郑棉增仓上涨， 提前博弈旺季 棉花周报 2026/02/28 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：（1）据USDA数据显示，2月12日至2月19日当周，美国当前年度棉花出口销售6.09万吨，累计出口销售205.07万吨，同比减少 15.69万吨；其中当周对中国出口0.06万吨，累计出口9.85万吨，同比减少8.38万吨。（2）据Mysteel数据显示，截至2月27日当周，纺纱厂 开机率为64.6%，环比前一周上调24.1个百分点；全国棉花商业库存536万吨，环比前一周减少5万吨。（3）据USDA数据显示，1月预测 2025/26年度全球产量为2600万吨，环比12月预测下调8万吨，较上年度增加20万吨；库存消费比62.63%，环比12月预测减少1.42个百分点， 较上年度增加0.62个百分点。其中1月预测美国产量303万吨，环比12月预 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 巴西对外贸易秘书处(Secex)最新数据显示，巴西2月前三周累计装出未加工的棉花21.87万吨，去年2月 全月出口量为27.46万吨；日均装运量为1.68万吨，较去年2月的1.37万吨增加22.51%。 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current market sentiment is optimistic, but the post - Spring Festival downstream operating rate is unknown. Therefore, the pre - holiday Zhengzhou cotton futures price is oscillating strongly at a high level. After the festival, focus on the downstream operating rate and the new cotton target price policy that may be announced in March or April. The strategy is to try going long at the lower edge of the oscillation range [3][20]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Downstream Consumption and Price Movement - In December last year, due to the significantly higher operating rate of the downstream industry chain in the off - season compared to the same period of the previous year and the expectation of a reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the next year, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price increased by 6.58%. From January to mid - February this year, the price continued to move sideways at a high level, and there may still be an upward trend in the future from a technical chart perspective [5]. - In the peak seasons of September and October last year, the operating rate of the downstream industry chain did not increase month - on - month, and the cotton price declined due to the expectation of increased production. However, in the off - seasons of November and December, the operating rate did not show a seasonal decline and remained at a relatively high level. As of the week of February 6, the spinning mill operating rate was 60.5%, 10 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 19.4%, 7.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [5]. Inventory and Procurement - As of the end of January, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.79 million tons, 40,000 tons more than the same period last year; the industrial inventory was 1 million tons, 20,000 tons more than the same period last year. Since October 2025, the industrial inventory has continued to increase from 890,000 tons to the current 1 million tons, indicating high procurement enthusiasm of downstream spinning mills [5]. Import Situation - Currently, the domestic - foreign price difference has reached the highest level since 2014, with a very high import profit. The import profit with a 1% tariff exceeds 3,500 yuan/ton, and the import profit with a sliding - scale tariff is close to 2,500 yuan/ton. However, the increase in actual import volume is not large. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year; in 2025, the cumulative import of cotton was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year; from August 2025 to July 2026, the cumulative import of cotton was 560,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons year - on - year [6]. - In December 2025, China imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 20,000 tons year - on - year; in 2025, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year; from August 2025 to July 2026, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 720,000 tons, an increase of 110,000 tons year - on - year. Brazil exported 115,000 tons of cotton to China in January, an increase of 46,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 31,000 tons month - on - month; from August 2025 to July 2026, Brazil's cumulative export of cotton to China was 478,000 tons, an increase of 96,000 tons year - on - year. As of January 22, 2025/26, the United States' cumulative export of cotton to China was 97,400 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year [6]. USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report - The February USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. The estimated global output for the 2025/26 season is 26.1 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the January estimate and 300,000 tons more than the previous season. The increase in output is from China, with an estimated output of 7.62 million tons in February, an increase of 100,000 tons from the January estimate. The estimated global consumption is 25.85 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the January estimate and 50,000 tons less than the previous season. The estimated global ending inventory is 16.35 million tons, an increase of 130,000 tons from the January estimate and 290,000 tons more than the previous season. The estimated global inventory - to - consumption ratio is 62.27%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points from the January estimate and 1.25 percentage points more than the previous season. The estimated export volume of the United States is adjusted down by 40,000 tons to 2.61 million tons compared to January, while the estimates of China, Brazil, and India change little [19].

