节日期间，COMEX期金涨势如虹、再创新高，现货金更是首度冲破每盎司4000美元关口。地缘与经济 风险攀升，叠加市场对美国降息的预期升温，驱动投资者蜂拥买入黄金避险。白银市场同样趋紧，租赁 利率走高，印度季节性需求旺盛助力涨势。多重利好共振助推金银上扬：美降息预期、经济前景不明、 央行大举扫货、ETF资金涌入及政府停摆引发的避险潮。 美国政府停摆持续至第八日，关键数据发布停滞，投资者转而依赖非官方渠道研判美联储政策动向。参 众两院围绕拨款法案激烈博弈却均告失败，共和党方案因未获60票支持而流产，民主党提案亦遭否决。 CME FedWatch工具显示，市场押注美联储10月降息25基点概率高达98%，12月再降25基点的概率达 90%。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 10月9日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 914.32 | 4.82% | 196141 | 251137 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，10月9日上海黄金现货价格报价910.89元/克，相较 ...

| 15:48 | | | ·II 4G C | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | & Binance BTCUSDT | 永续 | | | | | 124,710.0 | | | 24h最高价 125,8' 24h最低价 121,4: | | | $124710.0 +2.01% | | | 24h成交额 14,528,841, | | | 1小时 1分 15分 | | 1日 | 1周▽ 指标 | | | MA(5):115683.2 | MA(10):115083.0 MA(30):104906.9 | | 125 | | | | | | 125.87.7.3-> 18192 | | | | | | | 79 | | -38,545.0 | | | coinglass.c | | 比特币创出历史新高 受美国政府关门背景下更广泛的风险资产上涨提振。其他加密货币也大幅上涨，以太坊涨2.03%，报4588美元，SOL涨3.22%，狗狗币涨3.5%。 | 自选 ☆ | 持仓量 排序 | > | 41 | 分类 v | 交 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

The crypto market is up today, with the cryptocurrency market capitalization jumping by 4.2%, now standing at $4.17 trillion. 98 of the top 100 coins have appreciated over the past 24 hours. At the same time, the total crypto trading volume is at $215 billion, higher than what we’ve been seeing lately. TLDR: The crypto market capitalization is up 4.2% on Thursday morning (UTC); 98 of the top 100 coins are up, as are all top 10 coins, with DOGE at the top; BTC is up 4% to $118,682, and ETH is up 7% to $4,3 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold is currently outperforming Bitcoin in terms of ETF inflows, with gold nearing its strongest yearly gain while Bitcoin's momentum has cooled [2][4]. - On a 30-day rolling basis, inflows into gold funds are significantly surpassing those into Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting a shift in investor preference towards hard assets [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve's indication of potential rate cuts is contributing to the rising demand for both gold and Bitcoin, with experts suggesting that this trend may continue [2][3]. Group 2 - Deutsche Bank forecasts that Bitcoin could join gold on central bank balance sheets by 2030, highlighting a potential long-term integration of Bitcoin into traditional financial systems [3]. - Despite the positive outlook for gold, some analysts express caution regarding Bitcoin's future, suggesting that gold's recent performance may signal challenges for Bitcoin holders [5]. - A contrasting perspective from crypto analysts suggests that even if gold's value were to increase significantly relative to Bitcoin, it would still remain down 99.96% against Bitcoin over the long term [6].

