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宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2026年1月16日):宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20260116
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 02:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term, with short - term shocks and a medium - term strong trend, and an intraday slightly strong trend. Copper is also expected to be strong in the long - term, with short - term shocks, a medium - term strong trend, and an intraday slightly weak trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, New York gold oscillated narrowly around $4,600, and Shanghai gold oscillated above 1,030 yuan. Since this week, New York silver has risen by about 14%, while New York gold has only risen by about 2%, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly to around 50, a 14 - year low [3]. - **Core Logic**: The significant decline in the gold - silver ratio will likely prompt arbitrage funds to flow into gold. The short - term sentiment in the precious metal market is high, especially in the silver market, which can be used as a wind vane. The short - term capital liquidation intention is strong, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $4,600 mark of New York gold [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, the copper price rebounded after reaching the bottom, and the trading volume decreased slightly. Since this week, with the continuous rise in silver prices, the rise in copper prices has slowed down significantly, and the trading volume of Shanghai copper has hovered around 700,000 contracts [4]. - **Core Logic**: The cooling of the macro - atmosphere and the decline in silver prices have led to a decline in copper prices, and the short - term long - position liquidation intention is strong. At the industrial level, after the expiration of the 01 contract, the near - month spread has weakened significantly, electrolytic copper has continued to accumulate inventory, and the downstream industry is watching [4].