【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员：黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 长江期货棉纺产业周报 2025-8-25 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 震荡偏强 01 周度观点——棉花 Ø 短期展望：因为美联储降息预期升温和 USDA 报告利多，期货盘子震荡反弹。下周主要是震荡反弹的行情。下周 CF2601关注【14100-14500】区间。 Ø 中期展望：期货 09 合约多空平仓较迅速，基本快平稳落地，9 月美国降息概率大幅度上升为90%以上，目前面临马上 新棉上市，机采棉轧花厂收购心里预期在 6-6.3 元/吨，新棉预售量同比去年增加了很多，大约有 150 万吨左右，保 交售，对刚上市籽棉价格形成支撑，刚开始价格略高。另外金九银十降临近，期货价格有支撑或反弹可能性。 Ø 长期展望：目前喀什新棉手摘棉收购价格 7-7.3 元/吨，棉籽价格 2.26-2.4 元/公斤预售，机采棉轧花厂收购心里预期 在 6-6.3 元/吨，高于此价格趋于谨慎，对标目前 2601 合约 14100-14200 元/吨价格不赔钱，对于农户来说，今年单 产提高，包地的卖到6. ...

期货市场交易指引 南华商品指数 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 ◆铝： | | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： ...

南华期货棉花棉纱周报 需求：7月国内纺服零售额961亿元，环比减少24.63%，同比增加1.80%；7月纺织品服装出口额267.66亿美 元，环比减少2.01%，同比减少0.06%（中性） 库存：据中国棉花信息网，截至8月15日，全国棉花工商业库存共274.44万吨，较七月底减少34.38万吨，其 中商业库存为182.02万吨，较七月底减少36.96万吨，工业库存为92.42万吨，较七月底增加2.58万吨（偏 多） 【国际市场】 美国供应：据美国农业部统计，至8月17日全美棉花现蕾率97%，同比落后1%，较近五年均值落后1%，全美 结铃率73%，同比落后10%，较近五年均值落后7%，全美吐絮率13%，同比落后5%，较近五年均值落后 3%，全美棉株整体优良率55%，环比提高2个百分点，同比提高13个百分点（中性） 美国需求：据USDA，8.8-8.14一周美国25/26年度陆地棉净签约23904吨，环比大幅减少56%，装运陆地棉 27964吨，环比减少32%，净签约皮马棉227吨，装运皮马棉1043吨，本周未签约26/27年度陆地棉及皮马棉 （偏空） ——市场情绪反复，棉价仍存支撑 2025/08/22 陈嘉宁 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 |TG国贸期货 馆 胶 EU FE FET 当以知识 FIXA FI 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 官 方 网 站 服 热线 客 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 入 期 市 市 宽 有 理 风 棉系数据日报 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号投资咨询证号 | | 2025/8/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | Z0019508 | | | 指标 | | 8月21日 | 8月20日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 国内棉花期货 | CF01 | 14030 | 14055 | -25 | -0. 18% | | | CF09 | 13770 | 13800 | -30 | -0. 22% | | | CF09-01 | -260 | -255 | -5 | - | | 国内棉花现货 | 新疆 | 15038 | 15080 | -42 | -0. 28% | | | 河南 | 15274 | 15304 | -30 | -0. 20% | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 08 月 21 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 14030 | -25 | 145,497 | -137731 | 481,950 | 3484 | | CF05合约 | 14005 | -35 | 5,618 | -11691 | 54,311 | 863 | | CF09合约 | 13770 | -30 | 23,693 | -21059 | 96,107 | -9010 | | CY01合约 | 20055 | -30 | 54 | -86 | 373 | -23 | | CY05合约 | 20290 | 20290 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | | CY09合约 | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ICE cotton futures price will fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the USDA weekly export sales report [2] - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market, and the spot price and basis are firm [2] - The textile industry is in the off - season of consumption, mainland spinning mills have no profit, the overall operating rate continues to decline, and enterprises mainly purchase raw materials as needed, hoping that the "Golden September and Silver October" will bring an opportunity for demand improvement [2] - In 2025, the overall cotton planting area in China has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops [2] - Currently, the domestic old - crop supply is tight, which supports the cotton price fluctuations, but the weak downstream demand limits the upside space. The price will maintain a high - level shock in the short - term. If the future demand improves marginally, the price center may move up slightly. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,030 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net position: - 48,506 lots, down 639 lots; main contract holding volume of cotton: 481,950 lots, up 3,484 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 7,335 lots, down 120 lots; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,060 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net position: - 363 lots, down 97 lots; main contract holding volume of cotton yarn: 22,074 lots, down 75 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 69 lots, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,541 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tax): 14,320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 22,035 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 23,912 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton nationwide: 857,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons; monthly import volume of cotton: 50,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; monthly import volume of cotton yarn: 110,000 tons, unchanged [2] - Imported cotton profit: 894 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton nationwide: 2.1898 million tons, down 0.64 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; inventory days of grey cloth: 36.14 days, down 1.1 days; monthly cloth output: 2.7 billion meters, down 0.079 billion meters; monthly yarn output: 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons [2] - Monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 151,617.59 million US dollars, down 10,495.5 thousand US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 116,040.09 million US dollars, down 44,419.8 thousand US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton: 10.53%, an increase of 0.09%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton: 10.53%, an increase of 0.07%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 7.78%, an increase of 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.65%, a decrease of 0.04% [2] 3.7 Industry News - On August 21, the spinning profit was - 1,354.