1月8日，宁波发行253.72亿元地方债。此前的1月5日，山东发行723.81亿元地方债，成为今年首个发行 地方债的省份。"'十五五'开局之际，项目储备充足，地方债早发行有助于实现早用款、早见效。"西南 财经大学财政税务学院教授刘蓉表示，目前已披露的新增专项债重点投向新基建、城市更新等领域，有 利于扩大有效投资、提振内需，以政府投资撬动民间投资，巩固经济回升向好态势，助力一季度经济平 稳开局。（中证报） ...

1月8日，宁波发行253.72亿元地方债。此前的1月5日，山东发行723.81亿元地方债，成为今年首个发行 地方债的省份。 "'十五五'开局之际，项目储备充足，地方债早发行有助于实现早用款、早见效。"西南财经大学财政税 务学院教授刘蓉在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，目前已披露的新增专项债重点投向新基建、城市更 新等领域，有利于扩大有效投资、提振内需，以政府投资撬动民间投资，巩固经济回升向好态势，助力 一季度经济平稳开局。 延续靠前发力节奏 财政部此前表示，将尽早提前下达2026年新增地方政府债务限额，便于各地做好与2026年预算编制的衔 接，支持重点项目2026年一季度建设资金需求。 "提前下达新增地方政府债务限额为2026年地方债早发行、早使用提供支撑。"刘蓉认为，一方面，有助 于"十五五"开局项目储备衔接，各地提前编制预算、做好项目前期工作，保障一季度项目开工与资金需 求，尽快形成实物工作量。另一方面，明确积极财政导向，有利于稳定市场对投资与资金投放的预期。 根据企业预警通数据，截至1月8日，已有北京、河北、山西等27地披露一季度发债计划，总规模约2万 亿元。 资金投向料进一步扩围 中央经济工作会议提出， ...

"提前下达新增地方政府债务限额为2026年地方债早发行、早使用提供支撑。"刘蓉认为，一方面，有助 于"十五五"开局项目储备衔接，各地提前编制预算、做好项目前期工作，保障一季度项目开工与资金需 求，尽快形成实物工作量。另一方面，明确积极财政导向，有利于稳定市场对投资与资金投放的预期。 根据企业预警通数据，截至1月8日，已有北京、河北、山西等27地披露一季度发债计划，总规模约2万 亿元。 ● 本报记者 熊彦莎 1月8日，宁波发行253.72亿元地方债。此前的1月5日，山东发行723.81亿元地方债，成为今年首个发行 地方债的省份。 "'十五五'开局之际，项目储备充足，地方债早发行有助于实现早用款、早见效。"西南财经大学财政税 务学院教授刘蓉在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，目前已披露的新增专项债重点投向新基建、城市更 新等领域，有利于扩大有效投资、提振内需，以政府投资撬动民间投资，巩固经济回升向好态势，助力 一季度经济平稳开局。 延续靠前发力节奏 财政部此前表示，将尽早提前下达2026年新增地方政府债务限额，便于各地做好与2026年预算编制的衔 接，支持重点项目2026年一季度建设资金需求。 "地方债延续靠前发力节 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the weakening of the US dollar and the improvement of risk appetite led to a steeper curve overseas, while in China, loose funds drove the yield curve to steepen. The bond market remained volatile due to the supply - demand contradiction at the long end [2]. - In 2026, the PPI is facing three positive factors: the tail - lifting factor, imported inflation, and the continued effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. Under the neutral scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. The mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors to significantly affect the bond market [3][55]. - Currently, the bond market is in a wait - and - see state. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. There are some structural opportunities, such as the follow - up rise opportunity of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression opportunity of credit spreads [4]. Summary by Directory PART1: December 2025 - Curve Steepening Driven by Overseas and Domestic Factors Overseas - In December 2025, the Fed announced reserve management - style purchases (RMP) and continued to cut interest rates. The US dollar index weakened, liquidity improved, the US stock market rose, and risk appetite recovered. The US bond yield curve steepened due to factors like Fed's short - term bond purchase, market concerns about Fed independence, and rising commodity prices. Precious and industrial metals performed well, with copper benefiting from AI demand and gold and silver supported by geopolitical events [10][16]. Domestic - In November 2025, the domestic economic fundamentals showed a divergence between quantity and price, and in December, both supply and demand declined. The capital market was generally loose, and the overnight interest rate hit a new low for the year. The bond market remained volatile due to the long - end supply - demand contradiction, and the yield curve steepened [17][23]. - In terms of institutional behavior, large banks and insurance companies, as allocation players, increased their bond - buying in the secondary market in December. Large banks added some policy - related financial bonds and focused on 5 - 7 - year varieties. Insurance companies mainly added long - term treasury bonds. Trading players became conservative. Rural commercial banks mainly invested in certificates of deposit, funds reduced duration and mainly sold long - term treasury bonds, and wealth management products seasonally reduced bond allocation and slightly increased credit bond allocation [26][35][47]. PART2: How the 2026 Re - inflation Narrative May Affect the Bond Market 2026 PPI's Three Positive Factors - The tail - lifting factor can support the PPI to turn positive in the second half of 2026 even without new price - increasing factors [55]. - Imported inflation may occur as overseas capital expenditure and manufacturing investment are likely to rise in 2026. The US deficit rate may expand, and the Fed's new round of easing may release emerging market countries' capital expenditure demand [57]. - The "anti - involution" policy has shown a supporting effect on the PPI. Since August 2025, the month - on - month PPI of the mining industry has turned positive, driving the overall PPI to turn positive since October [60]. PPI Forecast under Different Scenarios - Under the pessimistic scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second half of 2026 with an average monthly PPI growth rate of 0%. Under the neutral scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.1%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.2%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in April 2026 and exceed 2% in the second half of the year [67]. PPI's Impact on the Bond Market - Historically, during the four PPI upward cycles since 2009, three typical upward periods were driven by the resonance of domestic and overseas demand or supply - demand. The PPI and the bond market generally move in the same direction, but there were several periods of divergence, mainly due to strong economic recovery expectations or PPI being mainly affected by the supply side while the domestic demand did not improve significantly and the monetary policy remained loose [69][71]. - In 2026, the mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors such as total demand, central bank's capital management, financial institutions' liability - side stability, and the flow of activated household deposits to significantly affect the bond market. The trading of typical total assets based on re - inflation may have limited odds [78]. PART3: Bond Market Strategy for January 2026 - In January 2026, the bond market may still be in a wait - and - see period. Potential risks include government bond supply pressure, the spring rally in the equity market, and the first - quarter credit boom. Potential positive factors include the possible relaxation of large banks' bond - allocation pressure and the relatively loose capital market, with a higher probability of a reserve - requirement ratio cut than an interest - rate cut in January [81]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. Structurally, there are opportunities such as the follow - up rise of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression of credit spreads in credit bonds [4][83].

