公司点评 | 海澜之家 主品牌环比改善，奥莱新业态持续拓店 核心数据 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 21,528 | 20,957 | 22,295 | 24,555 | 27,090 | | 增长率 | 16.0% | -2.7% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | | 归母净利润 (百万元) | 2,952 | 2,159 | 2,421 | 2,700 | 2,947 | | 增长率 | 37.0% | -26.9% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.1% | | 每股收益（EPS） | 0.61 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.61 | | 市盈率（P/E） | 10.8 | 14.7 | 13.1 | 11.8 | 10.8 | | 市净率（P/B） | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 数据来源：公司财务报表，西部证券研发中心 1 | 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company's main brand is under pressure, but the direct sales channel is expanding effectively. The revenue from the main brand, Hai Lan Zhi Jia, decreased by 5.86%, while the revenue from direct sales increased by 17.15% [6]. - The company is actively expanding its new retail business and optimizing its offline store layout, with a significant increase in the number of direct stores [6]. - The overall gross margin improved to 46.35%, an increase of 1.83 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of direct sales [6]. - The company is also focusing on expanding its sports and outlet business, with a notable increase in overseas market revenue, which grew by 27.42% year-on-year [6]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 20,957 million yuan in 2024 to 26,086 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.2% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,159 million yuan in 2024 to 3,001 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 12.6% in 2027 [2]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.45 yuan in 2024 to 0.62 yuan in 2027, indicating a positive trend in earnings per share [2]. Financial Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11,566 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.73%, while the net profit decreased by 3.42% to 1,580 million yuan [6]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities is expected to improve significantly, reaching 3,478.60 million yuan in 2025 [8]. - The overall financial ratios indicate a stable performance, with a projected return on equity (ROE) increasing from 12.69% in 2024 to 16.47% in 2027 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of HLA (海澜之家) shows slight revenue growth but declining net profit, indicating challenges in attracting male consumers and the need for effective brand renewal strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - HLA reported a revenue of 11.566 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.42% to 1.580 billion yuan, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 3.83% to 1.566 billion yuan [1]. - The main brand, HLA, generated 8.395 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 5.86%, accounting for 72.58% of total revenue [1]. Business Segments - The group has diversified into women's wear, children's wear, and sports brands, but these segments have not yet formed a significant second growth curve [2]. - The group’s custom group purchase business achieved 1.343 billion yuan in revenue, a growth of 23.7%, while other brands generated 1.5 billion yuan, up 65.57% [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the group increased by 0.56 percentage points to 46.4%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 13.7% [3]. - The gross margin for the custom group purchase business was 40.36%, down 3.25 percentage points, and for other brands, it was 49.07%, down 9.58 percentage points [3]. Market Challenges - The men's apparel sector is facing growth pressures, with HLA's low revenue growth reflecting broader industry challenges, including rapid brand turnover and competition from fast fashion and cross-border e-commerce [4]. - Other men's apparel companies, such as Seven Wolves and Baoxini, are also experiencing revenue and profit declines, indicating a sector-wide issue [5][6]. Strategic Initiatives - HLA is focusing on expanding into the sports sector, with 529 authorized Adidas stores and ongoing partnerships with brands like HEAD [6][7]. - The company is developing a new "urban outlet" model in collaboration with JD.com, with 23 stores established in various provinces [7]. - HLA is also pushing for international expansion, with plans to enter markets in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, and has opened 111 overseas stores, generating 206 million yuan in revenue, a 27.42% increase year-on-year [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue slowdown primarily due to online sales decline, influenced by a profit protection strategy. The adjustment of the Spobz strategy also contributed to the decrease in net profit [2][3] - The company is expanding its international presence while maintaining growth in established markets like Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore, with plans to open stores in Sydney, Australia [3] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.566 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.73%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.580 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.42% [2] - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.379 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.59%, but net profit decreased by 13.92% to 645 million yuan [2] - The gross profit margin improved to 46.4% in H1 2025, up by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to 13.7%, down by 0.7 percentage points [5] Brand and Channel Analysis - The main brand's revenue in H1 2025 was 8.395 billion yuan, a decline of 5.86% year-on-year, while