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中信建投:奶源仍过剩上游延续去化,关注下游需求变化
news flash· 2025-07-04 00:19
Core Viewpoint - Short-term pressure on fresh milk prices is expected due to seasonal demand decline and increased milk production, but a balance in milk supply and demand is anticipated in Q3 2025, leading to potential recovery in dairy company profitability [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Fresh milk prices are facing downward pressure as summer approaches, leading to a seasonal demand slump and a reduction in milk production due to increased cow prices [1] - Major dairy companies are optimizing their herd structure and inventory, while downstream players are enhancing deep processing of dairy products [1] - A balance in milk supply and demand is expected in Q3, with a stabilization of raw milk prices anticipated by 2025 [1] Group 2: Demand Trends - Demand for dairy products shows a preference for low-temperature products over room-temperature ones, indicating a potential for continued structural optimization within the dairy industry [1] - Local fertility subsidy policies are expected to have a positive impact on demand [1] Group 3: Channel Strategies - Dairy companies are increasing their presence in new retail channels such as membership supermarkets and instant retail [1] Group 4: Profitability Outlook - Leading dairy companies aim for stable yet reduced expense ratios this year, with expectations for improved profitability compared to the previous year [1]