Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the gold market, specifically central bank and institutional gold demand in the London OTC market [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - The June nowcast for central bank and institutional gold demand was reported at **16 tonnes**, which is below the average forecast of **80 tonnes/month** for 2025. This aligns with the seasonal trend where purchases typically slow in summer and pick up again in September [2][3] - Year-to-date flows are at **66 tonnes/month**, slightly below the forecast, but the seasonal pattern supports the unchanged outlook for central bank demand [2][3] - Gold prices have stabilized in the range of **$3,200-$3,450/toz** since April, with a shift in price support composition. Earlier gains were based on speculative net longs, which have now returned to long-run averages, while ETF inflows have remained strong [5][6] - The forecast for gold prices is maintained at **$4,000/toz** by mid-2026, driven by strong central bank demand and ETF inflows, supported by Federal Reserve easing and a **30%** risk of a US recession that could further amplify inflows [6][10] Potential Risks and Market Dynamics - A potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia could lead to a short-term sell-off of approximately **3%** as speculators react, but it is not expected to have a lasting impact on the fundamentals of gold demand [11][12] - The precedent set by the freezing of Russian central bank reserves in 2022 has altered how reserve managers view asset safety, leading to expectations of continued strong gold accumulation by major Asian central banks for the next three years [12] - Recent survey data indicates that **95%** of surveyed central banks expect an increase in global gold holdings over the next 12 months, with **43%** planning to increase their own gold holdings, the highest since the survey began in 2018 [12] Supply Chain Insights - Sanctioned Russian-produced gold is reaching global markets through rerouting via countries like Armenia, Kazakhstan, and the UAE, with export volumes now exceeding pre-pandemic averages [13] - High gold prices, declining energy revenues, and increased defense financing needs have contributed to the rise in gold sales from Russia [13][15] Conclusion - The gold market is currently experiencing a seasonal lull in central bank demand, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to structural factors supporting demand. The dynamics of supply and geopolitical factors continue to play a significant role in shaping market conditions [2][12][13]