前段时间，我在网上看到一篇文章，说全国的负债已经高达200万亿，折算到每个人头上，人均负债达 到了14万。看到这个数字，我当时的反应就是吓了一跳。我问自己，这些负债到底是从哪儿来的？我们 的钱被花到了哪里？这些负债最后会怎么样？一系列的问题在我脑子里转来转去。 我和我的几个朋友一起讨论过这个话题。有的朋友特别担心，觉得国家负债这么高，是不是意味着经济 出问题了？有的朋友则觉得，不用担心，这是发展中国家的正常现象，没什么大不了的。还有的朋友想 不太明白，为什么这个数字这么高，这些钱到底被花到了哪儿。 为了搞清楚这个问题，我花了一些时间去深入了解国债、地方债、企业债等各种债务的情况。了解以后 才发现，这个事儿远比看起来要复杂。我们不能看到一个大数字就吓坏了，而是要理解这个数字后面的 真实含义。 先从什么是国债开始说起。国债，简单地说，就是国家向各个机构和个人借的钱。国家需要钱的时候， 就会向社会发行债券，把这些债券卖给投资者。投资者买了国债以后，每年会获得一定的利息。到了期 限，国家就要把本金还给投资者。这个过程，就是国债的全部生命周期。 那国家为什么要借钱呢？很多人可能会觉得奇怪，国家又不像个人一样，为什么还要 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025-12-18 China Fiscal Policy Outlook: Moderate Expandsion? 中国财政政策展望：如何理解适度扩张 | 甘 青 | Gan | Qing | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F03124127 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0023461 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 程小庆 | | | Cheng Xiaoqing 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3083989 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0018635 | | 张菁 | Zhang Jing | | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3022617 | 投资咨询号 Consulting ...

