Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of China's public budget revenue and expenditure in the first seven months of the year, with a slight increase in local revenue but a decline in central revenue [1][2] - National general public budget revenue reached 135839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while the central budget revenue was 58538 billion yuan, down 2% [1] - Tax revenue for the same period was 110933 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3%, while non-tax revenue was 24906 billion yuan, an increase of 2% [2] Group 2 - Total public budget expenditure was 160737 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, with central expenditure at 23327 billion yuan, up 8.8% [2] - Specific areas of expenditure such as social security and employment, education, and health saw significant increases of 9.8%, 5.7%, and 5.3% respectively [3] - Government fund budget revenue was 23124 billion yuan, down 0.7%, with local government fund revenue declining by 1.8% [5] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that fiscal policy is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for timely implementation of existing policies and the introduction of new measures [5] - Recommendations include accelerating local debt issuance, considering the issuance of special government bonds, and enhancing investment in human capital to boost consumption [5][6] - The focus areas for fiscal support include increasing transfer income for residents, promoting consumption through trade-in programs, and accelerating public spending in technology and infrastructure [6]

Group 1 - The recent rise in equity market sentiment has led to a narrow fluctuation in the bond market, with 10-year and 30-year government bonds struggling to break previous lows, while credit bonds and local government bonds are performing relatively strongly, indicating that compressing yield spreads is becoming a less obstructive direction in an unclear benchmark interest rate environment [1] - As of July 18, 2025, the active bond index for 5-10 year government bonds has decreased by 0.02%, while the government bond ETF for the same duration has seen a recent price of 117.55 yuan, with a nearly 1-year cumulative increase of 5.06% [3] - The government bond ETF for 5-10 years has a recent trading volume of 16.18 billion yuan, with an active market turnover rate of 108.29%, and an average daily trading volume of 7.40 billion yuan over the past month [3] Group 2 - The government bond ETF for 5-10 years has a recent scale of 1.494 billion yuan, with net inflows and outflows remaining balanced, accumulating a total of 61.71 million yuan in inflows over the past 21 trading days [3] - The government bond ETF for 5-10 years has achieved a net value increase of 21.14% over the past 5 years, with a maximum monthly return of 2.58% and a historical profitability rate of 100% over 3 years [3] - The Sharpe ratio for the government bond ETF for 5-10 years over the past 2 years is 1.26, with a maximum drawdown of 2.15% this year, and a management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05% [4]

证券研究报告 | 2025 年 07 月 18 日 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|如何定位"市场化反内卷"？》 1、我们认为，本轮反内卷逻辑和供给侧改革有所不同，本轮反内卷更侧 重于成本调查和价格监测，治理企业低价无序竞争。提价本身需要行业的 供给格局配合，我们从"内卷"程度、产能出清程度、产能出清弹性三个 方面讨论哪些行业更具备基本面率先改善的潜质。以 CAPEX、毛利率和 存货的历史分位数水平衡量行业的"内卷程度"，以上述三个指标是否发 生趋势的拐点判断行业出清是否启动，目的是筛选本身已经在去产能、出 清的行业。2、我们筛选出两类受益方向：第一类走困境反转逻辑，行业 "反内卷"需求较为迫切，处在周期底部，出清拐点初步显现且具有较好 的出清弹性，属于"反内卷"较为核心的赛道。典型行业为光伏设备、通 用设备。以光伏为例，行业库存与开支周期向下，去库效果初显，营收增 速出现环比改善，但毛利率和现金流的改善仍未出现，困境反转后向上空 间较大。第二类走率先出清、盈利改善的右侧逻辑，内卷程度已经得到一 定改善，行业业绩能见度较高。典型为家电、化学原料等。 风险提示：1）过去历史经验有局限性；2）地缘风险 ...

Group 1 - The issuance of local government bonds has significantly accelerated, with over 4 trillion yuan issued this year, of which nearly 40% are new special bonds [1] - The new special bonds are primarily directed towards major project construction, with 16.457 billion yuan in new local bonds issued [1] - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has reached 108.348 billion yuan, accounting for 7.75% of the new special bond funds [1] Group 2 - Land reserve activities are concentrated in economically stable regions, with third and fourth-tier cities showing high participation rates, accounting for nearly 75% of acquisition amounts [2] - More than half of the local bonds issued this year are for "borrowing new to repay old," primarily to replace hidden debts, with 82.8% of the planned total already disclosed [2] - The issuance of new local bonds is expected to accelerate, with June's issuance projected at around 1 trillion yuan [3] Group 3 - Infrastructure investment remains a key focus for the funding from new special bonds, with a significant emphasis on construction projects in the real estate sector [3] - The issuance pace of local government bonds is anticipated to increase in the second quarter, with an estimated total of 1.2 trillion yuan for the entire quarter [3]

