Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton prices are fluctuating narrowly between 66 - 67 cents, lacking positive support. Attention should be paid to whether it can hold the support level of 66 cents/pound. The domestic cotton futures are falling. The expected high - yield and large - scale listing of new cotton, along with the weak purchasing enthusiasm of ginning mills, are pressuring the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. The uncertainty of new cotton cost is the main pressure. However, if the demand is stable and the spot maintains a high basis, the point - pricing demand is expected to support the Zhengzhou cotton futures 01 contract after the new cotton cost is determined. Before the National Day holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and after the holiday, the trend will still be dominated by the new cotton cost, with limited impact from the overseas market during the holiday [1][4][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data | Futures | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 66.35 | 67.02 | 66.03 | 66.33 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 91806 | - 9314 | 165485 | 9600 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 13740 | 13755 | 13390 | 13405 | - 315 | - 2.30 | 1198135 | 61293 | 534819 | 25570 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 19765 | 19905 | 19590 | 19610 | - 125 | - 0.63 | 57369 | - 1233 | 6640 | - 10804 | [4] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: It is fluctuating narrowly between 66 - 67 cents, affected by the trends of crude oil and other agricultural products. The fundamental news is weak, and the weekly export sales data of US cotton has deteriorated again [4]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending September 18, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 1.95 tons, a 54% week - on - week decrease and a 53% decrease compared to the four - week average. There was no new signing for 2026/27 US upland cotton. The weekly shipment of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 3.11 tons, a 14% week - on - week increase and a 6% increase compared to the four - week average. The total signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 94.65 tons, accounting for 36% of the annual forecasted total export volume; the cumulative export shipment volume was 21.98 tons, accounting for 23% of the annual total signing volume [5]. - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: The rupee has depreciated. The ex - factory price of S - 6 has dropped by 50 rupees/candy to 55,250 rupees/candy (about 79.5 cents/pound), and the quotation of J - 34 in Punjab has dropped by 200 rupees/maund to 5,465 rupees/maund (about 74.85 cents/pound) [6]. - **Brazil**: The subsequent shipment is expected to increase significantly. The estimated total output of 2024/25 cotton is 411 tons. The export shipment volume in the first two weeks of September was about 6.4 tons, and the progress was slower year - on - year, but it is expected to increase significantly later [7]. - **Australia**: There is expected to be more rainfall in Q4. The early planting scale in Queensland has expanded. The reservoir storage capacity in the Murray - Darling Basin has recovered to 70% of the total capacity [7]. - **Pakistan**: The demand for cotton imports is still average. The estimated total output of this year's cotton is 6 - 7 million bales. The domestic cotton supply is stable, and the spinning mills have little motivation to purchase from the international market [8]. - **Bangladesh**: The demand for cotton imports has slowed down. The import volume in August was 13.3 tons, slightly lower than that in July and a 12% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Textile Industry Startup Rates in Southeast Asia**: As of the week ending September 26, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 69.5%, 62.5%, and 65% respectively [9]. 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - **Spot and Pre - sale**: The spot trading of cotton is light, while the pre - sale of new cotton is relatively good. The spot price center has moved down, and the spot inventory has decreased. The pre - sale price of new cotton in 2025/26 is between 14700 - 15000 yuan/ton [10]. - **Seed Cotton Purchase**: The lower limit of the purchase price of seed cotton has been lowered. The purchase volume is small, and the listing progress is slower than expected. The purchase price for a certain volume is around 6.3 - 6.45 yuan/kg, and the theoretical cost is mainly between 14700 - 15000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 26, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 3397 lots, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 12 lots, totaling 3409 lots, equivalent to 143,178 tons [11]. - **Downstream Situation**: - **Cotton Yarn Market**: The trading is average, with seasonal demand as the main factor. The new orders are few. The price is stable with a slight decline. The cash flow of enterprises has improved. The startup rate is stable, and the inventory reduction has slowed down [12]. - **Cotton Grey Cloth Market**: The trading is stable, with a weakening trend in some areas. The price is weak. The orders are mainly small - scale, and the subsequent orders are insufficient. The inventory reduction has slowed down. The average startup level of weaving factories is 50% - 60%, and some factories are reducing production [12]. 3.3. Operation Suggestions - For ICE cotton futures, pay attention to whether it can hold the support level of 66 cents/pound. For domestic cotton futures, focus on the transaction price of new seed cotton. Before the National Day holiday, expect a weak and volatile trend, and after the holiday, the trend will be dominated by the new cotton cost, with limited impact from the overseas market during the holiday [17].