Group 1 - The Brazilian Ministry of Finance forecasts a GDP growth of 2.3% for the year 2026 [1] - Agriculture is expected to slow down significantly, with a projected growth of only 0.5% following a record harvest last year [1] - The expansion in the industrial and service sectors is anticipated to compensate for the agricultural growth shortfall, with expected growth rates of 2.3% and 2.4% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of Ireland has slightly revised down its economic growth forecast for 2026, indicating a shift towards more sustainable growth rates while still remaining robust [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The GDP growth forecast for 2026 is now 2.8%, down from the previous estimate of 3.1% [1] - The revised domestic demand (MMD) growth for this year is projected at 2.3%, slightly lower than the earlier forecast of 2.6% [1] - For 2025, the GDP growth forecast has been increased to 11.2%, up from 10.7% [1] Employment and Housing Market - Employment is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2026, with the unemployment rate gradually rising to 5% [1] - House prices are projected to increase by 4% [1] Economic Risks and Infrastructure - The chief economist of Bank of Ireland, McCoy, noted that many risks facing Ireland are external, but competitiveness pressures and infrastructure bottlenecks may increasingly constrain the economy [1] - The successful implementation of the government's €106 billion national development plan is deemed crucial given the uncertain outlook [1]

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank predicts that Kyrgyzstan's GDP growth will be approximately 6.5% by 2026, driven by domestic economic stimulus measures, including increased consumer spending, investment, and expanded government fiscal expenditure [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - Key factors driving economic growth include domestic economic stimulus measures [1] - Growth in consumer spending, investment, and government fiscal expenditure are highlighted as significant contributors [1] - The World Bank emphasizes that economic activity will primarily rely on domestic elements [1] Group 2: Sector Contributions - The industrial, construction, and service sectors are expected to lead the economic growth [1] - The ongoing positive trend in economic rule of law is noted as a supportive factor for growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan has raised its economic growth forecast for Indonesia in 2026 from 4.9% to 5.2% following better-than-expected GDP data for Q4 2025 [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The unexpected GDP growth in Q4 2025 has led to an upward revision of Indonesia's 2026 growth forecast [1] - Analyst Jin Tik Ngai indicates that growth momentum is expected to slow in early 2026 due to diminishing effects of fiscal spending and automotive sales incentives [1] Fiscal Policy Implications - Ngai suggests that if the government maintains a 3% fiscal deficit cap, the fiscal impulse for this year will weaken [1] - The unexpected growth in Q4 2025 is unlikely to prevent the central bank from further easing policies [1] Interest Rate Expectations - Despite stable exchange rates, Ngai anticipates two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the second quarter of 2026 [1]

Core Insights - The World Bank forecasts that Georgia's economy will grow by 5.5% in 2026, maintaining its leading position in the South Caucasus region [1] - Armenia is expected to grow by 4.9%, while Azerbaijan's growth is projected at 1.8% [1] - Economic growth in the South Caucasus region is anticipated to slow down to 3.3% in 2026 and further to 3.1% in 2027 [1]

Group 1 - The United Nations predicts that the global economic growth will slow down to 2.7% in 2026 [2] - Uruguay's GDP growth is forecasted to be 2.2% in 2025, followed by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027 [2] - The expected growth rates for major economies in 2026 are 2% for the United States, 4.6% for China, and 1.3% for the European Union [2] Group 2 - The overall growth for the Latin American region is projected to be 2.3% in 2026 [2]

