他补充道："2026年，美国与中国市场的增长将放缓，欧洲及德国市场的前景同样不容乐观。这些因素 都将反映在公司2025年与2026年的经营业绩中。" 博世首席执行官Stefan Hartung在接受采访时表示，受此影响，博世2025年税前利润预计将大幅低于目 标值，且较本已表现疲弱的2024年进一步下滑。 Hartung指出："消费者对涨价的接受度正在下降。" 智通财经APP获悉，德国汽车零部件供应商博世首席执行官周四接受采访时表示，受关税政策冲击以及 经济增长疲软拖累消费支出的双重影响，公司预计2025年盈利将大幅下滑，未来一年的经营形势依旧严 峻。 博世还计划裁员约2.2万人，并称高额关税成本与裁员安置补偿金的压力将持续至2026年。当前，德国 本土汽车行业增速放缓，叠加海外市场竞争加剧，德国汽车零部件供应商正面临严峻挑战。 Hartung还称，博世要到2027年之后，才能实现运营利润率不低于7%的长期目标。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European luxury goods industry is facing significant challenges due to currency fluctuations and tariff policies, leading to a decline in stock prices for major luxury groups and a slowdown in market growth [3][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major luxury groups such as LVMH, Hermès, Richemont, and Kering have seen stock price declines of 26.31%, 17.98%, 19.84%, and 13.33% respectively over the past six months [3]. - The MSCI Europe Textile, Apparel, and Luxury Goods Total Return Index has dropped 17% year-to-date, underperforming the broader market by 27% [3]. - NDR's report indicates that the luxury goods sector's growth is slowing, partly due to the fading benefits of favorable exchange rates and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global consumer confidence [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Results - LVMH reported a 4% decline in revenue and a 22% drop in net profit for the first half of the year, with recurring operating profit down 15% [7]. - Kering's second-quarter sales fell 15% to €3.7 billion, with Gucci's sales down 25% to €1.46 billion [7]. - Hermès experienced an 8% sales growth in the first half, significantly lower than the 15% growth reported in the previous year [7]. Group 3: Structural Challenges - The luxury goods sector is facing deeper structural challenges, including weak consumer confidence and brand value dilution, leading to a loss of approximately 50 million consumers over the past two years [11][12]. - The Z generation has seen a 7% decline in sales, equating to a loss of $5.7 billion in consumption, marking the largest drop among all generations [11]. - High-net-worth individuals are becoming more discerning in their luxury purchases, focusing on value and personalized services [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Bernstein has revised its global luxury goods revenue growth forecast for 2025 from an increase of 5% to a decrease of 2% [12]. - UBS estimates that luxury brands have increased prices by an average of 33% from 2019 to 2023, which may have overstretched market tolerance [12]. - Following a trade agreement between the U.S. and Europe, a 15% baseline tariff on luxury goods imported from Europe is expected to raise prices in the U.S. by an average of 2% and globally by about 1% [12].

Group 1 - Amazon's recent Prime Day event achieved record sales, with total sales expected to reach $23.8 billion, a 28.4% increase compared to the previous year [1][3] - The event was extended to four days, from July 8 to July 11, which is unprecedented compared to previous years that lasted only 1-2 days [1][3] - The extension of the sales period is a strategic response to the impact of U.S. government tariff policies, which have increased the cost of imported goods and suppressed consumer purchasing power [3] Group 2 - Essential back-to-school items, such as discounted clothing, electronics, and school supplies, drove significant sales during the event, indicating strong demand from parents and students [3] - The strong sales growth reflects the resilience of American consumers amid high inflation and tariff pressures, showcasing the necessity for retailers to adopt flexible strategies to mitigate policy risks [3] - Amazon's four-day event may serve as a critical reference for future retail strategies in response to long-term tariff impacts [3]