"除了历年来的中央一号文件十分给力外，新疆棉花产业的发展还离不开金融'活水'的辛勤浇灌。"孙涛 告诉记者，在当前我国特色优势农业高质量发展与乡村全面振兴的时代浪潮中，农产品期货正在悄然重 塑我国农业发展格局。 "目标价格政策确定延续，给棉农、加工企业及产业链上下游主体吃下了一颗'定心丸'，这将有效激发 棉农的种植热情。"闫奎说。 值得注意的是，今年的中央一号文件将"提升农业综合生产能力和质量效益"摆在首要位置，强调"大力 发展科技农业，因地制宜发展农业新质生产力，推动科技创新与产业创新深度融合"。这与新疆棉花产 业从"规模扩张"向"质量提升、绿色转型、产业链延伸"的发展高度契合。 与此同时，在科技赋能方面，今年的中央一号文件提出"加快选育和推广突破性品种，推进生物育种产 业化"。对此，市场人士表示，新疆地域辽阔，机械化、智能化水平提升空间巨大，这些政策举措有望 推动新疆棉花在品种改良、精准水肥管理、机械化采收等领域的技术突破，助力解决长期以来部分区域 品种混杂、品质参差不齐等问题，推动棉花种植向标准化、精细化转型。 "今年的中央一号文件对各类特色农产品产业发展作出了系统性部署，其中提出推动棉花、糖料、天然 橡 ...

（张笑金，从业资格号：F0306200；交易咨询资格号：Z0000082） 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： 消息方面，截至1月31日，2025/26年榨季广西累计入榨甘蔗3343.06万吨，同比减少309.71万吨；产混合 糖402.90万吨，同比减少78.80万吨；混合产糖率12.05%，同比下降1.14个百分点；累计销糖155.06万 吨，同比减少83.03万吨；产销率38.49%，同比下降10.94个百分点。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团报价 区间为5260~5340元/吨，报价持平；云南制糖集团报价5110~ 5180元/吨，下调10元/吨。原糖方面，周 边市场波动剧烈，基本面方面影响弱化。国内方面，假期临近，现货成交一般，昨日广西云南等产销数 据公布，基本符合预期。销售进度确实较慢，预计节后仍将成为制约反弹的重要因素，当前市场以窄幅 震荡对待。 棉花： 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： （孙成震，从业资格号：F03099994；交易咨询资格号：Z0021057） 周三，ICE美棉下跌0.14%，报收62.22美分/磅，郑棉 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2605合约价格微跌，周度跌幅约0.17%。 行情展望：据ABARES的预测，2025/26年度澳大利亚棉花产量为94.3万吨，同比减 少23%，种植面积为40.6万公顷，同比减少22%，灌溉田面积减少主要是灌溉水不 足，早地田面积减少的原因是土壤水分偏低且其他作物收益好。不过其他地区的单 产偏高弥补了产量损失，整体产量仍比近十年平均值偏高9%。国内市场：当前公检 棉数量已超720万吨，供应压力逐渐增加。进口棉仍以巴西棉为主，交易量有所放缓， 主要由于春节临近，部分纺企进入放假模式。据Mysteel调研显示，截止至1月29日， 进口棉主要港口库存周环比增加4.25%，总库存49.54万吨，其中，山东地区青岛、 济南港口及周边仓41.3万吨，同比减少2.93%，江苏地区张家港港口及周边仓库进口 棉库存约3. ...

