Core Insights - The current earnings season for European luxury goods stocks highlights a widening gap between winners and losers in the industry [1] - Burberry Group reported strong performance, with its stock price surging by 9%, while Richemont's sales exceeded expectations [1] - LVMH, Kering, and Salvatore Ferragamo face a bleak outlook, with potential further declines in stock prices if their sales fall short of already weak expectations [1] Industry Performance - The luxury goods sector is experiencing significant divergence, exemplified by the contrast between LVMH and Hermes [4] - Analysts predict a 7.8% decline in LVMH's core fashion and leather goods sales for Q2, while Hermes is expected to see a 12% increase in its leather goods revenue [4] - LVMH's stock has lost about half its market value over the past two years due to concerns over weak demand in the Chinese market, while Hermes has seen a 160% increase in stock price since the end of 2020 [4] Market Dynamics - Pricing power is crucial in the current economic environment, with some brands not performing as strongly as previously thought [6] - The industry is experiencing a stark contrast to the boom period from 2021 to 2023, where luxury brands thrived post-pandemic [6] - Investors are now focusing on brands that can consistently attract consumers, leading to sell-offs of less appealing stocks [6] Notable Winners - Burberry's stock has risen over 30% this year, attributed to its transformation plan and successful outdoor apparel offerings [8] - Despite some stocks declining significantly, the overall valuation of luxury goods remains high, with an average expected P/E ratio of 27, representing an 85% premium over the broader market [8] Future Outlook - The luxury goods industry is exposed to tariff impacts and a weakening dollar, leading to a challenging outlook [10] - Analysts maintain a cautious stance on the sector, suggesting a low allocation to luxury stocks [10]

Core Viewpoint - The luxury goods industry is expected to show significant polarization in performance by Q2 2025, with an overall decline in organic sales driven by major players like LVMH [1][2] Industry Summary - The global luxury goods market is projected to decline by 3% in organic sales in Q2 2025, worsening from a 1% decline in Q1 2025 [1] - Weak currency exchange rates have diminished the purchasing power of tourists from the US and China, leading to a downturn in travel-related sales [1] - The US market is experiencing a divided demand landscape, with consumer confidence suppressed by tariff concerns since February [1] Company Performance Summary - Kering is expected to see a decline of 15%, while Brunello Cucinelli anticipates a growth of 10% in the same period [2] - Brands like Hermès, Pandora, Burberry, and Hugo Boss are projected to achieve accelerated growth compared to their peers [2] - Richemont's organic sales are expected to remain stable, but market expectations for its EPS from 2026 to 2028 may be overly optimistic [2] Stock Ratings and Projections - Burberry is rated "Outperform" with a target price of €1,370, indicating a 37% upside potential [3] - Hermès is also rated "Outperform" with a target price of €2,880, reflecting a 27% upside [3] - Brunello Cucinelli holds a "Neutral" rating with a target price of €115, suggesting a 15% upside [3] - Hugo Boss is rated "Underperform" with a target price of €32, indicating a 14% downside [3]