证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 24 日 电影票价明显修复，有色、存储器价格强势 ——行业景气观察（1224） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在资源品、中游制造和信息技术领域。上游资源品中， 金属、钢铁、煤炭价格多数上涨；中游制造领域，新能源产业链价格多数上涨， 11 月金属成形机床产量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。信息技术中，存储器价格持 续上涨，11 月电信主营业务收入三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，生猪 养殖利润上行。上市公司 Q4 盈利有望延续正增长，但增幅可能有所收窄。推荐 关注年报盈利有望高增或有改善的有色、电池、军工电子、航空/航天装备、电网 设备、工程机械、半导体、传媒等。 ❑【资源品】建筑钢材成交量十日均值上行；钢坯价格、螺纹钢价格均上行。煤炭价 格方面，秦皇岛优混动力煤价格下行，京唐港山西主焦煤库提价上行；焦炭期货结 算价、焦煤期货结算价上行。库存方面，秦皇岛港煤炭库存上行，京唐港炼焦煤库 存、天津港焦炭库存下行。全国水泥价格指数上行。Brent 国际原油价格上行；中 国化工产品价格指数周环比上行，化工品价格多数下行，PVC、PTA 涨幅居前， 聚乙烯、聚合 MID 跌幅 ...

中信建投（601066）研报称，今年三季度以来，中国市场光纤价格持续上涨，反映需求向好、整体供应 偏紧。海外需求旺盛，出口表现强劲，反映了全球光纤光缆市场的旺盛需求。中信建投认为，经历了 2019年供需失衡，价格大跌，此次厂商扩产会相对理性，另外光棒等环节扩产周期较长。此轮需求回暖 叠加价格上涨，行业龙头公司可能盈利与估值双提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kingston believes that the prices of solid-state drives (SSDs) will continue to rise, urging consumers to purchase immediately to avoid higher costs in the future [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - NAND flash prices have increased by 246% since Q1 2025, with 70% of this increase occurring in the last 60 days [1]. - The current price increase rate is unprecedented in Kingston's 29-year history [4]. - Kingston's pricing strategy has been adjusted due to NAND flash memory accounting for 90% of the material costs in SSDs [1]. Group 2: Market Demand - There is a significant supply-demand imbalance for memory modules and mechanical hard drives, leading to price increases of up to several times [1]. - While SK Hynix predicts limited growth in consumer SSD demand, Kingston anticipates that enterprise SSD demand will rise, potentially affecting consumer SSDs but to a lesser extent [1]. - Kingston plans to fill the market gap left by Micron's exit from the consumer memory and SSD market, focusing on distribution channels [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Kingston's business manager does not foresee a drastic price drop in the near term, despite hopes that supply shortages will not last long [5].

记者了解到，今日天津500毫升53度飞天茅台的批发价已经炒到1630元/瓶，公斤茅台的拿货价也从2900 元/瓶上涨到3150元/瓶，而且还在上涨。批价上涨也带动了线下零售终端的价格上涨，北京部分烟酒店 的茅台价格已经回到1680元/瓶。 不过部分酒商和行业人士对于茅台批价大涨保持观望，一方面茅台选择暂时停货并非系统性减产，尚不 清楚具体措施内容，而且2026年1月1日后是否会继续放货情况也不明朗；另一方面，年末的酒水消费市 场环境也并不理想。 根据第三方平台报价数据，今日早间飞天茅台散瓶批价上涨至1570元/瓶，原箱1590元/瓶，比上一日有 70元的涨幅。但天津和江苏酒商告诉记者，消息传开后，由于周末茅台经销商休息，黄牛开始坐地抬 价，一天价格多次调整，甚至改成时价拿货。 茅台新控量政策消息传开后，市场价格立即予以反应。酒商反馈称，今日天津飞天茅台拿货已经涨到 1630元/瓶，两日涨幅超过150元/瓶。 12月12日晚就有市场传言称茅台召开临时经销商会议，出台了控量新政。13日中国酒业独立评论员肖竹 青证实，贵州茅台于近期推出控量政策，涵盖短期减负，以及中长期结构性改革两大维度。包括在2026 年1月1日 ...

