1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2609 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,200 - 16,800 in the short - term, and the nr2606 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short - term [2] - The overall inventory of Qingdao Port has slightly increased, with the bonded warehouse showing de - stocking and the general trade warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory. The rubber price fluctuates, and downstream tire factories make cautious replenishments for mixed rubber [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. Some enterprises' pursuit of quarterly tasks supports the overall capacity utilization rate, but short - term maintenance arrangements of individual enterprises may slightly drag it down [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,345 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan [2] - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan [2] - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 71,598 lots, a decrease of 9,869 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 38,489 lots, a decrease of 4,554 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 28,303 lots, a decrease of 516 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8,770 lots, an increase of 522 lots [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 125,410 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 43,545 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 18,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 740 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,932 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 87 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 78.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.99 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 71.05 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.05 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 79.5 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 16 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 139,600 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 242,400 tons, a decrease of 103,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly starting rate of all - steel tires is 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the weekly starting rate of semi - steel tires is 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 19.3%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 21.89%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 27.9%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 27.9%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month [2] - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a 0.85% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a 1.62% decrease; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, a 1.38% increase [2] - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a 0.05 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 1.18 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 3.88 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [2] 3.7 Weather Conditions - In the first week of the future (March 29 - April 4, 2026), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared with the previous period. There is no red area north of the equator, and the precipitation in most other areas is low, with a weak impact on tapping. South of the equator, the red area is mainly concentrated in western Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, with an enhanced impact on tapping [2] 3.8 Regional Production Situation - In the Yunnan Banna area in China, the weather is sunny, the glue prices are quoted differently, and there are signs of raw material grabbing. The Hainan area has started the new - year tapping season. In some southern and western areas, tapping has started sporadically, but the continuous high - temperature weather has restricted the tapping operation and glue output. Attention should be paid to the weather and rubber tree growth conditions at the beginning of tapping [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Recent weather has little impact, and domestic rubber tapping is expected to proceed smoothly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 This Week's Important Weather Warnings 3.1.1 Long - term Climate Dynamics - The Nino3.4 index is 0.2 (+0.2), in a neutral state. There is over a 40% probability of a weak El Niño phenomenon from May to August, and the probability increases to 60% from September to October, with the intensity possibly strengthening significantly compared to the prediction at the beginning of the year. The El Niño may reduce rainfall in the western Pacific surrounding production areas and increase the risk of high - temperature drought [1] - The DMI index of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has turned negative to - 0.13, weakening rainfall around Indonesia [1] - The Madden - Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the 7th stage area, remaining weak. It may strengthen in mid - April and develop towards the 8th stage, with increased precipitation in West African production areas and no impact on Southeast Asian production areas [1] 3.1.2 Production Areas' Conditions - **China**: Yunnan's tapping range has expanded, with smooth trial tapping and good glue output, 7 - 10 days earlier than usual. Hainan has good phenological conditions, with the western line starting trial tapping and the southern tapping range expanding, 1 - 2 weeks earlier than usual. Thailand's northern and northeastern regions are mostly in the non - tapping period, and the southern region has low drought risk after recent rainfall but needs to be monitored for high - temperature and low - rainfall problems from April to June. Vietnam is in the non - tapping period and is expected to start trial tapping next week [2] - **Indochina Peninsula**: Cambodia is in the non - tapping period with normal phenological conditions. Myanmar's central region has normal weather, while the southern region has less rainfall and needs to be vigilant against high - temperature drought. Laos has started trial tapping, but early - stage glue production may be limited due to limited rainfall and high - temperature weather [5] - **Malay Archipelago**: Indonesia has less cumulative rainfall than the historical average this year. Malaysia's Malay Peninsula has had less precipitation in the first quarter, and the production area is in the leaf - falling period. The Philippines' Mindanao region has normal rainfall in late March, and the production area is in the low - yield season [7] - **South Asia**: India's northeastern region is in the non - tapping season with high - temperature and continuous rainy weather, increasing the risk of diseases such as powdery mildew. The southwestern region is approaching the end of the tapping season. Sri Lanka has intermittent rainfall and normal weather [7] - **West Africa**: Côte d'Ivoire is mostly in the non - tapping period during the dry season and is expected to start a new production season at the end of April. Rainfall from February to March was close to normal, and recent heavy rainfall has improved soil moisture [7] 3.2 Production Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides detailed rainfall data for various production areas, including monthly cumulative precipitation, year - on - year percentage change, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly difference, distance from the average, and forecast precipitation for this week and the next week [6][8] 3.3 Production Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - There is no impact from tropical depressions and no flood disasters. Thailand's main production areas have no flood risk, with most river water levels remaining low. The risk of drought and fire is low, but attention should be paid to northeastern Thailand, southern Myanmar, and the Laos production area [9] 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Production Area - The report provides precipitation and soil humidity forecast maps, as well as various meteorological indicator tracking data such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomaly, temperature comparison, and average wind speed for production areas in China, Indochina Peninsula, Malay Archipelago, South Asia, and West Africa [11][49][106][138][163] 3.5 Appendix 3.5.1 Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas - Global natural rubber is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%, with Thailand's