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The raw material cotton price decreased, and the spinning mills' spot - on - hand profit increased slightly [2] - On Wednesday, the ICE cotton December contract closed flat. On Thursday, the cotton 2601 contract rose 0.11%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract rose 0.05% [2]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 08 月 21 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Internationally, ICE cotton futures prices are rising with short - term volatility. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market, and spot prices and basis are firm. On the demand side, it's the off - season for textile consumption, spinning mills have no profit, the overall operating rate is declining, and raw material purchases are mainly for rigid demand, hoping for demand improvement in the "Golden September and Silver October". In 2025, China's cotton planting area has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crops. Overall, tight supply of old crops supports price fluctuations, but expected increase in new crop output and weak downstream demand limit the upside. The market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,055 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,065 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 47,867 lots, an increase of 11,592 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 266 lots, an increase of 194 lots. - Cotton main contract open interest is 478,466 lots, down 10,082 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 22,149 lots, an increase of 235 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 7,455 lots, down 141 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 69 lots, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,240 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,593 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 14,349 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan. - Arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 22,045 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan; for pure - cotton combed yarn 32s is 23,923 yuan/ton, down 89 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,460 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton is 857,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons. - Monthly import volume of cotton is 50,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, unchanged. - Imported cotton profit is 894 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton is 2.1898 million tons, down 640,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days;坯布 inventory days are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.7 billion meters, down 79 million meters; monthly yarn output is 2.065 million tons, an increase of 114,000 tons. - Monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 10.4955 million US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 44.4198 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton call options is 10.44%, down 0.4%; implied volatility of at - the - money cotton put options is 10.46%, down 0.36%. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.57%, up 0.17%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.68%, up 0.02% [2] Industry News - India has suspended the 11% import tariff on cotton until September 30. On Tuesday, the ICE December cotton contract closed down 0.46%. On Wednesday, the cotton 2601 contract closed down 0.5%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract closed down 0.45% [2]

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - bullish on dips; Treasury bonds - hold off [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - range trading; Glass - weakening in a range; Coking coal and coke - range - bound [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or hold off; Aluminum - buy on dips after pullbacks; Nickel - hold off or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - weakening in a range; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - range - bound; Styrene - range - bound; Rubber - strengthening in a range; Urea - range - bound; Methanol - range - bound; Polyolefins - wide - range weakening [1][19][20] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - strengthening in a range; Apples - strengthening in a range; Red dates - strengthening in a range [1][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - range - bound; Soybean meal - range - bound; Oils - strengthening in a range [1][37][38] Core Views - Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international events. Different futures varieties present different trends and investment opportunities due to their own characteristics and external impacts [6][9][12] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: With the T + 0 function, maintain positions, lock in positions when there is a downward trend, and earn profits during the heat - up period. Consider the impacts of international events like China - India and US - Russia - Ukraine meetings [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond allocation value is emerging and market sentiment is recovering, it is not recommended to enter the market aggressively due to potential disturbances from the equity market and possible chain - reactions from yield adjustments [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Futures prices continue to decline. Considering factors like external trade policies, production, and inventory, it is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Focus on the [3100 - 3300] range for RB2510 [9] - **Glass**: Futures are in a weakening trend. With inventory pressure and potential policy impacts, the 09 contract is considered weak, and attention should be paid to the 930 - 950 support level [8][9][10] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is in a game between tight supply and weakening demand, and is expected to be range - bound. Coke is supported by low inventory, high demand, and supply disturbances, and is also expected to be range - bound [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by macro - data and supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to be range - bound with a slightly upward trend. The short - term operating range for Shanghai copper is 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [12][13] - **Aluminum**: Despite short - term negative events, considering the transition from the off - season to the peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [13][14] - **Nickel**: In the medium - to long - term, the supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16] - **Tin**: With improving supply and weakening demand in the off - season, it is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range for the SH09 contract being 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US economic data and geopolitical events, they are expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to buy on dips [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, uncertain export sustainability, and weak demand, it is expected to be in a weakening range. The 01 contract is temporarily focused on the 4900 - 5000 range [19][20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: With sufficient supply and rigid demand with a slow - down in growth, the 01 contract is expected to be range - bound in the 2550 - 2650 range [21][22] - **Styrene**: With limited fundamental positives and a warm macro - environment, the price is expected to be range - bound in the 7100 - 7400 range [23][24] - **Rubber**: With cost support and inventory reduction, it is expected to be in a strengthening range within the 15200 - 15600 range [25][27] - **Urea**: Affected by supply, demand, and export factors, the 01 contract is under pressure at 1820 - 1850 [28] - **Methanol**: With a slight decline in supply, stable demand from methanol - to - olefins, and weak traditional demand, the price is expected to be in a weakening range [30] - **Polyolefins**: With cost uncertainties and a slow recovery in downstream demand, the L2509 contract is focused on the 7200 - 7500 range, and the PP2509 contract is focused on the 6900 - 7200 range [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: Due to supply increases and potential inventory accumulation, it is recommended to hold short positions on the 09 contract [33] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: With improved global supply - demand, a better macro - environment, and expectations of the peak season, the price is expected to strengthen in a range [35] - **Apples**: Based on low inventory and growth impacts, the price is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound pattern [36] - **Red Dates**: With the current growth situation and market conditions, the price is expected to strengthen in a range [36] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: With supply pressure and different expectations for different contracts, it is recommended to lock in profits on short positions at low levels, add short positions at pressure levels, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: With sufficient short - term supply and uncertain long - term supply, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 10 contract and consider long positions on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts if the elimination process accelerates [38][39][40] - **Corn**: With sufficient supply and suitable growing conditions, the 11 contract is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to short on rallies or hold the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [40] - **Soybean Meal**: With a tightening supply - demand situation for US soybeans and different supply - demand patterns in different periods in China, it is recommended to hold long positions on a rolling basis and reduce positions on rallies [42] - **Oils**: With short - term high - level callback risks and long - term positive factors, it is recommended to buy on dips, take profits on existing long positions, and pay attention to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage [43][44][50]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - Bullish on dips; Treasury bonds - Neutral [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - Neutral; Iron ore - Bullish with a bias; Coking coal and coke - Neutral [1][6][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - Neutral; Aluminum - Bullish on dips; Nickel - Bearish on rallies; Tin - Neutral; Gold - Bullish on dips; Silver - Bullish on dips [1][11][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - Bearish; Soda ash - Short 09, long 05; Caustic soda - Bullish with a bias; Styrene - Neutral; Rubber - Bullish with a bias; Urea - Neutral; Methanol - Neutral; Polyolefins - Bearish [1][19][21] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - Bullish with a bias; Apples - Bullish with a bias; Jujubes - Bullish with a bias [1][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs - Bearish on rallies; Eggs - Bearish on rallies; Corn - Neutral; Soybean meal - Bullish with limited upside; Oils and fats - Bullish with limited downside [1][37][39] Core Views - The global economic and political situation, including geopolitical events and policy announcements, significantly impacts the futures market. For example, geopolitical talks and central bank policies affect market sentiment and asset prices [6]. - Supply - demand fundamentals play a crucial role in determining the price trends of various commodities. Factors such as production capacity, inventory levels, and consumption demand vary across different industries and influence price movements [20][28]. - Seasonal factors and market expectations, like the "Golden September and Silver October" season in the cotton market and the peak - off - peak seasons in the energy and chemical industries, also affect commodity prices [35]. Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Trump's diplomatic activities and Chinese government's economic policies boost market sentiment. It is recommended to use the T + 0 feature of index futures, hold positions, and lock in profits during downward trends [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: High - yield bonds may attract insurance funds. The bond market may recover slightly due to potential "looser" liquidity and a slight decline in equity market sentiment [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: After a sharp decline on Monday, prices are affected by external trade policies and internal supply - demand. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with the RB2510 contract in the range of 3100 - 3300 [8]. - **Iron Ore**: With stable supply and strong demand, especially considering the National Day parade expectations, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias, and the 01 contract may face resistance at 840 - 850 [8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal supply is tight but demand is weakening marginally. Coke supply may be affected by environmental policies, and demand remains strong. Both are expected to be volatile in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by macroeconomic data and supply - demand fundamentals, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias, and the short - term operating range of Shanghai copper is 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: Due to factors such as bauxite supply and production capacity changes, and considering the potential impact of trade policies, it is recommended to take long positions on dips [12]. - **Nickel**: With an overall oversupply in the medium and long term, it is recommended to take short positions on rallies [16]. - **Tin**: Supply is gradually improving, but demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to trade within a range, with the SHFE tin 09 contract in the range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US economic data and geopolitical events, prices are expected to have support at lower levels. It is recommended to take long positions on dips [17][18]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, uncertain export sustainability, and weak fundamentals suggest a short - term bearish trend, with the 01 contract in the range of 5000 - 5200 [20][21]. - **Soda Ash**: Due to supply - side concerns and inventory trends, it is recommended to short the 09 contract [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: With high supply and stable demand, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias, and the 09 contract may find support at 2500 [22]. - **Styrene**: Affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, prices are expected to be volatile, with the reference range of 7100 - 7400 [24]. - **Rubber**: After a price adjustment, with inventory changes and mixed market signals, it is expected to be bullish with a bias, in the range of 15200 - 15600 [27]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, demand is mixed, and inventory is rising. Prices are expected to be neutral, with support at 1700 - 1720 and resistance at 1820 - 1850 [28][29]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased slightly, demand is mixed, and port inventory is rising. Prices are expected to be neutral and may be slightly bearish [30]. - **Polyolefins**: Affected by cost and demand factors, prices are expected to be bearish, with the L2509 contract in the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract in the range of 6900 - 7200 [31]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - demand conditions have improved, and with the arrival of the peak season, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias [35]. - **Apples**: With low inventory and growth - related impacts, prices are expected to remain high and volatile [36]. - **Jujubes**: Based on the growth situation and market supply, prices are expected to rise with a bias [36]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Supply pressure remains, but there may be short - term rebounds. It is recommended to take short positions on rallies and consider the long 05, short 03 arbitrage [39]. - **Eggs**: Supply is sufficient in the short term, and it is recommended to take short positions on rallies. If the culling process accelerates, there may be long - entry opportunities for the 12 and 01 contracts [40][41]. - **Corn**: With sufficient supply and expected cost reduction, prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to short on rebounds or hold the 11 - 1 reverse spread [42]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean supply - demand is tightening, but domestic supply is abundant in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions in a rolling manner and reduce positions on rallies [44]. - **Oils and Fats**: Although there are short - term correction risks, the long - term trend is bullish. It is recommended to take long positions on dips and pay attention to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse spread [50][51].