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棉花(纱)市场周报-20260327
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 10:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2605) rose with a weekly increase of about 1.18%. The export demand of US cotton is strong, but the domestic market is under pressure from supply, and the consumer end has weak new orders. In the short - term, cotton prices may fluctuate upward [5]. - Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2605) rose with a weekly increase of about 1.18% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: In the week ending March 19, 2026, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 202,400 bales, up 3% from the previous week and down 5% from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 100,600 bales, up 46% from the previous week and 43% from the average of the previous four weeks. Domestically, the supply is under pressure as foreign cotton continues to arrive at ports, inventory increases, and the market is lightly traded. As of March 26, the inventory at major ports of imported cotton increased by 1.750.09% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 582,000 tons. The consumer end has few new orders, and the de - stocking speed of finished products has slowed. The operating rate in Xinjiang remains stable at over 90%. As of March 26, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was 78.5%, down 0.13% from last week. The downstream is in the traditional small peak season, and there is still support from rigid demand. In the short - term, cotton prices may fluctuate upward [5]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the May contract of US cotton rose with a weekly increase of about 2.96%. As of March 17, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 128,445 lots, an increase of 12,453 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 112,220 lots, a decrease of 24,803 lots from the previous week; the net position was 16,225 lots, an increase of 37,256 lots from last week [11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: In the week ending March 19, 2026, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 202,400 bales, up 3% from the previous week. The international cotton spot price was 78.2 cents per pound, a decrease of 1.15 cents per pound from last week [17]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 1.18%, and the price of the cotton yarn futures 2605 contract fell by 0.19%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 181,886 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 923 lots. The number of cotton futures warrants at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 12,434, and that of cotton yarn futures warrants was 222 [20][26][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of March 27, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,814 yuan per ton. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 22,280 yuan per ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 15,470 yuan per ton; CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 25,040 yuan per ton [38][49]. - **Futures - Spot Spread**: This week, the spread between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou cotton was - 135 yuan per ton, and the spread between the spot prices of cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,466 yuan per ton. The basis between the price index of cotton 3128B and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was + 1,419 yuan per ton, and the basis between the spot price of cotton yarn C32S and the cotton yarn futures 2605 contract was 845 yuan per ton [35][43]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of March 26, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 14,081 yuan per ton, a decrease of 74 yuan per ton from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 13,169 yuan per ton, a decrease of 118 yuan per ton from last week. The import price index of cotton yarn (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,623 yuan per ton; C32S was 22,075 yuan per ton; JC32S was 23,710 yuan per ton [54]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of March 26, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,630 yuan per ton, a decrease of 112 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 3,399 yuan per ton, a decrease of 68 yuan per ton from last week [58]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of February 2026, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.477 million tons, a decrease of 5.38% month - on - month and 0.69% year - on - year. At the end of February, the industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 949,800 tons [63]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In February 2026, China's total cotton import volume was about 170,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 44.1%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%. In February 2026, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a decrease of 30,000 tons month - on - month and an increase of 20,000 tons year - on - year [66]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of February 28, 2026, the inventory days of yarn were 21.45 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%; the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.09% [70]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: From January to February 2026, China's textile and garment export volume was 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. Among them, textile exports were 25.57 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%; garment exports were 24.87 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [77]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of February 28, 2026, the cumulative retail sales of garments were 211.25 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 80.87%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of garment retail sales was 10.7%, a month - on - month increase of 282.14% [81]. 3.4. Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of cotton this week is presented in the form of a chart, but specific data is not elaborated [82]. - **Stock Market - Xinong Development**: Information about the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development is presented in the form of a chart, but specific data is not elaborated [85].
