周度期货价量总览 商品类别 品种 周收盘价 周涨跌幅 20日年化波动率 波动率变化(%) 投机度 趋势度 资金变动 黄金 953.92 2.91% 18.13% -17.26% 1.54 0.29 60.70 白银 12,727.00 8.96% 34.29% -3.88% 4.06 0.54 80.37 铜 87,430.00 2.07% 10.59% -27.13% 0.47 0.22 25.29 镍 117,080.00 2.66% 12.30% 8.17% 0.93 0.25 -12.47 铝 21,610.00 1.27% 11.29% -7.78% 0.59 0.13 -2.54 锡 305,040.00 4.69% 16.65% -1.99% 2.75 0.27 14.98 锌 22,425.00 0.16% 7.32% -4.04% 0.99 0.06 -2.05 铅 17,090.00 -0.44% 8.56% 3.84% 0.88 -0.14 -0.48 工业硅 9,130.00 1.90% 26.82% -4.06% 1.09 0.24 -3.47 螺纹钢 3,110.00 1.73% ...

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、国际市场 | | 3 | | | | 三、美国 4 | | 四、其他国家 | | 4 | | 五、国内市场 | | 6 | | 第三部分 | | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | | | | 免责声明 10 | 棉系板块研发报告 棉系 12 月报 2025 年 11 月 28 基本面矛盾不大 棉价区间震荡 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 11 月棉花期货价格区间震荡为主，供应端随着新棉收购基本进入尾声， 收购成本区域固化，目前普遍收购价格在 6.1-6.4 元/公斤；需求端下游整 体订单表现一般，对盘面提振有限。 10 月美棉基本面变化不大，预计整体走势仍然以区间震荡为主。 【市场展望】 基本面方面，随着新花开始大量上市，供应端预计维持宽松局面，近期 盘面有所上涨，考虑到当前盘面价格接近收购成本，市场可能会有一定的卖 套保压力。需求端来看， ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 28 日星期五 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 郑棉总成交 284007 手，持仓 954257 手。结算价 1 月 13635 元/吨，5 月 13595 元 /吨，9 月 13715 元/吨。 ICE12 月合约结算价 62.77 涨 34 点，3 月 64.57 涨 34 点，5 月 65.75 涨 32 点； 成交约 3.5 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1、11 月 24 日北疆博州区域纺企采购 31 级双 29 含杂 2.8%以内机采新棉疆内库 2601 合约基差成交价 1000-1100 元/吨，提货价在 14600-14750 元/吨，较前一日 上涨 50-80 元/吨。 2、2025 年 8 月，美国 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-28 棉价震荡上行，关注套保压力 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13640元/吨，较前一日变动+15元/吨，幅度+0.11%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14716元/吨，较前一日变动+16元/吨，现货基差CF01+1076，较前一日变动+1；3128B棉全国均价14891元/吨， 较前一日变动+9元/吨，现货基差CF01+1251，较前一日变动-6。 近期市场资讯，10月孟加拉棉花进口约11.0万吨，环比（15.2万吨）减少27.5%，同比（14.9万吨）减少26.0%，是 自2023年10月以来最小月度进口量。从当月进口来源来看，西非棉进口量占首位，占总进口量的29%；其次是巴西 棉，占比为21%；澳棉排第三，占比为17%。从累计情况来看，2025/26年度（2025年8月-2026年7月）孟加拉国棉 花累计进口量约为39.6万吨，同比减少11%。从进口来源国来看，累计进口西非棉占比仍为最高，达27%；其次为 巴西棉，占比约23%；澳棉排第三，占比为17%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。国际方面，USDA报告大幅上调2025/26 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 27, 2025 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 3875.26, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 12875.19, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.44% to 3031.30. The trading volume of the two markets was 1709.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 73.6 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300: It closed at 4515.40, a decrease of 2.22 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1. Energy Futures - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1652.3, a rise of 0.3. Port spot prices fell, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at 1460 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Supply increased as coking enterprises' costs improved, and demand was weak as steel mills' profitability was poor and maintenance expanded [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index closed at 1114.0 yuan, a decrease of 0.6. Prices in some regions changed, with Shanxi's main coking coal down 90 yuan to 1580 yuan/ton. Supply recovered as coal mines resumed production, and there was pressure on coal mine shipments [3][4]. 2.2. Agricultural Futures - Zhengzhou Sugar: The 2601 contract rose slightly due to factors such as the rebound of US sugar and short - covering. The 2025/26 global sugar supply is expected to have a surplus of 3.7 million tons, the largest since 2017/18. Brazil's sugarcane production is expected to be 659 million tons, and the Philippines' raw sugar production is expected to be 2.09 million tons [4]. - Rubber: Affected by Thailand's weather warning and potential output loss of up to 90,000 tons, the Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly. Global light - vehicle sales showed growth in October [6]. - Live Hogs: The LH2601 contract rose 0.39% to 11585 yuan/ton. The supply was strong due to high - level sow inventory and concentrated slaughter, while demand was weak, and the market was in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern [6]. - Soybean Meal: The M2601 contract rose 1.33% to 3055 yuan/ton. The US soybean market was closed on November 27. China's soybean purchases from the US were close to 2 million tons. Brazil's soybean planting rate was 81%, lower than last year. Domestic supply improved, and the futures price had limited upward drive [6]. - Palm Oil: The P2601 contract rose 1.04% to 8528. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 were estimated to be 583,574 tons, a 40.77% decrease from the previous month [6]. 2.3. Metal Futures - Shanghai Copper: The 2601 contract rose 0.35% to 86990 yuan/ton. Supply was tight due to factors such as smelter maintenance and mine accidents, and demand was strong in new - energy and other fields. However, high prices and potential factors might limit the increase [6][7]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract closed at 13710 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory increased by 65 lots, and the purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.18 yuan/kg [7]. - Logs: The 2601 contract closed at 765, with an increase of 106 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices and imports [7]. - Iron Ore: The 2601 contract rose 0.44% to 799.5 yuan. Shipping volume decreased, and port and steel mill inventories declined. The price was in a volatile trend [7]. - Asphalt: The 2601 contract fell 1.41% to 3007 yuan. December's production plan decreased, inventory was being reduced, and demand was in the off - season, with prices in a volatile state [7]. - Steel: The rb2601 closed at 3093 yuan/ton, and hc2601 at 3293 yuan/ton. Production and consumption decreased, and inventory continued to decline. The market was in a supply - and - demand double - weak pattern [7]. - Alumina: The ao2601 closed at 2720 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections affected the north, inventory increased slightly, and the market was sluggish [7]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The al2601 closed at 21500 yuan/ton. The macro - market sentiment improved, but demand was cautious. Supply was stable, and social