concerns about oversupply. It is advisable to wait and see [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downward. The expected supply of fuel oil is sufficient, but the sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions have positive effects [28][29][30]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for the fuel oil主力 contract [31]. Group 7: Chemicals (Polyolefins, Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber, PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip, Lithium Carbonate) Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: In the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed high - level loosening, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao adjusted. The average downstream industry start - up rate of domestic polypropylene increased slightly, and the demand for some packaging products increased [32]. - **Outlook**: Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [33]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber主力 contract fell 0.14%. The price of raw material butadiene rebounded, and the capacity utilization rate of the high - cis butadiene rubber industry increased [34]. - **Outlook**: The price of synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate widely with limited downward space. Pay attention to the raw material and supply situation [34]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber主力 contract rose 0.20%. The supply in domestic and overseas production areas is affected by weather, and the demand from some enterprises has decreased. Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year [35]. - **Outlook**: Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [35]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract fell 0.07%. The supply is still in excess, and the profit of the industrial chain has declined. The social inventory has decreased slightly [36]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the changes in exports and supply reduction after the festival [36]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract rose 0.79%. The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the industrial demand is insufficient. The inventory situation is different from the previous week's expectation [37]. - **Outlook**: The urea market is expected to decline slightly in the next period, but the downward space is limited [37][38]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX主力 contract fell 0.76%. The PXN spread is relatively stable, the supply has decreased slightly, and the cost is affected by the oil price [39]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX may fluctuate and adjust, with support at the bottom. Investors can participate in the range, pay attention to the oil price and macro - policies [39]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2601主力 contract fell 0.42%. The supply load has been adjusted, the demand of the polyester industry is relatively stable, and the processing fee has decreased [40][41]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PTA may fluctuate. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to the oil price [41]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol主力 contract rose 0.36%. The overall start - up load has decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the demand support is limited [42]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ethylene glycol may be under pressure. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602主力 contract fell 0.16%. The supply load is high, the demand has not changed much, and the cost drive has increased [43]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2601主力 contract fell 0.24%. The processing fee has been adjusted, the supply load has decreased, the export growth has slowed down, but it is still at a high level [45]. - **Outlook**: In the future, bottle - chip is expected to fluctuate with the cost. Investors should control risks [45]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the主力 contract rose 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased [46]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46]. Group 8: Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel) Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper主力 contract closed at 86,320 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The US government shutdown ended, and China's economic data in October was weak. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the terminal demand is affected by high raw material prices [47][48]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [48][49]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum主力 contract closed at 21,625 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, and the alumina主力 contract closed at 2,790 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The supply of bauxite is stable, the supply of alumina is loose, and the demand is weakening [50]. - **Outlook**: There may be a phased correction [50][51]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc主力 contract closed at 22,390 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, the production of refined zinc has decreased, and the demand is average [52][53]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [53][54]. Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead主力 contract closed at 17,275 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. The supply of primary lead is affected by maintenance, the production of recycled lead is growing slowly, and the demand is in the off - season [55]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to run within a range [55][56]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the tin主力 contract fell 1.12% to 290,940 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand shows some resilience in emerging fields [57]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [57]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the nickel主力 contract fell 0.71% to 116,990 yuan/ton. The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel - iron is affected, and the demand is weak [58][59]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [59]. Group 9: Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil and Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal and Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apple, Live Pigs, Eggs, Corn and Starch) Soybean Oil and Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.23% to 3,043 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.14% to 8,282 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slower, and the US soybean production is slightly adjusted. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the inventory of soybean oil and meal has different trends [60]. - **Outlook**: For soybean meal, investors can consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise. For soybean oil, pay attention to long - entry opportunities at the low - cost support level [61]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market is affected by the exchange rate and export data. The domestic palm oil imports have decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level. The catering industry shows growth [62]. - **Outlook**: Consider buying on dips [63]. Rapeseed Meal and Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed market is affected by the US soybean market. The import of Canadian rapeseed has not restarted, and the inventory of rapeseed, meal, and oil in China has different trends [64]. - **Outlook**: For rapeseed oil, consider a long - biased strategy [65]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The US Department of Agriculture raised the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. The domestic cotton production is expected to be high, and the demand is weak after the peak season [65][66]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to run weakly [66][67]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Brazilian sugar production is in the seasonal decline period, while India has a strong production increase expectation. The domestic sugar production in the north has started, and the import volume is expected to be high in the fourth quarter [68][69][70][71]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [72]. Apple - **Market Performance**: The domestic apple futures are oscillating at a high level. The inventory is lower than last year, and the quality of this year's apples is poor [73]. - **Outlook**: Apple prices are expected to run strongly [74]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs has decreased. The supply may increase in the second half of the month, and the demand is expected to be weak in the short term [75][77]. - **Outlook**: Consider shorting on rebounds and pay attention to changes in consumption [77]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The price of eggs has decreased slightly. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level but may decline slightly in November. The consumption may be supported after the temperature drops [78]. - **Outlook**: Consider gradually closing short positions [79]. Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: The corn主力 contract was flat, and the corn starch主力 contract fell 0.60%. The US corn production was adjusted downward, and the demand for corn shows a slight increase. The inventory of corn and starch has different trends [80][81]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [82].

