宏观研究 奶牛养殖行业分析及展望 奶牛养殖行业分析 中央一号文件首次提出"推进奶牛产业纾困"，生鲜 乳供求关系加快调整 文/刘博雅 摘要 近年来，生鲜乳产能及产量过剩叠加市场竞争加剧导致奶牛养殖市场出现供需失衡， 生鲜乳平均价格持续下降，奶牛养殖企业经营承压，2023 年以来，奶牛养殖企业整体盈 利情况欠佳。2025 年 2 月，中央一号文件发布，首次提出"推进奶牛产业纾困"，表明 了中央推动奶牛养殖业复苏的决心，同时为改善市场环境及养殖模式提出具体措施。本 文分析了我国奶牛养殖市场供需现状，选取较为有代表性的奶牛养殖企业，整理了其盈 利相关财务数据，并围绕中央一号文件对奶牛养殖业的影响进行了探讨。 正文 （一）奶牛养殖市场供需现状 近年来，生鲜乳产能及产量过剩叠加市场竞争加剧导致奶牛养殖市场出现供需失衡， 生鲜乳平均价格持续下降，奶牛养殖企业经营承压。 奶牛养殖业作为乳业的上游产业，是我国农业经济重要组成部分，与国民健康高度 相关。近年来，随着市场环境的变化和行业竞争的加剧，中国奶牛养殖业面临一定挑战， 具体来看，2022 年以来，生鲜乳平均价格呈持续下降趋势，根据 wind 统计数据显示， 截至 2025 ...

Supply and Demand Analysis - The fresh milk market has experienced a supply-demand imbalance due to overcapacity and increased competition, leading to a continuous decline in average prices[2] - As of February 20, 2025, the average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.10 CNY/kg, indicating a low operating status for dairy farming enterprises[3] - The number of dairy cows has been increasing, with stock levels rising from 10.43 million in 2020 to 11.61 million in 2022, contributing to overproduction[6] Financial Performance of Dairy Farms - The overall profitability of dairy farming enterprises has declined since 2023, with major companies like Modern Farming and China Shengmu reporting losses in 2024[12] - For instance, Modern Farming's net profit dropped from 10.19 million CNY in 2021 to -2.28 million CNY in the first half of 2024[13] - The financial data indicates that profit margins are under pressure, with gross profit margins for major companies like Modern Farming decreasing from 10.35% in 2021 to 4.21% in 2024[13] Market Competition and Structural Changes - The market has seen increased consolidation among large dairy companies, with the top five companies now holding over 60% market share, intensifying competition[7] - Smaller dairy enterprises are struggling to compete, leading to market exits or acquisitions by larger firms[7] Impact of Policy Changes - The Central Document No. 1, issued in February 2025, emphasizes the need to support the dairy industry, indicating government commitment to revitalize the sector[15] - Proposed measures include subsidies and support for integrated dairy farming and processing, which may help alleviate the financial pressures faced by dairy farmers[15] Future Outlook - With the implementation of supportive policies, the supply-demand relationship in the fresh milk market is expected to adjust, potentially stabilizing prices in the long term[16] - However, short-term demand for dairy products may remain low due to previous promotional activities reaching their limits[16]