1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of rubber is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook. The classification of strength levels is as follows: weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, with -2 representing the most bearish and 2 representing the most bullish [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market is expected to be volatile with an upward bias. In March, the tire industry orders are generally sufficient but show a structural differentiation. The demand for all - steel tires is recovering, while the supply of semi - steel tires for domestic sales is tight, restricting exports. Geopolitical factors have led to rising prices of raw materials such as synthetic rubber and carbon black, increasing cost pressure on tire enterprises. At the same time, the tense situation in the Middle East has increased export resistance, and tire enterprises are facing greater production and sales pressure [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 17,115 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 17,020 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan. The trading volume was 404,983 lots, a decrease of 202,745 lots from the previous day. The open interest of the 05 contract was 147,583 lots, an increase of 3,128 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 120,540 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 5,838 lots to 22,040 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis of spot - futures main contract increased by 30 to - 115; the basis of mixed - futures main contract decreased by 100 to - 1,245. The month - spread of RU05 - RU09 remained unchanged at 120 [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - The outer - market quotes of RSS3 remained at 2,500 US dollars/ton. The prices of STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 increased by 10 US dollars/ton to 2,070, 2,060, and 1,980 US dollars/ton respectively. The prices of Qilu butadiene - styrene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 2,200 yuan/ton and 1,200 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton and 14,600 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao market increased by 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 increased by 5 US dollars/ton [1]. 3.2 Industry News - In March, the tire industry orders are generally sufficient but show a structural differentiation. For semi - steel tire sample enterprises, 60% of the enterprises' export orders increased to varying degrees compared with last month, and 40% remained basically stable. For all - steel tire sample enterprises, 56% of the export orders increased compared with last month, 33% remained the same, and 11% decreased. After the Spring Festival, the overall order demand increased significantly, but due to geopolitical factors, some enterprises' orders in the Middle East decreased [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shockingly weak" rating for the rubber industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The demand side is dragging down the rubber price, causing the market to fluctuate weakly. The inventory in Qingdao has increased, the production of tire enterprises has recovered to a normal level, but the post - holiday sales are average, and overseas geopolitical risks are affecting tire exports [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract decreased from 17,245 yuan/ton to 16,835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 410 yuan; the night - closing price decreased from 17,145 yuan/ton to 16,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 655 yuan. The trading volume increased by 94,431 lots to 458,473 lots, the position of the 05 contract decreased by 10,275 lots to 160,346 lots, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 115,070 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members increased by 1,043 lots to 27,148 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" increased by 60 to - 135; the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" increased by 190 to - 1,105; the month - spread of RU05 - RU09 RSS3 decreased by 15 to 130. The prices of STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 in the outer - market quotation decreased by 50, 50, and 45 respectively. The prices of Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene increased by 300 and 250 respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: The prices of Thai mixed, Thai standard, and African 10 in the Qingdao market increased by 10 [2] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rubber is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [2] 3.2 Industry News - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons, an increase of 1.82%. The bonded area inventory increased by 6.52% to 118,100 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.89% to 561,800 tons. The inbound and outbound rates of bonded and general trade warehouses decreased [3][4] - Most all - steel tire enterprises have restored production to a normal level. After the Spring Festival, the overall sales are average, and the export orders are under pressure due to overseas geopolitical risks, which drags down the rubber price [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market is expected to move in a volatile manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,385 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,325 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The trading volume was 245,413 lots, down 8,865 lots; the open interest of the 05 contract was 159,917 lots, up 6,412 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity was 111,570 tons, up 700 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members was 31,124 lots, down 516 lots [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract was - 185 yuan, down 5 yuan; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was - 1,085 yuan, down 35 yuan. The month - spread of RU05 - RU09 was 120 yuan, down 10 yuan. The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,200 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; STR20 was 1,985 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; SMR20 was 1,975 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; SIR20 was 1,900 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars [1]. - **Substitute Products**: The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber was 13,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber was 12,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai mixed rubber was 1,925 - 1,930 US dollars/ton for near - port and 1,935 - 1,940 US dollars/ton for spot, up 15 US dollars; the price of Thai standard rubber was 1,920 - 1,925 US dollars/ton, up to 1,935 - 1,940 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; the price of African 10 was 1,855 - 1,860 US dollars/ton, up to 1,865 US dollars/ton, up 15/10 US dollars [1]. 3.2 Industry News - As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 1.23%. The bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons, an increase of 3.34%; the general trade inventory was 494,100 tons, an increase of 0.82%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 5.