二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 棉花：预计短期维持震荡走势 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 截至 11 月 21 日当周，ICE 棉花维持弱势，国际市场消息面依然清淡，美国农业部恢复公布周度出口 数据，但是由于数据并没有超预期的强劲且仍然滞后，所以对 ICE 棉花的提振也非常有限，反而整体金融 市场的风险偏好下降，继续对 ICE 棉花构成负面影响，令 ICE 棉花再创新低，市场还需要等待 ICE 棉花 期货从技术上去确定阶段性的底部支撑。 国内棉花期货窄幅波动，现阶段，由于新棉大量上市、一口价相对稳定，下游的原料采购仍然是随用 随买为主，棉花期、现货价格暂时没有新的上涨驱动；不过，高基差继续对郑棉期货构成支撑。所以，维 持郑棉期货区间震荡的判断，关注进入 12 月之后关于 01 合约的围绕交割逻辑进行的博弈。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 （正文） 1. 行情数据 | | | ICE 棉花继续弱势：ICE 棉花本周维持弱势，国际市场消息面依然清淡，美国农业部恢复公布周 ...

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-11-20 施压，但下方国内需求边际好转，盘面上，近期棉价存在止跌迹象，短期暂且观望。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13465 | -20 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19745 | -50 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -83369 | -3799 棉纱期货前20名净持 ...

但下方国内需求边际好转，预计维持震荡行情。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-11-18 四个月高点，到港量较多，出货受限。需求端，10月我国纺服出口呈现同环比双降趋势，服装出口降幅显 数据来源第三方(wind、同花顺、棉花信息网、棉花协会网)，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 著大于纺织品。但国内零售需求边际存在好转迹象，关注后期订单情况。总体上，上方供应端继续施压， 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-11-17 数据来源第三方(wind、同花顺、棉花信息网、棉花协会网)，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 续施压，但下方国内需求边际好转，预计维持震荡行情。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13445 | -5 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19740 | 45 | | | 棉花期货前2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to continue to decline to find support from commercial buyers due to sufficient global cotton supply and increased concerns about US cotton supply pressure after the USDA's upward adjustment of US cotton production and ending stocks estimates for the 2025/26 season [1][4][18] - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Although there is no new upward driver for cotton futures and spot prices at present, the high basis continues to support Zhengzhou cotton futures. Attention should be paid to the game around the delivery logic of the 01 contract after December [1][18] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 63.76 | 65.96 | 63.72 | 64.14 | 0.59 | 0.93 | 214712 | 43347 | 155968 | 25922 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 13570 | 13620 | 13435 | 13450 | - 130 | - 0.96 | 897294 | - 69357 | 556440 | - 19839 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 19850 | 19930 | 19685 | 19695 | - 155 | - 0.78 | 66005 | 8241 | 23504 | - 1538 | [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton hit a six - month low this week. The global cotton supply is sufficient, and the import demand of major textile countries remains weak. After the USDA released a new monthly supply - demand report, ICE cotton fell below the October low due to the upward adjustment of US cotton production and ending stocks estimates for the 2025/26 season [4] - In the USDA's monthly supply - demand report, the US cotton production was increased by 900,000 bales to 14.12 million bales, exports were increased by 200,000 bales, and ending stocks were increased by 700,000 bales to 4.3 million bales, with the stock - to - use ratio rising to 30.9%. Globally, the 2025/26 cotton production was increased by 2.4 million bales to 120.08 million bales, mainly in China, the US, and Brazil. Global cotton consumption was basically unchanged, and ending stocks were increased by 2.79 million bales to 75.93 million bales [5] - As of the week ending September 25, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 35,200 tons, a 81% week - on - week increase and a 4% decrease from the four - week average. 2026/27 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 10,000 tons, all from China. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 982,000 tons, accounting for 37% of the annual forecasted total exports, and the cumulative export shipments were 247,900 tons, accounting for 25% of the annual total contracts [6] - In India, the 2025/26 cotton production is expected to decline year - on - year, and it may become a net importer. Production is forecast at 30.5 million bales, consumption at 30 million bales, exports at 1.7 million bales, and imports at 4.5 million bales [6] - In Brazil, the 2025/26 cotton production estimate was slightly lowered due to a slight reduction in the planted area estimate. In October, raw cotton exports reached 294,000 tons, a 64% increase from September and a slight increase from the same period in 2024. China and India were the main buyers [7] - In Pakistan, cotton import demand is very limited. Local observers predict cotton production of about 6.5 - 7 million bales. Import demand is mild, and the market activity has not recovered due to sufficient local cotton supply and weak downstream demand [8] - In Bangladesh, cotton import demand is restricted by difficulties in opening letters of credit, limited financing channels, competition from low - priced imported yarn from India, and poor yarn sales profitability [8] - In Australia, cotton sowing has ended, and the crop is growing well. As of November 12, the water storage in the Murray - Darling Basin was 66% of the total capacity. In September, raw cotton exports were 175,000 tons, a 4% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year decrease. China was the main destination [9] - As of the week ending November 14, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67%, 61%, and 65% respectively [9] 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Domestic cotton spot prices have slightly declined, and trading is not very active. Spinning mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The mainstream basis of cotton spot has remained stable, and the number of low - basis spot has decreased with transactions [10] - As of November 14, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 4401 lots, and the reported warehouse receipts were 643 lots, totaling 5044 lots, equivalent to 211,848 tons [11] - The downstream situation is stable but not improving further. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is dull, new orders are weakening, and spinning mills are digesting previous orders. The prices of pure - cotton yarn are mixed, and the spinning mill operating rate has slightly decreased while inventory has slightly increased. The trading in the cotton fabric market is divided, with limited new orders and weakening sales [12][13] 3.3 Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, etc., to help analyze the cotton market [15][16][17] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to continue to decline to find support. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, and attention should be paid to the game around the delivery logic of the 01 contract after December [18]