新疆是农业大区，具有发展现代农业得天独厚的资源气候条件。近年来，新疆牢牢把握打造全国优质农 牧产品重要供给基地的战略定位，推动乡村全面振兴、农业强区建设取得积极成效，"三农"进入了发展 最快、成效最好、群众得实惠最多的时期。 ●兵团日报全媒体记者 王素凡 刘美惠子 禚艺 沈元赓 "随着新疆农业现代化水平的提升，农田白色污染仍需高度重视、持续治理。"在分组讨论中，自治区人 大代表、塔里木大学机械电气化工程学院二级教授周岭指出，地膜覆盖技术具有"增温、保墒、抑制杂 草生长"的功效，是保障粮食安全、促进农民增收的关键支撑技术。但长期大量使用地膜且回收不彻 底，会形成白色污染，制约农业可持续发展。 "实践证明，农田白色污染可防可治，关键需要政策、技术、宣传多管齐下。"周岭说，要构建覆盖地膜 生产、使用、回收、再利用的全链条闭环管理体系，推动农业绿色高质量发展。 周岭建议，严格源头管控，建立地膜全生命周期追溯体系；完善市场机制，制定"以效定补"激励政策， 培育"生产+回收+再利用"产业联合体，解决地膜"回收难、再利用难"问题；强化科技支撑，重点攻关全 生物降解地膜适应性技术及高效回收机械，支持生物转化等前沿技术推广应用 ...

Sugar Industry - In the 2025/26 crushing season, India's ethanol blending ratio in gasoline reached a milestone of 20% in December [2] - Current spot prices for sugar from Guangxi Sugar Group range from 5260 to 5330 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 10 CNY/ton; Yunnan Sugar Group's prices remain stable at 5130 to 5180 CNY/ton [2] - The raw sugar market remains in a fluctuating range, with production in the Northern Hemisphere meeting expectations; future attention should be on production conditions in Thailand and India [2] - Domestic spot transactions are slowing down, with continuous crushing and accumulating inventory; market sentiment is average, and a fluctuating market is expected to continue [2] Cotton Industry - On Monday, ICE cotton prices fell by 1.36%, closing at 62.94 cents/pound; Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased by 0.51%, closing at 14650 CNY/ton, with a reduction in open interest by 7457 contracts to 795900 contracts [6][7] - The cotton price index for 3128B was 15560 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton from the previous day [6] - Internationally, macroeconomic disturbances are increasing, with rising risk aversion; precious metals are reaching historical highs, and the US dollar index is weak, leading to a downward trend in cotton prices [7] - Domestically, cotton prices are expected to remain weak before the holiday due to limited stocking by textile enterprises and high inventory levels [7] - The current cotton inventory is at a yearly high, with increased imports, indicating ample supply [7]

（来源：工人日报） 本报讯 （记者王凤仪）记者从市场监管总局获悉，2025年度，新疆优质棉占比再次攀升，达到 72.25%，比上年增长7.64%，创下历史最高水平。市场监管总局指导地方市场监管部门推动新疆棉花产 业在引领质量提升和农民增收方面取得新成效。 质量追溯体系追溯精准率提升至99.89%，保证质量补贴精准兑付，有力推动惠农政策落地见效，棉花 质量创历史新高。兵地市场融合进程加速，区域协同发展迈上新台阶。创新构建"法治+信用+智慧"三 位一体监管体系，有力保障棉花收购加工秩序。法治监管"亮剑"，开展"监管护棉"行动，查处棉花质量 违法案件61起，切实保障加工秩序平稳运行；信用监管"画像"，完成企业信用分级，评定A级企业610 家、B级企业137家；智慧监管"预警"，依托数据平台实时监控，提前化解质量风险。自用棉公证检验 服务节约成本4950万元，依托棉花智慧监管平台帮助企业挽回经济损失252万元。 ...

人民财讯1月26日电，今天（1月26日），随着一列满载1395吨棉花的"雪莲速运"棉花班列从新疆阿克苏 站鸣笛启程，前往山东滨州市小营站，标志着全国首趟棉花快速班列顺利开行，为推动新疆棉花棉纱产 业发展、助力乡村振兴注入新动能。该列车运行时速提升至120公里/小时，预计棉花运输时间从原来的 10至15天缩短至3天，降低了棉花运输环节的物流成本。在棉花上货、装车等环节也做到快速装车、优 先挂运，实行"一库一方案"策略，为棉花运输搭建绿色通道。 转自：证券时报 ...