Group 1 - The United States and Switzerland have reached a new tariff agreement, reducing tariffs from 39% to 15%, with Switzerland committing to invest approximately $200 billion in the U.S. by the end of 2028 [1][2] - The total investment includes commitments from Swiss pharmaceutical companies Roche ($50 billion) and Novartis ($23 billion), as well as investments from engineering group ABB and railway equipment manufacturer Stadler [1] - The agreement must be approved by the Swiss parliament and will subsequently undergo a national referendum, with the Swiss government emphasizing the need to lower costs for domestic companies [1][2] Group 2 - The tariff negotiations are critically important for Switzerland, as the U.S. is a major export market for Swiss goods such as watches, chocolate, pharmaceuticals, and machine tools [2] - The recent tariff crisis has led to a significant decline in Swiss technology exports to the U.S., with a reported drop of 14.2% in the third quarter compared to the previous year [1] - The economic impact of the tariffs has prompted discussions about Switzerland's neutral status and increased calls for strengthening relations with the European Union [2]

Core Insights - The prolonged 42-day federal government shutdown has led to the potential permanent loss of certain economic data originally scheduled for collection in October, complicating the assessment of the U.S. economic health [1][2] - The shutdown has severely impacted federal statistical agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Census Bureau, with significant delays in key economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment data [1][2] Economic Impact - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, indicated that some statistical surveys were not completed, resulting in an unclear economic picture until statistical agencies resume operations [1] - The anticipated release of the September employment report, originally scheduled for October 3, is expected to be the easiest to rectify, as data collection was completed before the shutdown [1] - Hassett predicts that the U.S. economic growth will return to a rate of 3%-4% by the first quarter of the following year, despite acknowledging the impact of the shutdown on the economy [2] Legislative Developments - The Senate passed a bill to restart the government on November 11, with the House expected to approve it soon, followed by the signature of former President Trump [2]

（原标题：IMF预测2025年阿塞拜疆经济增长3%） 阿塞拜疆"Apa"网10月22日报道，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，2025 年阿塞拜疆名义GDP将达764亿美元，增长3%，非油气领域GDP增长4.5%； 2026年GDP将达800亿美元，2030年GDP将达1008亿美元。 ...

阿塞拜疆"Apa"网10月29日报道，世界银行预测，2025年-2027年阿塞拜疆 年均经济增速约为1.7%，通胀将维持在央行目标区间。阿经济面临主要风险为 长期低速增长和能源价格大幅下跌。尽管短期无显著风险，但长期可持续性将 取决于经济多元化改革成效。 （原标题：世行预测2025-2027年阿塞拜疆年均经济增长1.7%） ...

Group 1 - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts a 6.1% economic growth for Central Asia in 2025, slightly decreasing to 5.2% in 2026 [1] - Key growth drivers identified include industrial growth, increased investment, rising real wages, and expanded domestic demand [1] - Mongolia's economy is projected to grow by 5.8% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026, despite a weak performance in the mining sector [1] Group 2 - Mongolia is expected to achieve a 5.6% economic growth in the first half of 2025 [1]

爱尔兰RTE新闻10月24日报道，随着美国关税政策不确定性消散，且国内需求保持强劲，爱尔兰银 行(Bank of Ireland)上调爱经济增长预测，预计今年爱GDP增长10.7%，2026年增长3.1%，高于此前预测 的8.1%和3.2%。修正后的国内需求(MDD)预计2025年增长3.4%，明年增长2.6%。此外，该银行预计今 年爱出口将增长7.5%，明年增长4.5%。预计今年消费者支出增长2.8%，明年增长2.4%。 （原标题：爱尔兰银行上调经济预测，预计爱今年GDP增长10.7%） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian National Confederation of Industry (CNI) has slightly revised down its industrial growth forecast due to a sharp slowdown in the manufacturing sector, while maintaining its GDP growth prediction for 2025 at 2.3% [1] Group 1: Industrial Growth Forecast - CNI has lowered the industrial growth rate from 1.7% to 1.6% [1] - The downward revision is primarily attributed to a significant slowdown in the manufacturing sector, which is facing three adverse factors: declining demand for industrial goods, a surge in imports, and increased tariffs from the United States [1] - The growth forecast for manufacturing has plummeted from an initial 1.9% to the current 0.7% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Despite the negative impact on manufacturing, the performance of the extraction industry has exceeded expectations, helping to mitigate the overall downward adjustment in industrial growth forecasts [1] - CNI anticipates that agricultural income will drive an 8.3% growth in the agricultural sector this year [1] - The service sector is expected to grow by 2%, benefiting from an improving job market and increased federal government spending [1]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Kenya's economy to grow by 4.8% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026, slightly above the 4.7% growth expected in 2024 [1] - The IMF's report on the economic outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa indicates that the region's economic growth is expected to stabilize at 4.1% in 2025, with a moderate recovery in 2026 [1] Economic Growth Drivers - According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), Kenya's economy is projected to grow by 5% in the second quarter of 2025, up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - Key sectors driving this growth include agriculture, forestry, and fishing (4.4%), transportation and storage (5.4%), and financial and insurance services (6.6%) [1] - The construction and mining sectors are expected to rebound strongly after a contraction in 2024, with construction growth at 5.7% and mining and quarrying growth at 15.3% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that South Korea's GDP grew by 1.2% in Q3, the highest since Q1 2024, driven by strong exports and manufacturing performance, surpassing the Bank of Korea's expectation of 1.1% growth [1] - Analysts have revised their economic growth forecasts for next year, with Samsung Securities and Korea Investment Securities increasing their projections from 2.0% and 1.8% to 2.2% and 1.9% respectively [1] - Key growth drivers include consumption vouchers, a strong stock market, increased semiconductor exports, reduced trade uncertainties, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, although high interest rates and investment uncertainties may limit equipment investment and investments in certain sectors [1] Group 2 - The Korean Composite Stock Price Index (Kospi) has surged nearly 70% this year, making it one of the best-performing indices globally, significantly outperforming returns from U.S. stock indices [1] - Concerns over the potential erosion of asset values due to agreements between South Korea and the U.S. have led retail investors in South Korea to invest heavily in dollar-denominated stocks and gold, exacerbating fears of the won's depreciation [1] - The South Korean won has depreciated over 3% in the past three months, becoming one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia [1] Group 3 - A researcher from the Bank of Korea indicated that the weak trend of the won is expected to continue in the short term, particularly due to the unclear interest rate outlook from the Bank of Japan [5] - The won's depreciation has led to upward pressure on the dollar, with expectations that it will stabilize around 1430 won [5]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic forecasts for Uzbekistan, indicating an increase in both economic growth and inflation for the years 2025-2026 [1] Economic Growth - The GDP growth forecast for Uzbekistan in 2025 has been raised from 6.5% to 6.8% [1] - For 2026, the GDP growth forecast has been adjusted from 5.8% to 6% [1] Inflation Rates - The inflation rate forecast for 2025 has increased from 8.4% to 9.1% [1] - The inflation rate forecast for 2026 has been revised from 6.5% to 7.1% [1] Current Account Deficit - The current account deficit is expected to improve due to rising global gold prices, with the 2025 deficit projected to be approximately 2.4% of GDP, down from a previous estimate of 5% [1] - For 2026, the current account deficit is forecasted to be around 4.6% of GDP, slightly lower than the earlier prediction of 4.8% [1]