国信期货研究 Page 1 2025 年 11 月 23 日 主要结论 国际市场小结：2025/26 年度全球棉花供应增加，美国单产大幅增加，各主 产国保持较高供应水平。消费方面预计勉强实现微幅增长，全球经济仍需面临下 行风险，支撑来自各国逆周期操作政策。贸易流方面，由于美国对各国经贸谈判 取得一定进展，利好美棉出口，巴西面临的竞争压力较大，印度棉花出口或有所 增加。宏观方面，美联储进入降息周期，对于全球棉花消费来说存在一定支撑。 但需要持续关注全球贸易政策变化，如果再度出现紧张，仍会导致棉价的短期下 行。总体来看，供需矛盾并不突出，2025/26 年度全球棉价预计宽幅震荡。 国内市场小结：2025/26 年度国产棉供应显著增加，新棉成本较上一年度变 化不大，相对往年来看，轧花厂套盘难度不大，成本支撑效应或在本年度后期显 现。纺织企业成品库存持续下降至相对健康水平，内销销售额同比增加，展现出 一定韧性，消费或在经济刺激政策下持稳，但行业整体盈利空间有限，能够接受 的上游成本增加较低。出口端 2026 年面临的局面或好于 2025 年，同时国内企业 正逐步开辟新的出口市场。总体来看，当前棉价处于偏低水平，在进口 ...

据张家港保税区纺织原料市场，截至2025年11月10日，张家港保税区棉花总库存3.34万吨，较去年同比 减少0.41%。其中保税棉3.11吨，较去年同比减少0.42%；非保税棉0.22万吨，较去年同比减少0.08%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

花期货日报 1 期货市场 当日（20251106），郑商所棉花期货主力合约 CF2601 早盘以 13600元/吨开盘,盘中窄幅震荡, 日内峰值触及 13630元/吨, 日内 低点至 13555 元/吨,最终收于 13605 元/吨,相较于前一交易日结 第价,涨 70 元/吨,涨幅为 0.52%。全天成交量为 178288 手，持仓 量减持 1553 手，总持仓量至 579138 手。 成文日期:20251106 报告周期: 日报 研究员:漆建华(从业资格号:F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0017731) 1.1 合约行情 昆主力合约分 1.2 品种价格 棉花期货 6 个合约,各合约均收涨,品种持仓量 944677 手,较 上一交易日增加 1307 手。 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图 2: 棉花期货日行情表 | 合约代码 | 昨结算 | 今开盘 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 令收留 | 今結算 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交量(手) | 持仓量 | 增减量 | 成交额 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints The current cotton market has a limited change in the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short - term. High supply significantly suppresses the market. As cotton procurement nears completion, short - term marginal drivers weaken, reducing volatility. The enthusiasm for capital speculation is low, but the short - selling sentiment of leading institutions has cooled. Downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flow have not deteriorated after more than two months of tortuous recovery, and there is still sales resilience in the domestic market, which may maintain the rigid demand for raw materials in the future. With weak import expectations, it is expected to shrink the supply - demand gap in the medium - to - long - term. Currently, the market price is near the hedging pressure level, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback opportunities during the transmission of supply pressure or sell put options at the bottom, and also pay attention to short - term reverse arbitrage opportunities. The reference range is 13330 - 13830 [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Factors - **International**: Baysant said that the China - US trade agreement might be signed as early as next week, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that China is willing to implement the important consensus of the two heads of state with the US. As of November 4 (US Eastern Time), the US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the US federal government's "shutdown" entered the 35th day, tying the longest "shutdown" record in US history [3]. - **Domestic**: Not mentioned in the provided content. Supply Factors - **International**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested, with 730,000 tons of new cotton inspected, accounting for about 25% of the total. Precipitation in major cotton - growing areas decreased in early November, which is beneficial for harvesting. In India, the daily listing volume of new cotton is about 14,000 tons, and it is expected that precipitation in cotton - growing areas will decrease in January, which is expected to accelerate procurement under the Minimum Support Price (MSP). In Pakistan, as of the end of October, the listing volume of new cotton was 688,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In Brazil, the cotton processing progress in 2025 was 63.67%, slower than last year [3]. - **Domestic**: It is expected that cotton procurement in Xinjiang will end in mid - to - early November. The inspection progress is faster than the same period, and the sales progress is still relatively fast. The quality of new cotton in northern Xinjiang is not as expected, and ginneries have become more cautious in procurement. It is estimated that in the 2025/26 season, the ginned cotton cost of high - cost ginneries is about 14,700 - 15,000 yuan/ton (under official standards), while low - cost ginneries can control it within 14,600 yuan/ton. Low - cost ginneries can make a small profit by selling at the current price [3]. - **Picking and Processing Progress**: The national new cotton picking progress reached 87.1%, the delivery progress was 90.4%, the processing progress was 39.4%, and the national new cotton inspection volume exceeded 2.25 million tons; the sales progress was 14.2%, 5.8% faster than the same period [17]. - **Cost**: The national average purchase price of seed cotton has rebounded steadily. The average price of new - season ginned cotton has increased to 14,500 yuan/ton. It is estimated that in the 2025/26 season, the ginned cotton cost of high - cost ginneries is about 14,700 - 15,000 yuan/ton (under official standards), while low - cost ginneries can control it within 14,600 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inventory**: The national commercial cotton inventory increased by 521,700 tons week - on - week to 2.8478 million tons, lower than the same period by 278,800 tons; the Xinjiang commercial inventory increased to 1.839 million tons, higher than the same period by 269,600 tons; the commercial inventory in major inland provinces increased to 165,200 tons, lower than the same period by 14,300 tons. The inventory of finished products such as pure - cotton yarn, terminal grey fabric, and polyester - cotton yarn decreased [19]. - **Imports**: In September 2025, China imported about 100,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 18.7%; from January to September 2025, China imported about 680,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 69.8%. In September 2025, China imported about 127,700 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21% and a year - on - year increase of 15.02%. From January to September, the total import volume of cotton yarn was about 1.0366 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.44% [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Affected by the improvement of warehouse receipt premiums and the firmness of the market, the number of warehouse receipts has increased [3]. Demand Factors - **International**: In the US, clothing retail and wholesale sales continued to grow in August, and consumer confidence continued to recover in October. In Vietnam, clothing and textile exports decreased month - on - month in October and were lower than the same period. In the EU, the consumer confidence index continued to recover in October, but the growth rate of clothing imports decreased significantly in August, and the import amount declined [3]. - **Domestic**: In November, the overall trading level in the downstream market was still average, with obvious market negotiation characteristics. The current market transactions are mainly concentrated in local low - basis resources and the rigid demand procurement of enterprises, with no obvious new orders. Enterprises mainly focus on pre - sales. This week, the operating rates of spinning and weaving enterprises changed little week - on - week, the repair of spinning profits slowed down, the trading volume in the downstream textile market decreased marginally and was the same as the same period; the prices of auxiliary materials in the Keqiao area continued to fall to a low level, and the improvement of the terminal volume - price trend was not good [3]. - **Operating Rates**: This week, the spinning mill operating rate decreased by 0.2% week - on - week to 65.6%, 6.3% lower than the same period; the weaving mill operating rate increased by 0.1% week - on - week to 37.6%, 10.1% lower than the same period [26]. - **Profits**: The immediate profit of the representative 32 - count yarn has remained stable at around - 900 yuan/ton recently, and the profit of textile enterprises in Xinjiang is about 600 yuan/ton. The cumulative year - on - year value of industry profits in September rebounded to - 18.5% [26]. - **Market Transactions**: This week, the 5 - day moving average of cotton cloth trading volume in the Textile City decreased by 28,000 meters week - on - week to 336,000 meters, the same as the same period. In Keqiao, the fabric price index increased by 0.07 to 110.86, and the auxiliary material price index decreased by 0.35 to 110.63 [28]. - **PMI**: In September, the PMI of the cotton textile industry increased by 1.57% month - on - month to 44.29%, 12.29% lower than the same period, and it has been below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. In terms of demand, the new order PMI increased by 1.98% month - on - month to 48.72%, 9.44% lower than the same period; the operating rate PMI increased by 4.07% month - on - month to 41.03%, 17.13% lower than the same period. In terms of inventory, the cotton yarn inventory PMI increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 56.41%, 3.79% higher than the same period; the cotton inventory increased by 1.75% month - on - month to 41.3%, 3.79% higher than the same period [31]. - **Retail Sales**: In September, the total retail sales of enterprises in the clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles categories above the designated size reached 123.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%, an increase from the 3.1% year - on - year growth rate in August; from January to September, the cumulative total retail sales of these enterprises were 1.0613 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [33]. - **Exports**: In October, the export volume of textile and clothing was 22.26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 243.94 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. Among them, the export volume of textiles was 11.26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 9.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.9%; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 117.74 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The export volume of clothing was 11 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 16.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.6%; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 126.2 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [36].