浙商证券（601878）发布研报称，25Q3公司快递量完成95.7亿件，同比+9.8%，市场份额为19.4%。散 件业务量增长势头依然强劲，同比增幅近50%，持续为利润带来积极贡献。基于全年预测数据及根据目 前的市场和运营情况，公司对年度指引作出调整，2025年的包裹量预计将介于382亿至387亿件之间，同 比增长12.3%至13.8%。核心单票方面，25Q3单票调整后净利润0.26元，24Q3为0.27元；环比25Q2提升 0.05元。国庆节后第二轮涨价开启，行业旺季到来，涨价具备一定持续性，对快递价格形成支撑。 消息面上，近日，中通快递-W发布2025年三季度业绩，里昂指出，中通快递-W第三季收入及经调整净 利润分别同比增长11%及7%，每单经调整净利润为约0.27元人民币，较第二季的0.21元人民币改善，看 好其核心每单成本因新转运中心投产仅上升0.02元人民币。里昂表示，行业反内卷政策预期将持续实 施，相信监管机构会继续透过设定价格下限，来严格遏止价格恶性竞争。考虑到中通客户结构较同业 好，里昂预期该公司明年市场份额可回升，将2025及2026年净利润预测轻微上调2%。 中通快递-W(02057)张超 ...

Core Viewpoint - GEV, a leading gas turbine manufacturer in the U.S., reported a backlog of 62 GW for the third quarter, with expectations to reach 70 GW by the end of the year, which is over four times its current production capacity [1] Group 1: Company Performance - GEV plans to expand its production capacity to 20 GW annually by the third quarter of 2026, representing an increase of over 50% [1] - Due to severe supply-demand imbalances, GEV's gas turbine prices are expected to rise starting in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the company is currently in an upward pricing trend [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The pricing of the company's HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) products will be adjusted based on market supply and demand conditions [1] - The company has multiple potential customers in its Vietnam base undergoing preliminary factory inspection processes [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that there is a tight supply of storage devices, leading to a rapid increase in prices [1] Group 2 - The joint CEO of SMIC indicates that the current market conditions are causing significant pressure on storage device production capacity [1] - The article suggests that the rising prices of storage devices may impact various sectors reliant on these components [1]

Summary of Haike Xinyuan Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haike Xinyuan - **Industry**: Solvent and VC (Vinyl Carbonate) production Key Points Financial Performance and Revenue Composition - In 2024, solvent revenue is expected to account for 2/3 of total revenue, with propylene glycol making up the remaining 1/3. By 2025, solvent revenue is projected to increase to 3/4 due to enhanced production capacity at the Hubei plant [2][3] - Average sales prices for DMC, EMC, and EC products in Q3 were approximately 4,300-4,400 RMB/ton, with a decline in July and August but a recovery in September [2][4] - The container business reported a loss of about 500 RMB/ton in Q3, primarily due to falling product prices, but is expected to break even in Q4 [2][5] Market Trends and Price Projections - Solvent prices hit a low in July and August but rebounded by 100-150 RMB/ton in September, with further increases expected in October and December [2][7] - A price increase of 3%-5% is anticipated for scattered orders from October to November, with an overall price rise of over 200 RMB/ton expected in Q4 [2][7] - The global solvent effective capacity is around 2.2 million tons, with Haike Xinyuan, Shida Shenghua, and Hualu Hengsheng collectively holding about 80% market share [2][10][11] Production Capacity and Future Plans - Haike Xinyuan's current annual production capacity is 770,000 tons for solvents and 130,000 tons for alcohol products, totaling 900,000 tons [3] - The company expects to sell over 700,000 tons in 2025 and conservatively estimates sales of over 800,000 tons in 2026, with potential capacity expansion through technological upgrades or acquisitions [2][12] - The company plans to expand VC production capacity from 11,000 tons to 15,000 tons, with an expected additional annual revenue of 300 million RMB if prices remain high [3][16] VC Product Insights - VC product prices have surged from 44,500 RMB/ton to nearly 80,000 RMB/ton, with expectations of maintaining prices between 80,000 and 100,000 RMB/ton in 2026 [3][21][22] - The global demand for VC products is projected to reach 100,000-110,000 tons in 2026, with current effective capacity at about 80,000 tons, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [3][18] Competitive Advantages and Market Position - Haike Xinyuan has a competitive edge in cost control due to its self-sourced raw materials and has successfully passed audits from major clients like BYD [3][26] - The company is in discussions with strategic partners, including Guoxuan High-Tech, and aims to expand its customer base by increasing production capacity [3][26] Conclusion - Haike Xinyuan is positioned for growth in the solvent and VC markets, with a strong focus on capacity expansion and price recovery. The company is navigating market fluctuations effectively and is set to capitalize on increasing demand in the coming years [2][3][12][18]

