2025 年 8 月 27 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金、焦煤、天然橡胶期货将偏强震 荡 原油期货将震荡偏弱 豆粕、豆油期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 4490 和 4530 点，支撑位 4449 和 4425 点；IH2509 阻力位 2999 和 3030 点，支撑位 2970 和 2959 点；IC2509 阻力位 7000 和 7100 点，支撑位 6916 和 6872 点；IM2509 阻力位 755 ...

上周美糖震荡。由于前期降水不足，巴西甘蔗单产有所下降。截止到6月底，巴西中南部地区甘蔗累积单产为79.32吨/公顷，同 比下降11.04%。另外，今年生产进度也偏慢，导致甘蔗和食糖产量同比明显下降。不过，今年的甘蔗制糖比例同比继续增加， 而且从糖醇比价来看，比值依然处于历史震荡区间上沿，美糖上方仍面临一定压力。国内方面，郑糖震荡。产销方面，今年销 售节奏较快，库存同比减少，现货压力相对较轻。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易重心转向进口和下榨季的估产。今年搪浆进口 量大幅减少,国产糖的销售压力较小。不过,25/26榨季的产量预期存在不确定性,如果后期降雨不足可能会导致减产，关注后 续天气情况和甘蔗长势。 (苹果) 期价震荡。早熟苹果价格基本持稳、好货价格较高，客商采购积极性较好。冷库苹果方面，剩余货量不多，市场需求一般。库 存方面,卓创的数据显示,截止到8月22日,全国冷库苹果库存为40.42万吨,同比成少51.84%。上周全国冷库苹果去阵量为 5.71万吨，同比下降21.13%。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易重心转向新李度的估产。今年西部产区受到实潮和花期大风的影 响，但是低温对产量的影响不太,主要增加了果锈的风险。另 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of various futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. Based on macro - fundamental and technical analyses, it predicts the price trends of major futures contracts on August 25, 2025, and also analyzes the market conditions on August 22, 2025, along with the expected trends for the month of August 2025 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast for August 25, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4500 and 4550 points, and support levels at 4394 and 4360 points [2][31]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2512 and the thirty - year treasury bond futures contract TL2512 are likely to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2510 is likely to fluctuate with an upward bias, and silver futures contract AG2510 is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures contracts, such as CU2510, AL2510, etc., are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [3]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures contract SC2510 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, while fuel oil futures contract FU2510 is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [6][7]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Contracts like M2601 are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, while Y2601 is likely to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.2 Market Conditions on August 22, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 22, major stock index futures contracts, such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509, opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and showed strong upward momentum. The A - share market also performed strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.45% to 3825.76 points [19][26]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 22, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2512 opened slightly lower, fluctuated weakly, and closed at 107.660 yuan, down 0.18% [46]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2510 opened slightly higher, rebounded and then declined, closing at 773.40 yuan/gram, down 0.36%. Silver futures contract AG2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 9192 yuan/kilogram, up 0.36% [52][57]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures contracts showed different degrees of upward or downward fluctuations. For example, copper futures contract CU2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 78650 yuan/ton, up 0.10% [63]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures contract SC2510 opened slightly lower, fluctuated slightly upward, and closed at 493.6 yuan/barrel, up 1.42%. Fuel oil futures contract FU2510 opened slightly lower, fluctuated upward, and closed at 2779 yuan/ton, up 2.47% [126][130]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Contracts like M2601 opened slightly higher and fluctuated downward, while Y2601 opened flat, fluctuated upward, and closed at 8458 yuan/ton, up 0.64% [138][141]. 3.3 Expected Trends for August 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Different stock index futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as IF and IH being likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation, while IC and IM are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [30]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts are expected to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation [46][50]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures are likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, and silver futures are expected to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation [52][58]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures contracts are expected to have a wide - range or strong - wide - range fluctuation [63][69]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures are likely to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation, and fuel oil futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [126][130]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Different agricultural product futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as M2601 being likely to fluctuate with an upward bias, and Y2601 being likely to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.4 Macro - news and Trading Tips - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, 2025 [8]. - The central bank will conduct a 6000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on August 25, 2025, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan this month [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments jointly issued a document to regulate the rare - earth industry [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments solicited public opinions on the "Rules for Internet Platform Price Behaviors" [9].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周多空因素交织，胶价上行幅度受限。进口胶市场报盘重心上移，贸易商轮换为主， 贸易商补货，下游工厂买盘积极，实单成交价格买涨。国产天然橡胶现货报盘跟随盘面上调，持 货商报盘积极性尚可，下游买盘热情一般，维持刚需采购，盘中实单跟进有限。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区处于割胶期，云南产区受天气干扰，原料供应持续偏紧，收购价格 维持坚挺；海南产区天气情况良好，割胶作业陆续开展，岛内原料呈现正常季节性产出，由于未 来产区将有台风天气来袭，为保证自身生产及交单需求，部分加工厂对原料维持加价抢收状态。 近期青岛港口现货总库存延续去库态势，保税库累库，一般贸易库呈现继续去库。海外货源到港 入库量呈现环比增加趋势，但胶价波动较大使得胎企采购积极性明显减弱，多数以消化库存为主， 一般贸易出库量环比缩窄。需求方面，本周国内轮胎产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools such as the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 21, 2025. It anticipates that stock index futures will show a relatively strong oscillation, while some commodity futures like gold, silver, and others will also have specific trends including strong oscillation, wide - range oscillation, or weak oscillation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - Stock index futures (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) are expected to have a relatively strong oscillation. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4300 and 4330 points and support levels at 4270 and 4244 points [2]. - Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures (T2509, TL2509) are likely to have a weak and wide - range oscillation, with T2509 expected to test support levels at 109.95 and 107.91 yuan and resistance levels at 108.12 and 108.19 yuan [2]. - Gold (AU2510) and silver (AG2510) futures are predicted to have a relatively strong oscillation. AU2510 will attack resistance levels at 777.3 and 779.5 yuan/gram, with support levels at 775.5 and 773.3 yuan/gram [2]. - Copper (CU2510) futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 78400 and 78200 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78800 and 79000 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina (AO2601), industrial silicon (SI2511), polycrystalline silicon (PS2511), and other futures have their own expected trends and support/resistance levels [3]. Macro News and Trading Tips - China has a series of policy - related news, such as the promotion of major projects in Tibet, the support for the biomedical industry, and the regulation of PPP projects [7][8]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes show that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with differences in views on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs [9]. - The US federal budget deficit is expected to reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, higher than previous forecasts [9]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On August 20, 2025, major stock index futures contracts (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) showed a trend of opening slightly lower, then rising after a decline. For example, IF2509 closed at 4270.0 points, up 1.16% [13]. - The A - share market showed a strong rebound in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new ten - year high. The securities sector has performed well since August, and the scale of securities ETFs has increased significantly [15][16]. - For August 2025, different stock index futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as IF having a relatively strong and wide - range oscillation [18]. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 20, 2025, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts (T2509, TL2509) opened slightly higher, then declined after a rebound. T2509 closed at 107.855 yuan, down 0.18% [34]. - The central bank conducted 6160 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 20, with a net investment of 4975 billion yuan [35]. - The LPR remained stable in August, in line with market expectations [36]. Commodity Futures - Gold (AU2510) futures closed at 772.68 yuan/gram on August 20, 2025, down 0.35%. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in August and a relatively strong oscillation on August 21 [42]. - Silver (AG2510) futures closed at 9042 yuan/kg on August 20, 2025, down 1.86%. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in August and a relatively strong oscillation on August 21 [48]. - Other commodity futures such as copper, alumina, and industrial silicon also have their own trends on August 20 and expected trends for August and August 21 [51][56][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows complex trends across various sectors including agriculture, energy - chemical, industrial metals, and options - finance. Different factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events influence the prices and trading strategies of different products [7][11][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the exemption of personal income tax on child - rearing subsidies starting from January 1, 2025 [7]. - China's new - period LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5%, in line with market expectations [7]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes revealed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were disagreements on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [7]. - Trump called on Fed理事Cook to resign, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA director accused Cook of mortgage fraud [8]. - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of stability, development, ecology, and border - strengthening in Tibet and the construction of major projects [8]. - Premier Li Qiang stressed promoting the upgrading of the biomedical industry [8]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a round - table meeting with foreign - funded enterprises in the Pearl River Delta [8]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration plans to introduce the "Administrative Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans" to boost industrial transformation [9]. - In July, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.35, down 4.9% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year, with inventory below the warning line but above the reasonable range [9]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: On August 20, the sugar main contract closed at 5676 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range oscillation. Brazil's production decline provided support, but concentrated imports pressured the spot market. The domestic inventory pressure is light, but the de - stocking process is slow. The price is expected to oscillate, with key support at 5650 yuan [11]. - Corn: On August 20, the corn main contract closed at 2170 yuan/ton, breaking through the previous support at 2180 yuan. New grain supply pressure and import increases affected the market. Feed consumption was suppressed, but deep - processing profits improved. A bearish operation is recommended, with new support at around 2140 yuan [11]. - Live Pigs: The national live - pig price was stable. Supply - side resistance to price drops and improved demand due to cooler weather led to a stable - to - rising price in the short - term. However, the futures market showed a bearish trend [11]. - Eggs: The national egg spot price was stable. High egg - laying hen inventory, large cold - storage stocks, and increased small - sized egg supply weakened the price increase momentum. A strategy of shorting on rebounds and inter - month arbitrage is recommended [11]. - Cotton: The international cotton market has sufficient supply. In the domestic market, the approaching new - flower listing may increase supply, while the demand in the cotton yarn market is improving. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended as the price showed a weak oscillation [11][13]. 2.2 Energy - Chemical Products - Urea: The domestic urea price increased significantly, but downstream follow - up enthusiasm weakened. The industry's daily output was 19.52 tons, and inventories were rising. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, but the impact of environmental policies and high finished - product inventory need to be monitored. Pay attention to India's tender and export policies [15]. - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda in Shandong showed an upward trend. With the approaching peak demand season, a bullish strategy on dips for the 2511 contract is recommended [15]. - Coking Coal: The spot prices of coking coal and coke showed some fluctuations. The steel - coke game continued, and the high iron - water output provided support. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate [16]. 