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-11-13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13490 | -25 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19790 | 0 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -96988 | 4277 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | 20 | 203 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 562897 | -1984 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 24597 | 205 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 4180 | 296 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 30 | -1 | | 现货市场 | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | 14819 | -32 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20490 | 0 | | | | | 元/吨) | | | | | | 13023 | -69 到港价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The pressure of new cotton listing is increasing, but the yield per unit of Xinjiang cotton is lower than expected, which supports the cotton market. The downstream demand is weak, but the tariff reduction is beneficial to cotton - textile exports, also providing certain support. Currently, with long and short factors intertwined, the market will fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 13,515 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 19,790 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 101,265 lots, an increase of 15,021 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it is - 183 lots, a decrease of 166 lots. The main - contract positions of cotton are 564,881 lots, down 9,024 lots; for cotton yarn, they are 24,392 lots, down 234 lots. The cotton warehouse - receipt quantity is 3,884 lots, an increase of 265 lots; for cotton yarn, it is 31 lots, an increase of 12 lots. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,851 yuan/ton, and the China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,490 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,092 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,203 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] Spot Market - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff) is 14,037 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,636 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, and the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,639 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan. The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import quantity of cotton is 100,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons; for cotton yarn, it is 130,000 tons, unchanged. The profit of imported cotton is 805 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan. The commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 24.85 days, down 1.73 days; for grey cloth, they are 31.12 days, down 2.75 days. The monthly output of cloth is 2.8 billion meters, an increase of 100 million meters; for yarn, it is 2.074 million tons, an increase of 46,000 tons. The monthly export amount of clothing and clothing accessories is 12,453,247 million US dollars, a decrease of 1,692,656.63 million US dollars; for textile yarns, fabrics and products, it is 11,966,516 million US dollars, a decrease of 426,685.77 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 3.89%, down 2.91%; for at - the - money put options, it is also 3.89%, down 2.91%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.38%, down 0.09%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.75%, down 0.1% [2] Industry News - As of 24:00 on November 10, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in the 2025/26 season is 11,285,194 bales, totaling 2.548547 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.57%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton is 2.5062 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.02%. The ICE cotton futures fell on Tuesday, and investors are waiting for the supply - demand report from the US Department of Agriculture later this week. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.39 cents, or 0.59%, at 65.38 cents per pound [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang is about 96.1%, 2.1 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The picking and purchasing progress of Xinjiang cotton has accelerated, and the purchasing price has slightly decreased. The current commercial inventory is gradually rising, and the inventory of imported cotton has increased significantly, reaching a 3.5 - month high. Due to less outbound of imported cotton, the market trading volume is limited, and the arrival volume is stable. On the demand side, the spinning processing profit has slightly improved, and enterprises' confidence in future demand shows signs of turning, but the increase in new orders is still limited. Attention should be paid to the export situation [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The new cotton listing pressure is increasing, but the lower - than - expected yield per unit of Xinjiang cotton supports the cotton market. The downstream demand is weak, but the tariff reduction is beneficial for cotton textile exports, also providing some support. With the current situation of long - short factors intertwined, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 116,286 lots, down 1,085 