Core Insights - The total issuance of local government bonds in China for 2025 has surpassed 10 trillion yuan, marking the first time this annual scale has crossed the 10 trillion yuan threshold [1][3] - The increase in local bond issuance is seen as a necessary measure for stabilizing growth and managing long-term debt risks, emphasizing the need to balance growth and risk prevention [1][3] Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - As of December 2, 2025, the net financing amount of local government bonds is approximately 7.1 trillion yuan, with total issuance around 10.1 trillion yuan, including 2.55 trillion yuan in general bonds and 7.56 trillion yuan in special bonds [1] - The issuance scale for local government bonds has been notably high in 2025, with approximately 2.8 trillion yuan, 2.6 trillion yuan, and 3 trillion yuan issued in the first three quarters respectively [1] Group 2: Special Bonds and Project Financing - The issuance of new special bonds is accelerating, which is expected to facilitate the advancement of major local projects and increase tangible work output [3] - The planned issuance of local government bonds for December 2025 totals 1.05 billion yuan, with 213 million yuan allocated for new special bonds, a significant decrease compared to the previous year [3] - The new special bond issuance is expected to reach a record high, taking into account the "negative list" management of fund allocation and the saturation of traditional infrastructure projects [3] Group 3: Future Projections - For 2026, the limit for new local government special bonds is anticipated to reach 5 trillion yuan, with specific allocations for debt repayment, land acquisition, and project construction [4] - The special bond quota for debt repayment is projected at 1.6 trillion yuan, while the quota for project construction is expected to increase by 1 trillion yuan compared to 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a narrowing spread between local government bonds with maturities over 7 years and national government bonds, indicating a shift in the bond market dynamics and a potential increase in local bond issuance in the coming week [2] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The spread between local government bonds with maturities over 7 years and national government bonds has decreased, suggesting a change in investor sentiment and market conditions [2] - There is an expectation of a significant acceleration in local bond issuance in the upcoming week, which may impact liquidity and investment strategies [2] Group 2: Local Government Bonds - The report provides a weekly tracking of local government bonds, emphasizing the trends and changes in issuance and yields [2] - The narrowing of the yield spread may indicate improved credit conditions for local governments, potentially leading to increased investment in local bonds [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the widening of the yield spread between 10-year and 30-year government bonds, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment towards local government bonds [2] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Yield Spread Analysis** - The yield spread between 10-year and 30-year government bonds has widened, suggesting increased risk perception or changing interest rate expectations among investors [2] - **Local Government Bonds Issuance** - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to slow down in the coming week, which may impact liquidity and investment strategies in the bond market [2] - **Market Implications** - The changes in yield spreads and issuance rates could signal a shift in investment focus, with potential implications for asset allocation and risk management strategies among institutional investors [2]

Group 1: Role of Local Debt - Local debt serves as a key policy tool in China's macroeconomic regulation, playing a significant role in stabilizing economic and social operations, expanding fiscal spending, and optimizing public resource allocation [2][5] - During the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022, local debt was crucial in countering economic downturns by facilitating infrastructure investment [2][5] - The use of local debt has become a routine policy tool for smoothing economic fluctuations and stabilizing overall demand in China [5] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Transmission - Local debt has become the main channel for transmitting policy signals to the real economy, with bond funds flowing directly to specific projects, primarily in infrastructure sectors like transportation and water conservancy [3] - The concentration of debt funds in these areas has improved the overall economic development environment and created investment increments, effectively transmitting fiscal expansion intentions through local debt [3][4] Group 3: Structural Support and Resource Optimization - The scope of special debt has expanded from traditional infrastructure to new areas such as consumption promotion, thereby broadening the coverage of funds [4] - Local debt promotes the simultaneous optimization of resource allocation between public and private sectors, enhancing market resource allocation efficiency through government debt financing [4] Group 4: Regional Coordination and Spillover Effects - Local debt investment in infrastructure generates positive externalities, with studies indicating that a 1% increase in local government debt can boost neighboring regions' economic growth by 0.15-0.3 percentage points [6] - The spillover effects of local debt are cumulative over time, with long-term benefits significantly outweighing short-term impacts [6] Group 5: Debt Risk and Management - Local government debt risks exhibit spatial contagion characteristics, where risk events in one administrative region can trigger synchronized debt risk increases in neighboring areas [7] - The relationship between debt and assets is crucial for repayment safety, with current mechanisms for converting debt into effective assets lacking clarity [10][12] Group 6: Future Directions for Local Debt - There is a need to balance the expansion of fiscal space through local debt with the accumulation of risks, as rising government debt burdens can significantly reduce fiscal surplus rates [10][11] - A three-tiered government debt structure is proposed, with central government debt as the main component, provincial governments sharing some burden, and local governments retaining only essential municipal revenue bonds [16]