20260321棉系周报:内外价差走缩修复下方仍有刚需支撑-20260323
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 07:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the cotton industry is neutral - with a slight bullish bias [3] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market is influenced by multiple factors including macro - economic conditions, supply, demand, and inventory. Although there are some bearish factors such as the macro - economic recession expectation and import competition, the overall demand and inventory situation still support the cotton price in the medium - term. The release of subsidy policies in late March and early April will significantly impact the market's speculation on future supply - demand patterns [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Factors 3.1.1 International Macro - economy - The Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%. The market shifts from trading rate - cuts to trading economic recession due to the impact from the crude oil market. China and the US have economic and trade consultations in Paris, forming some new consensuses and agreeing to maintain further consultations [3] 3.1.2 Domestic Macro - economy - There is no specific macro - economic information provided other than the expectation of the new cotton subsidy policy [3] 3.2 Supply Factors 3.2.1 International Supply - Brazil's cotton production in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 3.7951 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year decrease. Pakistan's cotton yarn export volume in February 2026 is about 30,900 tons, a 1.5% month - on - month increase and a 57% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume from January to February is 61,300 tons [3] 3.2.2 Domestic Supply - The market is concerned about the new cotton target price subsidy policy. It is speculated that the production target of 36 million mu may be achieved in 2 - 3 years, and the direct subsidy price may be slightly reduced from 18,600 yuan/ton to 18,300 yuan/ton. The estimated domestic cotton production in the 26/27 season is about 7.24 - 7.25 million tons, with an estimated year - on - year decrease of about 8%. The 300,000 - ton sliding - duty quota for processing trade issued by the National Development and Reform Commission may relieve the supply - demand situation in the short - term but is unlikely to change the long - term supply - demand expectation. As of March 21, the national commercial cotton inventory is 5.0399 million tons, showing a seasonal decline [3][25][28] 3.3 Inventory Factors - The domestic commercial cotton inventory shows a seasonal decline, but the decline in Xinjiang slows down, resulting in a relatively stable year - on - year change. The terminal clothing inventory of state - owned enterprises is at a low level, and the inventory of finished products is being transferred from the yarn to the cloth segment, which supports the demand. The current inventory of grey fabrics is not high and may continue to support the market [3] 3.4 Demand Factors 3.4.1 International Demand - In January 2026, the US's total imports of textiles and clothing from China are about $1.078 billion, a 4.7% month - on - month increase and a 55.9% year - on - year decrease. The total imports of cotton textiles and clothing from China are about $288 million, a 13% month - on - month increase and a 56.6% year - on - year decrease. Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume in February 2026 is $1.311 billion, a 24.6% month - on - month decrease and a 7.2% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative export volume from January to February is $3.05 billion [3] 3.4.2 Domestic Demand - The downstream enterprises' operating rates are higher than the same period last year. The spinning profit is further repaired. However, the import of cotton yarn with high cost - performance squeezes the domestic cotton market. The overseas restocking has not started yet. The domestic retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles in January - February 2026 show a year - on - year growth of 4.5%. The textile and clothing export volume in January - February is $50.45 billion, a 17.6% year - on - year increase [3][44][47] 3.5 Price and Market Trends 3.5.1 US Cotton - Due to the international situation and the improvement of the domestic - foreign cotton price difference, as well as the good fundamentals in the short - term, the US cotton is expected to maintain a strong trend. If the macro - economic trading expectation improves, it may reach 70 cents per pound [3] 3.5.2 Zhengzhou Cotton - This week, the center of Zhengzhou cotton has declined, but it shows strong support at key positions. The market is still in a slightly bullish trend. The good start of the downstream industry and the transfer of finished product inventory support the cotton price. However, the upward breakthrough still depends on the supply - side policies. After the continuous rise of the futures price, the risk has increased [3] 3.6 USDA Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The overall situation in the March USDA global supply - demand balance sheet is slightly bearish. Globally, the production is increased by 246,000 tons to 2.634 million tons, the consumption is decreased by 139,000 tons to 1.7216 million tons, and the global inventory - to - consumption ratio is increased by 1.15% to 64.4%. In China, the production in 2025/26 is increased by 109,000 tons to 772,800 tons, the consumption is increased by 109,000 tons to 859,900 tons, and the monthly inventory - to - consumption ratio is decreased by 1.18% to 92.05% [4]
政策及进口增加,内外棉价差大幅收缩
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-22 12:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - International cotton market: This week, the macro - face and geopolitics in the international market caused significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, boosting cotton prices. However, the USDA March supply - demand report was bearish, with increased cotton production in Brazil and China. Also, the recent weak US cotton exports were unfavorable to cotton prices. Geopolitical uncertainties and a stronger US dollar restricted raw material demand, leading to high - level volatile cotton prices [8]. - Domestic cotton market: This week, Zhengzhou cotton prices fluctuated and declined at high levels due to increased domestic import supply. But the rising cost of cotton substitutes like polyester staple fiber and domestic cost support, along with the policy of reducing cotton - planting area, were long - term bullish factors, keeping cotton prices at a relatively high level [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market行情概述 3.1.1 This Week's Important Information at Home and Abroad - International news: Iran's attack on Persian Gulf energy facilities led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, worsening the global energy supply outlook and causing significant oil price fluctuations. US economic data, such as the New York Fed manufacturing index and the Michigan consumer confidence index, showed mixed trends. The Indian Cotton Association adjusted its cotton import, production, and inventory forecasts. Brazil's cotton exports in the first two weeks of March increased by 37% compared to the daily average in March last year. