Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures market is experiencing a strong rally, with the main contract in Zhengzhou breaking through key resistance levels, showing a nearly 1,000 yuan per ton increase since December, significantly outperforming U.S. cotton and becoming a focal point in the commodity market [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent price increase in Zheng cotton is driven by strong expectations of reduced cotton production in the new year, which has been gradually confirmed by recent developments [2] - The Xinjiang Cotton Association indicated that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang may face structural reductions in 2026, which is expected to influence the domestic cotton supply landscape long-term [2] - The current supply-demand balance in the cotton market is tight, with a notable decrease in import ratios and low carryover stocks, maintaining a robust long-term fundamental outlook [3] Group 2: Demand Factors - The resilience of demand in the cotton market is a significant driver of the current price trend, supported by retail sales data and operational rates of midstream textile enterprises [3] - In November, retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles reached 154.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, indicating stable demand in the cotton textile industry [3] Group 3: Price Pressures and Market Sentiment - The market is characterized by a coexistence of strong expectations and weak realities, with rising cotton prices exceeding processing costs for ginning factories, leading to some hedging pressure [4] - The seasonal off-peak period is affecting downstream cotton yarn prices, which are struggling to keep pace with rising cotton prices, potentially impacting profit margins for yarn manufacturers [4] - The price disparity between Zheng cotton and U.S. cotton is widening, with U.S. cotton prices remaining stagnant due to a lack of sufficient drivers, although there are concerns about indirect impacts from imported cotton yarn on domestic consumption [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The cotton import volume remains at historical lows, with a 67.5% year-on-year decrease expected for the 2024/2025 season, which is unlikely to alter the domestic supply structure significantly [5] - Short-term cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, driven by a combination of strong expectations and realities, reducing the likelihood of a shift to bearish sentiment [5] - The cotton subsidy policy is increasingly favoring high-quality cotton, with expectations for adjustments in the target price subsidy policy in 2026, which could further support cotton prices [5] - Overall, short-term market optimism is likely to persist, with medium to long-term projections indicating potential upward price movement supported by supply reduction expectations and resilient demand [5]

（文章来源：新华财经） 张家港保税区纺织原料市场24日发布的数据显示，截至2025年12月22日，张家港保税区棉花总库存3.41 万吨，较去年同比减少0.39%。其中保税棉库存3.20万吨，同比减少0.40%；非保税棉库存0.21万吨，同 比减少0.23%。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： 消息方面，2025/26榨季截至12月20日，泰国累计甘蔗入榨量为781.22万吨，较去年同期的917.97万吨减 少136.75万吨，降幅14.9%；甘蔗含糖分11.36%，较去年同期的11.48%减少0.12%；产糖率为8.183%， 较去年同期的8.121%减少0.062%；产糖量为63.93万吨，较去年同期的74.55万吨减少10.62万吨，降幅 14.25%。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团报价区间为5250~5370元/吨，持平；云南制糖集团报价 5120~5230元/吨，个别下调10元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为5670~5900元/吨，少数上调20元/吨。原 糖方面，泰国进入生产季，未来可继续关注生产进度。国内现货市场止跌企稳，市场情绪回暖，成交温 和回升。盘面也伴随现货市场小幅反弹，本轮下跌暂时止住，预计未来窄幅震荡，静待新的指引。 棉花： 周一，ICE美棉下跌0.22%，报收63.61美分/磅，CF601环比上涨0.61%，报收14070元/吨，主力合约持仓 环比增加23519手至78.5万手。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍有扰 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 消息方面，巴西12月前两周出口糖和糖蜜160.08万吨，较去年同期的116.29万吨增加43.79万吨，增幅 37.65%；日均出口量为16.01万吨。2024年12月，巴西糖出口量为283.37万吨，日均出口量为13.49万 吨。现货报价方面，广西新糖报价5310~5410元/吨，下调20~30元/吨；云南制糖集团新糖报价 5180~5300元/吨，下调20~30元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为5670~5900元/吨，部分下调30~40元/吨。 原糖方面，并无新驱动，北半球两大主产国正常生产，印度暂时并无新增出口施压糖价，仍以区间行情 对待。国内现货价格继续下调，市场情绪脆弱，盘面大幅下行后产业承压，悲观情绪下，暂无止跌迹 象，仍需时间释放情绪。保持空头思路，但避免低位追空。 白糖： 消息方面，巴西12月前两周出口糖和糖蜜160.08万吨，较去年同期的116.29万吨增加43.79万吨，增幅 37.65%；日均出口量为16.01万吨。2024年12月，巴西糖出口量为283.37万吨，日均出口量为13.49万 吨。现货报价方面，广西新糖报价53 ...

