Core Viewpoint - The central bank of Malaysia has revised down its economic growth forecast for 2025, now expecting a growth rate between 4% and 4.8%, lower than the previous estimate of 4.5% to 5.5% [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The Malaysian central bank has adjusted its 2025 economic growth forecast to a range of 4% to 4.8% [1] - This revision reflects a decrease from the earlier forecast of 4.5% to 5.5% [1] Inflation Expectations - The inflation forecast for 2025 has been lowered from the original range of 2% to 3.5% to a new range of 1.5% to 2.3% [1] - The adjustment in inflation expectations is primarily attributed to a slowdown in cost and demand outlook [1]

Group 1 - US Treasury yields mostly declined on July 21, with the 2-year yield down 3 basis points to 3.85%, the 10-year yield down 6 basis points to 4.38%, and the 30-year yield down over 6 basis points to 4.94% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes narrowed to 53 basis points [1] Group 2 - The Conference Board reported a 0.3% decline in the Leading Economic Index for June, falling to 98.8, which exceeded the Dow Jones forecast of a 0.2% decrease [3] - The Conference Board does not predict a recession but expects significant economic growth slowdown in 2025 compared to 2024, with a projected 1.6% growth in real GDP for this year [3] - Investors are closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech scheduled for Tuesday, as other Fed officials remain silent ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting [3] Group 3 - The US Treasury issued $155 billion in two bond offerings on July 21, including $82 billion in 13-week bills and $73 billion in 26-week bills, with an additional $80 billion in 6-week bills scheduled for issuance on Tuesday [5]

Group 1 - The French Finance Minister, Bruno Le Maire, announced that France will revise its economic growth forecast in September [1] - Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne proposed the cancellation of two public holidays and a freeze on most public spending as part of a €43.8 billion (approximately $50.88 billion) budget tightening plan [1] - The government is focused on ensuring that this budget plan is approved by the parliament, with Le Maire expressing confidence in the bill's approval and implementation [1]

Group 1 - Singapore's OCBC Bank raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.6% to 2.1% due to stronger-than-expected economic performance in Q2 2025 [1] - The preliminary estimate indicates that Singapore's GDP grew by 4.3% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate of 1.4%, surpassing market expectations [1] - The economic growth in Q2 was driven by robust performances across multiple sectors, including manufacturing (5.5% YoY), services (4.1% YoY), and construction (4.9% YoY) [1] Group 2 - The report highlights significant uncertainties and downside risks in the global economy, particularly regarding the unclear direction of U.S. tariff policies in the second half of 2025, which may lead to a sharp slowdown in Singapore's growth momentum [1] - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is expected to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach in its upcoming policy review, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) averaging a 0.6% year-on-year increase from January to May 2025 [2] - The official forecast for overall and core inflation for 2025 remains at 0.5% to 1.5% [2]

Core Insights - The UK GDP data for May was weaker than expected, indicating a potential downward revision of economic growth forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility [1] - The reported GDP contraction of 0.1% month-on-month contrasts with the expected growth of 0.1% as per a Wall Street Journal survey of economists [1] - This underperformance places the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, in a difficult position, as she must navigate fiscal rules while avoiding increases in the three main tax rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman, Philip Lowe, forecasts a median economic growth of 0.6% for the second quarter, indicating it may be slightly higher than this level [1] Economic Forecast - The RBA's prediction suggests a stable economic outlook for Australia in the near term, with growth expectations reflecting confidence in the economy's resilience [1]

Group 1 - The inflation rate in Israel has decreased to 3.1% over the past 12 months, but it remains above the upper limit of the target range [1] - The Bank of Israel staff predicts that the economy will grow by 4.6% in 2026, an increase from the previous forecast of 4.0% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has acknowledged that its forecasts for medium-term economic growth were overly optimistic, which poses challenges for the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves [1] Economic Forecasts - The OBR's two-year economic growth forecast was found to be overestimated by an average of 0.3 percentage points [1] - The five-year growth forecast was overestimated by an average of 0.7 percentage points, with a cumulative forecast deviation of 2.2 percentage points over five years [1] Implications for Fiscal Policy - The analysis report released on Tuesday increases the risk of downward adjustments to productivity and potential growth forecasts in the upcoming autumn budget [1] - Following a series of costly policy reversals, this situation further complicates Reeves' fiscal plans, with market expectations suggesting that tax increases may be necessary in the budget [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) expresses confidence and capability to minimize the uncertainties and adverse impacts from external shocks, aiming to promote sustained and healthy economic development [1] Economic Environment - The complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the current external environment have increased, posing challenges to stable global economic growth, which may affect China's economic stability [1] - Recent forecasts from the World Bank and OECD have downgraded global economic growth predictions by 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, while maintaining stable growth predictions for China [1] Economic Forecasts - International investment banks such as Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have raised their economic growth forecasts for China [1] - The implementation of existing policies is accelerating, and new reserve policies are being introduced, contributing to the confidence in managing external uncertainties [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent statement did not present any surprising elements, with adjustments to inflation and economic growth forecasts being largely anticipated by the market [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations due to conservative considerations regarding the potential impact of tariffs [1] - The economic growth forecast was slightly downgraded, aligning with market expectations and not leading to a directional change [1] - The focus now shifts to the details provided by Chairman Powell during the press conference, particularly his responses and body language [1]