Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the widening of the yield spread between 10-year and 30-year government bonds, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment towards local government bonds [2] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Yield Spread Analysis** - The yield spread between 10-year and 30-year government bonds has widened, suggesting increased risk perception or changing interest rate expectations among investors [2] - **Local Government Bonds Issuance** - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to slow down in the coming week, which may impact liquidity and investment strategies in the bond market [2] - **Market Implications** - The changes in yield spreads and issuance rates could signal a shift in investment focus, with potential implications for asset allocation and risk management strategies among institutional investors [2]

来源：人大CMF 刘尚希 中国财政科学研究院原院长 以上观点整理自刘尚希在CMF宏观经济热点问题研讨会（第108期）上的发言 本文字数：3855字 阅读时间：12分钟 一、地方债的稳定器作用 地方债作为我国宏观调控体系的关键政策工具，在维系经济社会稳定运行过程中发挥了重要作用，在扩 大财政支出强度、优化公共资源配置方面具有结构性功能。宏观调控的核心机制在于对冲经济下行风 险，2008 年国际金融危机爆发时，中央政府通过扩大地方债发行规模，迅速形成基础设施投资增量， 有效缓冲了外部冲击带来的增长缺口；2020—2022 年新冠疫情冲击期间，地方债再次成为对冲重大风 险的主要手段，遏制了疫情导致的社会供需负反馈循环。十多年的实践表明，地方债已内化为我国宏观 调控框架中平滑经济波动、稳定总需求的常规化政策工具。 从财政政策传导机制看，地方债已成为政策信号向实体经济输送的主要通道。债券资金以项目为载体直 接下沉，全部跟随具体建设方案流转，重点投向交通、水利、生态环保等基础性领域，这些方面的用途 占历年新增债务的大部分。尽管债务资金使用集中于此，但由此带来的路网扩展与水利完善优化了整体 经济发展环境，并同步形成投资增量 ...

23日，在中国宏观经济论坛(CMF)第108期宏观经济热点问题研讨会上，多位专家围绕如何"在发展中化 债，在化债中发展"等话题进行讨论，认为债务可持续应当成为地方债发展的核心理念，建议尝试建立 经济效益+社会效益双维度绩效评价体系，推动地方债提质增效。 地方债具有不可替代的作用 全国政协委员、中国财政科学研究院原院长刘尚希认为，地方债是稳定宏观经济的重要工具，在扩大政 府财政支出强度、优化财政资源配置中发挥了不可替代的作用。 他具体分析，地方债成为了财政政策传导的主要渠道，使资金直达实体经济，这些年，地方债务主要投 向交通和水利，改善了经济发展环境，同时在一定程度上拉动了投资。 专家：建议建立经济+社会效益评价体系 推动地方债提质增效 中新网9月24日电(记者 石睿)地方债是稳定宏观经济的重要工具，随着化债推进和利率中枢下移，地方 债务结构得到一定的优化。 袁海霞分析，融资平台改革转型对于化解地方存量债务压力非常关键，核心要解决好以下三个关键问 题：一是存量债务如何解决，二是新旧业务如何衔接，三是平台和地方政府之间的关系。 未来要加强地方债与国家战略协同 财政部金融司原司长孙晓霞认为，债务可持续应当成为地方债 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View No specific core view was clearly presented in the given text. Summary by Related Content Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 60.84 billion yuan in Week 37 (9/8 - 9/14) and 31.79 billion yuan in Week 38 (9/15 - 9/21). As of Week 37, the cumulative amount reached 1.11 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 490 billion yuan [1][7]. - The sum of national debt net financing and new local bond issuance was 56.22 billion yuan in Week 37 and 40.56 billion yuan in Week 38. As of Week 37, the cumulative general deficit was 870 billion yuan, with a progress of 78.5%, surpassing the same period last year [1][7]. National Debt - National debt net financing was 41.56 billion yuan in Week 37 and 28.71 billion yuan in Week 38. The total national debt net financing for the year is 666 billion yuan. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 530 billion yuan, with a progress of 78.9%, exceeding the average of the past five years [10]. Local Debt - Local debt net financing was 19.28 billion yuan in Week 37 and 3.09 billion yuan in Week 38. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 590 billion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 280 billion yuan [12]. - New general debt issuance was 1.47 billion yuan in Week 37 and 2.07 billion yuan in Week 38. The local deficit for 2025 is 80 billion yuan. As of Week 37, the cumulative new general debt was 63.55 billion yuan, with a progress of 79.4%, exceeding the same period last year [12]. - New special - purpose debt issuance was 13.19 billion yuan in Week 37 and 9.78 billion yuan in Week 38. The planned new special - purpose debt for 2025 is 440 billion yuan. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 340 billion yuan, with a progress of 77.6%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special - purpose debt of 118.19 billion yuan has been issued, including 21.4 billion yuan since September. Land reserve special - purpose debt of 33.02 billion yuan has been issued [2][15]. Special Refinancing Bonds - Special refinancing bond issuance was 2.62 billion yuan in Week 37 and 2.14 billion yuan in Week 38. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 196 billion yuan, with a issuance progress of 98% [2][30]. Urban Investment Bonds - Urban investment bond net financing was 1.55 billion yuan in Week 37 and is expected to be - 0.7 billion yuan in Week 38. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is 1.02 trillion yuan [3][33].

