| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13295 | 80 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19545 | 135 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -37086 | -4866 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -106 | -41 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 550497 | 15043 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 3221 | -687 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 3030 | -51 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 14739 | -20 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20530 | 0 | | | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | 13146 | 元/吨) -155 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32 | 21311 | -81 ...

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-09-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13350 | -55 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19495 | -115 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -20406 | 1066 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -167 | -47 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 530559 | -4260 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 5258 | -1382 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 3173 | -224 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 14953 | -48 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20580 | 0 | | | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | 13301 | 元/吨) 17 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数: ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton prices are fluctuating narrowly between 66 - 67 cents, lacking positive support. Attention should be paid to whether it can hold the support level of 66 cents/pound. The domestic cotton futures are falling. The expected high - yield and large - scale listing of new cotton, along with the weak purchasing enthusiasm of ginning mills, are pressuring the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. The uncertainty of new cotton cost is the main pressure. However, if the demand is stable and the spot maintains a high basis, the point - pricing demand is expected to support the Zhengzhou cotton futures 01 contract after the new cotton cost is determined. Before the National Day holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and after the holiday, the trend will still be dominated by the new cotton cost, with limited impact from the overseas market during the holiday [1][4][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data | Futures | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 66.35 | 67.02 | 66.03 | 66.33 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 91806 | - 9314 | 165485 | 9600 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 13740 | 13755 | 13390 | 13405 | - 315 | - 2.30 | 1198135 | 61293 | 534819 | 25570 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 19765 | 19905 | 19590 | 19610 | - 125 | - 0.63 | 57369 | - 1233 | 6640 | - 10804 | [4] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: It is fluctuating narrowly between 66 - 67 cents, affected by the trends of crude oil and other agricultural products. The fundamental news is weak, and the weekly export sales data of US cotton has deteriorated again [4]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending September 18, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 1.95 tons, a 54% week - on - week decrease and a 53% decrease compared to the four - week average. There was no new signing for 2026/27 US upland cotton. The weekly shipment of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 3.11 tons, a 14% week - on - week increase and a 6% increase compared to the four - week average. The total signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 94.65 tons, accounting for 36% of the annual forecasted total export volume; the cumulative export shipment volume was 21.98 tons, accounting for 23% of the annual total signing volume [5]. - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: The rupee has depreciated. The ex - factory price of S - 6 has dropped by 50 rupees/candy to 55,250 rupees/candy (about 79.5 cents/pound), and the quotation of J - 34 in Punjab has dropped by 200 rupees/maund to 5,465 rupees/maund (about 74.85 cents/pound) [6]. - **Brazil**: The subsequent shipment is expected to increase significantly. The estimated total output of 2024/25 cotton is 411 tons. The export shipment volume in the first two weeks of September was about 6.4 tons, and the progress was slower year - on - year, but it is expected to increase significantly later [7]. - **Australia**: There is expected to be more rainfall in Q4. The early planting scale in Queensland has expanded. The reservoir storage capacity in the Murray - Darling Basin has recovered to 70% of the total capacity [7]. - **Pakistan**: The demand for cotton imports is still average. The estimated total output of this year's cotton is 6 - 7 million bales. The domestic cotton supply is stable, and the spinning mills have little motivation to purchase from the international market [8]. - **Bangladesh**: The demand for cotton imports has slowed down. The import volume in August was 13.3 tons, slightly lower than that in July and a 12% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Textile Industry Startup Rates in Southeast Asia**: As of the week ending September 26, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 69.5%, 62.5%, and 65% respectively [9]. 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - **Spot and Pre - sale**: The spot trading of cotton is light, while the pre - sale of new cotton is relatively good. The spot price center has moved down, and the spot inventory has decreased. The pre - sale price of new cotton in 2025/26 is between 14700 - 15000 yuan/ton [10]. - **Seed Cotton Purchase**: The lower limit of the purchase price of seed cotton has been lowered. The purchase volume is small, and the listing progress is slower than expected. The purchase price for a certain volume is around 6.3 - 6.45 yuan/kg, and the theoretical cost is mainly between 14700 - 15000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 26, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 3397 lots, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 12 lots, totaling 3409 lots, equivalent to 143,178 tons [11]. - **Downstream Situation**: - **Cotton Yarn Market**: The trading is average, with seasonal demand as the main factor. The new orders are few. The price is stable with a slight decline. The cash flow of enterprises has improved. The startup rate is stable, and the inventory reduction has slowed down [12]. - **Cotton Grey Cloth Market**: The trading is stable, with a weakening trend in some areas. The price is weak. The orders are mainly small - scale, and the subsequent orders are insufficient. The inventory reduction has slowed down. The average startup level of weaving factories is 50% - 60%, and some factories are reducing production [12]. 