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report showed an increase in global cotton production and a decrease in consumption. US cotton export sales decreased [5]. - Domestic news: The national commercial cotton inventory decreased, while the port inventory increased. The spinning mills' cotton inventory decreased. The 2026/27 Xinjiang cotton target - price area regulation target was set at about 36 million mu, a reduction of over 10% from the previous year. China's cotton imports in February increased by 44.1% year - on - year, and the government issued 300,000 tons of sliding - scale duty processing trade quotas in March [5]. 3.1.2 Market Price Situation - Futures prices: The NYBOT 2 - cotton futures closing price increased by 2.34%, the Cotlook A index rose by 3.30%, the Zhengzhou cotton main - contract price decreased by 1.30%, and the China Cotton Price Index decreased by 1.18%. The China Imported Cotton Price Index increased by 3.72%, and the China Yarn Price Index increased by 0.45%. - Import profit: Cotton spot and futures import profits decreased by 16.52% and 24.24% respectively, and the yarn import profit decreased. - Basis: The cotton and yarn basis were relatively strong, with increases of 10.05% and 135.85% respectively [6]. 3.1.3 Supply - Demand Factor Situation - International market: Global cotton production, inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio remained unchanged but were expected to increase. US cotton weekly export net sales decreased by 22.31% but were expected to increase [7]. - Domestic market: China's cotton production remained unchanged but was expected to decrease. The commercial inventory decreased by 1.85%, imports increased by 88.89%, downstream开工率 increased by 1.24%, and textile exports decreased by 19.85% [7]. 3.1.4 This Week's Views and Strategies - International cotton market: Geopolitical and macro factors boosted cotton prices, but the bearish supply - demand report and weak US exports restricted price increases. - Domestic cotton market: Import pressure led to price fluctuations, but cost support and policy expectations were bullish. - Technical analysis: Zhengzhou cotton showed high - level volatile adjustment. - Strategy: It is advisable to buy at low prices and conduct short - term rolling operations [8]. 3.2 Spot Market Price and Spread 3.2.1 Spot Cotton and Yarn Price Trends - Cotton spot prices were strong at high levels, imported cotton prices continued to rebound significantly, and yarn prices were firm [15]. 3.2.2 Cotton and Yarn Basis - This week, the cotton basis fluctuated greatly and remained strong, while the yarn basis was strong and volatile [17]. 3.2.3 Cotton and Yarn Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Cotton import profit decreased but was still relatively strong, while yarn import profit decreased sharply [20]. 3.3 International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data 3.3.1 USDA Supply - Demand Data (March) - Global cotton production and ending inventory were increased, and demand was decreased [24]. 3.3.2 International Market: US Upland Cotton Weekly Exports - US upland cotton weekly exports decreased compared to the previous period [27]. 3.4 Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data 3.4.1 Domestic Cotton Market: March Supply - Demand Report - The March supply - demand report from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was unchanged, while the USDA increased China's cotton production and ending inventory [31]. 3.4.2 Domestic Cotton Market: Inventory Situation - The commercial inventory continued to decline rapidly, and the port inventory was rising [35]. 3.4.3 Domestic Cotton Market: Import Situation - Cotton imports increased month - on - month, but the overall import volume was still weak, and annual imports were expected to increase slightly [38]. 3.4.4 Domestic Textile Enterprises: Operating Conditions - The operating rate of domestic textile enterprises continued to increase, yarn inventory was quickly digested, raw material inventory procurement accelerated, and the overall processing profit loss decreased [42][45]. 3.4.5 Domestic Cotton Spinning and Textile Exports - Cotton spinning imports decreased month - on - month, and textile exports in January - February were still relatively strong [48]. 3.5 Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB exchange rate was still appreciating, and the US dollar index rose significantly this week due to geopolitical factors [52].
20260314棉系周报:内外因素共同作用,郑棉短期迎震荡调整-20260316
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 06:34
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to experience short - term wide - range oscillations due to the combined influence of internal and external factors, with the market still slightly favoring a bullish trend, but waiting for the implementation of supply - side realities and further industrial policy guidance [3]. - The USDA's March supply - demand balance sheet is overall slightly bearish, with global production increasing, consumption decreasing, and the global inventory - to - consumption ratio rising [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - China's CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in the past three years, and the core CPI increased by 1.8% year - on - year. The national PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [3]. - The US will launch two new trade investigations on the "excess industrial capacity" of 16 major trading partners including China, which may lead to new tariffs. China opposes such political manipulation, and the EU will respond firmly if the US violates trade agreements [3]. 2. Supply International - In the US, the new cotton inspection is basically completed, the CCC inventory has significantly decreased, and the non - commercial positions in CFTC have reduced short positions. In Brazil, the new - season cotton planting is basically completed, and mainstream institutions predict a year - on - year decrease in production, with a 10% decrease being more in line with market expectations. In Australia, the 2025/26 annual planting area and output are estimated [3]. Domestic - As of the end of March, attention should be paid to the impact of the new round of target price subsidy policy on new - season production capacity. If the subsidy remains at the current level, it may be difficult for production to decline significantly in the 26/27 season, which may limit the subsequent upward potential. The BCO and USDA have estimated the 26/27 production at 724 and 725 million tons respectively. The import volume in the first quarter may limit inventory reduction. There are rumors that the National Development and Reform Commission will issue an additional 300,000 tons of sliding - scale duty - added trade quotas, which may relieve short - term supply - demand pressure but is unlikely to change the long - term supply - demand outlook [3]. 3. Inventory - Nationally, the commercial inventory removal has accelerated slightly this week but is still lower than the peak - season performance of the same period, and the year - on - year pressure has increased slightly. Terminal clothing inventory is generally at a low level and continued to decline from January to February. The yarn and cloth inventories of sample enterprises decreased in February, but the yarn inventory removal was relatively weak. Overall, the recent inventory performance is relatively neutral, and with the high internal - external price difference, the import of cotton is expected to increase, and inventory reduction is unlikely to exceed expectations in the short term without significant demand growth [3]. 