多空交织驱动不显，或将维持震荡运行 研究报告 橡胶周报 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 的免责声明。 摘要： 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约震荡偏强，总体小幅上涨。 展望后市，宏观方面，上周三美政府结束史上最长"停摆"， 提振市场情绪；国内公布 10 月经济"成绩单"，显示经济增速 有所放缓。从基本面来看，供给方面，橡胶成本端存在支撑。 10 月天然橡胶进口数量同比小幅增加，1-10 月，中国累计进口 天然及合成橡胶增幅明显。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率较 上周均微幅上升。上周全钢胎、半钢胎延续累库累库。终端车 市方面，终端乘用车 10 月销量同环比下滑，需求端利多驱动不 足。前 9 个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量累计同比小幅增长。随着后 续天气转冷，需求存在转弱预期。库存方面，上周上期所库存 较上周小幅下降；中国天然橡胶社会库存和青岛总库存环比均 小幅回升，其中青岛一般贸易库存累库幅度较大。 总体来看， ...

震荡上涨行情下 从基本面看，供应阶段性偏紧，带动原料价格稳步上涨，天胶市场利多支撑犹存。整体上，市场情绪偏 乐观，投资者可根据自身风险偏好与持仓情况，运用期权组合策略进行稳健布局。 近半年来，受宏观面消息影响，天胶期货持续宽幅震荡，为降低交易波动风险，投资者可考虑采用期权 策略降本增效。 [原料价格坚挺支撑胶价] 按照全球橡胶主产国的年度割胶规律：11月，泰国、马来西亚和越南处于天胶旺产期，中国云南则在当 月下旬进入停割期；12月，仅泰国、马来西亚仍维持旺产，越南进入产胶过渡期，中国海南同步进入停 割期。基于这一全球产胶节奏，理论上12月全球天胶产量将环比减少，国内对天胶供应的进口依赖度也 会随之提升。 天气因素与国内产胶低利润，共同抑制了割胶与供应。尽管当前全球橡胶主产国已脱离降雨高峰季，但 仍受拉尼娜现象影响。11月 13日，美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）披露，拉尼娜现象有望持续 至北半球冬季，最可能在2026年1月至3月过渡到厄尔尼诺——南方涛动（ENSO）中性状态（概率 61%）。拉尼娜现象会引发多雨、洪涝天气，不利于割胶作业，拖累阶段性新胶上量，具体影响程度需 视产区降雨强度而定。另外，国内频 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the raw material side of the natural rubber market was firm, and rubber prices rebounded slightly. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, while factories were cautious about restocking. The futures market showed a volatile and strengthening pattern, and the spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted within a narrow range. The trading volume of real orders was light [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's raw material prices are stable, and the region is expected to enter the non - tapping season by the end of this month. Hainan's weather is favorable for tapping, and local factories are still offering higher prices for raw materials. The total inventory in Qingdao ports is still increasing, but the rate has slowed down. The bonded warehouse has a slight reduction in inventory, while the general trade warehouse continues to accumulate inventory. In the short term, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao may still be in an accumulation state [6]. - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' production capacity utilization rates fluctuated slightly, while some full - steel tire enterprises had maintenance plans, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected to decline further next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15570 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12000 - 12600 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The raw material side of the natural rubber market was firm, and rubber prices rebounded slightly. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, and the futures market was volatile and strengthening. The spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted within a narrow range, and real - order trading was light [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan is expected to enter the non - tapping season by the end of the month, while Hainan's tapping is progressing well. Qingdao's inventory is still accumulating, but the rate has slowed. The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire enterprises may decline further [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15570, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12000 - 12600 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 1.47% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber rose by 1.91% week - on - week [9]. - As of November 14, the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 85, and the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - grade rubber was - 30 [19]. - As of November 14, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 108470 tons, a decrease of 10500 tons from last week; the 20 - grade rubber warehouse receipts were 49695 tons, an increase of 1109 tons from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - As of November 13, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - As of November 13, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 798 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of November 13, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56.3 (+0) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.1 (+0.2) Thai baht/kg. As of November 14, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5.4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18 US dollars/ton from last week [37]. - As of November 13, the latex price in Yunnan was 14000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14300 yuan/ton, the same as last week [40]. - **Import Volume** - In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 59.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 471.72 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [43]. - **Inventory in Qingdao** - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 44.95 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded area inventory was 6.78 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.60% [47]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [50]. - **Tire Exports**: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 68.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57 and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 639.08 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [54]. - **Domestic Heavy - Truck Sales**: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [57]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No information provided.