采收尾声，内棉成本支撑转入供需矛盾 联系电话： 0531-688808771 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 姓名：陈 乔 从业资格号：F0310227 交易咨询从业证书号 ：Z0015805 2 0 2 5 -1 1-9 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 一 市场行情概述 本周国内外重要信息 | | 对棉市的影响 | 国际消息 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 利空利多并存 | 美国政府"停摆"仍持续中；美国农业部(USDA)的全国农业统计服务局(NASS)上周五表示，将在11月份发布几份主要的农 业报告 | | | 利多 | 中美关税贸易磋商：延续暂停对等关税展期一年，扩大农产品贸易 | | | 中性 | 中国物流与采购联合会发布，2025年10月份全球制造业PMI为49.7%，与上月持平，连续8个月运行在49%-50%的区间内。1- 10月，全球制造业PMI均值为49.6%，较去年同期上升0.3个百分点，但仍低于2019年同期水平。 | | 重要 | 中性利多 | 5日，美国联邦最高法院就特朗普政府关税政策的合法性举行听证会，听取相关辩论。诉讼核心问题包括特朗普政府援引 197 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View - The cotton market currently has support below and pressure above. There is a continuous supply of new cotton, but yarn mills are actively replenishing their stocks. In the long - term, policies and weather are the key factors. The recommended strategies are to conduct reverse arbitrage on the January - May spread when prices are high and to lay out long positions for distant - month contracts when prices are low [4]. 3. Data Summary Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 4 was 13535, down 65 (-0.48%) from November 3; CF05 was 13555, down 60 (-0.44%); CF01 - 05 was -20, down 5 from the previous day [3]. Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang, the price on November 4 was 14640, down 16 (-0.11%); in Henan, it was 14890, down 18 (-0.12%); in Shandong, it was 14873, down 19 (-0.13%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1105, up 49 [3]. Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures (CY) on November 4 was 19795, down 125 (-0.63%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index remained unchanged at 20520 [3]. US Cotton Spot - US cotton spot CT was 66 (USD/磅), unchanged; the arrival price was 75.50, up 0.2 (0.27%); 1% quota delivery price was 13209, up 34 (0.26%); sliding - scale duty delivery price was 14098, up 11 (0.08%) [3]. Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6260, down 60; yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 889, down 23; the spot internal - external spread was 1664, down 53 [3][4].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Cuibing [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 1.54%. The price of the US cotton December contract fell, with a weekly decline of about 0.56%. The price of the cotton yarn 2601 futures contract rose by about 1.75% [6][10][20] - In the domestic market, the supply side shows that Xinjiang cotton has entered the large - scale harvesting stage, with the progress over 50% and faster than the same period last year. The purchase price of seed cotton first fell and then rose, and the processing cost of ginning mills increased slightly. The acquisition of inland cotton was slow due to continuous rainfall. On the demand side, the demand of downstream textile enterprises was relatively weak, and the "Silver October" replenishment did not improve significantly. The impact of trade situation on the market needs to be concerned. Currently, new cotton is on the market, and the upside of cotton prices is limited in the short term due to hedging pressure [6] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract in the short term. Future trading should pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 1.54% [6] - **Market Outlook**: In the domestic market, the supply side has different situations in Xinjiang and inland. The demand side is weak. New cotton is on the market, and the short - term upside of cotton prices is limited [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract in the short term [7] - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell by about 0.56% this week. The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose by about 1.54%, and the cotton yarn 2601 futures contract rose by about 1.75% [10][20] - **Net Positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 107,552 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 16 lots [26] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,503, and that of cotton yarn futures was 6 [32] **Spot Market** - **Cotton Spot Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,803 yuan/ton [39] - **Cotton Yarn Spot Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,500 yuan/ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,690 yuan/ton, and CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,600 yuan/ton [48] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Price**: As of October 23, the imported cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton from last week; the imported cotton