3.3. Operation Suggestions - For ICE cotton futures, pay attention to whether it can hold the support level of 66 cents/pound. For domestic cotton futures, focus on the transaction price of new seed cotton. Before the National Day holiday, expect a weak and volatile trend, and after the holiday, the trend will be dominated by the new cotton cost, with limited impact from the overseas market during the holiday [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish strategy for cotton investment [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Zhengzhou cotton continued its weak performance this week. New cotton listing is delayed, and downstream demand shows signs of weakening. With new cotton about to enter the market, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Market - **Supply**: As of September 18, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.8%, up 0.3 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points from the four - year average. The national delivery rate was 15.8%, up 6 percentage points year - on - year and 7.1 percentage points from the four - year average [1] - **Import**: In August, China's cotton import volume was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons. The棉纱 import volume was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: In August, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 104.5 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 8.74% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. Textile and clothing export volume was $26.539 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [1] - **Inventory**: As of September 15, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 2.038 million tons, a decrease of 336,000 tons from the end of August. Commercial inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons, and industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons [1] International Market - **US Supply**: As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening rate was 60%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 12%, 1 percentage point behind year - on - year and the same as the five - year average. The overall good and excellent rate of cotton plants was 47%, a month - on - month decrease of 5 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 10 percentage points [1] - **US Demand**: From September 12 - 18, the net signing of US 25/26 - year - old upland cotton was 19,527 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 54% and a decrease of 54% compared with the four - week average. The shipment of upland cotton was 31,116 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14% and an increase of 6% compared with the four - week average. The net signing of Pima cotton was 1,928 tons, and the shipment was 1,179 tons. There were no new signings for 26/27 - year - old upland and Pima cotton this week [1] - **Southeast Asian Supply**: As of recently, India's cotton planting area was 10.964 million hectares, a 2.5% decrease from the same period last year. Some southern states had an increase in planting area, but due to rainfall, there are still differences in the market's prediction of India's new - year cotton output [1] - **Southeast Asian Demand**: In August, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was $3.86 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Bangladesh's clothing export volume was $3.17 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 20.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. In July, India's clothing export volume was $1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In August, Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was $1.524 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 9.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.34% [4] Market Outlook - New cotton in Xinjiang may be concentrated on the market during the National Day. Downstream yarn mills maintain stable load and replenish raw materials as needed, but the overall operating rate of fabric mills has slightly decreased, and the off - take speed of finished products has slowed down. Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase, but its market expansion faces challenges. Last week, the weekly export volume of US cotton decreased [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product daily report dated September 25, 2024, focusing on cotton and cotton yarn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,530 with a decrease of 25, trading volume of 246,394 hands (an increase of 67,330), and open interest of 525,141 (a decrease of 3,151) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,680 with a decrease of 30, trading volume of 656 hands (an increase of 229), and open interest of 771 (an increase of 305) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B price was 15,083 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; CY IndexC32S price was 20,615 yuan, unchanged [3] - Cot A price was 78.15 cents/pound, up 0.30 cents; FCY IndexC33S price was 21,464 yuan, up 22 yuan [3] Price Spreads - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was -5, down 20;棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was -85, down 19,795 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,150, down 5; 1% tariff内外棉价差 was 1,222, up 21 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market - In India, from September 18 - 24, 2025, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 41.8mm, 8.7mm higher than normal and 15.7mm higher than last year [6] - In the US, the average temperature in the main cotton - growing areas (92.9% output share) was 79.07°F, 2.99°F higher than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.48 inches, 0.37 inches lower than last year [6] - This year, Xinjiang cotton output is expected to increase more than expected, while ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm is average, and large - scale rush to buy is not expected. The expected acquisition price is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg [7] Trading Logic - As new cotton is gradually being acquired, the market focus is shifting to the new cotton opening price. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be some selling hedging pressure on the futures market [7] - In September, the market's peak season has arrived, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so this year's peak season is expected to be average, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly. It is recommended to trade opportunistically [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [10] Cotton Yarn Industry - Last night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated to 13,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35. Cotton yarn futures declined significantly. The pure cotton yarn market generally remained unchanged, and the peak - season trading was not as good as previous years [9] - The cotton - fabric market lacks stamina, with small orders maintained and large orders scarce. There is price competition, and the price difference between different weavers for regular varieties is about 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/meter [12] Group 4: Options Option Data - On September 25, 2025, for CF601C14000.CZC, the closing price was 111.00, a decrease of 27.0%, with an implied volatility of 11.7% [14] - For CF601P13600.CZC, the closing price was 297.00, an increase of 20.