美国财长贝森特：必须简化事情美联储有很多工具。美联储是时候退居幕后了。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美国九月非农就业数据在延迟近七周后终于公布，结果远超市场预期。新增就业人数达到十一点九万，显著高于此前经济学家预估的五万。然而，同一份报 告中的失业率却意外攀升至百分之四点四，创下二零二一年十月以来的最高水平，凸显出美国劳动力市场的复杂局面。 市场对美联储政策的预期也随之调整。利率互换市场数据显示，美联储十二月降息二十五个基点的概率约为百分之三十，较此前有所下降。这一变化反映了 市场在矛盾数据中的谨慎心态。美联储内部对于下一步行动也存在明显分歧，十月会议纪要显示官员们对十二月是否降息持有"强烈不同观点"。 尽管美国就业数据表面强劲，但分析人士指出其背后隐藏的软肋。华泰期货研究报告认为，本次非农呈现"表面稳、内里软"的特征。新增岗位反弹伴随前期 数据下修与失业率上升，反映企业招聘意愿偏谨慎。而求职人数增长快于岗位扩张，导致新增就业与失业率同步上行的矛盾现象。 薪资增长方面，九月美国平均时薪环比上升百分之零点二，略低于预期，同比涨幅为百分之三点八。薪资增速的放缓与失业率的上升共同表明，美国劳动力 市场虽然保持一定韧性，但内部压力正在积累。 这份报告的特殊性在于，它是美联储十二月会议前能获得的最后一份完整就业数据。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a shift in its committee composition, which may influence interest rate policies in the upcoming year, particularly with the retirement of Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, a known interest rate hawk [1][3]. Group 1: Changes in Fed Composition - Raphael Bostic's retirement in February opens a key position that could be filled by a more dovish appointee, potentially leading to a tilt towards more interest rate cuts [1][2]. - The Atlanta Fed does not have a voting role until 2027, but its non-voting members can still significantly impact policy discussions [2][3]. - The reappointment of all 12 regional Fed bank presidents is set to occur in March, a process that has historically been routine but may face scrutiny under the current administration [3]. Group 2: Political Influences - Questions have emerged regarding the potential influence of the Trump administration on the reappointment process of Fed officials [4]. - A Supreme Court ruling in January regarding the firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook could create another vacancy, allowing for a new appointment aligned with lower interest rate views [5]. - Analysts express skepticism about significant changes in the Fed's composition due to political pressures, suggesting that the process will remain stable [6][7]. Group 3: Future Leadership - The impending nomination of a new Fed Chair to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, is crucial, with candidates likely to favor lower interest rates [8]. - Potential nominees include current Fed governors and other economic leaders, all of whom are expected to adopt a more dovish stance on interest rates [8].