price with quota was 13,004 yuan/ton, up 153 yuan/ton from last week. The imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index) for different varieties also had corresponding prices [54] - **Imported Cotton Profit**: As of October 23, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 804 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,780 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from last week [57] - **Price Spreads**: This week, the price spread between Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 contracts was 0 yuan/ton, and the price spread between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,697 yuan/ton. The basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract was + 1,263 yuan/ton; the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn 2601 futures contract was 690 yuan/ton [35][44] 3. Industry Situation **Supply Side** - **Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of September 30, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons. At the end of August, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises decreased slightly, with an inventory of 892,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous month [62] - **Imported Cotton Volume**: In September 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.6%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imported cotton volume was 690,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.57 million tons or 69.50%. In September 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [68] **Demand Side** - **Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month; the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days, a decrease of 2.3 days from the previous month [71] - **Textile and Garment Exports**: In September 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. Among them, textile exports were 11.966 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.41% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%; clothing exports were 12.453 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.97% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.96% [76] - **Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 670.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.95%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.2% [80] 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week was presented, but no specific data was given [81] - **Stock Market**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development was shown, but no specific analysis was provided [84]

Core Insights - The integration of futures markets into the cotton industry is transforming traditional agriculture into a modern financial ecosystem, enhancing risk management and accelerating industrial upgrades [1][8]. Group 1: Company Overview - Xinjiang Guannong Co., Ltd. (Guannong) has established a robust production network with an annual processing capacity of 130,000 tons of cotton, supported by 13 ginning factories and 14 production lines [2]. - Guannong's logistics hub, Guannong Huijin, has become a "super warehouse" with a storage capacity of 1.1 million tons, ranking first in both cotton storage and futures delivery in China in 2023 [2][8]. Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - Guannong has developed a comprehensive hedging system across the entire supply chain, utilizing futures contracts to protect against price volatility and employing innovative tools like basis trading and options to manage risks effectively [4][6]. - The company successfully hedged 143,000 tons of cotton in 2024, demonstrating the effectiveness of its risk management strategies in maintaining profit margins despite market fluctuations [4]. Group 3: Industry Innovations - The introduction of basis trading has allowed for more flexible pricing mechanisms, enabling buyers to choose futures prices based on market conditions, thus enhancing trading activity [7]. - The collaboration between Guannong and Heze Hongyi Industrial Development Co., Ltd. (Hongyi) showcases the importance of standardized systems in managing risks and facilitating efficient futures transactions in the cotton market [6][8]. Group 4: Future Developments - Guannong plans to expand its service platform to integrate delivery, trading, and supply chain finance, aiming to enhance the scale of warehouse receipt pledges and explore new models for industry integration [7]. - The ongoing reforms in the futures market, including adjustments to delivery standards and the introduction of new hedging tools, are expected to strengthen the position of Xinjiang's cotton industry [8].