4. Demand International - In the US, retail sales increased by 6% from January to February, with clothing sales leading the growth at 11.05%. However, clothing imports in January decreased significantly by 17% year - on - year, which may have improved inventory removal in January compared to December. The US consumer confidence increased slightly from January to February but is still lower than the same period last year. The EU's consumer confidence index rebounded slightly in January but stagnated in February. In December, the total amount of clothing imports increased month - on - month, but China's share decreased. In Southeast Asia, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports continued to decline seasonally in February but were still the second - highest in the past five years [3]. Domestic - The resumption of work in downstream enterprises has slowed down significantly, and the operating rates of downstream yarn, cloth, and printing and dyeing enterprises have basically returned to the same - period level. In terms of profit, the downstream yarn price has increased slightly recently, and the profit of enterprises has rebounded from the bottom in the past week but is still in a loss state. The high - cost - performance foreign cotton may squeeze the domestic cotton market. The overseas inventory - replenishment narrative has not yet materialized, facing uncertainties due to trade policies and slow inventory removal, but the marginal negative impact is limited [3]. 5. USDA Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (March) - Globally, production increased by 246,000 tons to 26.34 million tons (mainly due to the increase in production in Brazil and China), consumption decreased by 139,000 tons to 17.216 million tons (mainly due to the decrease in production in countries such as Bangladesh, Turkey, and Vietnam), and the global inventory - to - consumption ratio increased by 1.15% to 64.4%. - In the US, there were no adjustments for the 2025/26 season. - In China, the 2025/26 production increased by 109,000 tons to 7.728 million tons, consumption increased by 109,000 tons to 8.599 million tons, and the monthly inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased by 1.18% to 92.05% [4]. 6. Domestic Supply - Sales have slightly accelerated, and the BCO has further lowered the production forecast. As of this week, the national new cotton inspection volume has exceeded 7.53 million tons, and the sales progress has reached 71.9%, an increase of 2.4% from last week. The 2026 Xinjiang cotton sowing will start in late March, with plans to reduce the planting area in some areas, but implementation faces challenges. The BCO has slightly lowered the new - season planting area and total production, with the national total production decreasing by 40,000 tons to 7.24 million tons [22][25]. - After the Spring Festival, inventory removal has slowed down, and the inventory pressure between Xinjiang and the inland has continued to diverge. As of March 13, the national commercial inventory decreased by 72,700 tons to 5.1351 million tons, higher than the same period by 391,500 tons; Xinjiang's commercial inventory decreased by 85,400 tons to 4.0151 million tons, higher than the same period by 26,600 tons; the commercial inventory in major inland provinces increased by 7,200 tons to 636,200 tons, higher than the same period by 285,100 tons. The average cotton inventory usage days of Chinese enterprises in February increased by 1.5 days to 40.8 days, higher than the same period by 2.6 days, and still at the highest level in the past five years [26][27]. - The pressure on grey cloth in February continued to weaken, and attention should be paid to terminal acceptance. In February, the national grey cloth inventory decreased by 2.7 days to 31.8 days, lower than the same period by 8 days, at the lowest level in the past five years; the national yarn inventory decreased by 0.31 days to 21.45 days, lower than the same period by 0.87 days, at a neutral level in the past five years. The industrial chain pressure is gradually easing, and there is still some inventory - replenishment expectation, but the actual inventory - replenishment intensity of the terminal needs further observation [28]. - Warehouse receipt registration has slowed down, and the total amount is relatively neutral. - The internal - external price difference has widened, and import pressure still exists. China's cotton imports in December were 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. The cumulative imports from January to December were 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. China's cotton yarn imports in December were 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons. The cumulative imports from January to December were 1.3255 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8% [33][35]. 7. Domestic Demand - The resumption of work in downstream enterprises has slowed down, and the profits of spinning enterprises have been repaired. As of March, the spinning mill operating rate increased by 2.8% to 76%, lower than the same period by 0.5%; the weaving mill operating rate increased by 7.4% to 42.8%, lower than the same period by 1.3%; the printing and dyeing mill operating rate increased by 7.69% to 50.15%, lower than the same period by 12.73%, and the gap has further narrowed compared to last week. Overall, downstream enterprises have basically returned to the same - period operating level, providing rigid support for peak - season demand. In terms of spinning profit, the national comprehensive profit has been repaired due to the slight increase in yarn price, but the latest profits of spinning enterprises in Xinjiang and other regions are still significantly below the break - even point [36][37]. - The turnover in the Light Textile City has continued to rebound and recover. The 5 - day moving average of cotton cloth turnover in the Light Textile City increased by 80,000 meters to 332,000 meters, higher than the same period by 88,000 meters [38][40]. - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of textile and clothing in the above - quota category slowed down significantly. The total retail sales of textile and clothing in the above - quota category in December were 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the total retail sales from January to December were 1,521.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The year - on - year growth rate in December was significantly lower than that in November, dragging down the overall performance in 2025 [41][42]. - From January to February, there was a high - speed growth of 17.6%, and the export volume reached a record high for the same period. The cumulative textile and clothing exports from January to February were 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%, including 25.57 billion US dollars for textiles, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%, and 24.87 billion US dollars for clothing, a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [43][45]. 8. Foreign Demand - In the US, clothing imports in January decreased year - on - year, and China's share remained stable. - In the US, the year - on - year growth of clothing retail sales in December continued to slow down, and inventory removal in the month slowed down year - on - year. - In the EU, clothing imports in December became stronger, but China's share continued to decline. - In December, Turkey's exports weakened, and Vietnam's data in February continued to decline but was relatively strong year - on - year [46][49][51][53].