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.27 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.40 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.35 percentage points [2][3]. - As of February 1, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.281 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,000 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 853,000 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Among them, the spot inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.2%; Yunnan decreased by 0.8%; Vietnam 10 increased by 2%; the total inventory of NR decreased by 0.5%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 428,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. Among them, the inventory of old full - latex decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, 3L increased by 5%, and the total inventory of RU increased by 1.4% [3]. - Some enterprises, mostly all - steel tire enterprises, ended their year - end work and entered the Spring Festival holiday. The production enthusiasm of semi - steel tire enterprises was still acceptable, and some enterprises had an increase in foreign trade orders recently and moderately increased production. The supply side showed differences, and the supply side of all - steel tires was weakening [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the natural rubber market will maintain a range - bound and volatile trend in the short term. The market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include reduced supply pressure due to the domestic suspension of the rubber - tapping season and signs of macro - economic improvement, while bearish factors involve concerns about the actual improvement in demand and the increasing supply from Southeast Asian regions. Key factors to watch include weather in Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas, domestic tire enterprise operating rates and inventory changes, automobile production and sales data, macro - economic policies, and inventory levels and import volume changes in Qingdao Free Trade Zone [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Daily Market Trend The main contract of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened, then declined horizontally, followed by sideways consolidation and an upward movement. It reached the daily high and then gradually fell, closing at the second - lowest point of the day. The opening price was 16,110 yuan/ton, the highest price was 16,235 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 15,940 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 15,975 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 380,256 lots, and the open interest was 194,674 lots [1]. b. Price and Open Interest Changes The closing price remained the same as the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased by 5,832 lots compared to the previous day [1]. c. Spot Market Situation On January 13, 2026, the market price (tax - included) of Vietnamese 3L natural rubber in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton. The basis between the current futures closing price of 15,975 yuan/ton and the spot price was 125 yuan/ton, with the futures price slightly lower than the spot price [1]. d. Main Influencing Factors - **Demand Side**: The downstream market had weak buying interest, and overall market transactions were sluggish. Although traders' inventory - holding costs supported prices, downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, resulting in a mediocre trading atmosphere [1]. - **Supply Side**: The natural rubber - producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan in China had entered the off - season, significantly reducing the supply pressure of domestic standard rubber. However, Southeast Asia was still in the peak rubber - tapping season [2]. - **Macro - economic Aspect**: In December 2025, China's Manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up from 49.2% in November, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing prosperity [2]. e. Short - term Outlook The short - term natural rubber market is expected to remain range - bound. On the supply side, the domestic off - season has eased supply pressure, but the overall supply is relatively sufficient due to the peak season in Southeast Asian main producing areas. On the demand side, the operating rates of downstream tire enterprises are average, and there is still inventory pressure on both all - steel and semi - steel tires, which restricts the enterprises' intention to replenish inventory [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly with an oscillatory pattern in the short - term and medium - term, and show a weak trend intraday on January 16, 2026 [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][5] - **Core Logic**: After Thailand and Cambodia declared a cease - fire, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan rubber - producing areas are in the off - season, reducing domestic supply pressure, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the December heavy - truck sales data are better than expected. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, Shanghai rubber futures maintained a weak oscillatory pattern on Thursday night and are expected to continue this way on Friday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Due to the tight supply of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen significantly. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some production cuts or shutdowns, reducing the supply expectation. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the December heavy - truck sales data are better than expected. Coupled with the oscillatory and strong pattern of crude oil futures, the cost support has been enhanced. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, synthetic rubber futures showed a high - level correction on Thursday night and are expected to maintain a weak oscillatory pattern on Friday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly on November 29, 2025, with a mid - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillation; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: strong. The reference view is to run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: As domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan are approaching the end of the cutting season, the expected supply of domestic full - latex is decreasing. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic. However, the macro - sentiment weakened due to the significantly worse - than - expected US September non - farm payrolls data last weekend. There are short - term long - short differences in the rubber market. On the night of Thursday this week, the Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and stable trend with a slight rebound. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillation; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: strong. The reference view is to run strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The recent macro - sentiment is okay. The slight decline of domestic and international crude oil futures on the night of Thursday this week weakened the impetus for the synthetic rubber futures to continue to rebound. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the synthetic rubber market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated". Benefiting from the stable rebound of domestic and international crude oil futures prices, the domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and stable trend on the night of Thursday, with a slight increase. It is expected to maintain a strong trend on Friday [7].