Core Insights - The cotton industry is crucial for national economy and livelihood, requiring a comprehensive approach to develop a high-quality industry chain [1][4] - China's cotton production is expected to reach its highest level since 2013 by 2025 due to favorable weather and effective management practices [1] - The cotton industry has undergone significant market reforms since 1998, leading to a well-integrated domestic and international market [2] Industry Development - The cotton industry faces challenges such as inconsistent quality, lack of strong brands, and the need for upgraded machinery [2] - Xinjiang accounts for 90% of China's cotton production, with yields significantly higher than the global average due to technological advancements [2] - The cotton supply chain is tightly linked, with prices influenced by various factors including climate and trade volumes [2] Quality Improvement - Future development of the cotton industry will focus on quality over quantity, emphasizing branding, standardization, and smart technology [3] - New policies introduced in April 2023 prioritize quality in cotton production, indicating a shift towards quality-driven practices [3] - Establishing a mechanism that connects the interests of cotton growers and processing enterprises is essential for improving cotton quality [3] Comprehensive Strategy - A full industry chain model is necessary for high-quality development, including research innovation, quality planting models, and regional branding [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton is "Bearish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry has a strong consensus on a bearish outlook for the future. In the fourth quarter, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, supply pressure and market sentiment will be concentratedly released. The futures price may fall below 13,000 yuan/ton, with the low point possibly occurring in November. After the release of negative factors, downstream restocking will help stabilize the market. In the long - term, the fourth quarter may be the period with the greatest domestic pressure, and the market in the next year is generally cautiously optimistic [5][30][36] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Purpose - To understand the production, cost, acquisition, consumption, inventory, and industry sentiment of cotton in Xinjiang, the researcher participated in the "2025 Autumn Xinjiang Cotton 'Full - industry Chain + Full - domain' In - depth Research" from September 7th to 19th. The research objects included cotton farmers, ginning factories, textile enterprises, and warehousing and logistics enterprises, mainly through enterprise discussions and on - site field inspections [14] 3.2 Research Summary - **New cotton production increase**: The expectation of new cotton production increase is strong, and the production forecast has been raised. The estimated production of Xinjiang cotton this year is between 730 - 780 tons, with a high probability of reaching 750 tons. The planting area has increased by 300 - 400 million mu (7% - 10%), and the average yield per mu has increased by 30 - 50 kg (5% - 10%) [17][18] - **New cotton quality**: The new cotton quality is expected to improve year - on - year. Although the lint percentage in some southern Xinjiang areas may decline, the overall quality of cotton in both southern and northern Xinjiang is better than last year [19] - **Opening time**: The opening time of cotton acquisition in southern and northern Xinjiang is close, expected to be concentrated around September 25th to the end of September, later than the previous market expectation but earlier than last year [20] - **Planting cost and income**: The planting cost has increased slightly year - on - year. The cost of leased land is about 3,000 yuan/mu, and the cost of self - owned land is about 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/ton. The break - even yield per mu for leased land is 400 - 410 kg [21] - **Cottonseed price**: The cottonseed price has increased year - on - year. The pre - sale price in southern Xinjiang is 2.3 - 2.35 yuan/kg, and in northern Xinjiang is about 2.2 yuan/kg. During the peak acquisition period, the price may drop to 2.1 - 2.2 yuan/kg, still higher than last year [22] - **Ginning factory**: Ginning factories are cautious in acquisition. In northern Xinjiang, due to years of losses, they have lost the ability and impulse to rush for cotton, and the over - capacity situation has been reversed [23][24] - **Cotton farmers**: Cotton farmers have low expectations for the cotton price, with a psychological expectation of 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and their reluctance to sell has weakened [25] - **Warehousing inventory**: The inventory of old cotton in Xinjiang's warehousing enterprises is extremely low, while the industrial inventory of cotton spinning enterprises is relatively high, which can be connected to the large - scale listing of new cotton. However, some inland textile enterprises have tight inventories, and the shortage of high - quality cotton is prominent [26] - **New cotton pre - sale**: The pre - sale volume of Xinjiang cotton is large, about 150 tons. The pre - sale basis is high, but the actual execution rate is