棉花:关注外盘走势20260315
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-15 11:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton futures are expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short - term, but further upward movement requires more fundamental drivers. Domestic cotton futures are also expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend, and reaching new highs needs new upward drivers in both domestic and international cotton markets [1][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract opened at 64.20, reached a high of 66.25, a low of 64.08, and closed at 65.80, with a gain of 1.59 and a rise of 2.42%. The trading volume was 148,162 lots, a decrease of 24,966 lots, and the open interest was 155,381 lots, a decrease of 7,356 lots [4] - Zhengzhou cotton main contract opened at 15,330, reached a high of 15,765, a low of 15,185, and closed at 15,415, with a gain of 120 and a rise of 0.78%. The trading volume was 3,324,141 lots, an increase of 1,264,610 lots, and the open interest was 725,321 lots, a decrease of 39,759 lots [4] - Cotton yarn main contract opened at 21,215, reached a high of 21,835, a low of 21,125, and closed at 21,565, with a gain of 360 and a rise of 1.70%. The trading volume was 89,240 lots, an increase of 28,368 lots, and the open interest was 14,249 lots, a decrease of 367 lots [4] 3.2基本面 3.2.1国际棉花情况 - ICE cotton futures regained the upward momentum this week. The near - month May contract recovered last week's decline, and the far - month December contract hit a new high this year, reaching above 70 cents per pound. In the first half of the week, ICE cotton futures rebounded due to the decrease in warehouse receipts and commercial bargain - hunting. On Friday, it continued to rise due to the rumor of China's additional import quota [1][5] - The USDA's March 2026 monthly supply - demand report: The US cotton balance sheet remained unchanged. The global cotton balance sheet increased the 2025/26 global cotton production by 1.13 million bales, mainly due to the increase of 750,000 bales in Brazil's production and 500,000 bales in China's production. The global cotton consumption in 2025/26 was slightly reduced by 140,000 bales. The ending inventory in 2025/26 increased by 1.28 million bales to 76.39 million bales, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.4%, compared with 63.3% in the February report and 62% in the 2024/25 season [5] - As of the week ending March 5, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a 68% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 8,300 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 83,900 tons, a 31% increase from the previous week and a 77% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 2.1456 million tons, accounting for 82% of the annual predicted total export volume. The cumulative export shipment volume was 1.1906 million tons, accounting for 55% of the annual total signed volume [6] - Australia: The picking work in the main producing areas is accelerating. In January, the cotton export volume increased year - on - year. As of March 10, the water storage in the Murray - Darling Basin was about 48% of the total capacity, lower than 58% in the same period in 2025. In January, the export volume of Australian raw cotton was 53,000 tons, a 45% decrease from December but a 41% increase from the same period last year. China is still the main export destination. In the first six months of this international cotton year, the cumulative export volume of Australian raw cotton reached 838,000 tons, higher than 723,000 tons in the same period of the 2024/25 season [7] - Brazil: The market continues to focus on the new - crop production, and the current downward adjustment is limited. The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association (ABRAPA) predicts that the cotton production in Brazil this year will be 3.83 million tons, lower than 4.25 million tons in 2025. The production in Mato Grosso, the largest producing state, is expected to be 2.56 million tons, a 15% decrease from the previous season. The production in Piauí is expected to increase by nearly 41% to 93,355 tons. The export volume of raw cotton in the first week of March has reached nearly 88,000 tons, a significant increase compared with the same period in 2025. In the first seven months of the 2025/2026 season, the cumulative export volume of Brazilian raw cotton reached 1.992 million tons, higher than 1.905 million tons in the same period last year [8][9] - Bangladesh: The demand for cotton imports has rebounded. Due to the continuous conflict in the Middle East, spinning mills expect higher freight and basis quotes and lock in supplies in advance. However, the core shipping routes for imports and exports are still closed or severely blocked, and there are concerns about energy shortages and cost increases [9] - Pakistan: The planting area in the new season is still uncertain, and the demand for cotton imports is moderate. Some local estimates show that the planting area this year may decrease by about 5% - 10% compared with last year. Recently, the domestic cotton price has risen, which may encourage some farmers to continue growing cotton. The import demand this week is moderate. Yarn export inquiries still exist, but buyers are not highly accepting of the current high prices [9] - Southeast Asian textile industry chain startup rates: As of the week ending March 13, the startup rate of Indian textile enterprises was 68%, that of Vietnamese textile