2026 年 02 月 05 日 橡胶：震荡运行 20260205 | | 高琳琳 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 | gaolinlin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | | | | | 】Fl | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 刚 | 受初幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 385 | 16. 180 | +205 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16, 325 | 16, 310 | +15 | | | | 成交量（手） | 245, 413 | 254, 278 | -8, 865 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量（手） | 159, 917 | 153, 505 | +6, 412 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 111.570 | 110. 870 | +700 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 31, 124 | 31, 640 | - ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the natural rubber market will maintain a range - bound and volatile trend in the short term. The market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include reduced supply pressure due to the domestic suspension of the rubber - tapping season and signs of macro - economic improvement, while bearish factors involve concerns about the actual improvement in demand and the increasing supply from Southeast Asian regions. Key factors to watch include weather in Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas, domestic tire enterprise operating rates and inventory changes, automobile production and sales data, macro - economic policies, and inventory levels and import volume changes in Qingdao Free Trade Zone [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Daily Market Trend The main contract of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened, then declined horizontally, followed by sideways consolidation and an upward movement. It reached the daily high and then gradually fell, closing at the second - lowest point of the day. The opening price was 16,110 yuan/ton, the highest price was 16,235 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 15,940 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 15,975 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 380,256 lots, and the open interest was 194,674 lots [1]. b. Price and Open Interest Changes The closing price remained the same as the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased by 5,832 lots compared to the previous day [1]. c. Spot Market Situation On January 13, 2026, the market price (tax - included) of Vietnamese 3L natural rubber in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton. The basis between the current futures closing price of 15,975 yuan/ton and the spot price was 125 yuan/ton, with the futures price slightly lower than the spot price [1]. d. Main Influencing Factors - **Demand Side**: The downstream market had weak buying interest, and overall market transactions were sluggish. Although traders' inventory - holding costs supported prices, downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, resulting in a mediocre trading atmosphere [1]. - **Supply Side**: The natural rubber - producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan in China had entered the off - season, significantly reducing the supply pressure of domestic standard rubber. However, Southeast Asia was still in the peak rubber - tapping season [2]. - **Macro - economic Aspect**: In December 2025, China's Manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up from 49.2% in November, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing prosperity [2]. e. Short - term Outlook The short - term natural rubber market is expected to remain range - bound. On the supply side, the domestic off - season has eased supply pressure, but the overall supply is relatively sufficient due to the peak season in Southeast Asian main producing areas. On the demand side, the operating rates of downstream tire enterprises are average, and there is still inventory pressure on both all - steel and semi - steel tires, which restricts the enterprises' intention to replenish inventory [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly with an oscillatory pattern in the short - term and medium - term, and show a weak trend intraday on January 16, 2026 [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][5] - **Core Logic**: After Thailand and Cambodia declared a cease - fire, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan rubber - producing areas are in the off - season, reducing domestic supply pressure, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the December heavy - truck sales data are better than expected. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, Shanghai rubber futures maintained a weak oscillatory pattern on Thursday night and are expected to continue this way on Friday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Due to the tight supply of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen significantly. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some production cuts or shutdowns, reducing the supply expectation. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the December heavy - truck sales data are better than expected. Coupled with the oscillatory and strong pattern of crude oil futures, the cost support has been enhanced. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, synthetic rubber futures showed a high - level correction on Thursday night and are expected to maintain a weak oscillatory pattern on Friday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly on November 29, 2025, with a mid - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillation; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: strong. The reference view is to run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: As domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan are approaching the end of the cutting season, the expected supply of domestic full - latex is decreasing. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic. However, the macro - sentiment weakened due to the significantly worse - than - expected US September non - farm payrolls data last weekend. There are short - term long - short differences in the rubber market. On the night of Thursday this week, the Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and stable trend with a slight rebound. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillation; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: strong. The reference view is to run strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The recent macro - sentiment is okay. The slight decline of domestic and international crude oil futures on the night of Thursday this week weakened the impetus for the synthetic rubber futures to continue to rebound. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the synthetic rubber market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated". Benefiting from the stable rebound of domestic and international crude oil futures prices, the domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and stable trend on the night of Thursday, with a slight increase. It is expected to maintain a strong trend on Friday [7].