印度政府棉花采购机构CCI估计，到上周末其已采购325.9万包棉花(每包170公斤)。 预计2025/26年度棉花总供应量将从2023/24年度的4015.8万包和2024/25年度3861.1万包下降到3776.5万 包。与此相反，预计总需求将降至3370万包，低于前2个年度的3541.1万包和3406.1万包，反映出棉厂产 量下降和出口前景疲软。 （来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 12月16日(周二)，印度棉花公司(CCI)以最低支持价格(MSP)大举采购棉花，这正导致棉厂面临优质棉花 供应趋紧问题，尽管该国2025/26年度棉花产量、需求、期末库存都在下降。 由于CCI以更高的MSP价格大举采购，印度国内防止业正面临低品质棉花供应过剩的局面，因种植户将 高品质棉花销售给CCI。 业内人士称，CCI已从特伦甘纳邦采购145万包，占总采购量的近一半。CCI还从印度北部购买27万包， 自马哈拉施特拉邦购买59.1万包，自中央邦购买18.3万包，自卡纳塔克邦采购36.3万包，自奥里萨邦购 买44000包，自古吉拉特邦采购19.7万包，自安得拉邦采购16.1万包。 贸易商表示，截至11月底，约有700万包籽 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 中储棉花信息中心最新报告显示，据国家棉花市场监测系统对全国14个省（市、自治区）74家纺织企业 的调查显示，截至2025年12月初，被调查企业棉花平均库存使用天数约为38.7天（含到港进口棉数 量），环比减少0.1天，同比增加3.7天，比近五年（即2019-2024年，扣除2020年，下同）同期平均水平 增加8.2天。测算全国棉花工业库存约84.8万吨，环比减少0.2%，同比增加10.6%，比近五年同期平均水 平增加31.6%。全国主要省份棉花工业库存状况不一，新疆、河北、福建、浙江省棉花工业库存折天数 相对较高。 ...

白糖： 消息方面，巴西12月第一周出口糖81.75万吨，日均出口量为16.35万吨，较上年12月全月的日均出口量 13.49万吨增加21%。上年12月全月出口量为283.37万吨。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团报价区间为 5390~5490元/吨，云南制糖集团报价5320~5360元/吨，产区报价持稳；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5700~5900元/吨，个别下调30元/吨。原糖昨日夜间时段期价下行，刷新短期低点，主要还是因担心产 量过剩。国内现货价格有止跌迹象，关注后期成交情况，盘面暂时呈震荡状态，静待新的驱动。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 棉花： 白糖： 消息方面，巴西12月第一周出口糖81.75万吨，日均出口量为16.35万吨，较上年12月全月的日均出口量 13.49万吨增加21%。上年12月全月出口量为283.37万吨。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团报价区间为 5390~5490元/吨，云南制糖集团报价5320~5360元/吨，产区报价持稳；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5700~5900元/吨，个别下调30元/吨。原糖昨日夜间时段期价下行，刷新短期低点，主要还是因担心产 量过剩。 ...

黄红雨认为，棉花产业的稳定发展离不开对产区源头的风险把控。近年来，同舟集团将服务触角延伸至 国内核心产棉区——新疆，聚焦当地棉企、棉农在生产经营中的价格波动痛点，大力推广棉花期货、期 权相结合的含权贸易模式。通过实地走访、专场培训等形式，同舟集团专业团队向产区企业详细拆解含 权贸易的运作逻辑，从期货套保策略制定，到期权工具对冲价格波动风险，再到结合现货交易的综合方 案设计，手把手帮助企业掌握"锁定成本、保障收益"的实操方法。经过同舟集团的不懈努力，新疆棉花 主产区已有一定规模的企业将含权贸易模式融入日常经营，有效规避了棉花价格波动带来的经营风险， 实现稳健发展。 "'郑商所期权专项奖'通过设置投教活动优秀组织奖，激励机构推广期权知识；通过设置参赛选手奖， 筛选优秀交易人才，引导资金方关注棉花期权品种，显著提升了产业企业的参与度。"黄红雨说。 棉花作为关系国计民生的重要农产品，其价格波动直接影响棉农、轧花厂、纺织企业等产业企业的生产 经营效益。近年来，随着我国衍生品市场不断成熟，棉花期权逐渐成为棉花产业发展的"稳定器"。以河 南同舟国际贸易集团有限公司（下称同舟集团）为代表的棉花产业龙头企业，深耕产融结合，以" ...