inventory continued to decrease [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 28, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][20][26][36][46] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data for different contract spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of May - January was 16 yuan/ton, and the basis of September - January was 6 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of energy commodities such as fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are provided. For example, on November 27, the basis of fuel oil was - 10.13 yuan/ton, and the ratio of INE crude oil to asphalt was 0.1475 [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of LLDPE was 56 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2214 yuan/ton [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September(10) - January, September(10) - May) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of rebar was 16 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.88 [19] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are given. For example, on November 27, the basis of rebar was 127.0 yuan/ton [20] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of copper was 30 yuan/ton [29] 3.4.2 London Market - On November 27, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 16.56, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.95 [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are given. For example, on November 27, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 86 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) of various agricultural products are presented. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 51 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on November 27, 2025, are provided. For example, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.83 [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of CSI 300 was 22.80 [47] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 152 [47]

2025年11月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆休市，缺乏指引 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：关注现货基差走势 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加量，存在预期支撑 | 10 | | 生猪：限仓驱动近端期现背离 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 11 月 28 日 棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹 豆油：区间震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,528 | 1.04% | 8,598 | 0.82% | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold Market** - Market Performance: On Thursday, precious metal prices fluctuated, with London gold reaching $4150 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: Putin discussed a peace plan, China's industrial profits showed changes, and there were various inventory changes in gold and silver [2]. - Trading Strategy: Buy gold at the lower support level, and short - term long silver due to overseas market tensions [2]. - **Silver Market** - Market Performance: Reflects in inventory and price changes in different markets [2]. - Fundamentals: Inventory changes in multiple regions and import data from India [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term long due to overseas market tensions [2]. Base Metals - **Aluminum** - Market Performance: The electrolytic aluminum main contract closed +0.21% at 21,500 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 150 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: High - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants, stable weekly aluminum product start - up rate [3]. - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to a warm macro - environment, inventory reduction, and expanding spot discounts [3]. - **Alumina** - Market Performance: The main contract closed +0.15% at 2724 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 18 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: No long - cycle maintenance and production reduction, high - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants [3]. - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating before large - scale production cuts due to supply - demand surplus and cost support [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - Market Performance: The main 01 contract closed at 9115 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton, with a decrease in positions and funds [3]. - Fundamentals: Decrease in furnace start - up, expected decline in south - west start - up rate, and different demand situations in downstream industries [3]. - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to trade between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Polysilicon** - Market Performance: The main 01 contract closed at 55235 yuan/ton, down 660 yuan/ton, with changes in positions and funds [4]. - Fundamentals: Slight decline in weekly production, inventory accumulation, and weakening demand in downstream industries [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to expected decline in downstream production and market uncertainties [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Soybean Meal** - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans are in short - term oscillation [5]. - Fundamentals: Near - term supply contraction, long - term large supply from South America, strong US soybean crushing, and uncertain exports [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for new drivers in the US soybean market, and the domestic market's mid - term trend depends on tariff policies and production [5]. - **Corn** - Market Performance: Corn futures prices fluctuate narrowly, with different trends in spot prices in North and Northeast China [5]. - Fundamentals: Supply delay due to weather, low inventory, strong demand from deep - processing industries, and expected increase in new - crop production [5]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to selling hedging opportunities as Northeast supply increases [5]. - **Fats and Oils** - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose due to flood concerns [5]. - Fundamentals: High production in the producing areas, expected inventory accumulation in the near term, and seasonal production reduction in the long term [5]. - Trading Strategy: Trade the flood - related disturbances and pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [5]. - **Sugar** - Market Performance: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5411 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [5]. - Fundamentals: International sugar prices are expected to decline in the long term, and the domestic market faces pressure in the fourth quarter [5]. - Trading Strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - **Cotton** - Market Performance: US cotton futures prices rebounded overnight, and international crude oil prices stopped falling [6]. - Fundamentals: Changes in international cotton export and import data, and stable domestic downstream demand [6]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices, with a strategy in the 13600 - 13900 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Eggs** - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded, and spot prices were stable [6]. - Fundamentals: Decrease in laying hen inventory, increased stocking by traders, and short - term strong egg prices with limited sustainability [6]. - Trading Strategy: Egg futures prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Pigs** - Market Performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, and spot prices continued to fall [6]. - Fundamentals: Abundant pig supply, expected seasonal increase in demand, and possible concentrated slaughter near the winter solstice [6]. - Trading Strategy: Pig futures prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE** - Market Performance: The main contract continued to decline slightly, with stable basis and general market transactions [7]. - Fundamentals: New device production, reduced supply pressure, and weakening downstream demand [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term weak oscillation, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct month - spread reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PVC** - Market Performance: V01 closed at 4546, up 1% [7]. - Fundamentals: Low prices, increased inventory, increased supply, and weak demand [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short or conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [7]. - **PTA** - Market Performance: PX and PTA prices showed certain trends, with a specific spot basis [8]. - Fundamentals: High domestic PX supply, short - term PTA supply decline, and overall supply - demand situations in related industries [8]. - Trading Strategy: Take profit on PX long positions, and stop loss on PTA processing - fee short positions [8]. - **Rubber** - Market Performance: RU2601 oscillated upward, with continued night - session gains [8]. - Fundamentals: Stable raw material prices, different production situations in tire factories [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term strong oscillation due to rainfall affecting production [8]. - **Glass** - Market Performance: FG01 closed at 1060, up 1.9% [8]. - Fundamentals: Bottom - up rebound due to cold - repair and cost support, high inventory, and weak real - estate data [8]. - Trading Strategy: Exit reverse arbitrage due to upstream production cuts [8]. - **PP** - Market Performance: The main contract continued to decline slightly, with stable basis and general market transactions [8]. - Fundamentals: New device production, increased supply, and weakening demand [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term weak oscillation, and in the long term, short at high prices or conduct month - spread reverse arbitrage [8]. - **MEG** - Market Performance: East China spot price and basis are provided [9]. - Fundamentals: High - level supply, inventory accumulation, and situations in related industries [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short at high prices for the 01 contract and take partial profit on short positions [9]. - **Benzene and Styrene** - Market Performance: The main contract fluctuated slightly, with a certain market trading atmosphere [9]. - Fundamentals: Inventory situations in pure benzene and styrene, and weak downstream demand [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillation, with limited upward space [9]. - **Soda Ash** - Market Performance: sa01 closed at 1190, up 1% [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand balance, high inventory, and downstream demand situations [9]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see due to supply - demand balance [9].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 27 日星期四 重要事项: 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 郑棉总成交 284007 手，持仓 954257 手。结算价 1 月 13635 元/吨，5 月 13595 元 /吨，9 月 13715 元/吨。 ICE12 月合约结算价 62.77 涨 34 点，3 月 64.57 涨 34 点，5 月 65.75 涨 32 点； | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 成交约 3.5 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、11 月 24 日北疆博州区域纺企采购 31 级双 29 含杂 2.8%以内机采新棉疆内库 2601 合约基差成交价 1000-1100 元/吨，提货价在 14600-14750 元/吨， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has support and pressure in the near term. There is continuous pressure from new cotton supply, but yarn mills are actively replenishing stocks. In the long - term, it depends on policies and weather. Strategies include selling high and buying back the spread between January and May contracts and going long on far - month contracts at low prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 26 was 13625, down 20 (-0.15%) from November 25; CF05 was 13585, up 5 (0.04%); CF01 - 05 was 40, down 25 [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on November 26, it was 14700, up 101 (0.69%); in Henan, 14896, up 48 (0.32%); in Shandong, 14951, up 41 (0.27%); Xinjiang - main contract basis was 1075, up 121 [3] Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures CY on November 26 was 20070, up 5 (0.02%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index was 20660, unchanged (0.00%) [3] US Cotton Spot - US cotton spot CT was 64 (USD/ pound), unchanged; the arrival price was 73.30, up 0.3 (0.41%); 1% quota delivery price was 12830, up 51 (0.40%); sliding - scale duty delivery price was 13868, up 31 (0.22%) [3] Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6445, up 25; yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 1038, down 20; the spot internal - external spread was 2121, down 10 [3][4]