原奶&肉牛产业近况交流 20260227 摘要 加工端对外部社会牧场收奶量下降，从高峰期单日 200 多吨降至约 150 吨，仅在节假日需求增加时收购。公司通过优化结构和提升单产，提高 自有牧场供奶占比，降低对外部奶源的依赖。 公司预计 2025 年整体存栏下降，但成母牛占比提升至 60%，后备牛降 至 40%。单产持续提升，305 天产奶量约 11,300 多公斤，从原来的约 9 吨提升至接近 11 吨，整体产量受存栏下降影响偏弱。 生鲜乳奶价由买方定价，年末确定基础价，年度内 1-6 月价格不变，7- 9 月上调约 0.02 元/公斤，之后回落。2026 年合同内奶价较 2025 年整 体低 0.02 元/公斤，分别为 3.02 元/公斤和 3.04 元/公斤。 外部散奶按牧场评级和乳品指标定价，基础价约 2.6 元/公斤，一级牧场 最高可达约 3.04 元/公斤。春节备货期间，小型乳企采购价最高可达约 3.0 元/公斤，优质大牧场通常不以散奶方式外卖。近两三年旺季散奶高 点波动不大，仅小幅上浮约 0.02—0.03 元/公斤。 行业不景气背景下，牧场倾向提高成母牛占比至约 60%，降低后备牛占 比至约 ...

北京商报讯（记者 孔文燮）2月27日，骑士乳业披露2025年度业绩公告称，2025年实现营业收入为13.22 亿元，上年同期为12.97亿元，同比上升1.93%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为5059万元，同比增 长757.49%。骑士乳业表示，业绩变动的主要原因为，报告期内，公司募投项目顺利结项投产，公司生 鲜乳销售量增加，营业收入、净利润随之增加。报告期内，受市场因素影响，生物性资产处置价格较上 年度增加，报告期内生物性资产处置损失减少。2025年投资损失较上年度大幅减少。 ...

摘要 国内原奶市场面临挑战，市场占比萎缩至 15%，70%牧场亏损，饲料 成本高企（占现金成本 60%-70%），2025 年青贮玉米价格上涨加剧 养殖户压力，预计 2026 年饲料价格保持平稳略增。 乳制品需求端边际改善，2025 年前三季度产量同比波动，国家出台促 消费政策有望提振信心。长期来看，中国乳制品消费潜力巨大，深加工 产能扩张将增加生鲜乳需求。 预计 2026 年原奶行业供需紧平衡，或迎拐点。进口大包粉影响有限， 价格高于国内生鲜乳，且全球主要出口国牛奶产量预计稳定，进口量不 会显著提升。 活牛和冻精进口量减少，国内上游出清和国际供应压力减轻，预示未来 供应趋紧。肉牛市场自 2025 年触底反弹，牛肉和肉牛价格分别上涨 11%和 10%。 肉牛养殖周期长，产能传导滞后，本轮肉牛上行周期明确，供需错配加 剧和上游出清将推动肉价上涨，前期亏损推动上游深度去化，为后续市 场提供支撑。 Q&A 2026 年原奶价格的趋势展望如何？ 2026 年原奶价格有望迎来拐点。首先，从供给端来看，国内上游的出清已经 持续多年，奶价自下跌以来已累计下降超过 30%，导致大量养殖场户亏损严重， 尤其是社会化牧场，其经营 ...

蒙牛（2319.HK）：战术性买入标的 1 月 29 日我们曾解读过蒙牛的战术性买入逻辑。 生鲜乳价格自 2021 年三季度达到历史峰值后持续下跌，至 2025 年 7 月跌幅达 30%，目前生鲜乳价格终于企稳， 且环比改善趋势明显。 生鲜乳价格自 2021 年三季度达到历史峰值后持续下跌，至 2025 年 7 月跌幅达 30%，目前生鲜乳价格终于企稳， 且环比改善趋势明显。 消费行业分析师 KevinYin对公司的看法转向乐观，认为春节前公司的风险收益比具备吸引力（春节期间需求较平 时增加 10%），且行业有望在 2026 年三季度复苏（摩根大通预测）。 我们给予蒙牛和伊利均为超配评级，目标价较当前股价均有 20% 的上涨空间，当前股价分别对应 2026 年市盈率 11 倍和 14 倍，预测两家公司今年调整后净利润分别同比增长 17% 和 6%，且两家公司的机构持仓比例均处于低 位。 消费行业分析师 KevinYin对公司的看法转向乐观，认为春节前公司的风险收益比具备吸引力（春节期间需求较平 时增加 10%），且行业有望在 20 蒙牛（2319.HK）：战术性买入标的 1 月 29 日我们曾解读过蒙牛的战术 ...