2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The copper price continued to oscillate due to a lack of new macro - drivers and increased inventory. The aluminum price is expected to adjust at a high level, waiting for the demand performance in the peak season [18][20]. - Alumina: The supply of alumina increased, and the demand was relatively stable. The spot price was weak, and the 2601 contract was running weakly. Attention should be paid to bauxite supply disruptions [20]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The spot market trading was average, and inventory data was mixed. Steel prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [20]. - Ferroalloys: The prices of ferroalloys showed a downward trend with a slowdown in decline. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations, and risk control is recommended for hedging and speculation [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate dropped sharply, breaking through the key support level. Although cost support increased, supply concerns were alleviated. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, focusing on the implementation of production - cut policies in Jiangxi [20][22]. 2.4 Options - Finance - Options: On August 20, the A - share market rose, and the trading volume of stock - index options increased. Different options showed various changes in PCR and implied volatility. Trend investors can focus on inter - variety arbitrage, and volatility investors can short volatility [24]. - Stock Indices: The A - share market showed a volatile trend. With the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10 - year high, investors' sentiment fluctuated. Different investment strategies are recommended for different types of investors, and a bullish view on the market is maintained [25][26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different futures products show diverse market trends and investment outlooks. Some products are expected to have bullish long - term trends, while others may face short - term adjustments or remain in a range - bound state. Overall, investors need to make decisions based on the specific fundamentals and market conditions of each product [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Product Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.23%, 0.03%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - **Macro - economic Data**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The national tax revenue was 11.0933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 2.4906 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, among which securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5% [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.50%, 1.19%, 0.13%, and 0.03% respectively [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is at a low level, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 775.06, a decline of 0.33%, and the night - session closing price was 772.61. The closing price of the silver main contract was 9,187, a decline of 0.77%, and the night - session closing price was 9061 [11]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. Policy changes are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price will return to the industrial supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The current price still has bullish support due to policy - related supply reductions. In the short term, they may continue to adjust, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell. The short - term demand has a slight increase, but the supply is still excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [19][20]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low. Trump's arrangement of a tri - party meeting and CFTC data showing a net short position indicate that the crude oil price may be weak. The main contract should be put on hold for now [21][22][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The Asian fuel oil spot market has sufficient supply, and the market shows mixed signals of improvement. The main contract strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [25][26]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose. Losses have led to reduced supply, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The macro - market sentiment has improved, and there are supply - side disturbances. Consider going long after a pullback [29][30]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited, and it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [31][32]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose. The market expects relaxed export restrictions to India. In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the medium term, it should be treated bullishly [33][34]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose. In the short term, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and the cost and demand support are insufficient. It may oscillate and adjust. Consider range - bound operations [35]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. In the short term, the processing fee is under pressure, supply may decrease, demand improves slightly, and the cost support is weak. It may oscillate and be sorted out. Consider range - bound participation [36][37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol rose. In the short term, the supply increase may suppress the market, but overseas device maintenance may reduce imports. Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. In the short term, the supply remains at a relatively high level, demand improves, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may follow the cost to oscillate [39][40]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. Raw material prices oscillate, and there are more device overhauls. The market is supported, but the main logic lies in the cost end, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [41]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply is increasing, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate lightly and stably in the short term. Pay attention to controlling positions [42][43]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass fell. The production line is stable, inventory reduction has slowed down, and downstream demand is weak. In the short term, go short at high levels, and pay attention to controlling positions [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda fell. Supply fluctuates little, and demand is under pressure. The price is expected to be weak in the short term [45][46]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp fell. Supply contraction expectations dominate, but demand improvement is uncertain. The high inventory and macro - sentiment are in a game. [47][48] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The trading logic has shifted to policy - related and mining - license events. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and investors should operate with a light position and control risks [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The import window is open, and downstream consumption is average. There is a shortage of copper concentrate, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Consider going long on the main contract [51][52][53]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is tight, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate [54]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and it is expected to oscillate [55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the cost support is enhanced. Consider exiting long positions at high levels and then looking for long - position opportunities at support levels [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices have fluctuations. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is high. Consider holding long positions with a light position [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. China's import sources may change, and the inventory of related products is at a high level. Consider reducing and holding long positions [61][63]. - **Cotton**: Domestic and foreign cotton prices show different trends. The US cotton supply - demand report is bullish, but the domestic textile export is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [64][66]. - **Sugar**: Domestic and foreign sugar production and import data show different situations. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Apples**: Apple futures fell slightly. The expected reduction in production has been falsified, and the market is expected to produce a small increase. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71][72]. - **Hogs**: The national average price of hogs rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and demand is weak in the short term. Consider an inverse spread strategy [73][75][76]. - **Eggs**: The average price of eggs remained stable. The supply is increasing, and consumption is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [77][78]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. The short - term supply - demand tends to balance, but the new - season corn has a strong production expectation. It is recommended to wait and see, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of logs fell. The spot market has improved, and the demand is slightly better than the arrival volume. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [81][84].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 18, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News and Trading Tips - An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes promoting the healthy and high - quality development of the private economy [8]. - China's economic data for July shows that industrial added - value and consumer spending increased year - on - year, while real estate investment declined [8]. - National housing price data in July shows that prices in most cities decreased month - on - month, and the number of cities with rising prices decreased [9]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to promote a reasonable rise in prices [10]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is promoting a "penetrating" supervision system [10]. - China sues Canada at the WTO over import restrictions on steel products [10]. - The upcoming National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday will have an 8 - day holiday, and tolls for small passenger cars will be waived [11]. - Hong Kong's financial secretary believes that the economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities [12]. - KPMG China believes that the central government has room to increase fiscal spending, and policies may be re - arranged in the fourth quarter [12]. - Trump has no plan to impose tariffs on Chinese products due to China's purchase of Russian oil [12]. - Trump and Putin met in Alaska, and significant progress was made in the Russia - Ukraine issue [13]. - The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and plans to impose tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors [15]. - The US trade negotiation representative cancelled the trip to India, and the hope of reaching an agreement before the deadline was dashed [15]. - Some Fed officials are hesitant about interest rate cuts due to inflation data and tariff uncertainties [15]. - US retail sales increased in July, but consumer confidence declined in August [15][16]. - China's soybean imports are mainly from South America during the peak export season [17]. - Japan's GDP grew in the second quarter [17]. Commodity Futures - related Information - The CSRC approved the registration of offset printing paper futures and options, as well as fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp options [17]. - On the night of August 15, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with palm oil, coking coal, and other products leading the gains [18]. - The global physical gold ETF had an inflow of $3.2 billion in July, and the total asset management scale reached a record high [20]. - On August 15, international precious metal futures, crude oil futures, and some base metal futures closed lower, while agricultural product futures on the CBOT closed higher [20][21][22]. - China's foreign exchange market was stable in July, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated [22][23]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different trends, with most of them rising. It is expected that on August 18, stock index futures will show a strong and volatile trend [23][24][25]. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures declined. It is expected that on August 18, they will show a weak and volatile trend [50][54]. Precious Metal Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of gold and silver futures declined. It is expected that on August 18, gold futures will show a weak and volatile trend, and silver futures will show a volatile and consolidating trend [56][62]. Base Metal Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures showed different trends. It is expected that on August 18, copper futures will show a volatile and consolidating trend, aluminum futures will show a weak and volatile trend, and alumina futures will show a strong and volatile trend [67][73][78]. Energy Futures - On August 15, the main contract of crude oil futures rose slightly. It is expected that on August 18, it will show a weak and volatile trend [118]. Agricultural Product Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of most agricultural product futures showed different trends. It is expected that on August 18, most of them will show a strong and volatile trend, while natural rubber futures will show a weak and volatile trend [129][131][142].