Core Viewpoint - The European luxury goods industry is facing significant challenges due to currency fluctuations and tariff policies, leading to a decline in stock prices for major luxury groups and a slowdown in market growth [3][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major luxury groups such as LVMH, Hermès, Richemont, and Kering have seen stock price declines of 26.31%, 17.98%, 19.84%, and 13.33% respectively over the past six months [3]. - The MSCI Europe Textile, Apparel, and Luxury Goods Total Return Index has dropped 17% year-to-date, underperforming the broader market by 27% [3]. - NDR's report indicates that the luxury goods sector's growth is slowing, partly due to the fading benefits of favorable exchange rates and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global consumer confidence [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Results - LVMH reported a 4% decline in revenue and a 22% drop in net profit for the first half of the year, with recurring operating profit down 15% [7]. - Kering's second-quarter sales fell 15% to €3.7 billion, with Gucci's sales down 25% to €1.46 billion [7]. - Hermès experienced an 8% sales growth in the first half, significantly lower than the 15% growth reported in the previous year [7]. Group 3: Structural Challenges - The luxury goods sector is facing deeper structural challenges, including weak consumer confidence and brand value dilution, leading to a loss of approximately 50 million consumers over the past two years [11][12]. - The Z generation has seen a 7% decline in sales, equating to a loss of $5.7 billion in consumption, marking the largest drop among all generations [11]. - High-net-worth individuals are becoming more discerning in their luxury purchases, focusing on value and personalized services [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Bernstein has revised its global luxury goods revenue growth forecast for 2025 from an increase of 5% to a decrease of 2% [12]. - UBS estimates that luxury brands have increased prices by an average of 33% from 2019 to 2023, which may have overstretched market tolerance [12]. - Following a trade agreement between the U.S. and Europe, a 15% baseline tariff on luxury goods imported from Europe is expected to raise prices in the U.S. by an average of 2% and globally by about 1% [12].

Core Viewpoint - Gucci is closing its outlet store in Bicester Shanghai Village on June 2, following the closure of two other stores in Shanghai, indicating a strategic shift in response to declining performance in the Chinese market [1][3]. Group 1: Store Closures and Performance - Since the second half of last year, Gucci has accelerated store closures in China, shutting down four stores in Fuzhou, Dalian, Shenyang, and Taiyuan, as part of a broader strategy to enhance brand positioning and reduce reliance on outlet sales [3]. - Kering Group's latest financial report shows a 14% decline in revenue for Q1 2025, totaling €3.883 billion, with a 25% drop in the Asia-Pacific market and 13% declines in Europe and North America [3][8]. - Gucci's revenue for Q1 2025 was €1.57 billion, marking a 25% decline in comparable sales, the lowest quarterly performance in recent years [8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Brand Strategy - The shift towards outlet stores has created a disparity between the performance of outlet and full-price stores, leading Gucci to reduce its dependence on discount channels and focus on brand value and full-price sales [4][5]. - The luxury market is facing overall growth slowdown, with Bernstein downgrading the global luxury goods growth forecast for 2025 from +5% to -2% [8]. - Competitors like Burberry are also adjusting their strategies to stabilize their pricing structures, with some brands reducing prices on select products by over 20% [7]. Group 3: Financial Challenges and Future Outlook - Kering Group's net debt remains above €10 billion, making it the most financially vulnerable among the four major luxury goods groups [10]. - The company has been selling properties to alleviate financial pressure, including the sale of The Mall Luxury Outlets for a net gain of €350 million and a recent bond issuance of €750 million [10]. - The appointment of new creative director Demna Gvasalia in July is anticipated to bring changes, but the company is expected to remain in a challenging period [10].