uncertain [27] - **Cotton spinning enterprises**: Xinjiang's cotton spinning enterprises have sufficient orders but shrinking profit margins. The growth of cotton spinning capacity in Xinjiang will enter a bottleneck period [28] 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - **Short - term**: In the fourth quarter, due to the large - scale listing of new cotton, the supply pressure and market sentiment will be concentratedly released. The futures price may fall below 13,000 yuan/ton, with the low point possibly in November. It is not recommended to short after the price falls below 13,000 yuan/ton due to the poor risk - return ratio [5][35][36] - **Long - term**: After the release of negative factors, downstream restocking will help stabilize the market. The overall market in the next year is cautiously optimistic [5][36] 3.4 Research Content 3.4.1 September 8th - Kashgar Region, Shache County - **Kashgar Youmian Experimental Base**: It promotes the modernization of the cotton industry. The expected yield per mu of the "Kashgar Youmian" demonstration field in 2025 is 630 kg, a year - on - year increase of more than 50% [41] - **Color Cotton Planting and Research Base**: It uses intelligent agriculture to increase yield. The current yield per mu is about 480 kg, and the lint percentage is 35% - 36% [41] - **Shache County Cotton Industry Company**: The planting area has increased from 800,000 mu last year to 1.1 million mu this year, and the yield per mu is expected to be higher than last year. The pre - sale price of cottonseed is 2.3 yuan/kg, and the expected acquisition price of hand - picked cotton for spinning is below 7 yuan/kg [40][43] - **DW Group Xinjiang Shache Industrial Park Enterprise**: It has a total planned capacity of 4 - 5 million spindles. It only produces one variety, 32s, with high production efficiency. It uses cotton with double 29 indicators, mainly from southern Xinjiang, and has a good profit [45][46][48] 3.4.2 September 9th - Bachu → Tumushuke - **Bachu County Industrial Park Cotton - related Enterprise Symposium**: Bachu's cotton - spinning industry has developed rapidly. The planting area in 2025 is 1.66 million mu, and the yield per mu is expected to increase to 410 - 420 kg. The total inventory of three warehouses is only 160,000 tons. The current cottonseed price is about 2.4 yuan/kg, and the expected acquisition price is 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg [52][61] - **Bachu County Delivery Warehouse**: Some factories in Kashgar are purchasing hand - picked cotton for wadding. The expected production in Kashgar this year is 200,000 tons more than last year, but the lint percentage may be one point lower. The current inventory is 38,000 tons, much lower than last year [62][63] - **A Division's Enterprise Group Symposium**: The cotton planting area this year is 1.08 million mu, slightly increasing. The expected yield per mu has a small increase. The lint percentage may be 1 - 2 points lower, but the quality indicators are better than last year. The expected acquisition price of hand - picked cotton for wadding is 16,200 - 16,500 yuan/ton [67][68] 3.4.3 September 10th - Tumushuke → Alar - **A State - owned Textile Enterprise under a Division**: It has a current spinning capacity of 400,000 spindles, producing 24S and high - end yarns. The inventory of cotton yarn is about 1,000 tons, mainly sold in Xinjiang. The processing cost of 60s yarn is about 7,200 yuan, and the production profit is negative after including depreciation and financial costs [72][74][76] - **A Division's Enterprise Group**: The cotton planting area in the division is stable at 2 million mu, and the expected yield per mu is 460 - 470 kg. The expected acquisition price of seed cotton is about 6 yuan/kg. The enterprise is conservative in acquisition and uses hedging strategies. It is optimistic about the market next year [78][82][85] 3.4.4 September 11th - Alar → Shaya → Xinhe - **Alar Economic Development Zone Symposium**: The surrounding textile mills in Alar are operating well, but the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is not obvious. The current textile capacity in Xinjiang is about 34 million spindles. The "Bing 9 Articles" policy provides subsidies for building factories and equipment in southern Xinjiang's four divisions [86][89] - **Shaya Cotton Industry Company**: The planting area in Shaya is 1.85 million mu, and the yield per mu is expected to be over 500 kg. The current price of cottonseed is 2.4 yuan/kg, and the pre - sale price is 2.3 yuan/kg. The enterprise is cautious in acquisition and follows large factories [95][96][98] - **Xinhe Cotton Industry Group Symposium**: The enterprise is a leading enterprise in Aksu. It believes that the acquisition price of seed cotton above 6.5 yuan/kg is risky, and it may fall below 6 yuan/kg in November [100][103] 3.4.5 September 12th - Tiemenguan → Korla - **Tiemenguan Textile Enterprise**: It will form a complete industrial chain from cotton to clothing. The current order volume is about 2,100 tons, and the inventory is about 560 tons. The enterprise uses more southern Xinjiang cotton, and the acquisition price may be slightly higher this year. The yarn market has limited downward space but lacks upward momentum [112][114][122]