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 17 lots, up 3 lots [2] - Cotton main contract open interest is 573,905 lots, up 3,733 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 24,626 lots, down 341 lots [2] - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 3,619 pieces, up 325 pieces; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 19 pieces, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,842 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; China Yarn Price Index for pure cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,972 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure cotton carded yarn 32s is 21,210 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 13,958 yuan/ton; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure cotton combed yarn 32s is 22,644 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 tons, up 54 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,678 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 86.1 tons, down 0.9 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of cotton is 10 tons, up 3 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, unchanged [2] - The daily profit of imported cotton is 886 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 102.17 tons, down 46 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 24.85 days, down 1.73 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 31.12 days, down 2.75 days [2] - The monthly output of cloth is 2.8 billion meters, up 0.1 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 207.4 tons, up 4.6 tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 12,453,247 million US dollars, down 1,692,656.63 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 11,966,516 million US dollars, down 426,685.77 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 6.8%, down 5.43%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 6.8%, down 5.43% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.46%, down 0.09%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.85%, down 0.01% [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton has increased significantly with the concentrated listing of new cotton. As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 2.8478 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5217 million tons (a 22.43% increase). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 2.3115 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4725 million tons (a 25.69% increase), and the commercial cotton in the inland area is 0.01883 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00231 million tons (a 13.98% increase) [2] - ICE cotton futures rose on Monday. The sign of the end of the US government shutdown boosted the market sentiment. The December ICE cotton futures contract closed up 0.69 cents, or 1.08%, at 64.31 cents per pound [2] Supply - demand Analysis - Supply side: As of November 3, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang is about 96.1%, 2.1 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The picking and purchasing progress of Xinjiang cotton has accelerated, and the purchasing price has slightly decreased. The current commercial inventory is gradually recovering, and the inventory of imported cotton has increased significantly, reaching a new high in 3.5 months. Due to less outbound of imported cotton, the market trading volume is limited, and the arrival volume is stable [2] - Demand side: The spinning processing profit has slightly improved, and enterprises' confidence in future demand shows signs of improvement, but the increase in new orders is still limited. Attention should be paid to the export situation [2]

支撑。当前多空交织，短期暂且观望。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13580 | 0 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19865 | 15 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -115201 | -1940 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -20 | 71 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 570172 | -6107 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 24967 | -75 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 3294 | 281 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 19 | 13 | | 现货市场 | | 14844 | -15 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20520 | 0 | | | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | | 元/吨) -109 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数:纯棉普梳纱3 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market currently has both support and pressure. There is a continuous supply of new cotton, but yarn mills are actively restocking. In the long - term, policies and weather will be the key factors. The recommended strategies are to conduct reverse arbitrage on the January - May spread when prices are high and to lay out long positions for distant contracts when prices are low [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - On November 6, CF01 was 13605, down 10 (-0.07%) from November 5; CF05 was 13615, down 5 (-0.04%); CF01 - 05 was -10, down 5 from the previous day [3]. Domestic Cotton Spot - On November 6, the prices in Xinjiang, Henan, and Shandong were 14618, 14852, and 14869 respectively, with decreases of -9 (-0.06%), -4 (-0.03%), and -4 (-0.03%) compared to November 5. The Xinjiang - main contract basis was 1013, up 1 [3]. Domestic Yarn Futures - On November 6, CY was 19870, up 50 (0.25%) from November 5 [3]. Domestic Yarn Spot - On November 6, the C32S price index was 20520, unchanged from November 5 [3]. US Cotton Spot - On November 6, CT (USD/磅) was unchanged at 65.07, the arrival price was 75.20, the 1% quota delivery price was 13158, and the sliding - duty delivery price was 14069, all unchanged from November 5 [3]. Spread Data - On November 6, the yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6265, up 60 from November 5; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 911, unchanged [3]. Other Data - The domestic - foreign spot spread was 1711 on November 6, down 4 from November 5 [4].