planting area accounting for about 1/4, Indonesia about 1/5, and the rest being more dispersed. In terms of yield, Thailand accounts for over 30% of the global total, Indonesia 15%, and Côte d'Ivoire over 10% [183] 3.5.2 Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber and the Impact of Weather - The phenological period of rubber trees includes "leaf - falling period - budding period - bronze period - light - green period - stable period (aging period)". New leaves are most sensitive to weather and natural disasters before maturity, and are also vulnerable to diseases and pests. Long - term natural rubber production mainly depends on planting area and tree - age structure, while short - term production is more affected by weather factors [191] 3.5.3 Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas - The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with a high - yield period from September to November and a low - yield period from February to March. Due to geographical and climatic differences, the focus of weather factors to be monitored varies in different production areas. The non - tapping time is postponed from high - latitude to low - latitude areas and the duration shortens [193]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The long - term upward logic of natural rubber remains unchanged. In the second quarter, the supply - demand structure may keep it in a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, but price fluctuations may widen due to overseas macro and synthetic rubber price uncertainties [114]. - The price of synthetic rubber in the second quarter mainly depends on the overall atmosphere of the energy - chemical sector and cost - side transmission. As long as the crude oil price does not significantly decline, the BR futures price is still expected to be strong [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rubber - related Variety Disk Trends - As of March 26, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,460 yuan/ton, with a quarterly increase of 4.24%. The quarterly high was 17,600 yuan/ton, and the quarterly low was 15,525 yuan/ton [8]. - The closing price of the NR main contract was 13,635 yuan/ton, with a quarterly increase of 6.48%. The quarterly high was 14,110 yuan/ton, and the quarterly low was 12,465 yuan/ton [8]. - The closing price of the BR main contract was 17,975 yuan/ton, with a quarterly increase of 54.36%. The quarterly high was 18,265 yuan/ton, and the quarterly low was 11,420 yuan/ton [8]. Supply Situation - In the second quarter, the Yunnan, Hainan, and Vietnam rubber - producing areas will enter the new tapping season. The current phenological conditions are suitable for natural rubber raw material supply. The Thai production area will fully stop tapping from March to April and resume tapping after the Songkran Festival from late April to early May [11]. - The ENSO report indicates that the La Nina phenomenon persisted in February 2026. It is expected to transition to the ENSO neutral state next month, which will last until May - July 2026 (probability of 55%). There is a 62% probability that the El Nino phenomenon will reappear from June - August 2026 and last at least until the end of 2026. El Nino may affect rubber production in Southeast Asia [18]. - ANRPC's January 2026 report predicts that the global natural rubber production in 2026 will increase by 2.2% year - on - year to 15.324 billion tons, with different growth or decline rates in each country [31]. Demand Situation - ANRPC's January 2026 report predicts that the global natural rubber consumption in 2026 will increase by 1.4% year - on - year to 15.602 billion tons, with different growth or decline rates in each country [41]. - From January - February 2026, China's automobile production and sales decreased year - on - year, but the export continued to grow strongly. The cumulative export volume was 1.55 million vehicles, a 61% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [62]. - From January - February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 730,100 tons, a 13.07% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 543,200 tons, an 8.42% year - on - year increase [70][71]. Inventory Situation - The domestic natural rubber inventory shows signs of a turning point, and it is expected to enter the seasonal de - stocking period in the second quarter. The current high inventory level makes the de - stocking speed an important leading indicator for judging supply - demand changes [113]. - The synthetic rubber inventory is at a relatively high historical level, but due to the tightening supply, the inventory digestion speed is expected to accelerate [116]. Cost and Profit Situation - The high cost of synthetic rubber may lead to continued significant losses, which will cause the operating rate of synthetic rubber enterprises to decline passively [115]. - The cost of raw materials and the de - stocking situation will affect the cost - profit performance of rubber products [113][116]. Strategy Suggestions - For natural rubber futures, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish, open positions close to technical supports, and pay attention to position management. Enterprises should control hedging positions [114]. - For synthetic rubber futures, it is recommended to view them as strong as long as the crude oil price does not significantly decline [116]. - For rubber options, consider constructing a bull spread portfolio for RU and focus on protective strategies for BR. For arbitrage, maintain the reverse arbitrage idea for RU and NR and temporarily wait and see for inter - monthly arbitrage [119].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report provides a weekly overview of futures price and volume data for various commodity categories, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, forest products, livestock products, and financial futures. It shows the weekly closing prices, price changes, 20 - day annualized volatility, volatility changes, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes of each futures variety. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: The weekly closing price was 998.66, with a weekly decline of 4.16%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 47.42%, a volatility increase of 56.31%, speculation degree of 3.36, trend degree of - 0.16, and a capital outflow of 148.28 [2]. - Silver: The weekly closing price was 17,489.00, with a weekly decline of 0.77%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 92.24%, a volatility increase of 9.26%, speculation degree of 4.69, trend degree of - 0.01, and a capital outflow of 11.14 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The weekly closing price was 95,930.00, with a weekly increase of 1.26%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 22.36%, a volatility increase of 12.87%, speculation degree of 0.78, trend degree of - 0.07, and a capital outflow of 38.01 [2]. - Nickel: The weekly closing price was 137,100.00, with a weekly increase of 2.96%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 21.07%, a volatility decrease of 16.68%, speculation degree of 2.30, trend degree of 0.09, and a capital inflow of 15.03 [2]. - Tin: The weekly closing price was 362,460.00, with a weekly increase of 5.76%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 58.97%, a volatility decrease of 21.82%, speculation degree of 10.12, trend degree of 0.04, and a capital inflow of 3.39 [2]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: The weekly closing price was 812.00, with a weekly decline of 0.43%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 15.63%, a volatility decrease of 4.06%, speculation degree of 0.60, trend degree of 0.06, and a capital inflow of 3.38 [2]. - Coke: The weekly closing price was 1,752.00, with a weekly increase of 0.66%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 32.76%, a volatility increase of 22.23%, speculation degree of 0.74, trend degree of - 0.19, and a capital inflow of 3.87 [2]. - Coking Coal: The weekly closing price was 1,219.00, with a weekly increase of 4.10%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 47.56%, a volatility increase of 44.94%, speculation degree of 2.91, trend degree of 0.02, and a capital inflow of 23.74 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The weekly closing price was 740.80, with a weekly decline of 4.24%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 119.65%, a volatility increase of 8.61%, speculation