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage industry is expected to see improvements in supply and demand dynamics across multiple sub-sectors by 2026, with a clearer recovery trend in CPI, indicating sustained new consumption but with internal rotations. Traditional consumption sectors benefiting from CPI recovery are anticipated to experience bottom improvements, particularly in the mass consumer goods and liquor sectors [1] Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - The CPI turned positive for the first time in October 2025, showing a month-on-month improvement with November and December CPI at +0.7% and +0.8% respectively, while food CPI was +0.2% and +1.1% [1] - Fresh vegetable and fruit prices have seen significant increases, with November and December fresh vegetable CPI at +14.5% and +18.2%, and fresh fruit CPI at +0.7% and +4.4% [1] - The decline in prices for grains, edible oils, and livestock has narrowed, with November and December grain CPI at -0.4% and -0.3%, edible oil CPI at -1.2% and -1.0%, and livestock CPI at -6.6% and -6.1% [1] Group 2: Liquor Sector Insights - The price of Feitian Moutai has shown signs of recovery, with prices for whole boxes and individual bottles at 1710 and 1660 yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 30 yuan and 10 yuan since January 31 [2] - The demand for liquor is strong due to festive consumption, and the recent price drop has activated potential consumers, leading to improved sales [2] - Moutai's supply chain adjustments and channel reforms are effectively supporting the price stability of its products [2] Group 3: Dairy Industry Developments - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.04 yuan/kg as of January 29, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% but a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, indicating a strong bottoming signal [3] - The dairy price is expected to enter an upward trend in 2026 due to supply-side adjustments and improved demand driven by demographic policies and product upgrades [3] Group 4: Consumer Goods Price Movements - The frozen food sector is nearing a competitive bottom, with potential demand recovery in 2026 expected to drive fundamental improvements [4] - Leading company Anjijia has begun to recover some promotional policies, which may lead to profit recovery [4] - Three squirrels have raised the ex-factory prices of certain nut gift products, which may alleviate pressures from rising raw material and transportation costs, improving profitability [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, with a focus on investment opportunities related to CPI recovery [5] - CPI has shown a positive growth trend since October 2025, with food CPI also reflecting improvements [5] - The report highlights specific sectors such as liquor, dairy, and consumer goods that are poised for recovery [12][14][15] Summary by Sections Supply-Demand Relationship and CPI Recovery - PPI transmission combined with consumer recovery is likely to sustain the CPI improvement trend, with CPI growth recorded at +0.7% in November and +0.8% in December 2025 [5] - Food CPI showed a year-on-year increase of +0.2% in November and +1.1% in December, with fresh vegetable prices rising significantly [5][11] - The report anticipates that the CPI recovery will continue into 2026, driven by PPI improvements and supportive domestic demand policies [5] Sector-Specific Insights - **Liquor**: The price of Feitian Moutai has rebounded, with prices reaching 1710 RMB for whole boxes and 1660 RMB for individual bottles as of February 8, 2026, indicating strong demand during the Spring Festival [12][14] - **Dairy**: The average price of fresh milk has stabilized around 3.04 RMB per kilogram, with expectations for upward movement in 2026 due to supply adjustments and improved demand from demographic policies [14] - **Consumer Goods**: Prices for certain products, such as frozen foods and snacks, are beginning to recover, with companies like Anjijia adjusting promotional strategies to enhance profitability [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the consumer goods sector, including Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and others, as well as key players in the liquor sector like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu [21]

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 [TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 | [TAblE_G rADE] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-08 | 本周猪价小幅回落，优选成本领先的龙头猪企 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点： [分析师： TAblE_Author 钱浩] SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 SFC CE No. BND274 021-38003634 shqianhao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 郑颖欣 SAC 执证号：S0260520070001 021-38003632 zhengyingxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 高一岑 SAC 执证号：S0260525100002 021-38003780 gaoyicen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李雅琦 SAC 执证号：S0260524080006 021-68827265 liyaqi@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 07/25 09/2 ...

智通财经APP讯，西部牧业(300106.SZ)公告，公司2026年1月自产生鲜乳3076.65吨，同比上年减少 2.54%。 ...

智通财经APP讯，西部牧业(300106.SZ)公告，公司2026年1月自产生鲜乳3076.65吨，同比上年减少 2.54%。 ...

Core Insights - The performance forecasts for 2025 from 123 companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange indicate that 75 companies expect to be profitable, with over 60% showing positive earnings outlooks [1] - The strong internal momentum and vitality of innovative small and medium-sized enterprises are highlighted, reflecting the positive outcomes of cultivating new productive forces [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Hongyu Packaging anticipates a net profit of 17 million to 22 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 357.91% to 492.59% [1] - Knight Dairy expects a net profit of 41 million to 53 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year due to successful project completions and increased sales of fresh milk [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The performance forecasts indicate that some leading companies in niche sectors have begun to break through despite short-term macroeconomic pressures, with overall R&D investment continuing to grow [2] - The active trading environment on the Beijing Stock Exchange is noted, with hopes for an increase in the number of listed companies and the introduction of public funds and ETFs to balance stock and capital supply [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in companies with positive earnings forecasts and core technologies, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, new materials, and industrial software [3] - Emerging sectors aligned with national strategic directions, such as green energy, digital economy, and artificial intelligence, are highlighted as areas for investment focus [3] - The potential for valuation recovery and benefits from institutional reforms is emphasized, as market re-evaluates the investment value of solid companies in niche industries [3]