enterprises was 70%, and that of Pakistani textile enterprises was 68.5% [10] 3.2.2国内棉花情况 - Cotton prices fluctuated widely, and trading was still light. In the week ending March 13, cotton futures and spot prices fluctuated widely and generally rose. Spot point - price trading was generally cold, and only improved after the decline of Zhengzhou cotton on Friday. When Zhengzhou cotton was strong during the week, the fixed - price spot trading was relatively good. The high basis of cotton spot decreased slightly, and the mainstream basis in the market was temporarily stable [11] - As of March 13, there were 12,506 registered warehouse receipts and 285 pending warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton, totaling 12,791 receipts, equivalent to 537,222 tons. There were 259 registered warehouse receipts of domestic - produced cotton and 12,247 of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season [11] - Downstream trading and prices continued to improve. The pure - cotton yarn market was booming, and most orders of inland spinning mills were scheduled for more than one month later. The shipment of downstream weaving mills was good, and the startup rate was high. The supply of yarn of 40S and above was tight, and the sales of medium - and low - count varieties also improved. The spinning mills' inventory was gradually reduced, and both Xinjiang and inland spinning mills maintained a high startup rate. The overall transaction price increased, and the cash flow of spinning mills improved. The open interest of weaving mills continued to recover, and the inventory of cotton cloth continued to decrease. The raw material inventory of weaving mills increased [12] 3.3操作建议 - ICE cotton futures are expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short - term. Further upward movement requires more fundamental drivers. Domestic cotton futures are also expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend, and reaching new highs needs new upward drivers in both domestic and international cotton markets [17]
20260311申万期货品种策略日报-软商品-20260311
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-03-11 01:54
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate within a range overnight. The Iran situation may drive up the ethanol - to - sugar price, and sugar mills may adjust the sugar - making ratio. It is expected that the sugar - making ratio in the 26/27 crushing season may decline, and the raw sugar will maintain a volatile operation in the short term. In the medium term, the expected reduction in Brazil's output may offset part of the oversupply. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar is boosted by the external market, and attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment on the market [3]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated upwards overnight. The escalation of the Middle East situation has brought some adjustment and risk - aversion pressure to the market after digesting the previous bullish factors, but the callback range is expected to be relatively limited. In the long - term, cotton prices may still have room to rise under the expectation of tight supply and demand. In the domestic market, consumption has increased, and the carry - over inventory from last year is at a low level, so the supply this year is expected to be tight. Policy - regulated planting area may support cotton prices in the long - term [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Sugar Futures**: For domestic sugar futures contracts (SR2609, SR2605, SR2603), the prices decreased compared with the previous two days, with the decline rates of - 0.33%, - 0.50%, and - 0.09% respectively. The 11 - number sugar futures contracts (11 - number sugar 2610, 2607, 2605) also declined, with the decline rates of - 1.46%, - 1.70%, and - 1.46% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Cotton Futures**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated upwards overnight [3]. Spot Market - **Sugar Spot**: The spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming decreased compared with the previous day. The basis of Liuzhou and Kunming relative to SR2509 also changed [2]. - **Sugar Import Price**: The import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar, both within and outside the quota, decreased compared with the previous day. The differences between the futures price and the Thai sugar price also changed [2]. Inventory and Position - **Sugar Inventory and Position**: The number of sugar warehouse receipts and effective forecasts changed. The non - commercial long and short positions of ICE 11 - number sugar increased, and the long - to - short ratio rose from 0.43 to 0.44 [2]. Industry Information - **Sugar Industry**: Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of March decreased by 8% compared with the average daily export volume in March last year. As of March 10, in the 2025/26 crushing season in Guangxi, the number of sugar mills that had completed crushing decreased by 51 year - on - year, and the concentrated crushing is expected to be postponed to late March to early April. The ongoing Middle East conflict may lead Brazilian sugar mills to shift more production to ethanol in the next crushing season, reducing sugar production [3]. - **Cotton Industry**: The escalation of the Middle East situation has affected the cotton market, but in the long - term, the cotton market is expected to be supported by tight supply and demand and policy - regulated planting area [3].
