热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 橡胶：预期降温，迎来调整 周二，国产全乳胶 16000 元/吨，环比上日上涨 200 元/吨；泰国 20 号混合胶 15130 元/吨，环比上日上涨 130 元/吨。 原料端：昨日泰国胶水报收 58.8 泰铢/公斤，环比上日下跌 0.3 泰铢/公斤，泰国杯胶价格报收 53.5 泰铢/公斤，环比上日持平；云南停割；海南停割。 截至 2026 年 2 月 1 日，青岛地区天胶保税和一般贸易合计库存量 59.17 万吨，环比上期增加 0.72 万吨，增幅 1.23%。保税区库存 9.76 万吨，增幅 3.34%； 一般贸易库存 49.41 万吨，增幅 0.82%。青岛天然橡胶样本保税仓库入库率增加 5.10 个百分点，出库率减少 2.27个百分点；一般贸易仓库入库率减少 0.40 个百分点，出库率减少 0.35 个百分点。 观点：随着北半球冬季来临，全球即将进入低产季，也代表着单边价格的定价框架将从供需平衡的动态定价转换至存量库存的静态定价，在近期商品市场预 期全面走强的背景下，预计短期内 RU&NR&Sicom 仍将高位震荡。向后看，尽管认为 20 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the natural rubber market will maintain a range - bound and volatile trend in the short term. The market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include reduced supply pressure due to the domestic suspension of the rubber - tapping season and signs of macro - economic improvement, while bearish factors involve concerns about the actual improvement in demand and the increasing supply from Southeast Asian regions. Key factors to watch include weather in Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas, domestic tire enterprise operating rates and inventory changes, automobile production and sales data, macro - economic policies, and inventory levels and import volume changes in Qingdao Free Trade Zone [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Daily Market Trend The main contract of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened, then declined horizontally, followed by sideways consolidation and an upward movement. It reached the daily high and then gradually fell, closing at the second - lowest point of the day. The opening price was 16,110 yuan/ton, the highest price was 16,235 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 15,940 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 15,975 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 380,256 lots, and the open interest was 194,674 lots [1]. b. Price and Open Interest Changes The closing price remained the same as the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased by 5,832 lots compared to the previous day [1]. c. Spot Market Situation On January 13, 2026, the market price (tax - included) of Vietnamese 3L natural rubber in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton. The basis between the current futures closing price of 15,975 yuan/ton and the spot price was 125 yuan/ton, with the futures price slightly lower than the spot price [1]. d. Main Influencing Factors - **Demand Side**: The downstream market had weak buying interest, and overall market transactions were sluggish. Although traders' inventory - holding costs supported prices, downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, resulting in a mediocre trading atmosphere [1]. - **Supply Side**: The natural rubber - producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan in China had entered the off - season, significantly reducing the supply pressure of domestic standard rubber. However, Southeast Asia was still in the peak rubber - tapping season [2]. - **Macro - economic Aspect**: In December 2025, China's Manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up from 49.2% in November, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing prosperity [2]. e. Short - term Outlook The short - term natural rubber market is expected to remain range - bound. On the supply side, the domestic off - season has eased supply pressure, but the overall supply is relatively sufficient due to the peak season in Southeast Asian main producing areas. On the demand side, the operating rates of downstream tire enterprises are average, and there is still inventory pressure on both all - steel and semi - steel tires, which restricts the enterprises' intention to replenish inventory [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the national commodity warehouse registration platform (全仓登) marks a significant advancement in the registration and financing services for bulk commodities in China, addressing long-standing industry pain points such as financing difficulties, credit risks, and lack of standardization [2][10]. Group 1: Financing and Registration Achievements - In February 2025, Guotai Junan Risk Management successfully obtained financing of 1.5 million yuan by pledging domestically produced natural latex that meets the Shanghai Futures Exchange standards [1]. - On June 30, 2025, Guotai Junan Risk Management assisted in the registration of 200 tons of electrolytic copper on the 全仓登 platform, marking a new phase in commodity warehouse registration and financing services [1][8]. Group 2: Industry Pain Points - The industry faces three core pain points: 1. Financing difficulties due to low priority, lack of effective guarantees, and cumbersome processes, particularly affecting small and micro enterprises [1]. 2. Credit risks stemming from the ease of forgery and unclear ownership of paper warehouse receipts, exemplified by the 2022 aluminum ingot double pledge incident [1]. 3. Insufficient standardization in warehouse receipt formats and operational details, leading to significant barriers in business interactions among warehouses, traders, and banks [1]. Group 3: 全仓登 Platform Objectives - The 全仓登 platform aims to eliminate information barriers between futures, spot, warehousing, banking, logistics, trade, and production enterprises, ensuring safe circulation and efficient operation of bulk commodities [2]. - Guotai Junan Risk Management actively participated in the platform's pilot projects, leveraging its industry experience to contribute to the platform's optimization and upgrade [2][3]. Group 4: Pilot Projects and Their Significance - The two pilot projects involving natural latex and electrolytic copper serve as practical examples that validate the platform's core functionalities and operational stability, paving the way for broader implementation [9][10]. - The projects demonstrate the platform's ability to provide efficient financing channels while mitigating risks associated with paper warehouse receipts, thus addressing the identified industry pain points [10]. Group 5: Future Directions - The successful execution of these pilot projects lays the groundwork for a complete business ecosystem and a replicable model for digital transformation in the bulk commodity sector [10]. - Continuous collaboration with the platform will further enhance the integration of warehouse inventory and real-time data retrieval for risk control, establishing a foundation for the digital registration and circulation of all commodity categories [8][10].