degree of 2.50, trend degree of 0.04, and a capital outflow of 33.39 [2]. - Fuel Oil LU: The weekly closing price was 4,464.00 (5,157.00), with a weekly decline of 6.14% (- 7.78%), 20 - day annualized volatility of 99.40% (106.40%), a volatility increase of 14.65% (13.49%), speculation degree of 3.11 (1.95), trend degree of 0.08 (0.01), and a capital outflow of 18.59 (7.27) [2]. - Methanol: The weekly closing price was 3,296.00, with a weekly increase of 5.24%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 80.52%, a volatility increase of 5.60%, speculation degree of 3.38, trend degree of 0.30, and a capital inflow of 16.58 [2]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The weekly closing price was 15,395.00, with a weekly increase of 1.18%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 10.10%, a volatility decrease of 38.17%, speculation degree of 0.50, trend degree of 0.21, and a capital inflow of 3.83 [2]. - Sugar: The weekly closing price was 5,464.00, with a weekly increase of 0.46%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 10.71%, a volatility decrease of 5.49%, speculation degree of 0.90, trend degree of 0.20, and a capital inflow of 2.13 [2]. - Corn: The weekly closing price was 2,369.00, with a weekly decline of 0.75%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 8.80%, a volatility increase of 35.16%, speculation degree of 0.57, trend degree of - 0.20, and a capital outflow of 0.41 [2]. Forest Products - Pulp: The weekly closing price was 5,202.00, with a weekly increase of 0.74%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 15.83%, a volatility decrease of 3.70%, speculation degree of 1.56, trend degree of 0.07, and a capital outflow of 8.97 [2]. Livestock Products - Eggs: The weekly closing price was 3,502.00, with a weekly increase of 2.73%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 17.48%, a volatility increase of 20.23%, speculation degree of 1.22, trend degree of 0.26, and a capital inflow of 2.72 [2]. - Hogs: The weekly closing price was 9,965.00, with a weekly decline of 2.50%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 17.84%, a volatility decrease of 1.77%, speculation degree of 0.80, trend degree of - 0.20, and a capital inflow of 11.64 [2]. Financial Futures - IC: The weekly closing price was 7,559.20, with no weekly change, 20 - day annualized volatility of 29.33%, a volatility increase of 20.48%, speculation degree of 0.68, trend degree of 0.05, and a capital inflow of 3.18 [4]. - IF: The weekly closing price was 4,427.40, with a weekly decline of 1.32%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 18.01%, a volatility increase of 22.49%, speculation degree of 0.44, trend degree of 0.03, and a capital outflow of 18.92 [4]. - IM: The weekly closing price was 7,523.80, with a weekly decline of 0.48%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 29.45%, a volatility increase of 33.07%, speculation degree of 0.77, trend degree of 0.04, and a capital outflow of 20.00 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the fundamentals of the natural rubber market were linked with the macro - market, and rubber prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. The offer price of imported rubber first declined and then rose, with general trading atmosphere and real - order transactions following the upward trend. The spot price of domestic natural rubber fluctuated widely, and the demand side showed no obvious improvement. [7] - Currently, the weather in the Xishuangbanna production area in Yunnan, China is good, with some areas being slightly dry. The output of fresh latex is gradually increasing, and some concentrated latex factories are competing to purchase at higher prices. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has been accumulating, with both bonded and general trade warehouses increasing. The total inbound volume at the port has increased significantly compared to the previous period. Although downstream tire factories replenish inventory at low prices, the inbound growth rate exceeds the outbound rate, and the port inventory has returned to the accumulation rhythm. It is expected that the general trade warehouse in Qingdao may continue to accumulate slightly in the short term. [7] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly. As it is the end of the quarter, some enterprises are striving to meet quarterly tasks, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. However, some enterprises may have short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, which will slightly drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. [7] - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 16,850 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 in the short term. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The fundamentals of the natural rubber market were linked with the macro - market, and rubber prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. The offer price of imported rubber first declined and then rose, with general trading atmosphere and real - order transactions following the upward trend. The spot price of domestic natural rubber fluctuated widely, and the demand side showed no obvious improvement. [7] - **Market Outlook**: The weather in Yunnan's Xishuangbanna production area is good, with some areas being slightly dry. The output of fresh latex is gradually increasing, and some concentrated latex factories are competing to purchase at higher prices. The total inventory at Qingdao Port is accumulating, and it is expected that the general trade warehouse in Qingdao may continue to accumulate slightly in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly, and some enterprises may have short - term maintenance arrangements. [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 16,850 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 in the short term. [7] 3.2. Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose oscillatingly, with a weekly increase of 3.19%; the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose oscillatingly, with a weekly increase of 6.76%. [12] - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided in the text. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of March 27, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 45, and the spread between the May and June contracts of 20 - rubber was - 65. [21] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 26, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 125,410 tons, a decrease of 30 tons compared to last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 43,949 tons, a decrease of 4,133 tons compared to last week. [27] 3.3. Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of March 26, the price of state - owned whole latex was 16,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared to last week. [33] - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of March 26, the basis of 20 - rubber was 241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 349 yuan/ton compared to last week; the non - standard basis was - 860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared to last week. [38] 3.4. Industrial Situation - **Upstream**: As of March 27, the field latex price in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 77.5 (+3) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 58.75 (+2.2) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 16 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton compared to last week. As of March 26, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,600 yuan/ton, and the output of fresh latex in Yunnan's Xishuangbanna production area is gradually increasing, with some concentrated latex factories competing to purchase at higher prices. [41][44] - **Import Quantity**: According to customs data, in February 2026, China's import volume of natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) was 461,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.29%. The cumulative import volume from January to February 2026 was 1.1065 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.36%. [48] - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons, an increase of 1.18%. The bonded area inventory was 122,100 tons, an increase of 0.66%; the general trade inventory was 563,500 tons, an increase of 1.29%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouse of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.41 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.50 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.62 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.41 percentage points. [52] - **Downstream**: As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. In February 2026, China's tire export volume was 631,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.49% and a year - on - year increase of 22.34%. The cumulative tire export volume from January to February was 1.3369 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.57%. In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared to January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8%. The cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck industry from January to February was more than 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. It is expected that the wholesale sales volume of the heavy - truck industry in March will achieve a slight year - on - year increase. [55][58][61] 3.5. Option Market Analysis - No relevant information provided