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but limited operability in the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and good investment prospects [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, with a bullish bias but limited market operability [1] - 20 - day Rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor market operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balanced state and poor market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends. Some are in a state of shock, some are expected to be weak, and some are supported by certain factors. The investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, including temporary observation, being bullish on certain commodities, and looking for cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded sharply. New cotton cost provides support but also limits price increase. It may continue range - bound. Despite large new cotton production increase, low commercial inventory and fast sales support the market. As of November 20, national cumulative processed lint was 4631000 tons, up 812000 tons year - on - year. As of November 15, commercial cotton inventory was 3639700 tons, down 204300 tons year - on - year. Cotton yarn market trading was weak. Suggestion: temporarily observe [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data in the second half of October was bearish. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand started the new season with good production expectations. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weak. In October, syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were high, with supply pressure. The market focus shifts to the next season's output estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. In Shandong, apple acquisition is almost over. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.33 million tons, down 12.73% year - on - year. The market trading logic shifts to sales expectations. Due to high acquisition prices and poor apple quality, there is a high sentiment of reluctance to sell, which may affect the de - stocking speed. Pay attention to de - stocking [4] 20 - day Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU futures prices rose slightly, 20 - day rubber IR and butadiene rubber BR futures prices fluctuated. Global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, but Yunnan in China is gradually entering the non - production period. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased. Domestic tire operating rate decreased, and tire enterprise inventories increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 468900 tons. Suggestion: RU is bullish, NR and BR should be observed, and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices declined slightly. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, up 3.0% from the previous period. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and the basis has narrowed. Suggestion: temporarily observe [6] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, while domestic spot prices were weak. Traders' import willingness declined. Port outbound volume is over 60000 cubic meters, and inventory is low. Suggestion: temporarily observe [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The Shanghai Rubber 2601 contract is expected to run strongly with short - term and intraday oscillations and a medium - term weakening trend [1][5]. - The Synthetic Rubber 2512 contract is expected to run weakly with short - term, intraday, and medium - term oscillations [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoints** - Short - term: Oscillation [1] - Medium - term: Oscillation and weakening [1][5] - Intraday: Oscillation and strengthening [1][5] - Reference view: Strong operation [1][5] - **Core Logic** - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies, improving the macro - sentiment, and the rubber futures sector had a valuation repair [5]. - The better - than - expected September domestic new car production and sales data in September supported the industrial factors and boosted the bulls' confidence [5]. - The positive signals from the China - US economic and trade talks over the weekend continued to improve the macro - sentiment [5]. - On the night session of Monday this week, the Shanghai Rubber 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and strengthening trend, with the futures price rising 0.13% to 15390 yuan/ton, and is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoints** - Short - term: Oscillation [1] - Medium - term: Oscillation and weakening [1][7] - Intraday: Oscillation and weakening [1][7] - Reference view: Weak operation [1][7] - **Core Logic** - Although the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies and improved the macro - sentiment, the supply - demand fundamentals of synthetic rubber are still weak [7]. - The supply pressure of synthetic rubber continues to increase. In 2025, the planned new capacity of domestic butadiene is 980,000 tons, and the total capacity is expected to reach 7.677 million tons/year, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [7]. - On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price falling 1.13% to 10920 yuan/ton, and is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber 2601 and synthetic rubber 2512 are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being weakly volatile [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **View**: Intraday view is strongly volatile, medium - term view is weakly volatile, and the reference view is to run strongly [5] - **Core Logic**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies, improving the macro - sentiment. The rubber futures sector had a valuation repair. The better - than - expected September domestic new car production and sales data supported the industry factor, boosting the bulls' confidence. The positive signal from the China - US economic and trade talks also improved the macro - sentiment. On the night of last Friday, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures was strongly volatile, with the price rising 0.23% to 15385 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Monday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **View**: Intraday view is strongly volatile, medium - term view is weakly volatile, and the reference view is to run strongly [7] - **Core Logic**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies, improving the macro - sentiment. The rubber futures sector had a valuation repair. The positive signal from the China - US economic and trade talks continued to improve the macro - sentiment. On the night of last Friday, the 2512 contract of synthetic rubber futures was weakly volatile, with the price falling 0.63% to 11085 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Monday [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view is that both沪胶 (RU) and合成胶 (BR) are expected to run weakly. With the digestion of previous macro - positive expectations and the approaching of the National Day holiday, the domestic tire industry's operating rate has weakened, leading to a decline in rubber demand. Meanwhile, the supply - side pressure remains high, resulting in a weakening trend for both rubber types [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety 沪胶 (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is "running weakly" [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - positive expectations are gradually digested and the National Day holiday approaches, the domestic tire industry's operating rate weakens, reducing the rubber demand driving force. With continuous supply - side pressure, the 2601 contract of domestic沪胶 futures showed an oscillating and weakly trend in the night session last Friday, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.23% to 15,235 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakly trend on Monday [5]. 合成胶 (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is "running weakly" [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - positive expectations are gradually digested and the National Day holiday approaches, the domestic tire industry's operating rate weakens, reducing the rubber demand driving force. With continuous supply - side pressure, the 2511 contract of domestic合成胶 futures maintained an oscillating and weakly trend in the night session last Friday, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.28% to 11,215 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakly trend on Monday [6].