鲍威尔在讲话中说，今年以来，在经济政策全面变革的背景下，美国经济展现出韧性。就美联储的双重 使命目标而言，劳动力市场仍接近就业最大化，通货膨胀率虽仍略有上升，但已较疫情后高点大幅回 落。与此同时，风险平衡似乎正在发生变化。 中新社纽约8月22日电 (记者 王帆)美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔22日在怀俄明州举行的杰克逊霍尔全 球央行年度经济政策研讨会上表示，美联储可能需要调整政策立场。这一表态被市场解读为降息信号。 在鲍威尔讲话开始后，美国股市三大指数盘中集体上涨。《华尔街日报》说，鲍威尔的讲话为美联储重 启降息铺平了道路。他指出，尽管劳动力市场看似稳定，但"这是一种奇怪的平衡"，是由劳动力供需同 时放缓造成的。 彭博社报道说，尽管对通胀的担忧依然存在，但劳动力市场的风险正在上升。一些美联储官员警告称， 就业市场初现的疲软迹象可能会演变成经济衰退。一旦劳动力市场的风险兑现，美国可能面临大规模裁 员和失业率上升。 市场交易员普遍预测，美联储将在9月下调联邦基金利率目标区间至少25个基点。芝商所利率期货价格 显示，9月降息25个基点的概率目前已升至89.1%。 杰克逊霍尔全球央行年度经济政策研讨会被外界视作各国央行 ...

来源：滚动播报 1. 利率指引：鲍威尔为美联储9月降息敞开大门，他表示：基线前景和风险平衡的变化可能需要我们调 整政策立场。 2. 就业市场：劳动力市场仍接近充分就业水平。就业市场的平衡源于劳动力供需两端的 显著放缓，这种异常情况意味着就业下行风险正在上升。 3. 通胀前景：短期内通胀风险偏上行。基于 市场和调查的长期通胀预期指标似乎仍保持稳定。不会允许价格水平的一次性上涨演变为持续性通胀问 题。 4. 关税影响：关税对消费价格的影响现已清晰显现，预计未来几个月这种影响将持续累积，但具 体时机与幅度仍存在高度不确定性。关税的影响将相对短暂，属于价格水平的一次性变动。 5. 框架调 整：美联储采用新的政策框架，删除了关于追求"通胀在长期内平均达到2%"的表述，以及将就业决策 建立在"与最大就业水平的缺口"评估上的表述。 ...

鲍威尔表示，失业率保持稳定，这让美联储在考虑调整政策立场时能够"谨慎行事"。美联储不能放任一 次性的物价上涨演变为持续的通胀问题。全新的政策框架旨在适应多种经济状况，而当前形势表明就业 面临下行风险。就业增长放缓并未在劳动力市场中释放出足够大的闲置容量，这是美联储希望尽力避免 的情况。 鲍威尔还提到，关税可能会引发持久性通胀，不过从合理的基本情景来看，关税对价格的影响是短暂 的。最新数据显示，7月份美国个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数同比上涨2.6%，核心PCE物价指数上涨 2.9%。由此可见，美联储目前正面临"严峻形势"。 投资者最为关注的是鲍威尔对美联储未来政策路径的看法，尤其是关于9月降息与否的线索。上述讲话 发布后，交易员预计9月美联储降息的概率约为90%，而鲍威尔讲话前这一概率为75%。交易员预计美 联储年底前降息两次。 北京时间8月22日22时，美联储主席鲍威尔在一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表讲话时表示， 风险平衡的转变或许意味着需要对政策做出调整。当前，美国GDP增长明显放缓，这反映出消费者支出 也在走弱。美联储将摒弃2020年采用的灵活平均通胀目标框架，并且从该框架中删除了有关利率有效下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's decisions on the U.S. economy, highlighting his dual approach of aggressive monetary easing during the pandemic and subsequent interest rate hikes to combat inflation [1] Group 1: Powell's Leadership - Jerome Powell has served as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve for eight years, navigating through challenging economic conditions [1] - His decisive actions during the COVID-19 pandemic, including lowering interest rates and injecting liquidity, were crucial in stabilizing the U.S. economy [1] - Powell's strategy of "first aid, then inflation control" has not only stabilized the U.S. economy but also set a precedent for global economic policy responses [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The aggressive monetary policies implemented by Powell helped many businesses survive during the economic downturn caused by the pandemic [1] - The subsequent shift to raising interest rates was a necessary response to rising inflation, demonstrating Powell's ability to adapt to changing economic conditions [1] - Powell's leadership has reinforced the Federal Reserve's role as a stabilizing force in the economy, earning him recognition for his capability during turbulent times [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, signaling a cautious stance on monetary policy amid signs of economic slowdown [3][4] - The Fed acknowledges a "moderate slowdown" in the U.S. economy expected in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift from previous statements emphasizing "robust growth" [3][4] - Internal divisions within the Fed are emerging, with two voting members expressing support for rate cuts, contrasting with the more cautious outlook of other officials [3][4] Group 2 - The market has partially priced in expectations for rate cuts later this year, with analysts divided on the likelihood of such actions given current inflation pressures and labor market strength [4][5] - The dynamics of market expectations versus the Fed's actual policy decisions may continue to influence gold market sentiment, with potential for further upward momentum if economic data supports a slowdown [5] - Gold is currently at a critical technical level around $3,300 per ounce, with its future direction heavily dependent on Fed policy and market interpretations of interest rate paths [5]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the official non-farm payroll data and the ADP private sector employment report indicates a complex situation in the U.S. labor market, raising questions about which data to trust [1][5]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the market expectation of 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% in May to 4.1% [1]. - The ADP report, however, showed a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with an expected increase of 98,000 jobs [1][2]. - The government sector added 73,000 jobs in June, accounting for nearly half of the total non-farm employment growth, with significant contributions from state and local education sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The private sector only added 74,000 jobs, with the goods-producing sector contributing a mere 6,000 jobs, while the service sector added 68,000 jobs, primarily in healthcare and social assistance [3]. - Analysts suggest that the unusual growth in government employment may be due to seasonal adjustment issues, particularly related to the school year [3]. Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - Despite the unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, this is attributed to a decline in the labor force participation rate, which fell from 62.4% in May to 62.3% in June [4]. - Over the past two months, household surveys indicated a reduction of 603,000 jobs, while the labor force shrank by 755,000, leading to a decrease in the unemployment rate [4]. - Analysts warn that if the anticipated rise in unemployment is concentrated in upcoming reports, it could pose dovish risks for Federal Reserve policy [7]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The unexpected decline in the unemployment rate may lead Federal Reserve officials to adopt a wait-and-see approach in their upcoming meetings, although a rate cut of 25 basis points is still expected to begin in September [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the situation is continuously evolving, and the Fed's approach is also being adjusted accordingly [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is actively monitoring economic developments and is prepared to modify its strategies in response to changing conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is in a favorable position to further understand potential economic trends before making policy adjustments [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is currently assessing economic developments before implementing any changes to its policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the current economic position allows for a wait-and-see approach before making any adjustments to policy, which may not be well-received by the White House [1] Group 1 - Powell's statement suggests a cautious stance on monetary policy, emphasizing the need for further understanding of economic trends before any changes are made [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the current position allows for waiting to gather more information before making any adjustments [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is in a favorable position regarding monetary policy adjustments [1] - There is an emphasis on the importance of obtaining additional information before proceeding with any changes [1]