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.6% [14] Volatility and Strategy - Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.4409, with a slight decrease in volatility. The implied volatility of relevant options varied [14] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton showed that both call and put trading volumes increased today. The option strategy is to wait and see [15][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish approach for cotton prices [2] Core Viewpoints - The new cotton season shows a significant increase in production, with the expected total cotton output in 2025 reaching 721.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3% and an upward adjustment of 32.1 million tons from the previous period, hitting a new high since 2013. With only a small amount of new cotton on the market and the lack of a peak season in the downstream, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,530 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 19,780 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 23,381 lots, an increase of 1,105 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it is 87 lots, an increase of 134 lots. The main contract positions for cotton are 525,141 lots, down 3,151 lots; for cotton yarn, it is 9,561 lots, down 2,220 lots. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 3,583 sheets, down 133 sheets; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,083 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,336 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 14,181 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan. The China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,615 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,464 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; for imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn, it is 22,652 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 million tons, an increase of 54 million tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,532 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 87 million tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 7 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The daily import cotton profit is 881 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 148.17 million tons, down 70.81 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. The monthly cloth output is 2.701 billion meters, an increase of 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 202.79 million tons, an increase of 3.64 million tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,414,590.4 million US dollars, down 101,585.5 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,239,320.2 million US dollars, up 78,919.3 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.95%, down 1.49%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.95%, down 1.49%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.29%, up 0.26%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.17%, down 0.01% [2] Industry News - As of September 18, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises is 66.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15%, but the recovery of the operating rate has slowed down. Although it is the peak season, the downstream orders have limited growth. Most inland textile enterprises maintain a balance between procurement and sales, with an operating rate of 50% - 60% in inland areas and about 90% in Xinjiang. ICE cotton futures closed down on Wednesday, pressured by the strengthening US dollar [2] Viewpoint Summary - The 2025 national cotton is expected to have a total output of 721.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, hitting a new high since 2013. With a small amount of new cotton on the market and the lack of a peak season in the downstream, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards government bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and go long on glass at low prices [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Wait and see or go long on copper at low prices for short-term trading; wait for a pullback to go long on aluminum; wait and see or go short on nickel at high prices; conduct range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [1][20][22][24][28][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate within a range; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Go short on pigs and eggs at high prices; corn is expected to have wide-range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][40][41][43][45] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products across different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macroeconomic policies, and international events to assess the market trends of each product and offer corresponding trading suggestions. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high on Wednesday. Driven by multiple positive news in the chip industry, the technology growth sector rebounded strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the long term [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market continued its downward trend on Wednesday, with the focus of the decline shifting from active bonds to non-active bonds and credit bonds. It is advisable to maintain a wait-and-see attitude due to potential negative feedback from selling and redemptions [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices have risen across the board, and the sales of surrounding coal yards are active. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fluctuated on Wednesday. The static valuation has slightly increased, but the demand is still weak year-on-year. It is advisable to go long on dips, focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The spot prices of major glass manufacturers have increased, and the market sentiment has improved. The fundamentals are neither good nor bad, with weak support from demand in the peak season and potential positive factors from macro news and environmental policies. It is recommended to maintain a long position in the 01 contract [8] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper mine supply has been disrupted, and the consumption is expected to gradually recover during the pre-holiday stocking period. The copper price is expected to remain high before the holiday, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices for short-term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite has declined, while the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has increased. The demand has entered the peak season, but the inventory is still accumulating. It is recommended to go long at low prices and consider a long AD and short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore remains firm, while the refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. The price of nickel iron has slowed down, and the stainless steel price is weak. It is recommended to go short moderately at high prices [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. The tin price is expected to be supported, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 26.5 - 280,000 yuan/ton range for the Shanghai Tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and Gold**: The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the market expects further rate cuts. The prices of silver and gold are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 9800 - 10500 range for the Shanghai Silver 12 contract and the 820 - 855 range for the Shanghai Gold 12 contract [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic Soda**: The macro outlook is positive, but the weak reality is suppressing the market. