Core Viewpoint - The article addresses the recent rumors regarding price increases of infant formula following the announcement of national childcare subsidies, clarifying that major companies in the dairy industry have not raised prices due to market conditions [3][4]. Industry Analysis - The domestic infant formula market is experiencing oversupply and intensified competition due to a continuous decline in newborn population, which does not support price increases [4][7]. - The total number of children aged 0-3 in China has decreased from 50.1 million in 2018 to 28.5 million in 2023, contributing to market contraction [7]. - Despite a slight rebound in birth rates in 2024, the overall downward trend in the market is expected to persist in the short term [8]. Company Responses - Major companies such as Yili (伊利股份), China Feihe (中国飞鹤), and Beingmate (贝因美) have publicly stated that they have not increased prices for their infant formula products [4][5]. - Beingmate specifically urged consumers not to believe or spread rumors about price hikes [4]. Market Trends - A survey indicated that approximately 70% of baby store owners reported no price increases in infant formula, while about 30% noted price adjustments unrelated to childcare subsidies, primarily due to promotional strategies [8]. - Since 2024, the infant formula industry has seen some sales recovery, attributed to both the rebound in newborn numbers and the restoration of market order after a prolonged price war among brands [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current oversupply in the infant formula market does not support price increases, despite rumors of price hikes following the announcement of national childcare subsidies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The domestic infant formula market is experiencing oversupply due to a continuous decline in the number of newborns, leading to intensified competition [1][3]. - The total number of children aged 0-3 in China has decreased from 50.1 million in 2018 to 28.5 million in 2023, contributing to market contraction [3]. - Approximately 70% of surveyed baby store owners reported that prices of infant formula have not increased, while about 30% noted price adjustments unrelated to childcare subsidies [3]. Group 2: Company Responses - Major companies such as Yili, China Feihe, and Beingmate have denied any price increases for their infant formula products, urging consumers not to believe in rumors [1]. - Beingmate stated on its investor interaction platform that all products have not seen price hikes and encouraged the public to refrain from spreading false information [1]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The infant formula industry is in a deep adjustment phase, with a slight recovery in sales observed in 2024, attributed to both a rebound in newborn numbers and the restoration of market order [4]. - Analysts indicate that the price stabilization in the infant formula market is a result of long-term strategic adjustments by companies, moving away from aggressive price competition [4].