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by factors such as the Iran situation, and there are uncertainties in various sectors, with different trends and investment suggestions for each commodity [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw all - round gains in treasury bond futures. The current macro data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum is weak. The yield is at a relatively low level, and there is pressure in the later market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The asset valuation is low, and there is room for repair. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined. The global economic situation is affected by the Middle - East conflict, and inflation expectations are rising. The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper contract declined. The supply shortage logic is still strong, but the macro - environment suppresses prices. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak shock with a bottom [56]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum contract rose, and the alumina contract declined. The alumina supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the electrolytic aluminum price may be weakly volatile with support at the bottom [58]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc contract rose. The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, but the consumption is affected by the real - estate sector. The zinc price may be under pressure [61]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead contract declined. The supply and demand are both weak, and the lead price may be weakly volatile [63]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin contract declined. The supply tightness has eased, and the demand is complex. The tin price has support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [65]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel contract declined. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the consumption is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern [66]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The CFTC net long position increased, but the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market changed. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the price is expected to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber contract rose. The current main contradiction is cost - driven, and the short - term price may maintain a strong shock [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber contract rose. The market is in a game between multiple and short factors, and the short - term is in a wide - range shock [30]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC contract declined. The market is in a game between cost support and high inventory. The price is expected to be strongly volatile, but the upside space is restricted [32]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea contract rose. The current contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is weakly volatile, and the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are repaired, and the price may be in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to operate carefully [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA contract rose. The supply increases, and the downstream reduces production. The short - term is in a multi - empty game. It is recommended to operate carefully [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol contract rose. The supply and demand are affected by the geopolitical situation, and the price needs to be treated carefully [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber contract rose. The supply increases, and the demand weakens. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and device dynamics [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip contract rose. The supply and demand fundamentals change little, and it is recommended to participate carefully [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda - ash contract declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is general, and the price is expected to be in a stalemate [45]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass contract declined. The production line is shrinking, the inventory removal slows down, and the price may fluctuate repeatedly [47]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic - soda contract declined. The supply decreases slightly, the inventory does not decrease significantly, and the price is affected by exports [49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, the paper - pulp contract declined. The inventory accumulates, and the demand is weak, restricting the rebound height [52]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, the soybean - meal and soybean - oil contracts rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, the palm - oil contract rebounded. The export data is strong, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider closing long positions [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil contracts changed. The market is waiting for relevant announcements and paying attention to the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, the domestic cotton contract oscillated. The new - year global cotton is expected to reduce production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The medium - long - term price has support, but the short - term is affected by the quota issuance [72]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, the domestic sugar contract oscillated. The international situation is favorable, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term price has a bottom support [74]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, the apple contract oscillated. With the Qingming Festival approaching, the demand is released, and the market is expected to be stable and strong [76]. - **Pork**: The previous trading day, the pork contract declined. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg contract rose. The supply is improving, and it is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn contract declined, and the corn - starch contract rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch demand recovers slightly [80]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log contract rose. The inventory decreases, the downstream demand improves, and the market is affected by the geopolitical situation [82].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market volatility of various assets is expected to increase due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation. Different investment strategies are recommended for different assets, such as being cautious for bonds, temporarily staying on the sidelines for stocks and precious metals, and considering short - selling opportunities for some commodities [5][9][11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Bonds - **Performance**: The 30 - year and 2 - year Treasury futures rose 0.01% and 0.02% respectively, while the 10 - year and 5 - year contracts were flat. As of the end of February, the total installed power generation capacity was 3.95 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly [5]. - **Outlook**: The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the monetary policy is expected to be loose. The bond yield is at a relatively low level, and there is still some pressure in the future market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures rose 1.61%, 0.81%, 2.17%, and 1.73% respectively. As of the end of February, the total scale of public funds reached 38.61 trillion yuan [7]. - **Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The asset valuation is low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [9][10]. 