跨季叠加地方债放量如何影响 6 月末资金面 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250622 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 22 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com 3跨季叠加地方债放量如何影响 6 月末资金面 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 22 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行逆回购净投放 10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The report presents basic data including the ChinaBond Composite Index at 254.4, the ChinaBond Long/Medium and Short - term Index at 245.4/209.1, the 10 - year inter - bank treasury bond yield at 1.65, and the enterprise/company/convertible bond scales at 70.2/23.7/6.9 trillion respectively [4] Summary by Related Catalog Government Debt Issuance - **Total Net Financing of Treasury Bonds and New Local Bonds**: In the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15), it was 2704 billion yuan, and in the 25th week (6/16 - 6/22), it was 2048 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative general deficit was 5.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 43.4%, exceeding the same period last year [1][7] - **Net Financing of Government Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was 2190 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 2594 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 6.8 trillion yuan, 3.6 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing implicit debts and treasury bonds [1][7] - **Net Financing of Treasury Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was 2621 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 1351 billion yuan. The total annual net financing of treasury bonds is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 3.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 47.1%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [1][8] - **Net Financing of Local Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was - 430 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 1243 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, 2.1 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][10] - **New General Bonds**: In the 24th week, 13 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 272 billion yuan was issued. The local deficit in 2025 is 8000 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 3610 billion yuan, with a progress of 45.1%, exceeding the same period last year [1][10] - **New Special Bonds**: In the 24th week, 71 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 425 billion yuan was issued. The planned issuance of new special bonds in 2025 is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.5%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 3196 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 1699 billion yuan have been issued. The cumulative disclosed acquisition of idle land projects covers 4176 parcels, with a capital scale (including proposed) of about 4564 billion yuan [2][14] - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: In the 24th week, 267 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 527 billion yuan was issued. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.7 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 84% [2][28] - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In the 24th week, the net financing was - 6 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it is expected to be - 383 billion yuan. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.4 trillion yuan [2][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The report presents the weekly observation data of government debt, including the net financing and issuance progress of various types of government bonds, as well as the net financing and balance of urban investment bonds [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Government Debt Overall Situation - The net financing of national debt plus the issuance of new local bonds were 214 billion yuan in the 23rd week (6/2 - 6/8) and 268.9 billion yuan in the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15). As of the 23rd week, the cumulative general deficit was 4.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 41.1%, exceeding the same period last year [1][6] - The net financing of government bonds was 248.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 217.5 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 6.6 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.7 trillion yuan, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing hidden debts and national debt [6] National Debt - The net financing of national debt was 19.8 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 26.05 billion yuan in the 24th week. The total net financing of national debt for the whole year is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 2.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 43.1%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [1][7] Local Debt - The net financing of local debt was 5.05 billion yuan in the 23rd week and -4.3 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.1 trillion yuan [1][10] New General Debt - The issuance of new general debt was 0.87 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 0.13 billion yuan in the 24th week. In 2025, the local deficit is 80 billion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 35.97 billion yuan, with a progress of 45%, exceeding the same period last year [1][10] New Special Debt - The issuance of new special debt was 0.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 0.71 billion yuan in the 24th week. In 2025, the arrangement for new special debt is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.3%, exceeding the same period last year [2][13] - Special new special bonds worth 26.04 billion yuan have been issued, and land reserve special bonds worth 10.83 billion yuan have been issued. The disclosed projects for acquiring idle land have covered 4,176 parcels of land, with a capital scale of about 45.64 billion yuan [2][13] Special Refinancing Bonds - The issuance of special refinancing bonds was 2.77 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 2.67 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 1.7 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 84% [2][27] Urban Investment Bonds - The net financing of urban investment bonds was -0.97 billion yuan in the 23rd week and is expected to be -2.91 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.5 trillion yuan [2][28][31]

中信证券研报表示，新型政策性金融工具时隔3年重启使用，规模为5000亿元，主要用于补充项目资本 金，加快投资项目落地进度。从近期地方政府召开的政策解读会、项目调度会相关报道看，新型政策性 金融工具的投向既包括城市基础设施、水利设施、交通基础设施等传统基建领域，也包括数字经济、人 工智能、低空经济等前沿科技产业。传统意义上政策性金融工具具有较大的撬动作用，化债环境下本次 撬动作用需结合企业贷款投放情况观察，但总体上财政政策显示出积极发力姿态，稳增长决心坚定。新 型政策性金融工具从推出到落地时滞约1-2个月，预计后续地方债发行使用将加速，特别国债支持的"两 重"项目也将加速落地，对今年下半年经济形成有力支撑。 ...

Core Insights - The Penghua 0-4 Year Local Bond ETF (159816.SZ) has seen significant trading activity, with a trading volume of 19.2 billion CNY on April 23, 2025, and a turnover rate of 104%, making it the top bond ETF in the market [1] - The ETF's trading volume increased to 20.61 billion CNY on April 24, 2025, with a turnover rate of 112.09%, ranking fourth among all bond ETFs [1] - On April 25, 2025, the trading volume was 18.44 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 100.25%, again placing it first in the market [1] Trading Activity and Market Demand - The turnover rate and trading volume of bond ETFs are key indicators of market liquidity and investor participation, reflecting the health of the product ecosystem [1] - The Penghua 5-Year Local Bond ETF (159972.SZ) also showed strong trading activity, with average daily trading volumes of 14 billion CNY and 19 billion CNY over the past two weeks, and turnover rates of 31% and 42% respectively [1] - The Penghua 0-4 Year Local Bond ETF had average daily trading volumes of 14 billion CNY and 26 billion CNY, with turnover rates of 74% and 143% over the same period [1] Market Environment and Investment Strategy - Increased risk aversion in the current investment environment is favorable for the bond market, highlighting the defensive value of local bond allocations [1] - Expectations for interest rate cuts by the central bank have risen, with several banks lowering deposit rates in April 2025, which may alleviate pressure on banks' net interest margins [1] - The current spread between 30-year local bonds and 30-year national bonds is 24 basis points, indicating a defensive value, with a focus on observing whether short-term interest rates can decline further [1] Product Innovation and Performance - Penghua Fixed Income's "Bond Index Expert" team has filled a market gap in local bond ETFs, launching the first 5-year local bond ETF in 2019 and the only short-duration 0-4 year local bond ETF in 2020, creating a complementary product matrix [2] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the Penghua 0-4 Year Local Bond ETF achieved net value growth rates of 2.83% and 9.13% over the past 1 year and 3 years, respectively, outperforming its benchmarks [2] - Both local bond ETFs have demonstrated strong capital attraction, with the latest sizes reaching 45.84 billion CNY and 18.40 billion CNY, marking new highs in the past year [2]