来源：市场资讯 白糖： 消息方面，S&P Global预计巴西中南部地区11月上半月甘蔗压榨量为1885万吨，同比增加14.9%；预计 食糖产量为107.5万吨，同比增加18.9%；预计制糖比为41.94%。现货报价方面，广西新糖报价区间为 5580~5650元/吨，持平；云南制糖集团陈糖报价5350~5400元/吨，新糖报价5310~5500元/吨，部分新糖 下调10元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为5750~5890元/吨，个别上调10元/吨。原糖方面，巴西本榨季趋 于收榨，有机构调低对于26/27榨季巴西产量的预估，北半球方面仍保持增产预期不变。国内目前现货 成交一般，报价暂时持平，随着更多糖厂开榨，未来现货价格预计仍将承压。期货方面1月合约即将移 仓，震荡加剧，静待5月合约空头入场机会。 棉花： 周三，ICE美棉上涨0.59%，报收64.61美分/磅，CF601环比持平，报收13625元/吨，主力合约持仓环比 下降11839手至54.06万手，棉花3128B现货价格指数14475元/吨，较前一日基本持平。国际市场方面， 宏观层面是近期市场关注重点，随着美国经济数据、报告陆续恢复发布，美联储12月降息25b ...

Report Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - Globally in the 2025/26 cotton season, supply increases with major producers maintaining high levels, consumption is expected to see slight growth, and trade policies and Fed's interest - rate cuts will impact cotton prices, which are expected to fluctuate widely [2][55]. - In the domestic market for the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton supply significantly increases, new - cotton costs change little, textile enterprise inventories are at a healthy level, and with stable domestic demand and improved exports, cotton prices may rise [3][56]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **ICE Cotton Futures**: The annual trend is divided into two stages. From the beginning of the year to the end of September, it was in a wide - range weak oscillation. From October to the end of the year, it further weakened due to macro - negatives and weak fundamentals [5][6]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Futures**: The annual trend has four stages. It oscillated and then dropped rapidly from the beginning of the year to early April, rebounded from mid - April to mid - July, oscillated from mid - July to late September, and weakened again from late September to the end of the year [7][8]. 2. International Market Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand situation is slightly looser. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 63.9%, up 1.3 percentage points from 2024/25. Production rises by 300,000 tons, consumption increases slightly by 90,000 tons, and ending inventory increases by 390,000 tons [13]. - **US Cotton**: The USDA raised the 2025/26 production forecast to 14.12 million bales, up 900,000 bales from the September report. Exports are expected to increase to 1.22 million bales, and ending inventory is up 20% to 4.3 million bales. Good weather led to a significant increase in yield [15][16]. - **Brazilian Cotton**: The USDA's November report shows a production forecast of 4.09 million tons, up 110,000 tons month - on - month, and exports are expected to reach 3.16 million tons. Although Brazilian cotton exports were strong in the first three quarters of 2025, future exports may face more competition [22][23]. - **Indian Cotton**: The 2025/26 initial inventory is expected to rise to about 1.03 million tons, a 55% increase. Production is expected to be 5.19 million tons, down 130,000 tons. Domestic consumption is expected to slow to 5.1 million tons. With sufficient supply and increased imports, exports may increase [25][26]. - **Global Economy**: The global economy is showing signs of a mild slow - down. The Fed is in an easing cycle, and there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut in 2026. Tariff policies may lead to a re - structuring of the global textile supply chain [29][30]. 3. Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply - Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic production is expected to reach 7.3 million tons, imports are expected to be 1.18 million tons, and consumption is slightly lower than the previous year. Overall, the supply - demand situation is slightly looser [31]. - **Production and Cost**: The USDA estimates the 2025/26 cotton production at 7.3 million tons, while domestic estimates are higher at 7.42 million tons. New - cotton costs are relatively low, with the average machine - picked cotton seed - cotton purchase price in Xinjiang between 6 - 6.5 yuan/kg [35][36]. - **Imports**: It is expected that imports in the 2025/26 season will increase slightly to 1.2 million tons. The reduction of tariffs on US cotton imports from 25% to 15% is expected to promote imports [40]. - **Textile Industry**: Since the second half of 2025, the textile industry has been relatively healthy, with a decrease in pure - cotton yarn inventory and an increase in the industry's prosperity index. In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic sales of textiles and clothing continued to grow moderately [45][46]. - **Exports**: In 2025, the export of textiles and clothing faced complex situations. With the narrowing of the effective tax - rate gap between China and Southeast Asian countries, direct exports to the US are expected to increase significantly in 2026 [50][51]. 4. Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - **International Market**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton supply increases, consumption may see slight growth, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to trade - policy changes [55]. - **Domestic Market**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton supply increases, new - cotton costs change little, and with stable domestic demand and improved exports, cotton prices may rise [56].