3. Precious Metals - **Performance**: The gold and silver futures rose 3.49% and 6.01% respectively. The European Central Bank is evaluating the impact of the Iranian war [11]. - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11][12]. 4. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Performance**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and hot - rolled coil were 2980 yuan/ton, 3110 - 3230 yuan/ton, and 3280 - 3300 yuan/ton respectively [13][14]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The real estate industry is in a downward trend, but the market is entering the peak demand season. The supply pressure is reduced, and the inventory pressure is small. The price may rebound, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - buying opportunities [14][15]. 5. Iron Ore - **Performance**: The iron ore futures fell significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were 785 yuan/ton and 670 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The iron ore demand may increase, but the inventory is at a high level. The price may rebound, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - buying opportunities [16][17]. 6. Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: The coking coal and coke futures fell significantly [18]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand for coke is expected to expand. The price may continue to be strong, and investors can pay attention to low - position buying opportunities [18][19]. 7. Ferroalloys - **Performance**: The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell 1.04% and 0.36% respectively. The spot prices also declined [20]. - **Outlook**: The cost is at a low level, and the supply is loose. The overall surplus pressure continues. After the short - term price rises, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [20][21]. 8. Crude Oil - **Performance**: The INE crude oil fluctuated downward. The CFTC data showed that speculators increased their net long positions. The number of oil and gas rigs decreased [22]. - **Outlook**: The increase in net long positions indicates that the market is bullish on the future. However, the possible cease - fire between the US and Iran may lead to oil price fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23][24]. 9. Polyolefins - **Performance**: The PP and LLDPE prices in the market fell, and the market sentiment was cautious [24]. - **Outlook**: Due to the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the supply decreased. The demand was weak. The price is expected to fall, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [24][25]. 10. Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: The synthetic rubber futures rose 4.27%. The price of butadiene decreased, and the inventory began to decline [26][27]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to device maintenance, oil price trends, and tire export orders [26][27][28]. 11. Natural Rubber - **Performance**: The natural rubber futures rose. The price of Thai glue was high, and the inventory continued to increase [29]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a state of long - short game, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [29][30]. 12. PVC - **Performance**: The PVC futures fell 4.58%. The spot price decreased, and the inventory increased [31]. - **Outlook**: The cost support is strong, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to inventory changes and demand recovery [31][32][33]. 13. Urea - **Performance**: The urea futures fell 0.32%. The spot price was stable [34]. - **Outlook**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to export policies and demand connection [34][35]. 14. PX - **Performance**: The PX futures fell 3.67%. The profit and spread decreased [36]. - **Outlook**: The short - term processing fee has room for repair. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [36][37]. 15. PTA - **Performance**: The PTA futures fell 3.09%. The processing fee was around 300 yuan/ton [38]. - **Outlook**: The supply decreased, and the demand was weak. The market is in a long - short game, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [38]. 16. Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: The ethylene glycol futures fell 4.96%. The inventory increased [39]. - **Outlook**: The inventory may decrease, but the cost is uncertain. It is necessary to pay attention to negotiation progress and spring inspection [39]. 17. Short - Fiber - **Performance**: The short - fiber futures fell 2.94%. The supply decreased, and the demand was weak [40]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption [40]. 18. Bottle Chips - **Performance**: The bottle - chip futures fell 2.43%. The processing fee was around 1200 yuan/ton [41]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals change little. The processing fee is recovering, but the raw material price is uncertain. It is recommended to operate cautiously [41]. 19. Soda Ash - **Performance**: The soda ash futures rose 0.32%. The production increased, and the inventory decreased [42][43]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals change little, and the price is expected to remain high and consolidate [43]. 20. Glass - **Performance**: The glass futures fell 0.94%. The production line decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly [46]. - **Outlook**: The cost support exists, and the market sentiment may fluctuate [46]. 21. Caustic Soda - **Performance**: The caustic soda futures fell 3.06%. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [47]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to rise due to export and cost factors. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas device dynamics and inventory changes [47][48]. 22. Pulp - **Performance**: The pulp futures rose 0.04%. The port inventory decreased, and the production increased [49]. - **Outlook**: The inventory decline supports the price, and the market sentiment is expected to stabilize [49]. 23. Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: The lithium carbonate futures rose 4.34%. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped [50][51]. - **Outlook**: The supply is tight, and the demand is improving. The price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [51]. 24. Copper - **Performance**: The copper futures rose 1.11%. The inflation expectations and geopolitical situation suppress the price, but the supply is tight, and the demand has a bottom [52]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly with a bottom [52][53]. 25. Aluminum - **Performance**: The aluminum futures fell 0.13%, and the alumina futures fell 0.98%. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the inventory increases [54][55]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly with support [55][56]. 26. Zinc - **Performance**: The zinc futures rose 0.35%. The supply increases, and the demand in the real estate sector is weak [57]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be under pressure [57][58]. 27. Lead - **Performance**: The lead futures fell 0.09%. The supply of primary lead increases, and the demand is weak [59][60]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [60][61]. 28. Tin - **Performance**: The tin futures rose 0.69%. The supply is tight, and the demand in the emerging fields is strong [62]. - **Outlook**: The price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [62]. 29. Nickel - **Performance**: The nickel futures rose 1.33%. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is weak [63][64]. - **Outlook**: The overall supply is in surplus, and it is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [63][64]. 30. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: The soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the demand for biodiesel is expected to increase [65]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see [65][66]. 31. Palm Oil - **Performance**: The palm oil price fell. The export increased, and the inventory is at a high level [67][68]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to consider closing long positions [67][68][69]. 32. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Performance**: The rapeseed futures rose. The import of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal increased, and the inventory decreased [70]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see [70][71]. 33. Cotton - **Performance**: The cotton futures fluctuated. The import increased, and the global cotton production is expected to decrease [72][73]. - **Outlook**: The long - term price has support, but the short - term supply pressure is relieved by the quota issuance [73][74]. 34. Sugar - **Performance**: The domestic sugar futures fluctuated, and the international sugar futures fell. The domestic import increased, and the production is expected to increase [75][76]. - **Outlook**: The international situation is favorable for the price, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The long - term price has a bottom [76][77]. 35. Apple - **Performance**: The apple futures fluctuated. The inventory decreased, and the production is expected to decrease [78][79]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be stable and strong during the Qingming Festival, and it is necessary to pay attention to inventory and weather [78][79]. 36. Live Pigs - **Performance**: The live - pig futures fell 0.55%. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak [80]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [80]. 37. Eggs - **Performance**: The egg futures fell 0.06%. The production cost increased, and the inventory is at a high level [81][82]. - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to remain high, and it is recommended to wait and see [82]. 38. Corn and Starch - **Performance**: The corn and starch futures fell. The inventory of North Port is low, and the demand is slightly improved [83][84]. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply and demand are basically balanced. The starch may be slightly stronger than corn. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - term put options [84][85]. 39. Logs - **Performance**: The log futures fell 0.67%. The inventory decreased, and the demand improved [86][87]. - **Outlook**: The supply may shrink due to price and cost factors. The market is affected by the geopolitical situation [87][89].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View On Tuesday, the natural rubber futures rebounded. The natural rubber is in the seasonal low - production stage. The early opening of the domestic Yunnan production area is expected to increase the pressure of new rubber supply, suppressing rubber prices. However, the domestic production area is still in the early stage of tapping with low output, and the specific output situation needs continuous observation. The Thai production area is still in the low - production season, which generally lasts until May. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate, and the short - term supply - side elasticity weakens, with relatively firm raw rubber prices. The demand - side all - steel tire start - up is stable. The rubber price is currently facing the new rubber supply pressure, but the strength of synthetic rubber forms support at the bottom. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [2]. 3. Catalog Summaries Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16225, 13310, and 16800 respectively. The prices of RU and NR increased by 80 (0.50%) and 255 (1.95%) respectively, while the price of BR decreased by 670 (-3.84%). The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 299408, 74903, and 597751 respectively. The open interests of RU, NR, and BR were 111774, 57562, and 74665 respectively, with decreases of 5117, 1141, and 14227 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR are 2915, - 575, and - 3490 respectively, with changes of - 175, 750, and 925 compared to the previous values [2]. - **Basis**: The current RU basis is - 125, the basis of mixed - RU is - 1005, and the basis of smoked sheet - RU is 3375 [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The spot prices of whole milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming are 16000, 16100, and 16050 respectively, with increases of 1.03%, 0.63%, and 0.63% respectively. The spot prices of smoked sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai are 19600, with no change. The spot prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan are 15220 and 16150 respectively, with increases of 1.03% and 0.16% respectively [2]. - **Downstream Spot**: The prices of Thai smoked sheet, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex are 75.45, 58.41, and 76 Thai baht per kilogram respectively. The prices of Thai smoked sheet and Thai latex increased by 2.10% and 0.66% respectively, while the price of Thai cup rubber remained unchanged [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, macro - economic conditions, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries show different trends, and investors need to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to specific situations [5][8][10] - Some industries may face price fluctuations and uncertainties due to geopolitical conflicts, while others are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [13][15][18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.52% to 111.240 yuan, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.02% to 108.165 yuan, the 5 - year main contract was flat at 105.915 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% to 102.478 yuan [5] - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. The market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract rose 1.41%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract rose 1.66%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract rose 2.72%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract rose 3.09% [7] - The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but asset valuations are low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9] 3.3 Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract closed at 977.28 with a 3.97% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 17,085 with a 10.86% increase [10] - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [10][11] 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,990 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3,120 - 3,240 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was quoted at 3,280 - 3,300 yuan/ton [12] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. Rebar prices may rebound but with limited space. Hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [13][14] 3.5 Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The PB powder port spot price was 795 yuan/ton, and the Super Special powder spot price was 680 yuan/ton [15] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The increase in iron ore demand may support prices, but the impact may be limited. From a technical perspective, iron ore futures may rebound in the short term. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [15][16] 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated at high levels [17] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. For coking coal, the supply may increase, and attention should be paid to the pressure. For coke, the supply is stable, and the increase in demand supports prices. From a technical perspective, coking coal and coke futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [18][19] 3.7 Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.43% to 6,480 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 0.20% to 6,100 yuan/ton. The Tianjin manganese - silicon spot price rose 80 yuan/ton to 6,300 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - iron price rose 80 yuan/ton to 5,680 yuan/ton [20] - The cost of ferroalloys has limited downward space, and the overall oversupply pressure continues. The recent improvement in profitability in the main production areas weakens the cost support. The short - term surplus of silicon - iron may increase, and the inventory continues to accumulate [20] 3.8 Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to the US delaying the attack on Iranian power plants and the possibility of negotiations between the US and Iran [21] - The increase in net long positions in CFTC futures and options shows that US funds are more optimistic about the future of crude oil. However, the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed, and the US and Iran may cease fire for a month for negotiations. It is recommended to focus on short - entry opportunities for INE crude oil [22][23] 3.9 Polyolefins - Last trading day, the Hangzhou PP market mostly declined, and the Yuyao LLDPE market also fell [24] - Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the cost pressure has increased, the futures fluctuate frequently, and the industry's operating rate has continued to decline. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. It is recommended to focus on short - entry opportunities for polyolefins [24][25] 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.06%. The mainstream price of butadiene rubber in Shandong remained stable at 16,600 - 17,000 yuan/ton [26] - The current main contradiction is cost - driven. The short - term price may maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of device maintenance in the second half of the month, the trend of crude oil prices, and changes in tire export orders [26][28] 3.11 Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.37%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 2.27%. The Shanghai spot price of whole - latex increased to around 16,300 yuan/ton [29] - The current core contradiction is the game between the increase in synthetic rubber cost and the expected substitution demand for natural rubber due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the approaching domestic production area opening and slow demand recovery and inventory pressure. The short - term is a multi - empty game, and the price may maintain a wide - range oscillation [29][30] 3.12 PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract fell 4.41%, and the spot price in the East China region decreased by 250 yuan/ton [31] - The current core contradiction is the game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by overseas geopolitical conflicts, the start of domestic spring demand, and high inventory. In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price may oscillate strongly, but the upward space is restricted by high inventory. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm and demand recovery strength [31][33] 3.13 Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract fell 1.06%, and the spot price in Shandong Linyi increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,880 yuan/ton [34] - The recent main contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price oscillates weakly, but the cost support and the arrival of the demand peak season limit the downward space. In the medium term, attention should be paid to whether the export policy will be adjusted and the demand connection after April [34][35] 3.14 PX - Last trading day, the PX2605 main contract fell 4.22%. The PX profit has dropped significantly, and the PXN spread has dropped to around 65 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread has dropped to around 88 US dollars/ton [36] - Affected by the supply concerns of upstream raw materials, domestic refineries have reduced their loads. The short - term PXN spread and short - process profit are continuously compressed, and the processing fee has room for repair. The PX price may oscillate widely in the short term, and cautious operation is recommended [36][37] 3.15 PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell 4.15%. The PTA processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton [38] - Affected by the shrinkage of raw material supply, PTA production cuts have increased. The cost support has collapsed recently. The short - term is a multi - empty game, and cautious operation is recommended, paying attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and changes in crude oil prices [38] 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 6.23%. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 66.45%, and the inventory in some main ports in East China has increased [39][40] - The short - term Strait passage has loosened, and the import is expected to shrink. The inventory may gradually decrease, and there is support below. The short - term geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and cautious treatment is required, paying attention to the negotiation progress and Strait situation [40] 3.17 Short Fibers - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract fell 3.28%. The short - fiber device load has slightly decreased [41] - Recently, the short - fiber supply has declined, and the terminal factory inventory has decreased. The overall supply - demand has weakened slightly. The short - term still trades based on the cost logic. Attention should be paid to the progress of the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and the resumption progress of downstream factories [41] 3.18 Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle - chip 2605 main contract fell 3.38%. The bottle - chip processing fee is adjusted to around 1,200 yuan/ton [42] - The supply - demand fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much, and the processing fee continues to repair. The manufacturer's price - holding intention is relatively strong. Due to the changeable Middle East situation, the price fluctuations of crude oil and PTA may increase. Cautious participation is recommended, paying attention to the geopolitical situation, device operation dynamics, and cost changes [42][43] 3.19 Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1,240 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase [44] - The supply of soda ash remains high, the inventory has decreased to some extent, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The short - term price may oscillate steadily under emotional support [44] 3.20 Glass - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass closed at 1,064 yuan/ton with a 1.12% decrease [45] - The glass production line continues to shrink, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and the downstream order recovery is slow. The cost support is still there, and the subsequent market sentiment may fluctuate [45][46] 3.21 Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,557 yuan/ton with a 1.27% decrease [47] - The supply of caustic soda has decreased slightly, and the inventory has also decreased. The price of alumina has risen, which supports the price of caustic soda. The 50% and 32% caustic soda prices are bifurcated. Attention should be paid to overseas device dynamics, export order implementation, domestic inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [47][48] 3.22 Pulp - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of pulp closed at 5,210 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase [49] - The port inventory of pulp continues to decrease, and the domestic supply has changed little. The market sentiment is expected to stabilize. The risk of needle - leaf pulp fluctuation is relatively large, and broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable with cost support [49] 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 6.11% to 152,940 yuan/ton [50] - The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped. The supply of lithium carbonate is tight, and the demand in the consumer end is improving. The social inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict [50] 3.24 Copper - Last trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 94,670 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase [51] - The inflation expectation has almost erased the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the global risk preference is suppressed. The supply of refined copper is at risk of contraction, and the demand has a solid bottom. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak oscillation with a bottom [51][52] 3.25 Aluminum - Last trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,810 yuan/ton with a 0.42% increase, and the alumina main contract closed at 2,962 yuan/ton with a 2.18% decrease [53] - Alumina shows a cost - driven passive rebound, and electrolytic aluminum is under pressure in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The price of alumina may enter an oscillatory adjustment state, and the price of electrolytic aluminum may oscillate weakly, but there is support at the bottom [53][55] 3.26 Zinc - Last trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,880 yuan/ton with a 0.52% decrease [56] - The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, and the domestic refined zinc production has increased. The real - estate sector may drag down the galvanizing field. The zinc price may be under pressure due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the strong - dollar logic [56][57] 3.27 Lead - Last trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,470 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase [58] - The production of primary lead enterprises is increasing, and the resumption of production of secondary lead enterprises is delayed. The demand is flat, and the lead price may run weakly due to the lack of fundamental highlights and macro - pressure on the non - ferrous sector [58][59] 3.28 Tin - Last trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.81% to 348,620 yuan/ton [60] - The US - Iran conflict has released a easing signal, and the market risk preference has recovered. The supply of refined tin is slightly eased, and the demand has short - term support. The short - term price of tin has support below, but the overseas situation is still highly uncertain, and attention should be paid to risk control [60][61] 3.29 Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract fell 0.59% to 133,890 yuan/ton [62] - The US - Iran conflict has released a easing signal, and the market risk preference has recovered. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the cost is expected to rise. The downstream demand is not optimistic, and the refined nickel is still in an oversupply pattern. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [62] 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.60% to 2,961 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.97% to 8,594 yuan/ton [63] - Brazil's soybean harvest progress is over 60%, and the domestic soybean import has slowed down. The short - term supply of soybeans may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. The price of oil and meal may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [63][64] 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There is a probability of over 40% that a weak El Niño phenomenon will occur between May and August, and the probability will increase to 60% from September to October. The intensity may be significantly stronger than the prediction at the beginning of the year, and it may further strengthen to a strong El Niño in the third quarter, which may intensify weather disturbances in the production areas [1]. - The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has a weakening effect on rainfall around Indonesia. The Madden - Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the 7th stage area, remaining weak, and will strengthen and develop towards the 8th stage in the future, which may increase precipitation in the West African production areas but has no impact on the Southeast Asian production areas [1]. - Attention should be paid to the risks of less rainfall and the early strengthening of El Niño, which may lead to high - temperature and drought risks in some production areas and affect the production of natural rubber [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Important Meteorological Warnings - **Long - term Climate Dynamics** - **El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)**: The current Nino3.4 index is 0.0 (+0.1), in a neutral state. There is a probability of over 40% that it will turn into a weak El Niño between May and August, and 60% from September to October. The intensity may be significantly stronger than the prediction at the beginning of the year, and it may further strengthen to a strong El Niño in the third quarter, increasing the risk of high - temperature and drought in the production areas [1]. - **Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)**: The DMI index is 0.53, and the Indian Ocean Dipole has turned positive month - on - month, weakening rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - **Madden - Julian Oscillation (MJO)**: Currently in the 7th stage area, remaining weak, and will strengthen and develop towards the 8th stage in the future, which may increase precipitation in the West African production areas but has no impact on the Southeast Asian production areas [1]. - **Production Areas' Conditions** - **China**: Yunnan is gradually starting trial tapping, with good phenological conditions during the winter suspension period. Hainan has good phenological conditions, with earlier tapping than previous years. However, attention should be paid to the risks of less rainfall and high - temperature in the future [2]. - **Indochina Peninsula**: Thailand's northern and northeastern production areas are in the suspension period, and the southern production area is mostly in the suspension period. Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar are in the suspension period, and Laos is gradually starting trial tapping. Attention should be paid to the risks of less rainfall and high - temperature in some areas [2][4]. - **Malay Archipelago**: Indonesia's northern production area is in the low - yield season, and Malaysia's Malay Peninsula production area has had less precipitation in the first quarter. The Philippines' Mindanao area has had more rainfall before, and now it is in the low - yield season [5]. - **South Asia**: India's northeastern production area is in the suspension season, with high - temperature and continuous rainy weather, increasing the risk of diseases. The southwestern production area is approaching the end of the tapping season. Sri Lanka has received rainfall, improving soil humidity [6]. - **West Africa**: Côte d'Ivoire is mostly in the suspension period during the dry season, and it is expected to enter a new production season at the end of April. Attention should be paid to the risk of drought [7]. 3.2 Production Areas' Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides the weekly precipitation data of major natural rubber production areas, including the cumulative precipitation of the current month, the year - on - year percentage, the cumulative precipitation of last week, the weekly difference, the deviation from the average of last week, the forecast precipitation for this week, and the forecast precipitation for the next week [7][8]. 3.3 Production Areas' Sudden Disaster Monitoring - **Tropical Depression**: Low impact. There is a slight air flow disturbance in the southern part of the Java Islands in Indonesia [9]. - **Flood Disaster**: None. The main production areas in Thailand have no flood risk, and most river water levels are maintained at a low level (<10% capacity) [9]. - **Drought and Fire Risk**: Low risk, but attention should be paid to the northeastern and southern parts of Thailand, the western part of Côte d'Ivoire, and the southern part of Myanmar [9]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Production Area - The report provides the 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, as well as the 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts for production areas in China, the Indochina Peninsula, the Malay Archipelago, South Asia, and West Africa [11][50][108][141][168]. - It also provides detailed meteorological index tracking for each production area, including daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomaly at different layers, temperature comparison, and average wind speed [16][55][116][146][175]. 3.5 Appendix - **Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas** - Global natural rubber is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%, with Thailand having a planting area of about 1/4, Indonesia about 1/5, and the rest being more scattered. In terms of yield, Thailand accounts for more than 30% of the global total, Indonesia 15%, and Côte d'Ivoire more than 10% [187]. - **Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber and the Impact of Weather** - The phenological period of rubber trees includes five stages: "leaf - falling period - sprouting period - bronze period - light - green period - stable period (aging period)". The new leaves are most sensitive to weather and natural disasters before maturity, and are also prone to diseases and pests [195]. - In the long - term, the yield of natural rubber mainly depends on the planting area and tree - age structure, with low supply elasticity. In the short - term, more attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the tapping progress [195]. - **Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas** - The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with a high - yield period from September to November and a low - yield period from February to March. The key weather factors to be concerned about vary in different production areas due to geographical and climatic differences [197].