Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that the upcoming winter is expected to be colder than usual due to the dissipation of the effects from previous warm winters caused by the El Niño phenomenon, with a potential natural gas shortage in China after five years, positively impacting China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The La Niña signal appears to be strengthening, which could lead to a colder winter and a potential natural gas shortage in China [1] - Natural gas consumption in China is projected to accelerate from a 2% increase in summer to a 9% year-on-year growth this winter [1] Group 2: Company Outlook - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of HKD 10.25 for China Petroleum, rating the stock as "Overweight" due to significant profit upside potential [1] - The company is viewed as the preferred natural gas investment in China, benefiting from wholesale natural gas pricing reforms, reduced import costs, retail participation, and structural demand growth [1] - The natural gas business of China Petroleum, including exploration, production, distribution, and pipelines, is considered a utility asset, with expected natural gas profits potentially reaching about twice that of oil profits under oil prices between USD 60 to 65 per barrel [1]

期货热点追踪 尿素市场迎来转折点？天然气短缺+假期导致物流延误=价格上涨？ 相关链接 ...