Group 1 - China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $25.7 billion in July, marking the lowest level since 2009 [1] - Bridgewater's founder warns that the US debt crisis poses a threat to the monetary system [1] - Analysts note that the Bank of England's reduction in long-term government bond sales indirectly acknowledges that previous actions harmed public finances [1] Group 2 - BlackRock states that foreign capital inflow will drive a rebound in Indian bonds [1] - The Ministry of Science and Technology reports that 288 entities have issued over 600 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds [1] - Xiamen plans to issue 9.224 billion yuan in local bonds, including 1.461 billion yuan in "special" new special bonds [1] Group 3 - China Pacific Insurance completed the issuance of 15.556 billion Hong Kong dollars in zero-coupon convertible bonds [1] - China Railway Construction Real Estate successfully issued 1 billion yuan in corporate bonds with a coupon rate of 2.52% [1] - Guangzhou Port Group's second phase of corporate bond issuance for 2025 has a determined interest rate of 1.96% [1] - Greentown plans to pay interest on 1 billion yuan medium-term notes, with the current interest rate for this period set at 3.95% [1] - Huaxia Happiness's "20 Happiness 01" corporate bond is due on September 21, and a repayment plan is being formulated [1]

Primary Market - A total of 22 offshore bonds were issued by Chinese entities from September 1 to 5, 2025, including 3 offshore RMB bonds, 11 USD bonds, and 8 HKD bonds, with issuance sizes of 30 billion RMB, 4.15 billion USD, and 5.475 billion HKD respectively [1] - The largest single issuance in the offshore RMB bond market was 2 billion RMB by China Construction Bank's London branch, with the highest coupon rate of 2.95% issued by East Asia Bank [1] - In the USD bond market, the largest single issuance was 2 billion USD by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, with the highest coupon rate of 6.9% issued by Zhengding County State-owned Assets Holding and Operating Group [1] Secondary Market Overview - The yield on Chinese USD bonds rose across the board, with the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD Bond Composite Index increasing by 0.18% to 248.3, and the investment-grade USD bond index rising by 0.19% to 240.64 [2] - The high-yield USD bond index increased by 0.07% to 244.64, while the real estate USD bond index rose by 0.13% to 186.03 [2] - The local government financing vehicle (LGFV) USD bond index increased by 0.08% to 151.34, and the financial USD bond index rose by 0.1% to 288.27 [2] Benchmark Spread - The spread between the 10-year benchmark government bonds of China and the US narrowed to 241.16 basis points, a decrease of 6.07 basis points from the previous week [3] Rating Changes - Fitch adjusted Meituan's long-term issuer rating outlook from "Positive" to "Stable" on September 4 [4] - Moody's confirmed CITIC Resources' "Ba2" corporate family rating, changing the outlook from "Stable" to "Negative" on September 3 [4] - Several companies, including Weifang Haifa and Sichuan Xinyao Group, had their international long-term ratings withdrawn at their request [4] - Fitch changed Baidu's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default rating outlook from "Stable" to "Negative" on September 2 [4] Domestic News - Local government bond issuance in August exceeded expectations, with actual issuance of 977.6 billion RMB, higher than the planned 940.8 billion RMB, and a planned issuance of 726.5 billion RMB in September [5] - The existing stock of local government debt reached 53.05 trillion RMB, with general debt at 17.1 trillion RMB and special debt at 35.95 trillion RMB [5] Offshore RMB Bonds - Kazakhstan Development Bank successfully issued its first offshore RMB bond of 2 billion RMB with a 3.35% coupon rate on September 2, marking several market firsts [6] - Multiple offshore RMB local government bonds were announced, including plans from Hainan and Shenzhen to issue up to 5 billion RMB each [7] - Guangdong Province successfully issued 2.5 billion RMB in offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau, continuing a five-year trend [7] Overseas News - Federal Reserve's Williams indicated that policy rates are expected to gradually decrease over time, aligning with the dual mandate goals [8][9] Offshore Debt Alerts - Kaisa Group announced that its offshore debt restructuring plan is expected to take effect by the end of September, aiming to optimize its debt structure and reduce debt by approximately 8.6 billion USD [10] - AVIC Capital announced the early redemption of 32.45 million USD principal of its bond on September 4 [11] - Alibaba initiated an exchange offer for its outstanding senior notes, with a total principal amount not exceeding 1 billion USD for 2030 notes and 1.15 billion USD for 2035 notes [12] - DBS China signed a green loan agreement of 490 million RMB with Henderson Land for financing retail and office projects in Shanghai [13]