other brands saw significant growth [3] - Direct sales revenue increased by 17.2% to 2.9 billion yuan in H1 2025, while online sales revenue decreased by 4.8% [3] - The company opened 23 new JD Outlet stores, contributing to the growth of its other brands [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that online sales, overseas markets, and the Spobz strategy will be long-term growth drivers, with projections indicating that online sales could match offline sales in the next 3-5 years [7] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with expected revenues of 21.13 billion yuan, 23.16 billion yuan, and 24.32 billion yuan respectively [7] Valuation Metrics - As of August 27, 2025, the closing price was 7.1 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 for 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target market capitalization of 430 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE of 15 times for 2026, indicating an upside potential of over 20% from the current price [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the mass apparel market, particularly in men's clothing, with a robust main business and promising growth in new retail management initiatives such as JD Outlet and FCC [1][14]. - The main brand, HLA, is positioned in the mass market, focusing on quality and cost-effectiveness, with a projected revenue growth of 3% to 165.3 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [1][3]. - The company has successfully expanded its retail capabilities through innovative business models, particularly in the JD Outlet segment, which is expected to see rapid growth [2][15]. Summary by Sections Company Fundamentals - The company has transitioned from being primarily a men's clothing brand to a broader retail platform, with significant growth in new business areas [14][15]. - The main brand, HLA, has maintained a strong market position, with revenue expected to reach 153 billion yuan in 2024, despite a challenging consumer environment [20][23]. Men's Clothing Business - The men's clothing sector has seen a stabilization in demand, with the company increasing its market share due to improved competitive dynamics [22][23]. - HLA's product offerings emphasize high cost-performance ratios, appealing to a rational consumer base [24][27]. New Business Initiatives - The JD Outlet business is projected to expand significantly, with net profits expected to grow from 1.67 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.77 billion yuan in 2027 [2][3]. - The FCC business, which includes exclusive Adidas products, is also anticipated to contribute positively to the company's profitability, with net profits expected to reach 1.35 billion yuan by 2027 [3][15]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 222.7 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 264.6 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.1% [3][4]. - The projected net profit for the parent company is expected to increase from 25.4 billion yuan in 2025 to 32.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][4]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 85% from 2021 to 2024, making it an attractive option for income-focused investors [3][14].

Core Viewpoint - The annual report of HLA Group highlights the challenges faced by the apparel industry in China during 2024, including sluggish consumer demand and increased competition, while also outlining the company's strategic initiatives and financial performance. Group 1: Company Overview - HLA Group is a major retail group in China specializing in apparel, with a focus on self-owned brands, international brand agency, and customized group purchases [12][13]. - The company operates several brands, including its main brand "HLA," women's brand "OVV," trendy brand "HLA JEANS," and children's brand "YeeHoO" [13][14]. Group 2: Industry Situation - The apparel industry in China faced a challenging economic environment in 2024, with retail sales of clothing reaching 1,071.62 billion yuan, a mere 0.1% increase year-on-year, significantly slowing down from the previous year's growth rate of 15.3% [5][6]. - Consumer preferences have shifted towards value, functionality, and sustainability, leading to increased pressure on traditional products [6][7]. - The market for men's clothing is characterized by intense competition, with a shift from scale expansion to value cultivation, impacting smaller brands [7][8]. - Women's clothing brands are focusing on quality, design, and brand culture, leading to a competitive landscape where innovation is crucial for survival [8]. - The sportswear segment is experiencing growth due to rising health awareness, but brands face challenges such as profit pressure and inventory issues [8][9]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.80 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 864.5 million yuan for the year, which represents 91.22% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4]. - The total cash dividend for 2024, including previous distributions, amounts to approximately 1.97 billion yuan [4]. Group 4: Business Model - HLA Group employs a "platform + brand" model for its operations, providing unified management services across its brands while allowing for independent brand operations [24][30]. - The company has established a logistics center in Jiangyin, equipped with advanced systems for efficient inventory management and supply chain integration [25][27]. - The sales channels include both offline and online platforms, with a focus on major urban centers and e-commerce platforms like Tmall and JD.com [30].