瑞达期货棉花(纱)产业日报-20260309
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 09:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton market has increasing supply pressure as port inventories rise significantly due to a large amount of cotton arriving at ports previously. As of March 5th, the inventory at major ports for imported cotton was 55.65 million tons, a 3.42% increase from the previous period. On the consumption side, downstream consumption is gradually recovering. The market is mainly fulfilling previous orders, with limited new orders. The inventory of finished products is relatively low, and the pressure is limited. Considering the "Golden March and Silver April" traditional consumption season, the short - term upward trend of cotton prices is expected to remain unchanged [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 15,285, a decrease of 10; cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): -216,257, a decrease of 27,153; main contract open interest for cotton (daily, lots): 749,561, a decrease of 15,519; cotton warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 11,647, an increase of 204. - Cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 21,280, an increase of 75; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): -1,499, a decrease of 122; main contract open interest for cotton yarn (daily, lots): 14,518, a decrease of 98; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 43, an increase of 43 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 16,632, a decrease of 46; China Yarn Price Index: Pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count (daily, yuan/ton): 21,960, an increase of 20. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,478, an increase of 33; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: Pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count (daily, yuan/ton): 21,875, an increase of 110. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,657, an increase of 24; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: Pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count (daily, yuan/ton): 23,451, an increase of 114 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, an increase of 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, an increase of 0.54 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,262, a decrease of 75; industrial inventory of cotton nationwide (monthly, million tons): 86.1, an increase of 1.3. - Cotton import volume (monthly, million tons): 18, an increase of 6; cotton yarn import volume (monthly, tons): 170,000, an increase of 20,000. - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 2,975, a decrease of 70; commercial inventory of cotton nationwide (monthly, million tons): 578.87, an increase of 0.4 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn (monthly, days): 21.71, a decrease of 3.41; inventory days of grey cloth (monthly, days): 33.13, a decrease of 0.63. - Cloth output (monthly, billion meters): 30.1, an increase of 2; yarn output (monthly, million tons): 213.2, an increase of 9.3. - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories (monthly, million US dollars): 134,124,120, an increase of 18,187,260; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products (monthly, million US dollars): 125,796,030, an increase of 3,038,700 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton (%): 18.42, a decrease of 0.62; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton (%): 18.42, a decrease of 0.62. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 16.04, a decrease of 0.03; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 13.76, no change [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory is in a downward trend. As of March 6, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.2078 billion tons, a decrease of 598,000 tons (1.14% decrease) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 4.0151 billion tons, a decrease of 854,000 tons (2.08% decrease) from the previous week; the commercial cotton in the inland area was 636,200 tons, an increase of 72,000 tons (1.14% increase) from the previous week. - According to the USDA report, in the week ending February 26, the net increase in export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 150,420 bales, a 416% decrease from the previous week and a 50% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of U.S. upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 282,200 bales, a 46% increase from the previous week and a 43% increase from the average of the previous four - week level. The cotton export contract volume in the U.S. decreased during that week [2]
瑞达期货棉花(纱)产业日报-20260305
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-05 09:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, the inventory inflow speed of port cotton has slowed down, while the outflow speed is acceptable due to increased downstream procurement after the festival. As of February 26th, the inventory at major import cotton ports was 538,100 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. [2] - Xinjiang textile enterprises have basically resumed work, the spinning operation rate has rebounded, and the finished product inventory has increased. They are mainly shipping pre - ordered products. [2] - The current market is in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April", and the short - term upward trend of cotton prices remains unchanged. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 15,250 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 197,667 lots, down 5,134 lots; main contract cotton holding volume: 768,267 lots, up 62 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 11,390 lots, up 11 lots. [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 21,055 yuan/ton, unchanged; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 1,799 lots, down 264 lots; main contract cotton yarn holding volume: 14,331 lots, up 321 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 0 lots, unchanged. [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 16,583 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s): 21,920 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,461 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty): 13,651 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan. [2] - Arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s): 21,826 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32s): 23,398 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - cotton yarn price difference: 5,337 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 861,000 tons, up 13,000 tons. [2] - Cotton import volume (monthly): 180,000 tons, up 60,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume (monthly): 170,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. [2] - Imported cotton profit: 2,932 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 5.7887 million tons, up 4,000 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn: 21.71 days, down 3.41 days; inventory days of grey cloth: 33.13 days, down 0.63 days. [2] - Monthly cloth output: 3.01 billion meters, up 200 million meters; monthly yarn output: 2.132 million tons, up 93,000 tons. [2] - Monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 134,124,120,000 US dollars, up 18,187,260,000 US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 125,796,030,000 US dollars, up 3,038,700,000 US dollars. [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton: 17.45%, up 1.29%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton: 17.45%, up 1.29%. [2] - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 18.25%, down 0.12%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 13.76%, up 0.02%. [2] Industry News - Australian industry institutions reported that Australia's cotton output in the 2024/25 season was 5.4 million bales, and cotton exports continued to grow. From March to December 2025, the cumulative exports were 5.07 million bales, accounting for 95% of the total output, the second - highest in history. [2] - Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed higher on Wednesday, rebounding from the nearly two - week low hit in the previous trading day, as investors bought on dips and the US dollar weakened. The ICE May cotton futures contract rose 0.12 cents, or 0.19%, to settle at 64.16 cents per pound. [2]