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but limited operability in the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and good investment prospects [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, with a bullish bias but limited market operability [1] - 20 - day Rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor market operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balanced state and poor market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends. Some are in a state of shock, some are expected to be weak, and some are supported by certain factors. The investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, including temporary observation, being bullish on certain commodities, and looking for cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded sharply. New cotton cost provides support but also limits price increase. It may continue range - bound. Despite large new cotton production increase, low commercial inventory and fast sales support the market. As of November 20, national cumulative processed lint was 4631000 tons, up 812000 tons year - on - year. As of November 15, commercial cotton inventory was 3639700 tons, down 204300 tons year - on - year. Cotton yarn market trading was weak. Suggestion: temporarily observe [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data in the second half of October was bearish. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand started the new season with good production expectations. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weak. In October, syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were high, with supply pressure. The market focus shifts to the next season's output estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. In Shandong, apple acquisition is almost over. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.33 million tons, down 12.73% year - on - year. The market trading logic shifts to sales expectations. Due to high acquisition prices and poor apple quality, there is a high sentiment of reluctance to sell, which may affect the de - stocking speed. Pay attention to de - stocking [4] 20 - day Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU futures prices rose slightly, 20 - day rubber IR and butadiene rubber BR futures prices fluctuated. Global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, but Yunnan in China is gradually entering the non - production period. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased. Domestic tire operating rate decreased, and tire enterprise inventories increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 468900 tons. Suggestion: RU is bullish, NR and BR should be observed, and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices declined slightly. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, up 3.0% from the previous period. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and the basis has narrowed. Suggestion: temporarily observe [6] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, while domestic spot prices were weak. Traders' import willingness declined. Port outbound volume is over 60000 cubic meters, and inventory is low. Suggestion: temporarily observe [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The Shanghai Rubber 2601 contract is expected to run strongly with short - term and intraday oscillations and a medium - term weakening trend [1][5]. - The Synthetic Rubber 2512 contract is expected to run weakly with short - term, intraday, and medium - term oscillations [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoints** - Short - term: Oscillation [1] - Medium - term: Oscillation and weakening [1][5] - Intraday: Oscillation and strengthening [1][5] - Reference view: Strong operation [1][5] - **Core Logic** - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies, improving the macro - sentiment, and the rubber futures sector had a valuation repair [5]. - The better - than - expected September domestic new car production and sales data in September supported the industrial factors and boosted the bulls' confidence [5]. - The positive signals from the China - US economic and trade talks over the weekend continued to improve the macro - sentiment [5]. - On the night session of Monday this week, the Shanghai Rubber 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and strengthening trend, with the futures price rising 0.13% to 15390 yuan/ton, and is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoints** - Short - term: Oscillation [1] - Medium - term: Oscillation and weakening [1][7] - Intraday: Oscillation and weakening [1][7] - Reference view: Weak operation [1][7] - **Core Logic** - Although the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies and improved the macro - sentiment, the supply - demand fundamentals of synthetic rubber are still weak [7]. - The supply pressure of synthetic rubber continues to increase. In 2025, the planned new capacity of domestic butadiene is 980,000 tons, and the total capacity is expected to reach 7.677 million tons/year, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [7]. - On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price falling 1.13% to 10920 yuan/ton, and is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber 2601 and synthetic rubber 2512 are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being weakly volatile [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **View**: Intraday view is strongly volatile, medium - term view is weakly volatile, and the reference view is to run strongly [5] - **Core Logic**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies, improving the macro - sentiment. The rubber futures sector had a valuation repair. The better - than - expected September domestic new car production and sales data supported the industry factor, boosting the bulls' confidence. The positive signal from the China - US economic and trade talks also improved the macro - sentiment. On the night of last Friday, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures was strongly volatile, with the price rising 0.23% to 15385 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Monday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **View**: Intraday view is strongly volatile, medium - term view is weakly volatile, and the reference view is to run strongly [7] - **Core Logic**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies, improving the macro - sentiment. The rubber futures sector had a valuation repair. The positive signal from the China - US economic and trade talks continued to improve the macro - sentiment. On the night of last Friday, the 2512 contract of synthetic rubber futures was weakly volatile, with the price falling 0.63% to 11085 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Monday [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view is that both沪胶 (RU) and合成胶 (BR) are expected to run weakly. With the digestion of previous macro - positive expectations and the approaching of the National Day holiday, the domestic tire industry's operating rate has weakened, leading to a decline in rubber demand. Meanwhile, the supply - side pressure remains high, resulting in a weakening trend for both rubber types [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety 沪胶 (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is "running weakly" [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - positive expectations are gradually digested and the National Day holiday approaches, the domestic tire industry's operating rate weakens, reducing the rubber demand driving force. With continuous supply - side pressure, the 2601 contract of domestic沪胶 futures showed an oscillating and weakly trend in the night session last Friday, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.23% to 15,235 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakly trend on Monday [5]. 合成胶 (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is "running weakly" [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - positive expectations are gradually digested and the National Day holiday approaches, the domestic tire industry's operating rate weakens, reducing the rubber demand driving force. With continuous supply - side pressure, the 2511 contract of domestic合成胶 futures maintained an oscillating and weakly trend in the night session last Friday, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.28% to 11,215 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakly trend on Monday [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term and intraday, with a mid - term view of oscillation. The strengthening of bullish factors has led to the stabilization of the rubber price oscillations [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillation; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a slight upward bias; Overall view: run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. After the rubber price digested market sentiment, the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a stage of oscillatory stabilization on Wednesday night, with the price slightly rising 0.54% to 15,690 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and stable trend on Thursday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillation; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a slight upward bias; Overall view: run strongly [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut and the market sentiment digestion led to the stable oscillation of the synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract on Wednesday night, with the price slightly rising 0.04% to 11,550 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and slightly upward - biased trend on Thursday [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, marking the first rate reduction since March 2020, which has led to a temporary pullback in the commodity market but subsequently strong growth, particularly in rubber futures [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The federal funds rate is now set in the range of 4.75% to 5.00, reflecting a significant monetary policy shift [1] - This rate cut has immediate implications for various markets, including commodities [1] Group 2: Rubber Futures Market - Rubber futures prices surged, with a closing price of 18,020 yuan/ton on September 19, reaching a seven-year high [1] - From July 31 to September 19, the main rubber futures contract saw a notable increase of 17.47% over 35 trading days [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent natural disasters, including typhoons, have heightened uncertainty in production areas, contributing to the rapid increase in rubber prices [1] - The growth in tire production and sales is identified as the primary driver of rubber demand, while demand from other sectors remains stable [1] - There has been a continuous decline in natural rubber inventory at ports and bonded zones this year, primarily due to reduced import volumes [1] Group 4: Future Price Influencing Factors - Key factors expected to influence rubber futures prices include the duration of adverse weather in major production areas, trends in domestic inventory, and the capacity of downstream tire companies to absorb rising rubber prices [1] - The overall fundamental landscape for natural rubber has not significantly changed, with expectations for a strong market performance in the short term [1]