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - Crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe the main crude oil contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, it is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [26]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [28]. - For natural rubber, consider going long after a pull - back [31]. - PVC will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. - Urea will fluctuate in the short - term and is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [35]. - PX will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. - PTA may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. - Ethylene glycol may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs in the short - term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. - Bottle - grade chips are expected to fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - For soda ash, pay attention to controlling positions due to the increase in supply and weak demand [42]. - For glass, go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances before contract roll - over [43]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to the impact of imported ore on consumption and prices [45]. - For pulp, the supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability, and there is a game between high inventory and macro - sentiment [47]. - For lithium carbonate, the trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [49]. - For copper, pay attention to buying opportunities for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. - Tin and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [54][55]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [57]. - For palm oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them [62]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [65]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, showing interval - based fluctuations [69][70]. - Apple futures are expected to be affected by increased production [71]. - For live pigs, consider a reverse - spread strategy [74]. - For eggs, consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [77]. - Corn prices have support at lower levels in the short - term and pressure at higher levels, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - Log prices are expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 238 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 116 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long [8][9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US retail sales data was stable, and the "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly declined. Policy changes dominate the market in the short - term, and the prices are expected to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - term. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly pulled back. Policy is the dominant factor, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The high demand for hot metal supports prices, but the supply has increased. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and sorted. Policy affects supply, and prices may continue to adjust in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. Manganese ore supply and prices have changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The supply is excessive, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels [19][20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upwards and was blocked by the 5 - day moving average. The "Double - Putin" talks and CFTC data indicate that crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe [21][22]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market shows signs of improvement, but the supply in Singapore is still excessive. It is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Losses have increased, supply has decreased, and the market sentiment is positive. Wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment has warmed up, and supply - side disruptions continue. Consider going long after a pull - back [29][31]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. It will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures closed flat. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it will fluctuate. It is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [33][35]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply has increased, and the cost support is weak. It will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has slightly increased, demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weak. It may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply has increased, and the port inventory has accumulated. It may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may fluctuate with costs in the short - term [39]. Bottle - Grade Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures rose. The supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand has recovered. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [40][41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline. Pay attention to controlling positions [42]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures declined. The inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and demand is weak. Go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances [43]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. Supply has little change, and inventory has decreased. The use of imported ore may affect consumption and prices, and the price is expected to stabilize [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures rose slightly. The supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability. The inventory is high, and the price rebound space is limited [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [48][49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper slightly fluctuated. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Pay attention to buying opportunities [51][52]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The ore supply is tight, and the market expects the tin ore to resume production in the fourth quarter. The supply is still in short supply, and the price is expected to fluctuate [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The ore price has weakened, the inventory has increased, and the demand is weak. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures declined. The USDA report lowered the US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean supply is loose, and the import cost has increased. Consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [56][57]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose. The export volume in the first half of August increased. The domestic palm oil inventory has accumulated. Consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China imposed anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed supply may be tight in the short - term. Consider reducing long positions and holding them [61][62]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The US and global cotton supply - demand reports were favorable. The domestic cotton inventory has decreased, and textile exports have declined. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [63][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production has accelerated, and Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic inventory is low, but imports will be high before October. It is recommended to observe [67][69]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The expected apple production increase has been confirmed. The inventory has decreased, and the price of early - maturing apples has declined [71]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average live - pig price declined. The supply in the north has increased, and the price is expected to be observed. The supply in the south is stable. The supply will increase in August, and it is advisable to consider a reverse - spread strategy [73][74]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the egg price rose slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory has increased. The supply in August is expected to increase, and consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][77]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The new - season corn is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the price has pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market [78][80]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures rose. The expected arrival of New Zealand logs has decreased, and the inventory has declined. The trading volume has increased, and the price is expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [81][83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond market is expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, after a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss - making range again [22][23]. - For crude oil, the main contract should be put on hold for the time being [26]. - For fuel oil, the main contract should be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [28]. - For synthetic rubber, investors should wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][30]. - For natural rubber, investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities after a correction [32][33]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [34][36]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [37][38]. - PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [39]. - PTA is expected to have some support below in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [40][42]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for interval trading in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [43]. - Short - fiber is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate with costs, and risk control is necessary [45]. - Soda ash is expected to have high - level adjustments in supply, and attention should be paid to controlling positions [46]. - Glass is recommended for short - selling in the short term, and attention should be paid to controlling positions [47]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a stable and narrow - range adjustment in price, and the market will gradually return to the logic of stable spot prices [48][49]. - Pulp is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in the short term [51][52]. - Lithium carbonate trading is complex, and it is recommended that non - participants operate with a light position and control risks [53]. - For copper, investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities [55][57]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate [58]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate [59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors should consider exiting long positions at high levels and then look for long - position opportunities at support levels [60][61]. - For palm oil, long - position holders should consider reducing positions [62][64]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, long - position holders should consider reducing positions [65][66]. - Cotton is expected to be strong in price [67][69]. - Sugar is recommended for on - the - sidelines observation [70][71]. - Apples are recommended for on - the - sidelines observation [73][75]. - For live pigs, an inverse spread strategy is recommended [76][77]. - For eggs, a 9 - 10 inverse spread strategy is recommended [78][79]. - For corn and starch, the near - month contract of corn has support at low levels, and starch follows the corn market [80][81]. - Logs are expected to have some support for bullish sentiment in the short term [82][84]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan on the day. China's macro - economic data in July showed that M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and M0 increased by 11.8%. The increase in RMB loans in the first seven months was 12.87 trillion yuan, and the increase in RMB deposits was 18.44 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond market is expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. 2. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 1.02%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.35%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 1.78%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.77% [8]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. 3. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 777.72, up 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 777.1; the closing price of the silver main contract was 9,300, up 1.23%, and the night - session closing price was 9318. The US Treasury Secretary speculated that the Fed might cut interest rates, and the global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, providing a new driving force for gold [11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 4. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. The latest price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 3080 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3240 - 3370 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3490 - 3500 yuan/ton. Policy changes are the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price of finished products is expected to return to the logic of industrial supply and demand. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. The steel industry's stable - growth policy may be a positive factor [13][14]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. 5. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot price of PB fines at the port was 788 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special fines was 660 yuan/ton. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The daily output of hot metal remains above 2.4 million tons, supporting the iron ore price. Although the import volume of iron ore has increased significantly since April, the import volume and domestic output in the first half of the year decreased year - on - year, and the port inventory is lower than last year. The supply - demand pattern is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term [16]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17]. 6. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures回调 significantly. On Wednesday night, affected by the position - limit measures of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The policy of coal production verification has affected the supply, and some coal mines have stopped production, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in coking coal supply [18][19]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [19][20]. 7. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contract of manganese silicon closed down 0.65% to 6074 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon iron closed down 1.02% to 5794 yuan/ton. The spot price of manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The shipping volume of manganese ore from Gabon decreased, and the supply of Australian ore increased, with the port manganese ore inventory rising slightly to 4.49 million tons. The output of rebar by sample building material steel mills increased slightly, and the output of ferroalloys continued to rise, but the demand recovery was weak, and the supply was still high. The high inventory of warrants exerts pressure on the spot and futures markets [21]. - After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss - making range again [22][23]. 8. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low in recent days. The CFTC data showed that speculators reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The Baker Hughes report showed that the total number of US oil and gas rigs decreased by 1. The IEA monthly report raised the global oil supply growth forecast and lowered the global oil demand growth forecast, and it is expected that there will be a record - high oil supply surplus next year [24]. - The market focus has shifted to the US - Russia talks, and geopolitical risks have eased. The IEA monthly report is negative for crude oil prices. The main contract of crude oil should be put on hold for the time being [25][26]. 9. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward, and its trend remained weak. The downstream demand in the Asian fuel oil market continued to be weak, and the expected increase in Western arbitrage inflows pressured the low - sulfur fuel oil market. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia was sufficient, and the power plant demand decreased. In the Singapore spot market, the trading was difficult to conclude due to the large gap between buyers' and sellers' quotes [27]. - The main contract of fuel oil should be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [28]. 10. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber closed down 0.13%. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable at 11850 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The supply decreased due to increased losses, the macro - sentiment was positive, and the market stabilized. The price of butadiene oscillated, and the processing of synthetic rubber was in a loss. The weekly capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber industry fell to around 68%. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The manufacturer's inventory decreased month - on - month, and the trader's inventory increased month - on - month [29]. - Investors should wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][30]. 11. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.13%, and the main contract of 20 - grade rubber fell 0.08%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable at around 14400 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The macro - market sentiment improved, and there were continued disturbances on the supply side, with the market stabilizing and rising. Heavy rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas affected rubber tapping, and the raw material purchase price continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The natural rubber inventory in China decreased this week, with both dark and light rubber inventories falling. It is estimated that Thailand's rubber production will increase by 2% to 4.89 million tons in 2025 [31][32]. - Investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities after a correction [32][33]. 12. PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC closed down 0.38%, the spot price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The oversupply situation of PVC continued, but the room for further decline was limited, and it continued to fluctuate at the bottom. The number of domestic PVC enterprises under maintenance decreased week - on - week, and the supply increased. The operating rates of the main downstream pipe and profile industries continued to decline, and the operating rates of other products were relatively stable. The cost and profit were mainly affected by raw materials. Currently, the raw material price fell, while the PVC price rose slightly, and the PVC profit improved. The social inventory of PVC increased by 7.49% week - on - week to 7.763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.52% [34][35]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [34][36]. 13. Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea closed flat. The price in Linyi, Shandong remained stable at 1720 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. In the short term, the fundamentals changed little, and the market oscillated. In the medium term, a bullish view was maintained. The supply side saw a slight decline in the overall industry operating rate, but the supply remained at a high level. The main downstream compound fertilizer for autumn was in the production season, and the operating rate increased steadily. The operating rate of melamine decreased slightly. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 887,600 tons, lower than expected last week, and the inventory of urea ports was 483,000 tons, higher than expected last week [37][38]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [37][38]. 14. PX - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2509 fell 0.35%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 120 US dollars/ton. The PX operating rate rose slightly to 82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. Some refineries increased their loads or restarted. In June, the total import volume of PX in the Chinese mainland was about 765,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 34.4%. The international oil price oscillated weakly [39]. - PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [39]. 15. PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2509 fell 0.55%. The spot price in East China was 4695 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.06%. Some PTA plants restarted or reduced their loads, with the PTA operating rate at 76.2%. The operating rate of polyester increased to 88.8%. The profit of PTA processing improved slightly to around 200 yuan/ton [40]. - PTA is expected to have some support below in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [40][42]. 16. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell 0.47%. The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 68.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The operating rate of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method increased by 0.14%. The inventory at the main ports in East China was about 553,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37,000 tons. The planned arrival volume at the main ports from August 11 to August 17 was about 141,000 tons. The downstream polyester operating rate was adjusted to 88.8%, and the operating rate of terminal looms was adjusted locally [43]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for interval trading in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [43]. 17. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2510 fell 0.22%. The operating rate of short - fiber plants rose to around 90.6%. The sales of polyester yarn improved, and the operating rates of downstream drawing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 70%, 59%, and 65% respectively. The raw material inventory of terminal factories in Jiangsu and