Core Insights - The issuance of 750 million yuan in counter bonds in Shanxi Province was fully subscribed on the second day of the distribution event, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Individual investors accounted for 631 million yuan, representing 84% of the total subscriptions, while small and medium-sized institutional investors contributed 119 million yuan, or 16% [1] - Since the first issuance of counter bonds in 2021, Shanxi Province has cumulatively issued 2.51 billion yuan in government bonds, showcasing a commitment to public finance and inclusive financial services [1] Future Plans - The province aims to enhance the role of local bonds in connecting fiscal and financial systems, contributing to high-quality economic development in Shanxi [1] - Ongoing efforts will include improving post-sale tracking of bonds and continuing to promote the benefits of public finance to a broader customer base [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of China's public budget revenue and expenditure in the first seven months of the year, with a slight increase in local revenue but a decline in central revenue [1][2] - National general public budget revenue reached 135839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while the central budget revenue was 58538 billion yuan, down 2% [1] - Tax revenue for the same period was 110933 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3%, while non-tax revenue was 24906 billion yuan, an increase of 2% [2] Group 2 - Total public budget expenditure was 160737 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, with central expenditure at 23327 billion yuan, up 8.8% [2] - Specific areas of expenditure such as social security and employment, education, and health saw significant increases of 9.8%, 5.7%, and 5.3% respectively [3] - Government fund budget revenue was 23124 billion yuan, down 0.7%, with local government fund revenue declining by 1.8% [5] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that fiscal policy is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for timely implementation of existing policies and the introduction of new measures [5] - Recommendations include accelerating local debt issuance, considering the issuance of special government bonds, and enhancing investment in human capital to boost consumption [5][6] - The focus areas for fiscal support include increasing transfer income for residents, promoting consumption through trade-in programs, and accelerating public spending in technology and infrastructure [6]

Group 1 - In the first quarter of this year, local government bond issuance exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, with new special bond issuance surpassing 600 billion yuan, accounting for over 40% of the total [1][2] - The issuance pace of local bonds has significantly accelerated since February, with monthly issuance figures increasing from approximately 384.45 billion yuan in January to 629.45 billion yuan in March [1][2] - The total number of local bonds issued in the first quarter was 303, with a total scale of about 1.573 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The issuance of new special bonds has also seen a notable increase since February, with January, February, and March figures at 56.78 billion yuan, 346.59 billion yuan, and 230.76 billion yuan respectively [2] - Compared to the same period last year, the issuance of new special bonds is lower, primarily due to the impact of a 1 trillion yuan national bond issued at the end of last year, which reduced the urgency for special bond issuance this year [2] - The funds raised from special bonds are primarily directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, public services, and other key areas, indicating a focus on maintaining high levels of infrastructure investment [2][3] Group 3 - The new local government special debt limit for this year is set at 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan from the previous year, aimed at supporting local governments in addressing key areas [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of improving the efficiency of government investment and its role in driving overall social investment [3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to February reached 5.0847 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, indicating a positive trend in infrastructure investment [3] Group 4 - The infrastructure sector is expected to remain a primary focus for special bond funding, particularly for major national strategies and projects, to effectively utilize special bonds for counter-cyclical investment stimulation [4] - The issuance pace of local bonds and new special bonds is anticipated to remain steady, supported by the previously issued national bonds [5] - If the long-term special national bonds are issued in large quantities in the second quarter, it may lead to a slowdown in the issuance of ordinary national bonds and new special bonds to avoid pressure on the funding market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a high-quality government debt management mechanism and a comprehensive local debt monitoring and regulatory system is crucial for balancing development and risk prevention during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2]. Group 1: Local Government Debt Growth - Local government debt has rapidly increased from approximately 25.7 trillion yuan at the end of 2020 to an estimated 51.3 trillion yuan by May 2025, representing a doubling of the debt [1]. - The total local debt is currently within the limit of 57.9 trillion yuan, indicating that the overall risk is manageable [1]. - The significant increase in local debt during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is attributed to the need for economic stability in response to the pandemic and other macroeconomic changes [4][8]. Group 2: Mechanisms for Debt Management - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen a shift towards a more transparent management of all debts, moving from dual-track management of hidden and legal debts to a unified approach [1][4]. - The issuance of special bonds has surged, with the annual issuance during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period averaging around 4 trillion yuan, aimed at supporting infrastructure and housing projects [9][10]. - The central government has implemented a comprehensive debt reduction policy, with an estimated 12 trillion yuan allocated to mitigate existing hidden debts [9][15]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework and Challenges - The regulatory framework for local government financing has improved, with measures such as dynamic management of high-risk areas and enhanced transparency in debt monitoring [11][15]. - Despite progress, challenges remain, including the potential for new hidden debts and inflated revenue projections for special bond projects [16][17]. - The need for a balance between debt sustainability and fiscal space is emphasized, particularly as interest payments on debts increase [16][21]. Group 4: Future Considerations for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The focus for the "15th Five-Year Plan" will be on enhancing the quality of debt management and ensuring that debt financing aligns with high-quality development goals [2][21]. - There is a call for a more refined evaluation system for the entire lifecycle of projects funded by debt to ensure accountability and effectiveness [16]. - The transformation of local financing platforms into market-oriented entities is necessary to reduce reliance on government credit and enhance operational efficiency [20][21].