资金流向方面，Wind数据显示，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）以连续5个交易日获资金净流入，累 计"吸金"超1.35亿元。 食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）紧密跟踪中证食品饮料指数，该指数以中证全指为样本空间，选取归属于 饮料、包装食品与肉类两个行业的上市公司股票作为成分股。十大重仓股包括贵州茅台、伊利股份、五 粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖、海天味业等多只大市值龙头股。此外，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）还配 置了场外联接基金（A: 001631；C: 001632）。 民生证券表示，白酒板块已进入底部配置区间，重视旺季消费脉冲事件的边际催化。进入8月以来，场 景释放和升学宴需求集中释放的背景下，渠道反馈宴席驱动下的开瓶动销环比修复等积极信号。中秋国 庆旺季将加速基本面筑底过程，预计2026年开启报表端修复。 9月23日，A股三大指数午后跌幅震荡收窄，食品饮料板块连续第二日回调。热门ETF中，食品饮料ETF 天弘（159736）截至发稿跌超1.3%，成交额近2000万元。 成分股方面，金字火腿涨停，百润股份、华康股份、百龙创园、欢乐家等多股上涨，白酒股集体下跌。 Wind实时申购赎回信息显示，截至发稿， ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, predicting a target price of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by structural increases in central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices have risen 6% since August 26, breaking out of a trading range of $3,200 to $3,450, currently trading around $3,650 [1]. - The recent price increase is attributed to increased ETF holdings, enhanced speculative positions, and expectations of a resurgence in central bank demand after the summer lull [1][3]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Goldman Sachs expects central bank gold purchases to continue for three years, driven by emerging market central banks' gold allocation being significantly lower than that of developed markets [5]. - In July, global central bank and institutional demand for gold in the London over-the-counter market was 48 tons, below Goldman Sachs' forecast of an average of 80 tons per month for 2025, aligning with seasonal trends [4]. Group 3: ETF and Speculative Positions - The increase in ETF holdings contributed approximately 1.5 percentage points to the recent 6% price rise, while speculative positions added about 1.2 percentage points [3]. - The report highlights that the anticipated easing of U.S. monetary policy and a 30% risk of recession in the next 12 months will support ETF inflows [4]. Group 4: Emerging Market Central Banks - The structural shift in global central bank gold purchases has increased nearly fivefold since 2022, with emerging market central banks actively diversifying their reserve assets [5]. - For instance, China's official gold reserves account for about 8% of its total reserves, significantly lower than the approximately 70% held by the U.S. and Germany, indicating room for growth [5].

Group 1 - Gold prices are on track for a fourth consecutive week of gains, rising approximately 1.8% this week and nearing $3,650 per ounce after reaching a record high on September 9 [1] - Silver prices have followed gold's trend, surpassing $42 per ounce, marking the highest level since 2011 [1] - The U.S. consumer price index data for August met expectations, providing the Federal Reserve with room to potentially lower borrowing costs after weak labor market data [1] Group 2 - Physical gold-backed ETFs have seen an increase of nearly 17 tons this week, indicating strong demand [2] - UBS has raised its year-end gold price target from $3,500 to $3,800 per ounce, citing robust ETF buying, declining interest rates, and a weakening dollar [2] - Gold is viewed as a hedge against the declining dollar, with President Trump advocating for lower policy rates, further enhancing gold's appeal [2]

