中金财富期货表示，天然橡胶供需两端充分反馈，库存中高位难以去化，炒作情绪降温后震荡回调，预 计后期季节性走强将打破这一僵局。 西南期货分析称，供应扰动，需求持稳，预计后市天然橡胶偏强震荡为主。供应端，海内外产区仍有强 降雨干扰，影响割胶工作，原料采购价格继续上涨，上游成本支撑走强；需求端，周内个别意外检修企 业生产基本恢复，带动整体产能利用率小幅提升；库存端本周中国天然橡胶库存呈现去库，深色和浅色 同降；消息面上，最新预估数据显示，2025年泰国橡胶产量料增加2%至489万吨，2024年初步数据为 480万吨。观点：偏强震荡。 目前来看，天然橡胶行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于天然橡胶后市行情将如何运行，相关 机构观点汇总如下： 新世纪期货指出，在天然橡胶价格持续走强的市场环境下，轮胎企业基于成本考量，大部分在周初价格 相对低位时进行集中补库，带动港口出库量明显攀升。在入库减少而出库增加的双重作用下，青岛港 （601298）口橡胶库存总量延续下降态势。海外及国内产区降雨天气仍将制约割胶作业效率，叠加泰柬 边境局势紧张进一步限制胶农正常生产活动。市场看涨情绪浓厚，天然橡胶价格预计将维持坚挺态势。 7月3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Natural rubber futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 14,960.00 yuan and closing at 15,065.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.52% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Shenyin Wanguo Futures predicts a short-term correction in natural rubber prices, citing that recent rainfall in production areas has affected rubber tapping, providing some support to raw material prices. However, demand remains weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption and uncertainties in exports [1] - According to Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures, the overall trend for natural rubber prices remains bullish, supported by a slight increase in tire manufacturers' capacity utilization. High temperatures in several regions have positively impacted retail sales, leading to a recovery in production schedules for tire companies [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total inventory in Qingdao has been increasing, indicating that price increases will rely heavily on supply-side factors. The market is expected to face challenges in sustaining upward momentum due to weak demand [1] - On the supply side, localized rainfall disturbances in Hainan are causing slow seasonal increases in raw material supply. The rise in futures prices has led to heightened purchasing sentiment among processing plants [1] Group 3: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy suggests that tire manufacturers' capacity utilization is improving, and raw material prices remain firm, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend for natural rubber prices. Existing long positions can be maintained, while new entrants should wait for a pullback to enter [1] - Key support and resistance levels are identified: for RU, support at 15,000-15,100 and resistance at 16,000-16,100; for NR, support at 12,700-12,800 and resistance at 13,700-13,800 [1]