Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan has raised its economic growth forecast for Indonesia in 2026 from 4.9% to 5.2% following better-than-expected GDP data for Q4 2025 [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The unexpected GDP growth in Q4 2025 has led to an upward revision of Indonesia's 2026 growth forecast [1] - Analyst Jin Tik Ngai indicates that growth momentum is expected to slow in early 2026 due to diminishing effects of fiscal spending and automotive sales incentives [1] Fiscal Policy Implications - Ngai suggests that if the government maintains a 3% fiscal deficit cap, the fiscal impulse for this year will weaken [1] - The unexpected growth in Q4 2025 is unlikely to prevent the central bank from further easing policies [1] Interest Rate Expectations - Despite stable exchange rates, Ngai anticipates two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the second quarter of 2026 [1]