Group 1 - The expectation of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in the U.S. is driving gold prices, which are poised for a fourth consecutive week of gains, supported by inflows into gold-backed ETFs [1][4] - Gold prices have surpassed $3,650 per ounce, rising nearly 2% this week and reaching a historical record during intraday trading [1][4] - Silver prices have also increased, breaking above $42 per ounce, marking the highest level since 2011 [1][4] Group 2 - Traders are pricing in at least a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve at the upcoming meeting, with potential for two more cuts by the end of the year [4] - Gold has risen nearly 40% this year, outperforming other market indices, including the S&P 500, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty, and ETF inflows [4] - Analyst Priyanka Sahdev from the Singapore Exchange notes that the risk of a buy-and-hold strategy increases at current price levels, leading investors to trade based on news and momentum rather than long-term holding [4] Group 3 - Gold-backed ETFs have added nearly 25 tons this week, indicating strong demand [5] - President Trump's efforts to expand influence over the Federal Reserve have also provided support for gold prices [5] - In Asia, Thai households are set to increase gold purchases for the fifth consecutive year due to currency appreciation making gold cheaper [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the gold market, specifically central bank and institutional gold demand in the London OTC market [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - The June nowcast for central bank and institutional gold demand was reported at **16 tonnes**, which is below the average forecast of **80 tonnes/month** for 2025. This aligns with the seasonal trend where purchases typically slow in summer and pick up again in September [2][3] - Year-to-date flows are at **66 tonnes/month**, slightly below the forecast, but the seasonal pattern supports the unchanged outlook for central bank demand [2][3] - Gold prices have stabilized in the range of **$3,200-$3,450/toz** since April, with a shift in price support composition. Earlier gains were based on speculative net longs, which have now returned to long-run averages, while ETF inflows have remained strong [5][6] - The forecast for gold prices is maintained at **$4,000/toz** by mid-2026, driven by strong central bank demand and ETF inflows, supported by Federal Reserve easing and a **30%** risk of a US recession that could further amplify inflows [6][10] Potential Risks and Market Dynamics - A potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia could lead to a short-term sell-off of approximately **3%** as speculators react, but it is not expected to have a lasting impact on the fundamentals of gold demand [11][12] - The precedent set by the freezing of Russian central bank reserves in 2022 has altered how reserve managers view asset safety, leading to expectations of continued strong gold accumulation by major Asian central banks for the next three years [12] - Recent survey data indicates that **95%** of surveyed central banks expect an increase in global gold holdings over the next 12 months, with **43%** planning to increase their own gold holdings, the highest since the survey began in 2018 [12] Supply Chain Insights - Sanctioned Russian-produced gold is reaching global markets through rerouting via countries like Armenia, Kazakhstan, and the UAE, with export volumes now exceeding pre-pandemic averages [13] - High gold prices, declining energy revenues, and increased defense financing needs have contributed to the rise in gold sales from Russia [13][15] Conclusion - The gold market is currently experiencing a seasonal lull in central bank demand, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to structural factors supporting demand. The dynamics of supply and geopolitical factors continue to play a significant role in shaping market conditions [2][12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The influx of southbound capital through ETFs is reshaping the pricing system of Hong Kong stocks, with significant net inflows and a shift in pricing power from foreign to domestic capital [1][7][9]. Group 1: Capital Inflows and ETF Performance - Southbound capital net bought HK stocks worth 358.76 billion HKD on August 15, marking a record high since the launch of the Stock Connect mechanism, with total net purchases reaching 938.9 billion HKD this year [1]. - Nine stock ETFs have received over 10 billion HKD in net inflows this year, with six being Hong Kong-themed ETFs, indicating a strong preference for these products [4]. - The performance of Hong Kong-themed ETFs has been robust, with significant increases in assets under management, such as the 177.03 billion HKD increase in the Fuguo CSI Hong Kong Internet ETF over the past month [2][3]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The internet, non-bank financials, and innovative pharmaceuticals are leading themes attracting capital, with ETFs in these sectors showing substantial growth [2][3]. - The Fuguo CSI Hong Kong Internet ETF has achieved a year-to-date return of 37.14%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [3]. - Non-bank financial ETFs have also shown impressive returns, with the E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment ETF yielding 64.89% this year, benefiting from increased market activity [3]. Group 3: Impact on Pricing Dynamics - The growing influence of ETFs is evident in the performance of H-shares of brokerage firms, which have outperformed their A-share counterparts, driven by increased ETF investments [6][8]. - The shift in pricing power is attributed to the significant net inflows from domestic capital, particularly through ETFs, which are beginning to dominate the pricing mechanism of Hong Kong stocks [7][8]. - The overall market is experiencing a valuation recovery, particularly in sectors like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, as the influence of foreign capital diminishes [8][9]. Group 4: Long-term Market Outlook - Analysts believe that the current valuation recovery in the Hong Kong market is just beginning, with ETFs seen as a key vehicle for investors to engage in this transformation [9][10]. - The Hong Kong market is positioned as a major offshore RMB market, benefiting from both southbound capital inflows and foreign investment interest, suggesting a more favorable long-term investment landscape [10][11].