Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending October 18 was 232,000 [1] - The number of continuing claims, which measures the level of individuals receiving unemployment benefits, rose to 1.957 million, slightly above the previous week's figure of 1.947 million [1] - Due to the federal government shutdown, the Department of Labor has not released its weekly unemployment benefit report, leading economists to rely on alternative state-level data to estimate weekly claims [1] Group 2 - The lack of official statistics has delayed several key economic reports, including the monthly employment report, forcing economists and investors to depend on private sector indicators to assess economic conditions [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it will release the Consumer Price Index for September this Friday to assist the Social Security Administration in calculating annual cost-of-living adjustments for beneficiaries [1]

Group 1 - The initial jobless claims for the week of November 1st were reported at 228,000, indicating stability in the job market, although this figure is on the higher side compared to recent numbers [2][4] - Continuing claims decreased by 18,000 for the week of October 25th, but remain elevated at 31,000, the highest level since 2019, suggesting ongoing challenges in the labor market [2][5] - The data does not currently reflect the significant layoffs announced by major companies, which may lead to job losses over time but have not yet translated into increased jobless claims [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal jobless claims were reported at 7,500, down from 10,000 the previous week, indicating some improvement in federal employment [5] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish members are interpreting the low jobless claims as a sign of stabilization in the job market, which may influence their stance on inflation and interest rates [5][6] - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut rates multiple times in upcoming meetings, with a 52% probability for December and a 73% probability for January [6]

Core Viewpoint - A technical error led to a significant underreporting of unemployment claims in North Carolina, with the actual number being over 19,000 higher than reported, affecting the overall national unemployment claims data [1] Group 1: Unemployment Claims Data - The report indicated that for the week ending September 6, the number of continuing unemployment claims in North Carolina was reported as only 205, the lowest level on record for the state, while the typical figure is close to 20,000 [1] - The North Carolina Department of Commerce stated that the reported figure was due to a "technical error," with the correct number being 19,355 [1] - Following the correction, JPMorgan economist Abhil Reinhart projected that the national continuing unemployment claims would increase by approximately 20,000, but would still remain at levels consistent with previous weeks [1]