Core Insights - Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are projected to rank among the top in GDP growth within the ECA region by 2026, according to the World Bank's January report [1] - The average economic growth rate for the ECA region is forecasted at 2.4% for 2026, supported by declining inflation, improved financial conditions, increased EU funding absorption, and rising defense spending [1] - Central Asia is expected to remain the fastest-growing sub-region in the ECA, with a combined GDP growth of 6.2% for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan in 2025, slowing to 5% in 2026 [1] Economic Projections - Kazakhstan's economic growth is anticipated to slow to 4.5% due to stabilized oil production and declining global commodity prices [1] - High gold prices are expected to support the economies of other Central Asian countries, with projected growth rates of 6.5% for Kyrgyzstan, 6.2% for Tajikistan, and 6% for Uzbekistan, keeping them among the leaders in regional GDP growth [1] Risks and Challenges - The economic outlook for the ECA region faces significant risks, including the potential escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could heighten geopolitical uncertainty and suppress economic activity [1] - High inflation may weaken consumer spending, and a slowdown in the Russian economy could lead to decreased export growth for the region [1] - Extreme weather events, such as frequent droughts and high temperatures, pose threats to agricultural production, water resources, and infrastructure, particularly impacting Central Asia [1]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered's global research head Eric Robertsen forecasts global economic growth to maintain at 3.4% in 2026, consistent with 2025 levels, driven increasingly by domestic demand and fiscal policy [1] Economic Growth Projections - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been revised upward from 1.7% to 2.3% for this year [1] - New economic growth drivers are beginning to form, indicating a shift towards domestic demand and fiscal policy as key growth contributors [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Inflationary pressures in the U.S. may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to further ease monetary policy, leading to expectations that there will be no interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year [1] - Policy uncertainties, the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, and the potential change in the Federal Reserve chair could impact investment sentiment and policy direction [1] Market Risks - The likelihood of extreme situations in global markets is increasing due to rising market risk factors, ongoing trade policy uncertainties, and expanding geopolitical risks [1]

Core Insights - Deloitte predicts that Ghana's GDP growth rate will reach 5.9% in 2026, an increase from 5.5% in 2025 [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Factors - The expansion of Ghana's economy is expected to be driven by improved exports from the Bibiani gold mine development in the western region [1] - Government initiatives such as the 24-hour economy plan and accelerated export development plan are also contributing to this growth [1] Group 2: Potential Challenges - Several factors may hinder these growth predictions, including climate events causing fluctuations in cocoa production, the spread of the swollen shoot virus, smuggling activities, and commodity price volatility [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Canada maintains the benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, aligning with market expectations and indicating high uncertainty regarding future policy direction [1] - Governor Macklem highlights that the Canadian economy is adapting to structural challenges posed by U.S. protectionism, making it difficult to predict the timing and direction of future interest rate adjustments [1][2] - The central bank suggests that any policy changes will depend on significant shifts in the economic outlook, reaffirming its readiness to respond as needed [1] Group 2 - The latest economic forecast projects a 1.1% growth for Canada in 2023, with a potential stagnation in Q4 2025, although the impact of tariffs is less severe than previously estimated [2] - The Bank of Canada refutes market expectations of a prolonged pause or inevitable rate cuts, emphasizing that the next move could be either a rate hike or a cut due to high uncertainty [2][3] Group 3 - The upcoming review of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) is identified as a critical risk factor for the economic outlook, with unpredictable U.S. trade policies and high geopolitical risks [3] - The labor market has already felt the impact of U.S. tariffs, particularly in early 2025, with affected industries reducing output and jobs [3] Group 4 - Inflation is expected to remain close to the 2% target, with upward risks from lower-than-expected economic slack and potential cost increases due to tariff-related adjustments [4] - The core inflation indicator has decreased to around 2.5%, while the potential economic growth rate for 2025 has been revised up to 2.3% from 1.6% [4] Group 5 - Household consumption is projected to recover moderately, supported by past rate cuts and rising disposable income, contributing 0.7 percentage points to GDP in 2026 and 0.6 percentage points in 2027 [5] - Business investment is expected to increase slightly, aided by government infrastructure spending, with fixed investment contributing 0.1 percentage points to GDP this year and 0.3 percentage points next year [5] - Structural adjustments in the Canadian economy, including trade diversification and internal market integration, are anticipated to take time to restore production capacity [5]