the uh lack of jobs data from the government. Steve Leeman or St. Eve uh Leeman, it was split on the prompter and I I just read what's there.Uh Saint Eve uh has been doing his own uh data collection and he joins us now with some of his findings. Good morning. >> Jobless claims from individual state or state reports.uh uh Department of Labor puts out some of this data and we have it now from Haver which seasonally adjusted showing uh pretty much sta stable with some improvement actually initial claims for th ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut this year, and has decided to end its balance sheet reduction program by December [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates appears minor but reflects significant internal disagreements, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others, including the chair, oppose further reductions [4]. - The end of the balance sheet reduction, which began in June 2022, will see the proceeds from MBS redemptions reinvested into short-term U.S. Treasury securities [2]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Dynamics - The job market shows signs of strain, with a slowdown in employment growth and increasing layoff announcements, particularly affecting low-income households [6]. - Inflation remains a concern, driven by rising tariffs that have increased the prices of various goods, complicating the Fed's ability to manage economic stability [6][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Market reactions to the Fed's announcements have been mixed, with the Dow and S&P 500 experiencing slight declines while the Nasdaq reached a new closing high, indicating varied interpretations of the Fed's policies [11]. - There is a prevailing expectation among market participants that the Fed may cut rates by another 25 basis points in December, but uncertainty remains due to internal divisions within the Fed and the impact of government shutdowns on economic data [13][16].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR's Q3 GAAP net income available to common stockholders was $156.3 million or $1.49 per common share, with net interest income at $38.5 million and distributable earnings at $75.3 million or $0.72 per common share [4] - Total economic return for the quarter was 7.75%, with quarter-end book value at $17.49 per common share, reflecting a 3.5% increase from June 30 and a 2.8% increase from August 8 [4][5] - The most recent estimate of book value as of October 21 was $17.5 per common share, including the accrual of the October common dividend of $0.24 per share [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR raised approximately $99.5 million by issuing about 6 million shares of common stock through an after-market offering program during Q3 [5] - The company paid monthly common stock dividends of $0.24 per share for a total of $0.72 for the quarter [5][6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Federal Reserve resumed its easing cycle with a 25 basis point cut in September, leading to a constructive environment for agency MBS as financing conditions improved [8] - Treasury yields declined, and agency MBS spreads tightened by roughly 20 basis points, with volatility falling to its lowest level since 2022 [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ARMOUR's strategy focuses on growing and deploying capital thoughtfully during spread dislocations while maintaining robust liquidity and dynamically adjusting hedges for disciplined risk management [20] - The company is positioned to benefit from potential GSE reforms, which could transform the current headwinds into tailwinds for MBS investors [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that macro and political visibility has become more clouded due to the federal government shutdown, which delayed key data releases and introduced uncertainty to growth forecasts [9] - Despite the uncertainty, the market expects an easing bias through year-end, likely redirecting liquidity into agency MBS [10] Other Important Information - ARMOUR's portfolio is entirely invested in Agency CMBS and U.S. Treasuries, with a net duration of 0.2 years and implied leverage of 8.1x [12] - The aggregate portfolio prepayment rates rose to 9.6 CPR in October, a 19% increase from the Q3 average of 8.1 CPR, with expectations of a similar uptick in November [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current returns on incremental investments and hedge choices - Management indicated expected ROEs in the 16% to 18% range, slightly lower than previous quarters due to tight mortgage spreads [23][24] Question: Outlook for swap spreads and mortgage spreads on an OAS basis - Management expects swap spreads to continue normalizing, which would be a tailwind for the portfolio [26] Question: Thoughts on GSE deregulation and its implementation - Management acknowledged various levers the administration could pull to reduce borrower rates, indicating a balance between making GSEs attractive and lowering mortgage rates [31] Question: Hedge ratio changes and confidence in easing activity - Management explained that the hedge ratio is adjusted based on duration targets across the curve, reflecting a balanced view with a bias towards Fed easing [33][35] Question: Impact of interest rate volatility on MBS - Management noted that while volatility has decreased, they expect it to continue declining in the medium term, which could affect the valuation of options [41][43]

Market Overview - The market is nearing all-time highs as the third quarter ends, with expectations of continued upward movement despite potential seasonal weaknesses in September and October [1][2] - There is a belief that the current bull market still has room to grow, with anticipated pauses and corrections in the 10% to 15% range [3][4] Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's actions are crucial; if the economy begins to reheat and inflation pressures rise, concerns about rate hikes may emerge [9][10] - The current cooling phase of the economy allows for a stable market environment, provided the Fed maintains a patient approach [11] Sector Insights - Financials and healthcare sectors are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities, with financials benefiting from a lighter regulatory environment [12][14] - Healthcare valuations are considered low, making it an appealing sector for investment, despite potential political risks related to drug pricing [13][15] China Market Dynamics - China's economy shows signs of improvement, but there are concerns about the reliability of data and the government's influence on economic indicators [17] - Increased competition in the AI sector from China may present both risks and opportunities for the U.S. market, with potential upside in the competitive landscape [18] Gold Market Analysis - Gold has outperformed stocks and is expected to maintain strong demand due to global currency volatility and central bank actions [19][20] - While significant price increases in gold are not anticipated, it is viewed as a stable investment for diversification, with less volatility compared to the stock market [21][22]