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply are under pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, temporarily focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: The raw material price is firm, and the downstream demand is stable. However, the market is affected by pre-holiday risk aversion and potential reserve releases. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 15500 level as the support [26] - **Urea**: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [27] - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased, and the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry has increased. The inventory is high, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyethylene has increased, while the supply of polypropylene has decreased. The demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the low range, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is still weak, but the futures price has risen due to the increase in glass prices. It is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation has improved, but the new cotton production is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: The international oil price has risen, and the supply and demand are expected to decrease. It is expected to fluctuate within the 4550 - 4800 range [33][34] - **Apples**: The prices of early-maturing apples are firm, and the late Fuji apples are starting to be bagged. It is expected to maintain a strong trend [35] - **Jujubes**: The Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar-accumulating stage, and the consumption is weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The pig price is under pressure due to the increase in supply and the high weight. It is recommended to take profit on short positions in the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, go short on rebounds, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short-term pre-holiday demand is weakening, and the long-term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to go short at high prices or hold put options, and be cautious about shorting in the 12 and 01 contracts in the short term [39][40] - **Corn**: The new corn supply will ease the tight supply of the old corn. It is recommended to take a bearish view, wait for a rebound to go short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is under pressure in the short term due to the cancellation of Argentina's export tariffs, but the downside space is limited due to the low US soybean stock-to-use ratio and cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 2930 for the M2601 contract [43][44][45] - **Oils**: The market is expected to bottom out and rebound slightly after digesting the impact of Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, control positions, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities for rapeseed oil 11 - 1, 1 - 5, and the rapeseed - palm oil price spread [45][47][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish approach for cotton prices [2] 2. Core View of the Report - With a small amount of new cotton on the market, a significant increase in production in the new season, and the lack of a peak season in the downstream market, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened. Therefore, short - term operations are recommended to be bearish [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13,555, up 15; cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 24,486, down 5,549; main contract open interest for cotton (daily, lots): 528,292, down 4,509; cotton warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 3,716, down 199 - Cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19,860, up 200; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 47, up 121; main contract open interest for cotton yarn (daily, lots): 11,781, down 2,500; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,062, down 71; China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,336, up 69; China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale duty (daily, yuan/ton): 14,181, up 34 - China Yarn Price Index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 20,615, unchanged; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 21,442, up 10; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton combed yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 22,628, up 10 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 616, up 54 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,553, up 71; industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 87, up 1.3 - Cotton import quantity: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 7, up 2; cotton yarn import quantity: monthly value (monthly, tons): 130,000, up 20,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 986, down 86; commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 148.17, down 70.81 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days (monthly, days): 26.58, down 0.65; inventory days of grey cloth (monthly, days): 33.87, down 1.31 - Cloth production: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 27.01, up 0.01; yarn production: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 202.79, up 3.64 - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,414,590.4, down 101,585.5; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,239,320.2, up 78,919.3 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton (%): 10.44, down 1.04; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton (%): 10.44, down 1.03 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 9.03, up 0.09; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 7.18, up 0.17 [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing. As of September 19, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 1.1426 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1292 million tons (a decrease of 10.16%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 0.5646 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0852 million tons (a decrease of 13.11%); the commercial cotton in the inland area was 0.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0395 million tons (a decrease of 11.92%) - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures rose on Tuesday, ending a four - day losing streak, driven by strong demand. The ICE December cotton futures contract rose 0.42 cents, or 0.50%, to settle at 66.64 cents per pound [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - In August 2025, the China Cotton Association's cotton grower branch surveyed the cotton growth situation and the second - estimated output of 1,930 fixed - point farmers in 10 provincial - level regions and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The survey shows that the national estimated total cotton output in 2025 is 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, an upward adjustment of 0.321 million tons from the previous period, reaching a new high since 2013 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the support for cotton prices is weakening due to the small - scale listing of new cotton, significant production increase in the new season, and the lack of a peak season in the downstream market. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish stance [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 13,540 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 19,660 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 18,937 lots, up 1,458 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 168 lots, up 299 lots [2] - Cotton main contract open interest: 532,801 lots, up 10,524 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest: 14,281 lots, down 1,753 lots [2] - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 3,915 lots, down 181 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 0 lots, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,133 yuan/ton; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,615 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,267 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 14,147 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,432 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 22,618 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,482 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 870 thousand tons, up 13 thousand tons [2] - Cotton import volume: 70 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume: 130 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons [2] - Imported cotton profit: 1,072 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 14817 thousand tons, down 7081 thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.58 days, down 0.65 days;坯布 inventory days: 33.87 days, down 1.31 days [2] - Cloth production: 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; yarn production: 20279 thousand tons, up 364 thousand tons [2] - Monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 1414590.4 million US dollars, down 101585.5 million US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 1239320.2 million US dollars, up 78919.3 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton: 11.48%, down 0.35%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton: 11.47%, down 0.33% [2] - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.94%, down 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 7.02%, up 0.06% [2] Industry News - As of September 16, 2025, non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures were 70,118 lots, down 53 lots from the previous week; non - commercial short positions were 112,767 lots, down 8,738 lots; net short positions were 42,649 lots, down 8,685 lots [2] - In August 2025, the survey by the Cotton Growers Branch of the China Cotton Association showed that the national cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and the national cotton output was expected to be 7216 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, 321 thousand tons higher than the previous forecast, reaching a new high since 2013 [2] - ICE cotton futures were stable on Monday after hitting a more than two - week low. The December cotton futures contract fell 0.07 cents, or 0.09%, to settle at 66.22 cents per pound [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish approach for cotton investment [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - New cotton has started to be available in small quantities, with a significant increase in production in the new season. Given the lack of a peak season in the downstream market, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closed at 13,610 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closed at 19,675 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 20,395 lots, down 804 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it was - 467 lots, up 10 lots [2] - The position volume of the main cotton contract was 522,277 lots, up 13,028 lots; for cotton yarn, it was 16,034 lots, down 1,410 lots [2] - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 4,096, down 136; for cotton yarn, it was 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,224 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,705 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,284 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan; the FCIndexM with sliding - scale duty was 14,152 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2] - The arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,433 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; for pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn, it was 22,703 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,481 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 870 thousand tons, up 13 thousand tons [2] - The monthly import volume of cotton was 50 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; for cotton yarn, it was 110 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - The profit from importing cotton was 1,059 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 1481.7 thousand tons, down 708.1 thousand tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the坯布 inventory days were 33.87 days, down 1.31 days [2] - The monthly cloth output was 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2027.9 thousand tons, up 36.4 thousand tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1414.59 million US dollars, down 101.5855 million US dollars; for textile yarns, fabrics and products, it was 1239.32 million US dollars, up 78.9193 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 11.83%, up 0.37%; for at - the - money put options, it was 11.8%, up 0.35% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 9.14%, down 1.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.96%, down 0.25% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In August 2025, the China Cotton Association's cotton farmers' branch surveyed 1,930 fixed - point farmers in 10 provinces and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The national cotton sown area was 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [2] - As of the week ending September 16, about 41% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 32% the previous week [2] - From September 5 - 11, 2025, the net export signing volume of US 2025/26 upland cotton was 42.2 thousand tons, a 44% increase from the previous week and a 13% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. China signed to import 998 tons [2] - The shipment volume of US 2025/26 upland cotton was 27.3 thousand tons, an 8% decrease from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [2] - The survey showed that the national cotton output in 2025 was expected to be 7216 thousand tons, an 8.3% year - on - year increase, 321 thousand tons higher than the previous forecast, reaching a new high since 2013 [2]