Summary of Conference Call for Shangtai Technology Company Overview - **Company**: Shangtai Technology - **Industry**: Battery Materials, specifically focusing on anode materials Key Points and Arguments 1. Production and Sales Forecast - Shangtai Technology expects total shipments for 2025 to reach **330,000 tons**, a **50% year-on-year increase** [2][5] - In Q3 2025, the shipment volume was approximately **92,000 tons**, reflecting a **30% increase** from Q2 [3] - Q4 2025 shipment is anticipated to be slightly above Q3, potentially reaching **100,000 tons** [5] 2. Product Mix and Profitability - In Q3 2025, **fast-charging products** accounted for **40%** of total shipments, while **energy storage products** made up **20%** [6] - Energy storage products have lower profitability due to high homogeneity [6] - The average profit per ton in Q3 was around **2,700 CNY**, with expectations to recover to between **3,300 and 3,700 CNY** in Q4 [3][14] 3. Capacity Expansion Plans - Current capacity construction is progressing slower than expected due to inherent limitations, with total capacity projected to reach **380,000 tons** by the end of 2026 [2][7] - If considering outsourcing, total capacity could potentially reach **420,000 tons** [2][7] - The **Shanxi Phase IV** project, with a capacity of **200,000 tons**, is expected to be operational by Q3 2026 [7][40] 4. Pricing Trends - Recent price increases for small customers have been around **10%**, with average prices at **24,000 CNY/ton** (excluding tax) [9] - Large customers are also expected to see price increases of about **10%**, although this has not fully materialized yet [9] - Future price trends will depend on regulatory policies and supply conditions, with potential for price increases if supply remains tight [13] 5. Cost Structure and Challenges - Costs for new overseas capacity are significantly higher than domestic, with electricity costs up **50%** and labor costs doubling, leading to an overall cost increase of over **70%** [11] - The company anticipates a potential cost increase of around **100 CNY** due to various factors, including exchange rates [13] 6. Market Dynamics - The industry is not seeing substantial capacity expansion, with no new projects over **100,000 tons** expected to enter the market quickly [10] - Major players continue to dominate the market, and new entrants face significant barriers, including a minimum **two-year construction period** and substantial capital requirements [10] 7. New Product Development - The company has established a **500-ton** annual production base for silicon-carbon materials, focusing on enhancing fast-charging capabilities and cycle life [3][17] - New energy storage products are expected to significantly improve profitability in the coming year, outpacing the development of power-related new products [18] 8. Customer Demand and Order Coverage - Demand for energy storage products is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating an increase in their share from **20%-30%** this year to **30%-40%** next year [28] - Orders cover the entire product range, indicating strong market demand [22] 9. Profitability and Cost Management - The profitability gap between outsourced production and in-house production is approximately **1,000 CNY**, with in-house production yielding around **3,000 CNY** per ton [20][35] - Cost reduction measures are expected to take effect by the end of Q1 2026 due to long inventory cycles [25] 10. Regulatory and Market Conditions - Overseas capacity construction is slow due to regulatory requirements, with full completion expected by the end of 2026 [27] - The overall industry is experiencing supply tightness across all segments, including anode materials [29] Additional Important Insights - The company is balancing production volume and unit profitability, focusing on market demand rather than aggressive price cuts to gain market share [23] - The pricing negotiations with large customers are expected to conclude by the end of the year, with financial impacts visible in January 2026 [34]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that recent economic activity in the U.S. has remained relatively unchanged, with overall employment levels stable [1] - Consumer spending has slightly declined, while prices continue to rise, with several Federal Reserve districts reporting an acceleration in input cost increases [1] - The report highlights that cost increases driven by tariffs have been reported across many districts, but the extent to which these higher costs are passed on to final prices varies [1] Economic Activity - Economic activity in the U.S. has not shown significant changes in recent weeks [1] - Employment levels are reported to be stable overall [1] Consumer Spending - There has been a slight decline in overall consumer spending [1] Price Trends - Prices are continuing to rise, with several districts noting an increase in input costs [1] - The transmission of higher input costs to final prices varies across different regions [1] Tariff Impact - Input cost increases attributed to tariffs have been reported in many Federal Reserve districts [1]