棉花周报:郑棉增仓上涨,提前博弈旺季-20260228
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-02-28 13:44
Report Title - Zhengmian Increases Positions and Rises, Anticipating the Peak Season in Advance: Cotton Weekly Report 2026/02/28 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures significantly increased positions and rose. The market is anticipating the peak season in March in advance. Attention should be paid to the downstream startup situation in March. If it cooperates, Zhengzhou cotton still has room to rise. The strategy is to maintain buying on dips [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: From February 12th to 19th, US current - year cotton export sales were 60,900 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.0507 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 156,900 tons. Exports to China were 600 tons that week, with cumulative exports of 98,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83,800 tons. As of February 27th, the spinning mill startup rate was 64.6%, a 24.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.36 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. In January, the forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton output was 26 million tons, an 80,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast and a 200,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. In January, the forecast for US cotton output was 3.03 million tons, a 76,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast. Brazil's output forecast remained at 4.08 million tons; India's output was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's output was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons. On February 21st, US President Trump raised the 10% global import tariff announced the previous day to 15% [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: After the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures increased positions and rose. The market is anticipating the March peak season in advance. Focus on the downstream startup situation in March. If it cooperates, Zhengzhou cotton still has room to rise. The strategy is to maintain buying on dips [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is 1,324 yuan/ton with a +0.5 long - short score, indicating a strengthening basis. The Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread is - 15 yuan/ton with a +0 score, showing little change. The spinning immediate profit is - 1,924 yuan/ton with a +0 score, indicating a decrease in profit. The Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread is 193 yuan/ton with a +1 score, indicating a strong price in the production area. The FC index M 1% is 12,883 yuan/ton and the FC index M sliding - scale tariff is 13,901 yuan/ton with a - 0.5 score, indicating that domestic valuation is relatively high compared to the international market. The strategy is to maintain buying on dips [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: The unilateral strategy is to buy on pullbacks, driven by the reduction in the new - year planting area and good macro - expectations [11]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: The report shows the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract from 2022 to 2026 [24][25]. - **Import Profit**: It presents the trends of the 1% tariff internal - external spread and the sliding - scale tariff internal - external spread from 2022 to 2026 [26][27]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread**: It shows the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 spread and the 5 - 9 spread in different contract years [28][29]. - **Production and Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit**: It presents the trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill immediate profit from 2022 to 2026 [30][31]. - **External Market Spread**: It shows the trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA Index 1% tariff from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [34][35]. 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Output**: It shows the trends of China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and the Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price [38][39]. - **Cotton Import Volume**: It presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton import volumes from 2020/21 to 2024/25 [40][41]. - **US Export Contract Quantity to China**: It shows the trends of the US cumulative and weekly export contract quantities to China from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [42][43]. - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: It presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [44][45]. - **Downstream Startup Rate**: It shows the trends of the spinning mill and weaving mill startup rates from 2022 to 2026 [47][48]. - **National Sales Progress**: It presents the trends of the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [50][51]. - **Cotton Inventory**: It shows the trends of China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the monthly commercial + industrial cotton inventory from 2021 to 2026 [52][53]. - **Spinning Mill's Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory**: It presents the trends of the spinning mill's cotton inventory and yarn inventory days from 2022 to 2026 [54][55]. 3.4. International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation**: It shows the trends of the proportion of non - drought - affected planting areas and the cotton good - quality rate in the US from 2022 to 2026 [58][59]. - **US Production Situation**: It presents the trends of the US bi - weekly and cumulative cotton processing volumes from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [60][61]. - **US Output and Planting Area**: It shows the trends of the US cotton output forecast and the planting area from 2022 to 2026 [62][64]. - **US Export Contract Progress**: It presents the trends of the US current - year cumulative and weekly export contract volumes from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [65][66]. - **US Export Shipment Volume**: It shows the trends of the US annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [67][68]. - **US Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: It presents the trends of the US cotton supply surplus/shortage and the inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2022 to 2026 [69]. - **Brazil Output and Planting Area**: It shows the trends of Brazil's cotton planting area and output from 2022 to 2026 [70][71]. - **Brazil Export Volume**: It presents the trends of Brazil's cotton export volume forecast and monthly export volume from 2021 to 2025 [73]. - **Brazil Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: It shows the trends of Brazil's cotton supply surplus/shortage and the inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2022 to 2026 [74]. - **India Output and Planting Area**: It presents the trends of India's cotton planting area and output from 2022 to 2026 [75][76]. - **India Consumption and Import and Export**: It shows the trends of India's cotton consumption, import and export volumes from 2022 to 2026 [77][78]. - **India Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: It presents the trends of India's cotton supply surplus/shortage and the inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2022 to 2026 [79].
巴西2月前三周累计装出未加工的棉花21.87万吨
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2026-02-24 01:55
Core Insights - Brazil's Secretary of Foreign Trade (Secex) reported that in the first three weeks of February, the country exported 218,700 tons of raw cotton, compared to a total export of 274,600 tons in February of the previous year [1] - The average daily shipment of cotton reached 16,800 tons, marking a 22.51% increase from the average of 13,700 tons per day in February of last year [1] Summary by Category - **Export Volume** - Brazil exported 218,700 tons of raw cotton in the first three weeks of February [1] - Last year's total export volume for February was 274,600 tons [1] - **Daily Shipment** - The average daily shipment for February was 16,800 tons [1] - This represents a 22.51% increase compared to last year's daily average of 13,700 tons [1]