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase, opening at $3410.91 per ounce and closing at $3445.48 per ounce, with a peak of $3447.63 per ounce on August 29 [1]. Economic Data - In July, U.S. personal spending rose by 0.5%, matching market expectations, while the core PCE price index year-on-year was recorded at 2.9%, also in line with expectations [2]. - The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to rise, with 63% of consumers anticipating an increase in the unemployment rate over the next year, reflecting growing concerns about the economic outlook [4]. Consumer Confidence - The final consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for August dropped to 58.2, down from 61.7 in July, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment [3][4]. - Concerns over high prices have led to a decrease in the conditions for purchasing durable goods, reaching a one-year low [3]. Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is at 12.6%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is at 87.4% [8]. - Federal Reserve officials are facing a tension between inflation targets and labor market conditions, with discussions around potential policy adjustments [4]. Trade and Tariff Developments - A U.S. appeals court ruled that many of President Trump's global tariff measures are illegal, stating that the president exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [6]. - The court's decision allows the tariffs to remain in effect until October 14, pending an appeal to the Supreme Court [6]. Geopolitical Context - The European Commission has plans to send troops to Ukraine, with ongoing discussions with the U.S. regarding support for Ukraine's armed forces [7]. - Germany and France are advocating for secondary sanctions aimed at weakening Russia's war funding capabilities [7]. Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 9.74 tons, bringing the total to 977.68 tons [7].

Economic Outlook - The private sector employment growth is expected to further slow down in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2% due to weak labor growth driven by a sharp decline in net immigration [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's independence is facing challenges, particularly from Trump, which is reflected in the steepening of the Treasury yield curve, increasing uncertainty in policy direction [1][4] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, remaining stable compared to June [2] - Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% month-on-month and accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year, the highest level since February [2][3] - Consumer spending grew by 0.5% in July, indicating resilience in demand despite persistent inflation, although consumer confidence data from the University of Michigan fell short of expectations [2][3] Stock Market Trends - The recent week saw a net inflow of $571 million into U.S. equity funds, reversing the previous week's outflow of $2.39 billion [6] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced a four-month consecutive rise, although there was a late-week sell-off [5][6] - Concerns over the artificial intelligence sector have emerged, particularly following Nvidia's earnings report, which did not meet high investor expectations, leading to a 5% drop in the company's stock [6] Sector Performance - The utilities sector saw the largest decline at 2.1%, followed by consumer goods at 1.7% and industrials at 0.8%, while the energy sector rose by 2.5% [6] - The market is closely monitoring the performance of major technology stocks, especially in the AI industry, amid warnings of a potential AI bubble [6]

Group 1 - Investors are reassessing the significant market rally from last Friday, as Jerome Powell did not make any new strong commitments [1] - The market experienced a "risk appetite frenzy" last Friday, with major indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 rising approximately 1.75%, while small-cap stocks surged nearly 4% [3] - By Monday, the market sentiment shifted from excitement to hesitation, leading to declines in major indices, with the Dow dropping 350 points (0.8%) and the S&P 500 down 28 points (0.4%) [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is currently experiencing a divide, with some officials ready to cut rates in response to economic weakness, while others remain unconvinced [5] - Despite signs of a weakening job market, inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5] - The upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index report is expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, indicating that the battle against inflation is far from over [5][6] Group 3 - Market focus has shifted from whether the Fed will cut rates in September to how aggressive the Fed will be in the coming months, with expectations now leaning towards a symbolic 25 basis point cut [6] - The change in rate cut expectations suggests that investors will likely adjust stock valuations downward until a clearer market direction is established [6]