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海澜之家(600398):男装赛道佼佼者,业务突围打造零售平台
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-06-19 10:52
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target market capitalization of 430 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE of 15 times for 2026, indicating an upside potential of over 20% from the current price [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the mass apparel market, particularly in men's clothing, with a robust main business and promising growth in new retail management initiatives such as JD Outlet and FCC [1][14]. - The main brand, HLA, is positioned in the mass market, focusing on quality and cost-effectiveness, with a projected revenue growth of 3% to 165.3 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [1][3]. - The company has successfully expanded its retail capabilities through innovative business models, particularly in the JD Outlet segment, which is expected to see rapid growth [2][15]. Summary by Sections Company Fundamentals - The company has transitioned from being primarily a men's clothing brand to a broader retail platform, with significant growth in new business areas [14][15]. - The main brand, HLA, has maintained a strong market position, with revenue expected to reach 153 billion yuan in 2024, despite a challenging consumer environment [20][23]. Men's Clothing Business - The men's clothing sector has seen a stabilization in demand, with the company increasing its market share due to improved competitive dynamics [22][23]. - HLA's product offerings emphasize high cost-performance ratios, appealing to a rational consumer base [24][27]. New Business Initiatives - The JD Outlet business is projected to expand significantly, with net profits expected to grow from 1.67 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.77 billion yuan in 2027 [2][3]. - The FCC business, which includes exclusive Adidas products, is also anticipated to contribute positively to the company's profitability, with net profits expected to reach 1.35 billion yuan by 2027 [3][15]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 222.7 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 264.6 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.1% [3][4]. - The projected net profit for the parent company is expected to increase from 25.4 billion yuan in 2025 to 32.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][4]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 85% from 2021 to 2024, making it an attractive option for income-focused investors [3][14].